2013 Japanese Nationals Men

Li'Kitsu · Dec 25, 2012

os168 said:
And welll.... What a funny latest statement from Hanyu to imply he only maxed out 50% ability in this free skate and no more than 80% this season so far. It kind of suggest I was right more than I am not? I am not sure why he said what he said. By admitting this, he admit he wasn't best today (so how does that justify the high PCS, GOE etc? Should that knock 50% marks off? Judges overmarked him by 49% at least? lol... how do the fans respond to that now? ). Poor Daisuke ... your 100% best just got knocked by 50% best from Hanyu because you are no longer as well liked. Hmm.... yeah it stinks!! If he didn't look so ill, I'd be even tough on him today. Hope he improves at worlds, he seriously need to turn up the fire to justify these scores. Otherwise I'd hate to lump him into the exclusive group of over marked Japanese skaters with strong federation support.

Oh boy, what a useless way to ill-conditionedly overinterpretate something that a young boy said. Of course, "I only managed 50% today!" completly equals "I should have gotten just 50% of the marks I got" :sarcasm:
Maybe he just wanted to say that he wasn't satisfied with what he did today, and that he still feels he can do better overall. Not that he deliberatly didn't give his best or whatever you want to think. So what? Do you think Daisuke was at 100% when he won the GPF? Very likely not, and he still deserved that win (while there are poeple who thought Yuzuru should have won that). It was easy to see Hanyu wasn't completly at his best here. And he didn't win the free. If you look at the SP - Hanyu was at his best, Daisuke wasn't at his.
So Yuzuru should be marked down in over half of the components and overall marks just because you don't like his interpretation of the last 20sec or soemthing?

Sorry, no agreement here at all.
I can certainly see some good points why Daisuke could/should have won this competition, but your reasons are half-convincing at best. And whatever problems you have with the COP overall, that's not Hanyus problem here too. So if you want to lumb him in whatever group you want too - have a lot of fun doing so. Because it makes perfectly sense that the JSF already backs up Hanyu more than they ever did back up Daisuke. I guess WTT is one of the perfect proofs for that.

lakeside · Dec 25, 2012

os168 said:
For this performance, I'd say he maxed out 84% tech, 64% artistry.

Elsa G said:
For your information,he said in an interview after Free skate,he thought he only maxed out 50% ability in this free skate and no more than 80% this season so far.

os168 said:
And welll.... What a funny latest statement from Hanyu to imply he only maxed out 50% ability in this free skate and no more than 80% this season so far. It kind of suggest I was right more than I am not? I am not sure why he said what he said. By admitting this, he admit he wasn't best today (so how does that justify the high PCS, GOE etc? Should that knock 50% marks off? Judges overmarked him by 49% at least? lol... how do the fans respond to that now? :sarcasm. Poor Daisuke ... your 100% best just got knocked by 50% best from Hanyu because you are no longer as well liked. Hmm.... yeah it stinks!! If he didn't look so ill, I'd be even tough on him today. Hope he improves at worlds, he seriously need to turn up the fire to justify these scores. Otherwise I'd hate to lump him into the exclusive group of over marked Japanese skaters with strong federation support.

I see Elsa G’s post giving us information about what Yuzru thought of himself, which could be different from the opinion of an audience i.e. you. You could watch his performance and think he maxed out 84% in tech, but Yuzru himself could have another opinion. I remember Tracy or someone commented at one competition that Yuzru is a perfectionist, so if he thinks he skated 50% of his capability it only means he was not satisfied with his performance and he will try to skate more well next time. I don’t know how this perfectionist comment and wish for himself to skate more well next time could be perceived as the judges overscored him by 50%?

Plus, what does Yuzru’s comment have to do with how judges judged his LP? The judges scored him based on what he put out on the ice that night and how that met the checkbox of scoring system, not based on how well Yuzru thought he skated. For instance, you thought Yuzru maxed out 84% in tech, but some judges might have thought he maxed out 90% in tech. Different people could have different opinions. What if Yuzru said he skated 100% in the interview? By your logic (which you think he skated 84%), it would become that he was underscored by 16%? So Yuzru should always say he skated 100% in all the interviews to be marked higher.

os168 said:
He isn't just focus on the tech but seems to focus on his pacing as while visibly clenched not letting himself go, and was slower by his standard.

os168 said:
That is the problem, you are not looking at the program as a whole, and one shouldn't judge things like speed to relative to another competitor when they are performing to completely different programs, different music and choreography.
……

My original comment was a response to let’s talk and your posts who said Yuzru was slower by his standard/did not have his usual speed. So I replied even though he did not have his usual speed, he was still faster than all others including Takahashi. I was talking about speed and skating skills. Your reply to me was more an analysis of the program, choreography, and performance. I don’t think you and I were talking about the same thing. Also notice that skating skills and transitions have nothing to do with interpretation and choreography. SS and TR are supposed to be scored independently. If you don’t like how COP is not looking at the program as a whole when they score skating skills, transitions, jumps, spins, etc. that’s not Yuzru’s problem.

os168 said:
* However, the most critical part of the whole program should REALLY be about building everything to a soaring dramatic finish at 4min21, where the crowning glory moment of the whole program……This is when he should speed FAST, at ease and smoothly the most, big strokes, deep edges. Unfortunately, this crowning emotional height of the program was not delivered, and ends up being the least emotional invested part of the performance and least powered, which was why the program feel insincere and jarring. Or to summarize, a bit of a 'meh'!

Li’Kitsu said:
So Yuzuru should be marked down in over half of the components and overall marks just because you don't like his interpretation of the last 20sec or soemthing? Sorry, no agreement here at all.

I also think Takahashi should have more speed, bigger strokes, and deeper edges in his last ChSt, which was the climax of the whole program when Canio lost his mind. But I wouldn’t think he was overscored just because he didn’t have the speed and deep edges that I exepected him to have. I think overall Takahashi did enough for the program to win the LP, and I think Yuzru did enough for his score. Plus, remember Takahashi’s PCS was 6.3 points higher than Yuzru, so I think the judges already acknowledged Takahashi’s performance was much better than Yuzru that night. But I don’t think Yuzru should be marked any lower than what he got.

os168 said:
Hanyu has shown he is fully capable of that last year (which is what makes me like him so much) but at this particular performance compare to what Dai did, he was lucky his SP gap was big enough (that bit is a bit like Yuna ).

There are many skaters who won overall because of big SP gap, e.g., did you object that Takahashi won last year’s Japanese Nationals because he was lucky his SP gap was big enough?

let`s talk · Dec 25, 2012

Kalina said:
With that said, I think people tend to watch skating too much from a fan's perspective and forget that this is a sport, and that in terms of scoring components

Everyone knows that Dai won last year Nationals due to a huge gap between him and the silver medalist in SP: 11 points, and the silver medalist didn't have a good FS, had a fall and lousy skating. So, your comparison with last year's Dai/Taka and this year Dai/Yuzu has no merit. Yeah, let's judge on the sport perspective. There is nothing super-puper wow in Hanyu TES to give him so generous GOE, especially with obvious mistakes. And what is more shameful- those ridicoulous PCS. Even for his Canadian coworker it took longer time to crack 9s, while Hanyu got it just like that, even if his fans think that he has artistic shortcomings. Then what you want from all the rest.

lakeside said:
I don’t think the Japanese domestic judges were harsher to Takahashi since Takahashi got UR calls at all international events this season, especially his quads have been called UR a lot.

Eh? So, if judges gave a fall deduction to the skater in one event, they should give it in all others? What you are talking about? Judges give marks for the particular skating, and not for what was judged in other events.

:

lakeside said:
I gave you a straightforward answer.

No, you didn't. I don't see any gifs, pics, screenshots, etc. Apply the same method to all skaters, otherwise you are biased. :laugh:

lakeside said:
did you object that Takahashi won last year’s Japanese Nationals because he was lucky his SP gap was big enough?

Maybe he got lucky. Because if Kozuka delivered a great skating in FS, then Dai wouldn't be a champion. That it what should have happened this year if the judging was fair. :disapp:

OS · Dec 25, 2012

Li'Kitsu said:
Oh boy, what a useless way to ill-conditionedly overinterpretate something that a young boy said. Of course, "I only managed 50% today!" completly equals "I should have gotten just 50% of the marks I got" ...
I can certainly see some good points why Daisuke could/should have won this competition, but your reasons are half-convincing at best. And whatever problems you have with the COP overall, that's not Hanyus problem here too. So if you want to lumb him in whatever group you want too - have a lot of fun doing so. Because it makes perfectly sense that the JSF already backs up Hanyu more than they ever did back up Daisuke. I guess WTT is one of the perfect proofs for that.

But that is my point, isn't it funny with numbers? I hope the tongue in cheek tone in that paragraph do came across of how numbers can only be used to played against an argument too. There are those who swear by the numbers as facts to justify the win, but in actual you can't have it both ways. Without consider these the motivation and meaning behind numbers and only take them at face value, you are putting yourself in a one or the other ways of thinking. In any case i am sticking to my estimate (+-10%

). Hanyu has always been humble boy, and it is in my opinion he drop the rate to motivate himself to do better, though by doing so, he does leave himself open for criticism for not able to show his best today and still some how won the competition against a skating God who put out a great pair of performances, his bests in ages.

I disagree Hanyu should be given a pass and treated like a boy. In Sport in all fairness, everyone should be treated equally whether you are 16 or 27; whether you are a 2 times world champion or a newbie; whether you are a favorite or 10 times loser; whether you sufferer some personal and national tragedy or injuries; or if you are a media darling Vs a total nobody. Nobody deserve a free pass because of who they are, and it should be what they bring on the ice on the day that count the most. Problem is figure skating isn't always like this, when federations/commercial pressures all have their own agenda to see certain skaters win. When these final rankings (Not scoring) are affected because of these 'interests' and 'manipulation', it concerns me.

Regarding the bolded part. So you DO admit JSF favoured him this time and is perfectly fine with the result? I hope not. See that is the problem when federation actively push for skaters that took wins off the rightful winner (they have done this at NHK too), it goes against the purpose of a fair competition. It is about artificially manipulating the result for the greater good of the federation and not the skater. And if you condone this sort of manipulation, you should be worried about Hanyu next year, what if he suddenly came down with a series of injuries that hurt him through out the season where he performed below expectation, except at Nationals where he put on his best performances ever, except because JSF decide to prop up some other skater and give up on him, he may get the Daisuke treatment like at this competition even having skated the lights out ON THE DAY?

lakeside said:
...There are many skaters who won overall because of big SP gap, e.g., did you object that Takahashi won last year’s Japanese Nationals because he was lucky his SP gap was big enough?

I am against any system or point manipulation, end of. See the above for explanation.

Merry Xmas everyone!

Re: StellaCampo, thanks for the compliment. I am actually a big fan girl of both Hanyu and Daisuke and in particularly the artistry of skating, that is why this topic interest me.

lakeside · Dec 25, 2012

let’s talk said:
Everyone knows that Dai won last year Nationals due to a huge gap between him and the silver medalist in SP: 11 points, and the silver medalist didn't have a good FS, had a fall and lousy skating. So, your comparison with last year's Dai/Taka and this year Dai/Yuzu has no merit. Yeah, let's judge on the sport perspective. There is nothing super-puper wow in Hanyu TES to give him so generous GOE, especially with obvious mistakes. And what is more shameful- those ridicoulous PCS. Even for his Canadian coworker it took longer time to crack 9s, while Hanyu got it just like that, even if his fans think that he has artistic shortcomings. Then what you want from all the rest.

Last year the silver medalist Kozuka did not skate perfectly in the LP, but it was enough to beat Takahashi, who had three falls and “lousy skating.” This year Takahashi skated well in the LP, but Yuzru did not skate as poorly as Takahashi’s LP last year. Yuzru had no falls and completed all his planned jumps. Since he has extremely high BV, when he doesn't fall he would get high TES.

If you think “there is nothing super-puper wow in Hanyu TES to give him so generous GOE,” then there’s nothing super-puper wow in Takahashi’s TES to give him so generous GOE either. Yuzru’s total GOE was 10, while Takahashi’s total GOE was 17! I think Takahashi was more gifted in GOE’s. If you compare PCS’s, then everyone got high PCS at this competition. Kozuka for example got 84.4 with that train wreck skate. Then Yuzru’s 89.7 was not high at all.

let’s talk said:
And here the one who got generously overscored with all home advantge was Yuzu, while Dai got none, and he actually was judged way strcicter than even at international events (ur, sq level, etc.).

lakeside said:
I don’t think the Japanese domestic judges were harsher to Takahashi since Takahashi got UR calls at all international events this season, especially his quads have been called UR a lot.

let’s talk said:
Eh? So, if judges gave a fall deduction to the skater in one event, they should give it in all others? What you are talking about? Judges give marks for the particular skating, and not for what was judged in other events. :

Oh, please read your original post, my dear let’s talk. You were the one who said that Takahashi “actually was judged way stricter than even at international events.” Than I listed the data and told you that was not true. He got UR calls at all international events this season. Why change subject of discussion in your new post? Plus, the Japanese judges gave marks for Takahashi’s particular skating at Japanese Nationals, and the calls were all right.

let’s talk said:
No, you didn't. I don't see any gifs, pics, screenshots, etc. Apply the same method to all skaters, otherwise you are biased.

I will only do gifs and screenshots for the jumps that are called by the judges this time. If you want me to question the jumps that are not called, then it would only be fair to study all the jumps in question, i.e., Takahashi’s 3A< and 3Lz (e) 3T< (?) in the SP and his 3A<2T<2Lo< and 3Lz (e) 3T in the LP, as well as Yuzru’s 3T< (?) in the LP and Kozuka’s 3A< in the SP and a bunch of questionable jumps in the LP.

That would be starting a video war. I don’t think other posters and the moderators are interested to see that. So let’s not get into that, please.

os168 said:
I am against any system or point manipulation, end of. See the above for explanation.

So by your logic, you think that last year’s Japanese Nationals result was manipulated?

os168 said:
I disagree Hanyu should be given a pass and treated like a boy. In Sport in all fairness, everyone should be treated equally whether you are 16 or 27; whether you are a 2 times world champion or a newbie; whether you are a favorite or 10 times loser; whether you sufferer some personal and national tragedy or injuries; or if you are a media darling Vs a total nobody. Nobody deserve a free pass because of who they are, and it should be what they bring on the ice on the day that count the most.

I don’t understand this part. Maybe you think Takahashi got a free pass last year, but I don’t see Yuzru given a free pass here. He completed all technical elements and got PCS that’s fair compared to his competitors. He was not treated as a boy. The judges probably just agreed with you and thought he maxed out 84% in tech.

What does that have to do with being a boy? If a boy maxed out 84% in tech he would still get a high score. And who is “media darling”? Who is “2 times world champion”? Nothing applies here.

Li’Kitsu said:
So if you want to lumb him in whatever group you want too - have a lot of fun doing so. Because it makes perfectly sense that the JSF already backs up Hanyu more than they ever did back up Daisuke. I guess WTT is one of the perfect proofs for that.

os168 said:
Regarding the bolded part. So you DO admit JSF favoured him this time and is perfectly fine with the result? I hope not.

What? It’s obvious to me that Li’Kitsu was being sarcastic. I’m surprised that you didn’t understand that. I remember some Japanese posters think WTT (and Japan Open) are proofs that the JSF lowballed Yuzru because they didn’t give him a chance to participate and Takahashi got skyrocketing scores at these events.

I don’t see any favoring and manipulation at this year’s Japanese Nationals. I saw you suggested something like “The difference could work out something like 2.5 points underscore from Dai for the SP” and “2 points overscore from Hanyu for LP (eg 1-1.25 point off Hanyu's GOEs and PCS wise).” I don’t see where the 2.5 points underscoring in Takahashi’s SP comes from, and I don’t see any GOE and PCS overscoring in Yuzru compared to Takahashi’s GOE and PCS. I just don’t see any evidence of “manipulation” in all your posts, but you sound as if the “manipulation” is a given fact in your newest post…

itoja · Dec 25, 2012

Gee...

lakeside said:
I don’t see any favoring and manipulation at this year’s Japanese Nationals. I saw you suggested something like “The difference could work out something like 2.5 points underscore from Dai for the SP” and “2 points overscore from Hanyu for LP (eg 1-1.25 point off Hanyu's GOEs and PCS wise).” I don’t see where the 2.5 points underscoring in Takahashi’s SP comes from, and I don’t see any GOE and PCS overscoring in Yuzru compared to Takahashi’s GOE and PCS.

You have given your opinion (many times).
Some have different ones.
For some, for example Takahashi’s 4T in the SP wasn't UR so that's + 3.10. And Yuzuru quads should have gotten more negative GOEs, like 4T -1 (he got 0) 4S -2.8 (got -1.80). Only that, and it is 3.10+ 2, enough to win for Takahashi.

You don't agree, we got it, can we move on?

Elsa G · Dec 25, 2012

lakeside said:
I remember Tracy or someone commented at one competition that Yuzru is a perfectionist, so if he thinks he skated 50% of his capability it only means he was not satisfied with his performance and he will try to skate more well next time.

yep,that's Tracy Wilson's comments before his free skate at GPF.Quote"during the short program press conference he said he hopes he will skate his age（I guess 18 means 180 ）today",she though he breaking the world record twice made him a perfectionist

.
But he has been a perfectionist since he was a child.His first coach Shoitirou Tuzuki sensei thought so

.http://24.media.tumblr.com/bbf0b39b8db5aa46e5479c678efeec37/tumblr_mfjmpsGdZf1s0qchdo10_1280.png

let`s talk · Dec 26, 2012

lakeside said:
This year Takahashi skated well in the LP, but Yuzru did not skate as poorly as Takahashi’s LP last year.

So, you are making analogy of Kozuka's FS last season with Dai's FS this season to back up your opinion. Good! At least Dai wasn't overscored last season like Yuzu was this season. Jeez... :laugh:

He got UR calls at all international events this season.

And? No one should care how the skater's jump was judged at another event. That is how sport works or should work. We don't have it now in fs. We have manipulation of CoP and failure of the sport worldwide. Japan, partly Russia and Korea are exceptions due to the individuals: Mao, Dai, Plu and Yuna. Wait till Sochi when two J-cash cows retire, what will be then in J-arenas if the things in this sport will keep going like that.

.

I will only do gifs and screenshots for the jumps that are called by the judges this time.

Thank you. Even if another jump were ur but did't get a call, you don't care. That's fine. Double standards suit CoP perfectly well. I always say that. :biggrin:

Li'Kitsu · Dec 26, 2012

os168 said:
Regarding the bolded part. So you DO admit JSF favoured him this time and is perfectly fine with the result? I hope not. See that is the problem when federation actively push for skaters that took wins off the rightful winner (they have done this at NHK too), it goes against the purpose of a fair competition.

Simply what lakeside said - sarcasm. I'm not agreeing at all that the JSF is pushing Hanyu over Takahashi.
And as lakeside mentioned, Yuzuru was world bronze medalist and didn't get invited to Japan Open - while Dai got 96+ in PCS here. Dumping Dai would be looking different.

OS · Dec 26, 2012

Li'Kitsu said:
Simply what lakeside said - sarcasm. I'm not agreeing at all that the JSF is pushing Hanyu over Takahashi.
And as lakeside mentioned, Yuzuru was world bronze medalist and didn't get invited to Japan Open - while Dai got 96+ in PCS here. Dumping Dai would be looking different.

I am aware of that, but you don't get my point. Japan wasn't pulling for him before at Japan Open, but they were here AFTER he proved he could be a good bet going to the worlds and Sochi so they give him a nice boost here. That's what they do at Nationals, if it is Kozuka who they believe would be a good bet, they'd boost his PCS at nationals etc, just like that have done for Mao and Miki every year leading to the world championship. It is interchangeable seasonal depends on who they want to support. This isn't fair to other competitors they do not back, as evidently seen here in Daisuke and many times Akiko at home events.

I have stated all last season Hanyu was underscored in PCS based on what he put out there, but at this particular competition it is the first time I see they decide to put their full backing to Hanyu and it showed up on his generous PCS and GOEs. If you actually observe what he did in his LP compare to what he did last year, and his early PCS score early in the season, and ALSO his PCS in his SP you should able to observe despite he did less well in his LP, yet the PCS increased.

Li'Kitsu · Dec 27, 2012

os168 said:
I have stated all last season Hanyu was underscored in PCS based on what he put out there, but at this particular competition it is the first time I see they decide to put their full backing to Hanyu and it showed up on his generous PCS and GOEs. If you actually observe what he did in his LP compare to what he did last year, and his early PCS score early in the season, and ALSO his PCS in his SP you should able to observe despite he did less well in his LP, yet the PCS increased.

Is that suppossed to tell me the japanese fed already wanted to back Hanyu up over Takahashi in the SP?
Hanyu's PCS in the SP here: 43.90. At Skate America it was 43.36. Hanyu was clean both times.
For Takahashi on the other hand, he was clean once this season, at the GPF. PCS: 43.14. He wasn't clean here but received a nice 44.65 in PCS.
This is what backing up Hanyu looks like? Sorry but no, if anything, these SP scores look like the fed still wanted Takahashi as their frist.
Okay, then let's look at the FS... yes, Hanyus PCS did rise a lot. Hanyu got 79.56 in SA for a total mess. At the GPF he got 85.16 for a not clean, but good performance (maybe the most comparable to his performance here). At JN, he got 89.7. Takahashi's scores went from 82.66 to 90.22, but here he got 96. Yes, this was the first time he was really clean, but the PCS difference is still very huge. I doubt he'd get those scores internationally (if I agree with it or not). You can argue that Hanyus PCS were a little more inflated compared to his international events than Takahashis, but that alone hardly justifies these outcries and conspiracy theories here.

For the TES: Hanyu's in the SP again is very much in line with his international ones (here 53.78, 53.03 at NHK). For the TES, he got 91.96 at the GPF, where he popped the 4S - nearly 10 points lost! So now he got 97.85 with a shaky landing on both his quads and everything else clean. No, I'm not seeing the major inflatation (compared to his international events!) here at all. And some general national inflatation is to be expected - Takahashi got that too.
Hanyu's technical elements always receive high GOE's when he's clean (rightfully). And here the judges were pretty GOE-happy with both of Hanyu and Takahashi.

emdee · Dec 27, 2012

yep,that's Tracy Wilson's comments before his free skate at GPF.Quote"during the short program press conference he said he hopes he will skate his age（I guess 18 means 180 ）today",she though he breaking the world record twice made him a perfectionist.

Tracy is Hanyu's skating skills coach so her opinion would be from watching him on a day to day basis and not because he broke the record twice.

let`s talk · Dec 27, 2012

Li'Kitsu said:
Hanyu's PCS in the SP here: 43.90. At Skate America it was 43.36.

... and that is when all the talks of Hanyuflation started. The Crown Prince in the Overscored Land. His PCS upper/mid 8s for the Comic Blues is just laughable. His 9 in FS is simply beyond not just sport rules but common sense. The score 9 speaks about the real mastership and usually a long career. Very few skaters cracked 9 even at National events, like Plu or Dai. Even for Chan it took longer time than for Hanyu. The 9-land is what Kurt got at MWO. But to give 9s for the skating of the sick kid who needs food means only one thing: either the judges had sadistic issues and sincerely appreciated such a prog or the score was cooked. :biggrin:

OS · Dec 27, 2012

Li'Kitsu said:
Is that suppossed to tell me the japanese fed already wanted to back Hanyu up over Takahashi in the SP?
Hanyu's PCS in the SP here: 43.90. At Skate America it was 43.36. Hanyu was clean both times.
For Takahashi on the other hand, he was clean once this season, at the GPF. PCS: 43.14. He wasn't clean here but received a nice 44.65 in PCS.
This is what backing up Hanyu looks like? Sorry but no, if anything, these SP scores look like the fed still wanted Takahashi as their frist.
Okay, then let's look at the FS... yes, Hanyus PCS did rise a lot. Hanyu got 79.56 in SA for a total mess. At the GPF he got 85.16 for a not clean, but good performance (maybe the most comparable to his performance here). At JN, he got 89.7. Takahashi's scores went from 82.66 to 90.22, but here he got 96. Yes, this was the first time he was really clean, but the PCS difference is still very huge. I doubt he'd get those scores internationally (if I agree with it or not). You can argue that Hanyus PCS were a little more inflated compared to his international events than Takahashis, but that alone hardly justifies these outcries and conspiracy theories here.

For the TES: Hanyu's in the SP again is very much in line with his international ones (here 53.78, 53.03 at NHK). For the TES, he got 91.96 at the GPF, where he popped the 4S - nearly 10 points lost! So now he got 97.85 with a shaky landing on both his quads and everything else clean. No, I'm not seeing the major inflatation (compared to his international events!) here at all. And some general national inflatation is to be expected - Takahashi got that too.
Hanyu's technical elements always receive high GOE's when he's clean (rightfully). And here the judges were pretty GOE-happy with both of Hanyu and Takahashi.

Yes to your first question. In anycase you should take a larger sampling of statistics if you really want to compare it this way than just 2 events over the same season. You ought to consider over a career worth, and compare with the likes of Patrick, Daisuke and Kozuka at least and actually see what they did.

Miki Ando's PCS for example went up by outrageous 14 points over a season without 3/3s or a decent program, thanks to a massive boost at the Japanese Nationals which carried her over to to 4CCs then WC which it calmed down a bit but not enough due to the narrow corridors the judges assign to the momentums +-.25, 0.5 etc. An example of momentum build with a strong federation backing could look something like

1st event (B event)
Good PCS to start off with since B level tends to be more generous with PCS (Did you see Hanyu's mark here as well as his R&J FS mark last year? It was all 7.something)
2nd event (GP)
+.25
3rd event (GP
+.25
4th event (GPF)
+ .25
4th event
+.5 (at Nationals)
5th event
+0.25 (4CC)
6th event
-.25 (Worlds generally have the highest quality of judging since it is under the greatest scrutiny also. So the mark should theoretically calm down tot earth unless of politics.
Tactic 1: risk mistakes with upgraded content to compensate for any drop in PCS coming down to reality. Tactic 2: You can downgrade BV content like Miki Ando at WC 2011 to benefit from higher PCS boost due to less error)...

that is how momentum could work like. If you mess up one of your skate just make sure you don't mess up the next, otherwise it may drop. If you improved upon an overmarked PCS it is even better, because it won't come down as fast if you mess up.

It especially advantage skaters with more home events with strong federation backing like Japanese skaters, who has 3 home events of the year.
It advantages skaters who take on a full season with as many event as possible.
It disadvantage skaters who only assigned a few events or NO event of the year, hence the lessening of the GP spots makes it really unfair for the lower ranked skaters to catch up with the elite. That was why I was really worried about Mirai and her chances. Plus also for skaters like Yuna Kim, or Plushy, or even Evan if they only partake a 1 or 2 competition in the year and still want to do WC not having not built any momentum leading to the competition. Another major disadvantage is even if they did a wow, statistically it does't make it easy for the judges to get it right the first time. This doesn't apply to everyone all the time, but it is the general trend I noticed.

I blamed Miki's WC 2011 win started this winning by PCS strategy by the ladies, to work on consistency instead of taking risks, The 14 points PCS she got over the 2011 season was a travesty for this sport and how i really dislike about COP and politics in the sport, (I haven't bothered to check on Carolina's records but I expect it would be something like this), she boosted the most during Japan Nationals and also 4CCs because Mao was in a slump and she had the full Japanese federation behind her, and she did this without a 3/3 and imo a contrived program without decent transitions and alot of this poseography that you see a lot in Carolina's program now. You compare her to Akiko who were 2nd in both her GPF, you'd see Akiko's PCS barely moved and she wasn't even able to representing Japan that year for WC.

Finally I recognize the flaw of the system and I trust my own eyes and judgement more than some National judges that have their own agendas to push on. That is why I come here, to discuss and to vent. Clearly.... many does too.

Tommmy · Dec 27, 2012

Well, at Nationals everyone got PCS boosts, not just Hanyu.
Even Kozuka's disastrous FP got higher PCS than well performed FP at GPF by 2 points.
If that's the case, I think Hanyu's 4 points rise from GPF is pretty understandable.

pitterpatter · Dec 27, 2012

Li'Kitsu said:
Is that suppossed to tell me the japanese fed already wanted to back Hanyu up over Takahashi in the SP?
Hanyu's PCS in the SP here: 43.90. At Skate America it was 43.36. Hanyu was clean both times.
For Takahashi on the other hand, he was clean once this season, at the GPF. PCS: 43.14. He wasn't clean here but received a nice 44.65 in PCS.
This is what backing up Hanyu looks like? Sorry but no, if anything, these SP scores look like the fed still wanted Takahashi as their frist.
Okay, then let's look at the FS... yes, Hanyus PCS did rise a lot. Hanyu got 79.56 in SA for a total mess. At the GPF he got 85.16 for a not clean, but good performance (maybe the most comparable to his performance here). At JN, he got 89.7. Takahashi's scores went from 82.66 to 90.22, but here he got 96. Yes, this was the first time he was really clean, but the PCS difference is still very huge. I doubt he'd get those scores internationally (if I agree with it or not). You can argue that Hanyus PCS were a little more inflated compared to his international events than Takahashis, but that alone hardly justifies these outcries and conspiracy theories here.

For the TES: Hanyu's in the SP again is very much in line with his international ones (here 53.78, 53.03 at NHK). For the TES, he got 91.96 at the GPF, where he popped the 4S - nearly 10 points lost! So now he got 97.85 with a shaky landing on both his quads and everything else clean. No, I'm not seeing the major inflatation (compared to his international events!) here at all. And some general national inflatation is to be expected - Takahashi got that too.
Hanyu's technical elements always receive high GOE's when he's clean (rightfully). And here the judges were pretty GOE-happy with both of Hanyu and Takahashi.

:thumbsup:

Li'Kitsu · Dec 27, 2012

os168.... I'm not really getting why you are coming up with Miki now. Yes, consistency boosts your scores. You can see that in Ashley too. So what? What does that have to do with the japanese fed favoring Hanyu over Takahashi with both of them being rather prone to mistakes? That's not even close to being the same... and just because sakter X receives very high PCS at nationals, it doesn't mean it will be the same at international events. You make it sound like the judges had some long-term masterplan behind their marks.
Yes, reputation judging exists.
Yes, consistency might boost your scores.
Yes, sometimes there seem to be national biases (at least some people think there are).
And all of those can exist under any kind of scoring system...
I however don't think any of those apply here. I'm sticking to what I said in my last post.

OS · Dec 27, 2012

Li'Kitsu said:
os168.... I'm not really getting why you are coming up with Miki now. Yes, consistency boosts your scores. You can see that in Ashley too. So what? What does that have to do with the japanese fed favoring Hanyu over Takahashi with both of them being rather prone to mistakes? That's not even close to being the same... and just because sakter X receives very high PCS at nationals, it doesn't mean it will be the same at international events. You make it sound like the judges had some long-term masterplan behind their marks.
Yes, reputation judging exists.
Yes, consistency might boost your scores.
Yes, sometimes there seem to be national biases (at least some people think there are).
And all of those can exist under any kind of scoring system...
I however don't think any of those apply here. I'm sticking to what I said in my last post.

Of course it does. Put it this way, if this is not Japanese Nationals, no federation involvement. This competition did not happen this year but last year. Does the score reflect what they put out on the ice ON THE DAY? If you think it is still does, then I have no more comment, because I see it differently, quite simply.

chloepoco · Dec 27, 2012

Li'Kitsu said:
os168.... I'm not really getting why you are coming up with Miki now. Yes, consistency boosts your scores. You can see that in Ashley too. So what? What does that have to do with the japanese fed favoring Hanyu over Takahashi with both of them being rather prone to mistakes? That's not even close to being the same... and just because sakter X receives very high PCS at nationals, it doesn't mean it will be the same at international events. You make it sound like the judges had some long-term masterplan behind their marks.
Yes, reputation judging exists.
Yes, consistency might boost your scores.
Yes, sometimes there seem to be national biases (at least some people think there are).
And all of those can exist under any kind of scoring system...
I however don't think any of those apply here. I'm sticking to what I said in my last post.

Yes, exactly.
Or maybe, os168 has some inside knowledge into the inner workings of that evil JSF.

let`s talk · Dec 28, 2012

Li'Kitsu said:
What does that have to do with the japanese fed favoring Hanyu over Takahashi with both of them being rather prone to mistakes?

You folks make it sound like this is nothing wrong with that. Federations are not supposed to favour certain skaters in the first place. They are supposed to be impartial. That's charming to see how some fs fans support political games and then we feel surprised why the creditibility and popularity of this sport is where it is. Thanks, guys. :rolleye:

chloepoco said:
Or maybe, os168 has some inside knowledge into the inner workings of that evil JSF.

Very imformative. With the same success I can say that maybe you have some inside knowledge into the inner workings of the kind JSF to claim that nothing dirty is going on. :laugh:

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