Uh oh, that's not good.ETA: without her, you can basically shelf any lingering hopes for 3 spots in Sochi
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State of American Ladies: 2012-13 Season
- Thread starter R.D.
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Uh oh, that's not good.ETA: without her, you can basically shelf any lingering hopes for 3 spots in Sochi
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
ETA: without her, you can basically shelf any lingering hopes for 3 spots in Sochi
She completed her program and landed her last jump--a 3F--without any visible problems. I'm hoping that if it is an injury, it'll be minor enough that she won't have any trouble competing at Nats. Of course, a healthy Wagner would be the best outcome after that second fall.
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- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
If Wagner makes the same mistakes at Nats while the others are clean, I'd agree that the likely gold medalists would be Gold or Nagasu. I've been expecting problems with the jumps in the second half of her program ever since SA--she seems to have to fight for the landing every time on the 3Lo-2A.
Nationals will probably be an even bigger test for Wagner than I initially expected, because not only does she have to deal with the pressure of defending her title, she now has to bounce back from this skate which surely would affect her confidence moving forward.
I have not seen the GPF skate, and I don't know if I can or will watch- but as I said earlier in the season, biggest concern for Wagner (besides peaking too soon) is staying healthy!
I have not seen the GPF skate, and I don't know if I can or will watch- but as I said earlier in the season, biggest concern for Wagner (besides peaking too soon) is staying healthy!
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2009
Ditto. I think she needs to work on her jumps. They did not look very good today.
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- Feb 17, 2010
This performance might be a blessing for Ashley. Many times we have seen skaters have one bad performance but still have an otherwise marvelous season. She has been skating so well that, if she was going to struggle, it is good to do so now rather than at Nationals or Worlds.
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- Jun 16, 2010
I disagree. If Wagner does a SP like Nationals she will be a huge lead over all other going clean, only maybe Zawadzki who is a great SP skater would come close, Gold and Nagasu would be way behind. Then in the LP they would protect her with PCS. Wagner will have to make more mistakes than she did here to lose Nationals, there is no way the USFSA wants anyone else as U.S Champion going to Worlds right now, and with good reason.
EXACTLY. Better now than when it really counts. Having said that, it will be up to her to prove that this was a fluke skate and not the beginning of a downhill ride...(because how many times have we seen that before with the current US women...)
I'm still worried about that fall though. I hope it doesn't affect her in the long-term. We need her (far too much to hope both Gold AND Nagasu step it up significantly like that)
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- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
Gold is a great SP skater also, and she has something Wagner doesn't--a 3-3 that she lands with near-perfect consistency. Of course, I fully expect Wagner to add a 3-3 to both programs by January, but it's unfair to project an imperfect Wagner over the rest of the field when, if clean, Gold and the others will be scoring 180+ and coming within range of Wagner's winning score last year. Regardless of what the USFSA wants, Wagner will still need to show at Nats that she's the one to pull for. Like R.D. said, she's by no means a lock for the championship, and she can't afford any more GPF-sized mistakes.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
I'm glad Ashley got this skate out of the way. She's human, I was wondering when she was going to make a mistake. Anyways, her score here was still higher than the SB of Nagasu and Gold, and this was very uncharacteristic of Ashley, whereas Mirai's URs and Gracies mistakes in the FS are pretty typical for them, so I'm not too worried for Ashley. She might not win Nationals but I'd be surprised if she wasn't top 2, and I think she likely will win as she'll have a PCS margin on Gold and Nagasu and is less likely to make mistakes or UR her jumps. Gold has never scored higher than 113 in the FS thus far, and Ashley got 115 with 2 falls, Mirai's scores at 2010 Olympics and 2011 4CC were high, but those competitions were also very inflated, apart from those two comps, I think her 115 from NHK was the highest she's gotten in a while. Gao can maybe hit 120 if she's perfect, but she'll need a good draw for the FS to do that, and once she makes one mistake, the scores seem to drop suddenly (as evidenced here). Zawadzki even when she's skated well in the FS internationally has never broken 110.
I don't expect Ashley to skate like this at Nationals, but even if she did, I have a hard time seeing her drop below 2nd.
I don't expect Ashley to skate like this at Nationals, but even if she did, I have a hard time seeing her drop below 2nd.
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
That depends on whether you're only looking at ISU competitions, in which case, her FS PB was 113.85 at Junior Worlds. Last year at Junior Nats, though, Gracie scored a 118.17 in her FS--a score she's likely to surpass at Nats this year.
I can't help but have flashbacks to 2007...and Meissner's situation. Strong in her 2 GP events, then struggles at the GPF...just about everyone thought that was out of her system and she'd be back by nationals to defend her title- only to have the same shocking 3-fall performance there (and only got to Worlds via age rules and politics)
I'm trying to say that Wagner will be facing one of the biggest tests of her career coming up at Nationals. Because face it, coming off a rough skate AND having a title to defend is not a position you want to be in.
It IS possible, though. Especially if Wagner messes up the short as is tradition at US Nationals, last year notwithstanding. Gold and Nagasu are definitely within striking range to take advantage of any mistakes Wagner makes, and perhaps even Gao if she gets her act together (won't be counting on it though). I don't see Zawadzki being a threat except perhaps gaining a couple points advantage in the SP if she nails it.
I'm trying to say that Wagner will be facing one of the biggest tests of her career coming up at Nationals. Because face it, coming off a rough skate AND having a title to defend is not a position you want to be in.
It IS possible, though. Especially if Wagner messes up the short as is tradition at US Nationals, last year notwithstanding. Gold and Nagasu are definitely within striking range to take advantage of any mistakes Wagner makes, and perhaps even Gao if she gets her act together (won't be counting on it though). I don't see Zawadzki being a threat except perhaps gaining a couple points advantage in the SP if she nails it.
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2012
I hope this doesn't happen to Wagner, especially since she's just now proving herself a serious contender on the international stage, but you're right that she's not in the homestretch yet. To repeat as national champion, she'll need everything she's been showing at her GP events, plus a solid 3-3, plus nerves from the other competitors (Gold and Nagasu in particular).
EDIT: Also, Kimmie was skating on a sprained ankle at the 2007 GPF, which in part explains her poor performance. Hopefully, Wagner didn't sustain any serious or lasting injuries as a result of her second fall.
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- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
Just watched Ashley's program... she really has amazing fight. She was clearly in pain after that fall on the 2A yet still pulled herself together to complete a great 3F and perform the remainder of her program. She refuses to hold back or water down her content even after things go wrong and I find it so admirable.
I hope others can learn from her example; she went for that 3F at the end and because of it won a silver instead of a bronze.
I hope others can learn from her example; she went for that 3F at the end and because of it won a silver instead of a bronze.
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According to a quote from the USFS recap, Wagner's injury is a "hip pointer" (explained here on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hip_pointer and here: http://www.coreperformance.com/knowledge/injury-pain/hip-injuries.html, scroll down a little)
sounds like it may put her off the ice for a couple of weeks perhaps, but it is not serious or career-ending.
Agreed- although she probably won't need the 3-3 in the SP. She may want to go for the 2A/3T in the FS though. I think a clean SP is more important above all at Nationals because you don't want to dig yourself a hole to climb out of. Wagner would know that fact better than anyone else!
sounds like it may put her off the ice for a couple of weeks perhaps, but it is not serious or career-ending.
Agreed- although she probably won't need the 3-3 in the SP. She may want to go for the 2A/3T in the FS though. I think a clean SP is more important above all at Nationals because you don't want to dig yourself a hole to climb out of. Wagner would know that fact better than anyone else!
I finally worked up the courage to watch this - and the fall was nasty. But, I really agree with you - she really pulled herself together and fought for the program. That, to me, is a great sign of a well prepared competitor.
Thanks for the info, RD.
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- Mar 26, 2012
Wagner all the way!!! Polished and poised and a fantastic competitor. I like her 'take charge' attitude. No nerves for this young lady.
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- Nov 12, 2009
I'm talking about internationals. It gives you a better idea of what to expect at Worlds. Plus if Ashley can get 115 for a 2 fall skate at the GPF, you can imagine that number would be higher at Nationals, whereas I know it was a junior program, but Gracie's almost 114 was for a nearly perfect skate, so it gives you an idea of comparison on the international stage. Also Gold only had one error in her junior FS at Nats last year, was the clear favorite coming in, class of the field, and didn't have the pressure of competing against ladies who have been 4th at Worlds and the Olympics for a spot on the World Team that decides how many girls get to go to the Olympics. So far this season, she's been averaging quite a few more mistakes than last season, and the pressure will certainly be more. I don't doubt that she can't skate well in spite of it, but I don't know if it's fair to say she's bound to top her score from last Nationals, where she landed 7 triples and probably also benefitted from "wow" factor standing out so much from the rest of the field in what was otherwise a somewhat lackluster event, which likely helped her GOE and PCS. We can expect with a strong skate her PCS at Nationals might be a few points higher than internationally, but even so, add that to the skates she's had so far thus season, and that's still not quite 118+, even with the spiral sequence. Clean, sure I think Gracie could score 125 to 130, but she's been having issues landing more than 4 or 5 solid triples in her FS so far this season so I wouldn't say it's a set bet.
- Joined
- Nov 12, 2009
Kimmie's issues were due to post-puberty body changes and bad jump technique. Her 3-3s were never fully around when she was a toothpick, then she filled out and got a hips and thighs and the 3-3s vanished and other triples didn't work so well either. Kimmie was also a teenager that went to the Olympics at 16 and then won Worlds at 16. She achieved what most people aim to achieve in a long career before she had finished maturing physically. The situation is in no way similar to Ashley, who is 21 and far beyond any puberty/post-puberty dramatic body changes. She's never been to the Olympics and has only gone to Worlds twice, she was the almost girl for years, and now she's buckled down, gotten in great shape, and shown she's determined to get to the top. So far, it's been a convincing ride. I know her content is not the most ambitious but I for one was at least wondering how long it was going to be before she made a mistake in her FS. That time finally arrived, she is human, it happens. Much like Yuna's struggle at 2009 SA or Miki's 5th place at 2011 GPF, I don't think this is setting the stage for things to come, but rather an experience showing she is human and taking some of the pressure of being a leader and expected to continually reel off great performances every time out as that has been the trend. Yuna wasn't back to her old self by GPF, but she still won, then won the Olympics in dominant fashion, and Miki after bombing the GPF SP and only finishing 5th, came back to win Japanese Nats, 4CC, and Worlds. Ashley got the monkey off her back, this was bound to happen, I don't think in any way she's going to start a trend of falling twice in every FS now, and if she does, I for one will be shocked. She's come too far, her jumps have gotten very consistent, she has the right mindset - this is a fluke, not a trend, I think, whereas for Kimmie that was the start of a steep decline from the top.
