State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season | Page 15 | Golden Skate

State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season

Harvard may not let students go part time, but Gao could definitely take next year off from Harvard if she wants to make a serious run at the Olympic team. Emily Hughes did the same thing in 2010, they might not allow Gao to take a "reduced" course load, but I don't think they can ban her from coming back if she wants to take a year off, she should be able to do so without being penilized or having to reapply, that's standard procedure for most universities these days. I suspect her decision regarding next year will depend on how she skates and places at TEB, Nationals, and potentially 4CC and/or Worlds this season should she be named to those teams, along with how others are skating.
 
I'm just glad that Wagner has FINALLY found a way to channel her intense nature onto the ice. I knew years ago she was fiercely competitive and had high motivation, but somehow she just couldn't really manifest it into her skating. For her, seems like Nicks is what the doctor ordered! This season we'll see how she handles pressure, and if she wants to be an international champion, this element is critical. It's what makes or breaks so many talented skaters.
 
R.D. said:
The Russians are hardly invincible - just ask Miss Osmond.

Back to the Americans, though - Gao skated THE BEST SHE POSSIBLY COULD and still couldn't top an imperfect Wagner in the FS. She's just not on Wagner's level at this point. Odds are Gao won't skate that well at TEB (she might, but a betting man might not take that chance), so I do not think she can win the event. A repeat of SA COULD put her on the podium if one or more Russians mess up...I still think she got lucky, but hey, I like surprises.




There was some campaigning for Gold last season but I pointed out that she was untested under pressure. After SC, she herself admitted to being caught up in the moment and said she needs more senior experience. The transition to the highest level is not an easy one, and it may come with growing pains (in her case, it HAS already come with such pains).

Yes, Wagner's score was a bit high. But that was SA, home crowd and all.
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Mmm, you may be right about Tuktamysheva, but I have the feeling she'll rally after missing the podium by .04 of a point at Skate Canada. Lipnitskaia, though, is a tougher nut to crack. It seems as though she hasn't been hit with the full brunt of puberty issues yet--huge potential there, and she was undefeated last season but for a second-place finish at the Russian Nats. She isn't perfect--more maturity would be desirable--but her massive score at the Finlandia Trophy this year should have even the veteran skaters shaking in their boots, and she seems to have tackled most of the consistency issues that plague her teammates.

If Gao ends up on the podium at TEB, I will be just as surprised. Remember that she was also behind Wagner after the short, though, and rallied enough to top Sotnikova. I'm just unconvinced for the reason you mentioned and because the field at Skate America was most definitely not on top of their game. As far as beating out the Russians, if Tukta shows the same exhaustion she did at Skate Canada, Gao could have a window of opportunity, but whether or not she can outskate an imperfect defending champion is questionable.

True, the pressure on Gold at the senior level is in an entirely different class than what she experienced as a junior. She'll be out for blood at the Rostelecom Cup for sure.

Exactly, which is why I mentioned the political bias. But no matter--she still would have been the undisputed champion, as she won by more than 14 points.
 
silverlake22 said:
Harvard may not let students go part time, but Gao could definitely take next year off from Harvard if she wants to make a serious run at the Olympic team. Emily Hughes did the same thing in 2010, they might not allow Gao to take a "reduced" course load, but I don't think they can ban her from coming back if she wants to take a year off, she should be able to do so without being penilized or having to reapply, that's standard procedure for most universities these days. I suspect her decision regarding next year will depend on how she skates and places at TEB, Nationals, and potentially 4CC and/or Worlds this season should she be named to those teams, along with how others are skating.
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I think for someone like Gao, having the full course load might help reduce the pressure of competing. A lot of these girls nail their practices but crumble in competition, and knowing she has school Monday morning to fall back on may help her take a better perspective on competing
 
Christina Gao. Angela Wang on the junior front. I don't see the Gold hype. Love MiraI and Caroline but Caroline seems to have lost...something. The spring in her step maybe. Is Czisny retired officially? *sad*
 
mars007 said:
Christina Gao. Angela Wang on the junior front. I don't see the Gold hype. Love MiraI and Caroline but Caroline seems to have lost...something. The spring in her step maybe. Is Czisny retired officially? *sad*
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She's not, but I don't see her returning to the level she was at before her injury. She'll be at the NHK Trophy next month.
 
This Hersh article was posted in the Flatt thread, but it is relevant here because it refers to the US ladies program as a whole, and I'd like to keep the other thread about Flatt's injury specifically:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sport...n-next-disappearing-20121030,0,5408673.column

My comments (originally posted in the other thread):

Nagasu is still very much in the picture. I disagree with him here. (If there is anyone currently in the mix that I have the least amount of confidence in, it is Czisny.) Gao is wait-and-see.

I'm still exercising caution when talking about Wagner- I STILL think she's far from a done deal. Maybe it's pessimism on my part, or seeing the ups and downs (and injuries!) of so many skaters before her- but...you know, if she happens to not do so well at TEB, what's everyone going to think? Just food for thought :think:

______________

Responding to a comment posted by "drivingmissdaisy" in the Flatt thread:

I think Ashley is a safe bet to make 2013 Worlds. She has done enough since last year's Nationals (4CC, Worlds, SA) to get a spot even if she bombs at Nationals. Even when she gets nervous, she has the ability to at least lands jumps on 2 feet, and her PCS is high enough now to compensate for the errors. Two girls would have to have the skate of their lives in both the SP and the LP, and Ashley would have to completely bomb, for her not to finish in the top 2. And then the USFSA would have to look past her great recent results to put those 2 girls on the World team. I don't see all of those things happening.
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I think this leads to another question: will Wagner become the USFS new "darling"? By "darling" I mean will she benefit from high PCS, generous UR/GOE calls, etc. like Flatt & Czisny did for several years? If so, you might be right about her making the team even with a so-so performance.
 
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R.D. said:
I think this leads to another question: will Wagner become the USFS new "darling"? By "darling" I mean will she benefit from high PCS, generous UR/GOE calls, etc. like Flatt & Czisny did for several years? If so, you might be right about her making the team even with a so-so performance.
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R.D., I think she already has, if her SA marks mean anything. True, she was scored by an international team of judges, but there was definitely some hometown advantage in scoring her a 127+ in the FS, just as Kaetlyn Osmond had in SC. I mentioned earlier that, leading up to US Nats this season, Wagner and Gracie Gold are the so-called "sweethearts" of the US FS scene, just as Shawn Johnson was for gymnastics in Beijing in 2008. They are beautiful, young, and talented, with a knack for presentation, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were the two chosen to represent America at 2013 Worlds.
 
I agree the two faves and flaves of the day are Wagner and Goldie. But if Gold bombs at her next Grand Prix the honeymoon and marriage may be over. Gold kind of blew it at Skate Canada and got passed by Osmond which was and is a surprise.
 
Skater Boy said:
I agree the two faves and flaves of the day are Wagner and Goldie. But if Gold bombs at her next Grand Prix the honeymoon and marriage may be over. Gold kind of blew it at Skate Canada and got passed by Osmond which was and is a surprise.
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People who saw Gold in warmup said that she looked as good as ever. It was pretty clear that nerves got the better of her, which shouldn't happen again now that she has a taste of how things work at the senior international level.
 
R.D. said:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sport...n-next-disappearing-20121030,0,5408673.column

My comments (originally posted in the other thread):

Nagasu is still very much in the picture. I disagree with him here. (If there is anyone currently in the mix that I have the least amount of confidence in, it is Czisny.) Gao is wait-and-see.
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Why nobody tells about Angela Wang?
She was the best of US Ladies at JGP Events. Her jumps now are about Gold's level. If she will take place in Senior Events, she will obtain high "Senior" PCS, about Gao's. She has some problems, of course. But she has time - Olympics (and National where skaters will qualify to Olympics) will be more than for an year.
 
ForeverFish said:
People who saw Gold in warmup said that she looked as good as ever. It was pretty clear that nerves got the better of her, which shouldn't happen again now that she has a taste of how things work at the senior international level.
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Didn't she have this taste at WTT?

We will see at next two days how skates Nagasu and for a week how skates Gold now.
 
ForeverFish said:
R.D., I think she already has, if her SA marks mean anything. True, she was scored by an international team of judges, but there was definitely some hometown advantage in scoring her a 127+ in the FS, just as Kaetlyn Osmond had in SC. I mentioned earlier that, leading up to US Nats this season, Wagner and Gracie Gold are the so-called "sweethearts" of the US FS scene, just as Shawn Johnson was for gymnastics in Beijing in 2008. They are beautiful, young, and talented, with a knack for presentation, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were the two chosen to represent America at 2013 Worlds.
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Ashley is definitely the "darling", no questions about it. But what's good about it is she's earned it: she had a good GP run last year, strong nationals, kicked *** at 4CC, strong worlds, strong Japan Open, strong Skate America...she's a strong skater and her record is showing she's a strong competitor. So if by chance she has an off night, which will happen eventually, she's earned the confidence of the federation to get a look-the-other-way pass because they know she's good for it. Additionally, she's earned the respect and favoritism of the international judges which isn't an easy task. She's receiving a significant hike in PCS and GOEs b/c she's one of the favorites and that's not something the USFSA will pass on. That's the reason they sent Alissa to worlds last year b/c even with a few mistakes her favor with the judges would help her out; obviously they weren't expecting the epic sized meltdown she had.

So Ashley's spot is pretty much set. I'd say Gold was the clear 2nd but there a rather large asterisk next to her name now. She's not really proving herself to be a reliable competitor so far this season but she has time to change that. If she has a strong showing at COR and then nationals, she'll more than likely be the first choice for that second spot. However, if by chance Christina has a strong showing at her next event and nationals, or Mirai does well at COC and nationals, I think the decision will be tougher. Christina and Mirai are far better all-around skaters than Gracie is, so it would come down to sending the best overall pick.

I don't see Alissa or Caroline being in the mix. Agnes is a bit of a wildcard too...as far as juniors go, the most promising one is Angela Wang. I seriously doubt they'd send her to senior worlds but she's a lock for junior worlds at this point...she's another great technician like Gracie but she's got a lot of what Gracie lacks in terms of presentation, artistry, interpretation, etc.

Nationals is going to be crazy this year, that's for sure...
 
AlexRus said:
Didn't she have this taste at WTT?

We will see at next two days how skates Nagasu and for a week how skates Gold now.
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Not at the same level as at WTT and SLC. She was buried in media after every practice at SC which she had never before experienced with the spotlight on her very bright. At WTT, there were a number of other skaters that had a much brighter spotlight and SLC was fairly low key...
 
kwanatic said:
Additionally, she's earned the respect and favoritism of the international judges which isn't an easy task. She's receiving a significant hike in PCS and GOEs b/c she's one of the favorites and that's not something the USFSA will pass on.
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I think if you compare objectively and critically pre-John Nicks skating and post-John Nicks skating for Ashley, I'd say she DESERVES that hike in PCS and GOEs - she's become a much better SKATER and her elements are much more solid. She rarely has that two foot landing issue anymore (which will kill GOE, even for the best jumps from a height, distance and speed standpoint) which makes the judges appreciate the positive aspects of those elements. I know, I used to just shake my head because Ashley would do a really nice 3F (or 3Lo) with transitions going in, good height, distance, and speed, and then she'd tap that free toe on the landing negating all the positives I've just mentioned.
 
mskater93 said:
I think if you compare objectively and critically pre-John Nicks skating and post-John Nicks skating for Ashley, I'd say she DESERVES that hike in PCS and GOEs - she's become a much better SKATER and her elements are much more solid. She rarely has that two foot landing issue anymore (which will kill GOE, even for the best jumps from a height, distance and speed standpoint) which makes the judges appreciate the positive aspects of those elements. I know, I used to just shake my head because Ashley would do a really nice 3F (or 3Lo) with transitions going in, good height, distance, and speed, and then she'd tap that free toe on the landing negating all the positives I've just mentioned.
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ITA completely re: pre-John Nicks, post-John Nicks. Ashley has improved immensely. That frantic, nervous aura that used to characterize her skating is gone. Nicks has slowed her down and smoothed her out. The result is a calm confidence that really works with her skating. Her 2-foot problem isn't as rampant as it used to be, there's more control in her jumps...you can see the improvements.

Reputation influences PCS. If you compare Ashley's PCS and GOEs from this time last season (when she debuted with Nicks and was still considered middle-of-the-pack) to what she got at SA, you can see the difference. In the FS she goes from mid to low 50s last year to low 60s this year...it's a +5 point jump. She's presenting her programs better, she's staying on her feet, she's selling the program...it's a justifiable hike in score IMO. The point is even if a skater is great they don't always get the marks they are due until the judges take notice of them. Ashley's consistent strong performances have forced the judges to take notice of her and give her the scores she's due.

I think it's wonderful because she's earned it! When a skater goes out and earns those marks on merit it's much more respectable than someone getting a great score/winning based on reputation. The plus side for reputation scoring is that when the skater has an off night, they'll get the leg up...a few mistakes in one performance can be overlooked. It becomes a problem when a skater continues to get high scores even when they're making multiple mistakes performance after performance.
 
Ah, I understand your point quite a bit better now. Initially I thought perhaps you were implying that she got a boost due to reputation as US Champion versus that she deserves it. FWIW, I see being US Champion as agreeing HIGHLY with Ashley - her confidence and delivery seemed to jump BIG TIME after she put together a solid short at Nationals, finally, and it was really apparent watching TV/internet for 4CC, Worlds, WTT, JO, SKAM to me.
 
mskater93 said:
Ah, I understand your point quite a bit better now. Initially I thought perhaps you were implying that she got a boost due to reputation as US Champion versus that she deserves it. FWIW, I see being US Champion as agreeing HIGHLY with Ashley - her confidence and delivery seemed to jump BIG TIME after she put together a solid short at Nationals, finally, and it was really apparent watching TV/internet for 4CC, Worlds, WTT, JO, SKAM to me.
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No, no, that's not what I meant at all. Glad to clear that up! :)

Being the champ definitely agrees with her and like I said, she's earned it so those marks are well deserved. Everyone else carried the title like a heavy burden but she's embraced it and it's boosting her confidence and her scores. Being the US champ/medalist doesn't count for squat if you skate like crap (ref. Alissa in 2009 and last year). But being the US champ and skating like a champion will get you a lot of respect and the scores will reflect it.
 
That's the reason they sent Alissa to worlds last year b/c even with a few mistakes her favor with the judges would help her out; obviously they weren't expecting the epic sized meltdown she had.
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...and hopefully they never, ever send her again. :disapp:


The plus side for reputation scoring is that when the skater has an off night, they'll get the leg up...a few mistakes in one performance can be overlooked. It becomes a problem when a skater continues to get high scores even when they're making multiple mistakes performance after performance.
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:unsure: Is there EVER a "plus side" for rep scoring??

:disagree: Rep scoring should NOT exist. Only one thing should factor into the score and that's how the skater performed THAT NIGHT. It happens too often at US Nationals I feel...

Otherwise, why bother to hold a competition? Just have a coronation and send the medals out by mail :sarcasm:
 
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