Kaetlyn Osmond 2013 World Champion?

wallylutz said:

FYI, Kaetlyn already beat Gracie & Elizaveta at Skate Canada. And Leonova won't be going to Worlds, so no point to compare her. We will know more after 4CC, that's assuming Wagner will make it through the U.S. Nationals because her spot is not guaranteed - you know how the U.S. Nationals work, it can be quite cruel for a skater who simply had a bad day. Asada is her own biggest enemy, she pretty much determines her own fate but she will need her jumps landed cleanly or she will be at the mercy of the panel depending on whether they are lenient or not.

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1.) We don't know for sure if Leonova will or won't be at Worlds. They haven't named that team yet --it depends on how Nikol does at Euros.
2.) Yes I already noted that she has beat Gracie and Elizaveta. But that doesn't mean that it's a guarantee that she will definitely beat them from here on out. Both are capable of high TES scores. Both have had time to refine their programs.
3.) Wagner has been quite consistent all season long; but yes her spot is not guaranteed.

My only point to say that just because she won her competitions so far means does not mean she's a shoo-in to win Worlds because, as I said she has yet to face a number of key competitors.

I agree, let's see how she does at 4CC. Another data point is always good.

Among the newcomers to the senior scene, she beat Gracie when she was at her absolute worst this season and Liza when she was still recovering from summer injury. If both go to Worlds and are clean, their PCS will continue to rise as a measure of appreciation of their cleanness and the difficulty they include in their programs (if they both execute all planned content the PE mark will be quite good as the "E" part will be outstanding with that difficulty). Sotnikova has had focus issues this season and is making "stupid" mistakes that are precluding her from being where she COULD be, but she should not be counted out. Kaetlyn will need to be clean to maintain or improve upon the PCS she got at SC, as I would suspect that if she has a so-so outing (ie sloppy or a couple mistakes), her PCS won't be that high as she's currently building a reputation regarding her skating so her starting point isn't the same as say Mao Asada who had the 7th best TES at Worlds last year and the 2nd highest PCS (or something like that).
In general, of those considered the top skaters, Kim, Asada, Wagner, and Kostner probably have about a one mistake advantage right now based on where they are scoring PCS-wise.

But, as we saw in the US Nationals Junior Ladies SP last night, sometimes the tech crew puts the ice slippery side up for a warm up group, so anything can happen....

I would think skaters like Mao, Kostner, suanuki, Wagner all have at least one major mistake lead and Kim two major mistakes. Kaetlyn will have to be clean to hold off the next tier ofladies too - Gold or Mira or Gao et al, the Russians, Murakami, etc

She's got her work cut out for her.

Kaetlyn has done well this year but like someone said, she has yet to face the big name/medal favorites. Skating on the same ice as Kim, Kostner, Asada and Wagner will not be the same as going against the field at Skate Canada (where her only real competition was Suzuki) or the names she beat at Nebelhorn, Challenge or nationals. Worlds is a much bigger and tougher stage to deliver on and a lot will be on the line...

The start order for the Worlds SP is based on ISU World Standing. The ladies with the top 12 World Ranking will skate in the final two groups for the SP. Kaetlyn's current rank (prior to Euros and 4CC) is in the mid 40s. Even if she skates well at 4CC, she won't move up much higher because the ladies above her in rank will also get points from 4CC/Euros.

So she will skate in the earlier SP groups, where the PCS scores tend to be lower. She must score well in the SP so as to get into the top 12, putting her in the last two groups to skate in the FS. To medal, she'd have to be in the final group (top 6 after the SP).

chuckm said:

The start order for the Worlds SP is based on ISU World Standing. The ladies with the top 12 World Ranking will skate in the final two groups for the SP. Kaetlyn's current rank (prior to Euros and 4CC) is in the mid 40s. Even if she skates well at 4CC, she won't move up much higher because the ladies above her in rank will also get points from 4CC/Euros.

So she will skate in the earlier SP groups, where the PCS scores tend to be lower. She must score well in the SP so as to get into the top 12, putting her in the last two groups to skate in the FS. To medal, she'd have to be in the final group (top 6 after the SP).

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This brings up a very interesting situation, I think Yuna is currently ranked something like 47 below Rachel Flatt and above Kaetlyn so she is likely to skate before everyone since Kaetlyn's ranking will likely to rise after taking part in 4CC, which Yuna can't do due to the Special Olympics responsibilities.

Yu-Na is the reigning Olympic Champion. I am sure that if she skates as well as she did at NRW (3z+3t, 3f, 2a) she will score as high as she did there (72.27, with PCS scores 8.69, 8.31, 8.88, 8.75, 8.94).

Kaetlyn's last international appearance was at SC, where she did 3t+3t, 3f, 2a and scored 60.56 (6.68, 6.61, 6.96, 6.86, 7.07).

chuckm said:

The start order for the Worlds SP is based on ISU World Standing. The ladies with the top 12 World Ranking will skate in the final two groups for the SP. Kaetlyn's current rank (prior to Euros and 4CC) is in the mid 40s. Even if she skates well at 4CC, she won't move up much higher because the ladies above her in rank will also get points from 4CC/Euros.

So she will skate in the earlier SP groups, where the PCS scores tend to be lower. She must score well in the SP so as to get into the top 12, putting her in the last two groups to skate in the FS. To medal, she'd have to be in the final group (top 6 after the SP).

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Hey Chuck, I think it would help this speculation if you actually do a reality check of your hypothesis.

Here is World Standing for Ladies :

http://www.isuresults.com/ws/ws/wsladies.htm

Osmond is currently 48th but many of the skaters above her will not be going to Worlds. First, the maximum number of extra points that Osmond can pick up at 4CC is 840 - by winning the event. 988 + 840 = 1828

So let's eliminate those who will definitely and most likely won't be at Worlds from the list :

- Rachael Flatt
- Bingwa Geng
- Hae Jin Kim
- Yretha SILETE
- Risa SHOJI
- Yuki NISHINO
- Satoko MIYAHARA
- Kristina ZASEEVA
- Caroline ZHANG
- Isabelle OLSSON
- Cynthia PHANEUF
- Gerli LIINAMÄE
- Miki ANDO
- Sarah HECKEN
- Polina SHELEPEN
- Amelie LACOSTE
- Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA or Alena Leonova
- Haruka IMAI
- Agnes ZAWADZKI
- Julia LIPNITSKAIA
- Ksenia MAKAROVA
- Kiira KORPI

48 - 22 = 26th already

We are not done yet.

Let's now adjust Osmond's ranking after a score boost from 4cc, her score going in the Worlds will be about 1650-1828. Let's readjust the list from those who currently have less than 1828 but based on the previous Euro/4CC results, will likely not surpass this total after their respective Continental Championship :

- Yu Na Kim (will not go to 4CC)
- Kexin Zhang (Score = 1072, will most likely below Osmond in total score after 4CC)
- Sonia Lafuente (currently 1325 but finished 15th at least year's Euro)
- Monika SIMANCIKOVA (Currently 1342 but finished 14th at last year's Euro)
- Natalia POPOVA (Currently 1351 but finished 12th at last year's Euro)
- Jenna MCCORKELL (Currently 1492 but finished only 18th at last year's Euro)

26 - 6 = 20

We are still not done yet.

Now we need to adjust for those higher on the list but due to the limited number of spots their federation has at Worlds, will not be able to make it.

USA : (Gold, Gao, Nagasu, Wagner, Czisny) - any 3 since USA only has 2 spots for Worlds
Sweden : (Helgesson X 2 ) - any 1 since Sweden only has 1 spot for Worlds

20 - 4 = 16th

At approximately 16th place, she will be randomly drawn in the 3rd Group. Note that the 4th and 5th groups are randomized such that top seed skater could go in the before last group, but not necessarily the last group. For example, someone who skated 18th on the 3rd group at the 2012 Worlds was immediately followed by Mao Asada, the #19 or first skater of the 4th group and Alena Leonova, the #20 skater or the second skater of the 4th group.

Thanks for brining up this great point Chuck, but a close examination of the situation shows that this is a minor concern as being in the 3rd Group really isn't that bad since they will immediately be followed by the top rank skaters, so with luck, judges will in fact be able to see Osmond just before top seeded skaters within less than 20-30 minutes as opposed to hours after + Zamboni break. Besides, with the Worlds in Canada, judges will naturally watch the homecountry favorite more intensely, thus less likely to forget about her if she skates well. And of course in order to skate in the 3rd Group at Worlds SP, she will need to do well at 4CC, essentially make it to the podium. Put it this way, if she can't even podium at 4CC, what are her chances of making to the podium at Worlds?

chuckm said:

Yu-Na is the reigning Olympic Champion. I am sure that if she skates as well as she did at NRW (3z+3t, 3f, 2a) she will score as high as she did there (72.27, with PCS scores 8.69, 8.31, 8.88, 8.75, 8.94).

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If Yu Na skates well, the early order in the SP wouldn't matter very much. But if she didn't skate well, that will be a long way to climb. A big shot who skates poorly in the last groups will see substantial support in their PCS but a big shot who didn't skate well in early group will often get a lower PCS than if they had skated later. Case in point : Lu Chen, the 1995 World Champion, 1996 & reigning World Silver Medalist at the time and 1994 Olympic Bronze Medalist failed to even qualify for the Free Skate at the 1997 Worlds after she bombed her SP in the earlier group.

wallylutz said:

If Yu Na skates well, the early order in the SP wouldn't matter very much. But if she didn't skate well, that will be a long way to climb. A big shot who skates poorly in the last groups will see substantial support in their PCS but a big shot who didn't skate well in early group will often get a lower PCS than if they had skated later. Case in point : Lu Chen, the 1995 World Champion, 1996 & reigning World Silver Medalist at the time and 1994 Olympic Bronze Medalist failed to even qualify for the Free Skate at the 1997 Worlds after she bombed her SP in the earlier group.

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If Yuna skates well, she can go first and it wouldn't matter. Shen/Zhao skated first in the SP in Vancouver and still won the SP.

kwanatic said:

She's got her work cut out for her.

Kaetlyn has done well this year but like someone said, she has yet to face the big name/medal favorites. Skating on the same ice as Kim, Kostner, Asada and Wagner will not be the same as going against the field at Skate Canada (where her only real competition was Suzuki) or the names she beat at Nebelhorn, Challenge or nationals. Worlds is a much bigger and tougher stage to deliver on and a lot will be on the line...

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Is there any word if any of these ladies will be at 4CC (minus Kostner, obviously)? It would be a great warm-up/test to see how Kaetlyn stacks up against them and also give her a taste of the pressure on her to compare well to them.

I love Kaetlyn's skating and think she has a bright future ahead of her but am not predicting her to beat the best in the world just yet. It took Rochette quite a long time to get to the top. I think it will take Osmond less and she may even be a dark horse for Sochi but don't see her reaching the top until after the next Olympics.

Fruit Loops said:

Is there any word if any of these ladies will be at 4CC (minus Kostner, obviously)? It would be a great warm-up/test to see how Kaetlyn stacks up against them and also give her a taste of the pressure on her to compare well to them.

I love Kaetlyn's skating and think she has a bright future ahead of her but am not predicting her to beat the best in the world just yet. It took Rochette quite a long time to get to the top. I think it will take Osmond less and she may even be a dark horse for Sochi but don't see her reaching the top until after the next Olympics.

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I believe Kim has already ruled out 4CC; Asada has been named to the team. The USA has yet to name a team (will be done post Nationals).

good video+good article
http://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/figure-s...es-that-create-those-golden-moments-1.1125541

Her coach, Ravi Walia calls her unique.

“I’ve never taught someone like [her],” Walia said. “She’s so driven, and she loves the excitement of competition.”

The last Edmonton-based skater to win the same title, Susan Humphreys, met Osmond Tuesday, and said the blossoming athlete is the total package.

“She can jump, she can spin, she has charisma, she’s very comfortable competing,” Humphreys said. “Those are the things that create those golden moments.”

Osmond’s next major competition is the World Figure Skating Championships in London, ON, in March.

It’s a stage Osmond is looking forward to making her mark on.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/spor...o+Osmond+head+little+early/7857349/story.html
According to Vipond, there’s still work to be done on the programs.
“I’m always very picky with my work, right now I’m getting down to the nitty gritty, it’s the finest of details,” he said.

Walia is the only championship level ISU technical specialist in Canada. Over the years, he has used his knowledge to help Osmond boost “the base values” in her program and get “the quality marks that are so important.”

If Kim is serious about winning Worlds she needs to go to 4CC. So far she's had no competition at all this season when she's skated.

Taan said:

Well I think a good reason to be excited is Kaetlyn is undefeated since turning senior, winning every senior competition she has entered.

1st victory Nebelhorn,
2nd victory Skate Canada,
3rd victory Challenge,
4th victory Nationals.

Can she keep her undefeated streak going?

If she keeps her undefeated streak going and she can win 4cc , she will undoubtedly be the favorite to win gold at worlds, people.

GO KAETLYN GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :yay:

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I believe Kaetlyn did not win her first competition of the year which was the The U.S. International Figure Skating Classic. Both Agnes and Gracie beat her.

Jammers said:

I believe Kaetlyn did not win her first competition of the year which was the The U.S. International Figure Skating Classic. Both Agnes and Gracie beat her.

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Kaetlyn was not at the US Classic, Amelie was ( who got bronze behind Agnes and Gracie). She was at Nebelhorn, which she won.

But if we're going to get nitpicky, she didn't win Skate Detroit. She was third behind Hannah Miller and Gracie. I guess one could argue it was an "off season competition." But technically if you include that competition, she hasn't won every senior competition then. But still 4 out of 5 is pretty good!

Three of Kaetlyn's four victories were on Canadian ice, and two were all-Canadian competitions. She hasn't faced full top-level competition yet and won't at 4CC (only top US and Japanese there, with Kim out). It's much too soon to predict a coronation.

chuckm said:

Three of Kaetlyn's four victories were on Canadian ice, and two were all-Canadian competitions. She hasn't faced full top-level competition yet and won't at 4CC (only top US and Japanese there, with Kim out). It's much too soon to predict a coronation.

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The bigger issue is that she hasn't gotten the scores internationally that would put her on the world podium. A 116 LP (from SC) won't get the job done. While that score includes a fall, there are at least 10 skaters who can match that score without having to be totally clean.

Miss Daisy, do I have your list right?
Wagner, Asada, Suzuki, Kim, Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova, Gold, Murakami, Nagasu, Kostner, Korpi (assuming it's Nagasu or Gold)