State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

Once in a while the U.S. Champion does not want Skate America. Johnny Weir opted out after each of his three national titles because Skate America came too early in the season. He went to three Cup of Russia events instead (his favorite country anyway).

Alissa went to Skate Canada -- her lucky charm -- in the season after her first U.S. title. I am not sure if she requested Skate America or not that year.

R.D. said:

Via Twitter, Czisny is back on the ice. Not sure what level she is performing at, but she has recovered enough to begin skating again.



Honestly, I don't keep up with junior ladies. That sounds like a question for Sylvia.

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I think we heard Alissa was back on the ice a couple of days after Champs camp and that she is hoping to do a GP (later in the season).

If it is working out for her there is a chance she will be at Natls.

About juniors...Leah Keiser just won Gold this week at the JGP in Turley and landed all kinds of triples and 3x3.

Here it is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlRuLi7w108

Good news: I don't think there will be non-gushing over Gao's choice to go to Harvard
Bad news: mostly because no one expected very much of her anyway

Does Alissa need to do an international event to get a qualifying score for worlds, should she make the team?

dorispulaski said:

To put a different spin, (just for the sake of discussion)

Mirai may like Cup of China for the same reason Bobrova & Soloviev seem to like it: China's 3 ladies (and 3 ice dancers) are no competition. A lady or ice dancer wanting to medal and/or make GPF, would prefer it to SA, CoR, NHK. The events with a shallow ladies field for the host fed are CoC, TEB, and Skate Canada. So there's a pattern beginning to show. The Chinese men are on the weaker side in many years, too.

Plus Mirai still has relatives in Japan. While it is a long side trip from China to Japan, it's a lot shorter than California to Japan, so she can achieve two goals with one move.

http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00010220.htm

Her bio

2008 NHK & Skate America
2009 CoC & Skate Canada
2010 CoC & TEB
2011 TEB & Skate Canada
2012 CoC

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The flight is shorter from China to Japan and longer from California to Japan. In 2011, Mirai was at SCanada and CoC.

I had thought about the weaker field at different events, but China's ladies are on the upswing with Kexin Zhang and Zijun Li.
OTOH, the event can have all the strongest skaters such as TEB or rather the Trophee Die Bombard. With the french ladies as no competition, some of the strongest lady competitors have been there. I actually think that ISU did a very good job of balancing out the fields this year.

Mirai still deserves a 2nd GP. =3=

brightphoton said:

Good news: I don't think there will be non-gushing over Gao's choice to go to Harvard
Bad news: mostly because no one expected very much of her anyway

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I always liked her and so did silverlake. :yes:

In fact none other than Scott Hamilton called her "the future of US Skating " back at 2010 Natls.

It appears that being labeled "the future" is not a good thing for American ladies.

Mathman said:

Does Alissa need to do an international event to get a qualifying score for worlds, should she make the team?

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Alissa can use her score from last season to qualify. IIRC, qualifying scores are good for two seasons.

On a separate note, I still think Joelle Forte is deserving to be put on the ISP and potentially by substitute for SA or given Senior B's.

I remember being hyped up about her too. She shared Yuna's coach, and she and that new upstart Adam Rippon were poised to become the next US champs.

hwell:

God love him, but you can be sure if Scott Hamilton hypes you up, your career is toast.

I was at this so called "fluff competition" last week. The senior ladies had to skate both the short and long programs less than 8 hours apart. Rachael landed a triple flip in the warm up. She looked upset after the long program as she doubled the flip. Also fell and didn't do many spin features. I personally think she doesn't have time to train or the energy. She has a lot on her plate.

Courtney is skating on the JGP this year. She was 2nd at Lake Placid JGP and has a reasonable chance to make the JGPF or Jr Worlds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirai_Nagasu

Mirai's first full senior season was 2008-2009. In 2007-2008, she chose to skate juniors internationally. So she choose not to be on the GP at all. However, in that season, after skating junior internationally, she won US Seniors. She was never in a position to get the up & comers slot.

Therefore in the 2009-2010 season she went to Skate America.

And in 2009-2010, Flatt won US Nationals, so in 2010, she went to Skate America.

In 2010-2011, Alissa won US Nationals; Alissa went to Skate America. Neither Mirai nor Rachael went.

This year, Alissa is out, Ashley Wagner is US champion, and Rachael has been doing poorly enough to have no other assignments, and to not be viewed as a threat to the US champion at Skate America.

So during Mirai's senior international career, this is the first time Rachael has got an SA slot that Mirai might have wanted. However, if you think Mirai is much better than Rachael, then you also have to realize that Mirai is much more of a threat to Ashley.

Rachael gets these SA slots because
1. she has generally been viewed as innocuous to the reigning champion (less artistic, low PCS)
2. she does not seem to covet the 3 competitions which set you up more easily for the GPF.

Tonichelle said:

God love him, but you can be sure if Scott Hamilton hypes you up, your career is toast.

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In fact Christina was skating very well here......until Scott said " here comes her best jump"
Don't have to tell you what happened ....splat

This is 15 year old Christina at her senior Natls debut......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7liNIlGSGts&playnext=1&list=PL87DD583CE1780A68&feature=results_video

Polina is staying Junior this year. Some of her triple combos have been getting downgrades or unrotations in competition.

R.D. said:

Wagner: After what could be well described as a breakout season for Wagner last year, picking up a national title and a 4th place finish at worlds, expectations for her are likely higher than ever before. This season will be a huge test for her, as it will determine how she handles the pressure of being one of the top skaters in the world, and perhaps set her up for the Olympic season. It already seems like she is well-prepared, as she's got a killer SP that further improves upon last year (yes, the chatter you've been hearing on Twitter is true - I saw her debut at the Weiss show and this could be a big one if she performs it to spec). Wagner is typically a freeskater, meaning she shines in the FS, so if she can really bring the SP up to that same level, she will undoubtedly be the top American with a shot at a world medal. I think the biggest challenges for her will be to keep nerves under control, to remain healthy, and to avoid peaking too early.

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There's hope she will... but I'm not about to write her season one way or the other... I just hope - for her sanity's sake - that fans, media, and USFSA alike all give her the space to deal with her "sophmore year"...

Mrs. P said:

My main point is that Rachael is still well-regarded in the skating community. It's easy to misconstrue that she is an unpopular skater IN GENERAL ( as opposed to just these skating boards) because I think there is a disproportionate amount of people online who seem to dislike her skating and are much more outspoken about it. This idea that people are going to choose NOT to attend Skate America because Rachael is there instead of any of any other given U.S. Ladies skater is a bit of a stretch in my opinion.

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I tend to agree that Rachael is well regarded among the general skating community. The people I sat next to in San Jose went nuts over Rachael's FS at Nationals, cheering loundly, and they weren't from Stanford. She connects very well with the audience, maybe the best among current US seniors skaters. She loves to perform, and I believe loves to be in the spotlight. She would make a good show skater. However, her jumping skills have diminished, and I don't believe she will be in the top group of competitive COP skaters any longer. Since she loves the spotlight, the chance of her withdrawing From SA is very small, and the thought of her spot going to Nagasu would probably motivate her to compete at SA even more.

Appreciate your preview R.D. and agree with much of it. Wagner should be considered the frontrunner after a great finish last year. The USFSA may consider Agnes and Gold as frontrunners, but I believe it is wide open. Agnes faltered at 4CC and was beaten convincingly by Zhang. This is Gold's first year as a senior, and I am not yet willing to cede her a podium spot at Nats. Many believe Zhang was underscored at Nats last year, and with her podium at 4CC, she should be in the running for the world's team. Czisny is coming off an injury and is a wildcard at this point. Nagasu had an uncharacteristic bad year, but has a new coach and as much talent than anyone and more than most. I would not count her out. Flatt rises to the occassion at Nats, but I don't expect the rise to be as high this year as in the past.

Hey guys!

My apologies if this has been posted somewhere else already. I looked but couldn't find it, but I just found a short clip of the last minute or so of Ashley's free skate as done sometime in late July. I've never seen it before. It's hard to get a real impression of it from so far away, and at this point it is almost two months old... but at this point I'll take what I can get!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKEYE9Sbb8I

She's certainly hitting the accents in the music, and it looks like it will be a very sexy interpretation. Definitely a way to separate herself from the other US ladies. Of the ladies mentioned in this thread I don't think we see anyone really use sex appeal like she does here.

The speed also looks good from my untrained eye.

At this point in the year here's how I feel about the ladies:
Ashley looks to be putting herself in a league of her own if she's has anything to say about it. She knows how to talk the talk so I'm looking forward to seeing her deliver the goods.

I would say Gracie and Agnes definitely look to be getting a head start at challenging for that top spot. Because of Agnes' win I would say they're neck and neck right now, but I won't be surprised if Gracie starts to pull away as the season progresses.

In the next tier I'd put Mirai and Caroline. I'm REALLY interested to see what these two ladies do. I think the key word for both of them is power. They have the artistry, the spins, the lines. Right now I'd say they both look like their stock is rising. Mirai's throwing the double axel/triple toe combo in competition already this season (I think a good sign) and both her programs are stronger for me than what she had last season. I could see a real comeback for her. And Caroline is clearly on the comeback path. You know what, I'll put Rachael Flatt in this mix too. She clearly got her act together second semester of school. She found a formula that seemed to work for her. She seemed to be getting worse and worse since the olympics but maybe nationals fs was a sign of things to come.

Next tier I would put Christina and Alissa. I really have no idea how Christina Gao will fare while being at Harvard but as history has shone, going to ivy never seems to help a skater with competing. I'll be surprised if Alissa is ready to go for the grand prix, but I'm hopeful she can make a decent showing at nationals. I'll make an early prediction that she can make top 8 this year. I think if she really wants to make a statement she'll need a top 5 finish.

To make things interesting I'll also throw Vanessa in there. I wouldn't be surprised if she found herself ahead of Christina and Alissa

So I always seem to be an optimist and I KNOW these predictions will shift and change in the coming months but so far, based on what we've seen I would rank them:

1. Ashley
2. Gracie/Agnes (edge to Gracie)
4. Mirai/Caroline
6. Rachael
7. Vanessa
8. Christina
9. Alissa

My heart wants:
1.Mirai/Ashley
3.Gracie
4.Alissa
5.Caroline
6.Agnes
7.Flatt
8.Christina
9.Vanessa

This season I would say is better for the American Junior Ladies
sure there isn't a Gracie Gold caliber but there are many potential medalists
there might be2 american ladies to go to the JGPF

I prefer Angela Wang and Leah Keiser
over Hicks who has gotten terrible after her injury

This is a learning year for Gracie but i think once she learns how to really perform and not just skate and jump she will quickly challenge Ashley. Rememeber Ashley is a lot older then Gracie and has been on the GP circuit going on six years now while Gracie is a newbie.

I would also not forget about Zawadzki, if she gets her act together in the freeskate portion.