Calculating 2018 Olympic results under new rules?

[emmaleemochizuki]

I just wonder. If only 1 jump and 3 jump passes in SP and FS have a 10% bonus.

And then factoring everything in with the new GOE system of +/-5 instead of 3 in percentages.

Is it possible that Zhenya might score higher with the exact same layout and performance than Alina if we are using the new system to evaluate their Olympic performance?

I remember Zhenya having higher quality. But Alina will always win in terms of base value. Anyone did a calculation? Would love to see how it turns out.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

I just wonder. If only 1 jump and 3 jump passes in SP and FS have a 10% bonus.

And then factoring everything in with the new GOE system of +/-5 instead of 3 in percentages.

Is it possible that Zhenya might score higher with the exact same layout and performance than Alina if we are using the new system to evaluate their Olympic performance?

I remember Zhenya having higher quality. But Alina will always win in terms of base value. Anyone did a calculation? Would love to see how it turns out.

Yes it is possible if GOE was the same as given in 2018 just based on second half jump rules. The scores were so close (<1point difference), and Zagitova Backloaded like crazy.

 

[esteticlove]

I remember Zhenya having higher quality.

Back in 2018 I was a hardcore Medvedeva fan and I was rooting for her at the Olympics, but even for me it was evident that she didn't have the higher quality of jumps. At least not for 3F and 3Lz. Of course, we shouldn't neglect the fact that she was injured. I won't bother to calculate what scores they could have had under the new rules, because I think that Alina didn't win just due to her backloading. Their SPs had pretty much the same element order, spins, then steps and all jumps in the 2nd half. Alina's combo is more difficult and it has to receive more points, hence, she would have won the SP anyway. As for the FS, it could be that Alina's 2A-3T under the current rules could have gotten an UR call, but then Evgenia's 3Lz should definitely have been called for a wrong edge. In total, I don't think that the result could have been different.

 

[Skatesocs]

No one was expecting... a literal rehash, now, were they?

 

[flanker]

Yes it is possible if GOE was the same as given in 2018 just based on second half jump rules. The scores were so close (<1point difference), and Zagitova Backloaded like crazy.

Hey. Evgenia's SP was fully backloaded as well and in the FS only two of her jumping passes weren't. Where is your line for "backloading like crazy". Rather with the name than with the layout, I would say.

 

[emmaleemochizuki]

To clarify I love both athletes, just curious about scoring.

Scoring in figure skating in general is never 100% fair.

 

[flanker]

To clarify I love both athletes, just curious about scoring.

Scoring in figure skating in general is never 100% fair.

You would have also decide how to transfer +3/-3 into +5/-5. Another thing is the BV of the elements was different in 2018 than now. The other thing is that the layout would be naturally different. When now only the last jumping pass in the SP gaind the 10 % bonus, strong skater won't put 2A as the last jump, as they truly do since 2018/19 season. Similarly at least two combos would be put in the second half of the program, so just shallow recalculating won¨t solve anything. In principlle it would be just basic summation, but honestly the result tells you anything.

And in reality, while Alina blamed for "backloading like crazy" still three years after the olympics by salty people in 2019 worlds she's proven she doesn't need backloading to win.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

You would have also decide how to transfer +3/-3 into +5/-5. Another thing is the BV of the elements was different in 2018 than now. The other thing is that the layout would be naturally different. When now only the last jumping pass in the SP gaind the 10 % bonus, strong skater won't put 2A as the last jump, as they truly do since 2018/19 season. Similarly at least two combos would be put in the second half of the program, so just shallow recalculating won¨t solve anything. In principlle it would be just basic summation, but honestly the result tells you anything.

And in reality, while Alina blamed for "backloading like crazy" still three years after the olympics by salty people in 2019 worlds she's proven she doesn't need backloading to win.

I'm not blaming her,
simply stating that in the modern system with the GOE's given Medvedeva would have won as it was only down to one point.
I agree Zagitova deserved to win. I think Medvedeva should have been called on Lutz anyways but she wasn't. I was answering the question.

 

[flanker]

I'm not blaming her,
simply stating that in the modern system with the GOE's given Medvedeva would have won as it was only down to one point.
I agree Zagitova deserved to win. I think Medvedeva should have been called on Lutz anyways but she wasn't. I was answering the question.

Your vocabulary about her doesn't show that.

As for claiming the victory, unless you can say how the +3/-3 GOE would be transfered into +5/-5 you can't say. Also remember that in old system the GOE for 3S was the same as for 3Lz, which now isn't, so even if we would transfer let's say Evgenia's and Alina's +2 as today's +3, Alina would benefit from it thanks to the higher BV while Medvedeva's GOW would be reduced.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

Unless you can say how the +3/-3 GOE would be transfered into +5/-5 you can't say. Also remember that in old system the GOE for 3S was the same as for 3Lz, which now isn't, so even if we would transfer let's say Evgenia's and Alina's +2 as today's +3, Alina would benefit from it thanks to the higher BV while Medvedeva's GOW would be reduced.

They'd likely widen the gap with the GOE between Medvedeva and Zagitova (wrongly imo, but it'd have probably happened).

 

[alexocfp]

Well, given who this thread is about, this is about to get good...

With such razor thin margins, you can even ask if the result would be different with different judges.

The backloading strategy was a brilliant bit of tactics that swung the event to Zagitova.

Maybe if Medvedeva had altered her program on the fly, yes I know that’s difficult, and saved a few jumps for later, result would most probably been different.

 

[ruga]

Counted just for fun:
Initial scores
Alina 239.57
Evgenia 238.26

BV and GOEs same as 2018, layouts same, bonus only for last 1/3 jumps:
Evgenia: 235.75
Alina: 234.62

However, if that rule applied, their layouts would have been different. I made an assumption that they both do solo jump as their last in SP and their two easier combos+solo jump in FP. Then the results are:
Evgenia: 236.13
Alina: 235.72
If Alina moved 3Lz3Lo combo to 2nd half instead of 3F2T2Lo, she would've received additional 0.35 points and their results would have been crazy close with Alina at 236.07. But I'm probably going too far with assumptions already.

 

[alexocfp]

Counted just for fun:
Initial scores
Alina 239.57
Evgenia 238.26

BV and GOEs same as 2018, layouts same, bonus only for last 1/3 jumps:
Evgenia: 235.75
Alina: 234.62

However, if that rule applied, their layouts would have been different. I made an assumption that they both do solo jump as their last in SP and their two easier combos+solo jump in FP. Then the results are:
Evgenia: 236.13
Alina: 235.72
If Alina moved 3Lz3Lo combo to 2nd half instead of 3F2T2Lo, she would've received additional 0.35 points and their results would have been crazy close with Alina at 236.07. But I'm probably going too far with assumptions already.

I’m expecting to see 2 identical scores any time now.

That competition is a true, real life sporting example of “it could’ve gone either way.”

 

[flanker]

They'd likely widen the gap with the GOE between Medvedeva and Zagitova (wrongly imo, but it'd have probably happened).

OK, I truly did some little math, just for the SP and only for jumps.

Actual scores at Peyongchang for jumps with GOE:

Alina 26.20 (BV 21.67)
Evgenia 24.00 (BV 19.80)

The difference in score is 2.20 point (the BV difference is 1.87 point).

Under the current system, supposing the layout would be the same, 2A as the only jump with bonus (which is truly hypothetical), with supposing +3 marks on all jumps (which is BTW little pro-Evgenia, because her marks for jumps were actually slightly lower than Alina's, but I am truly lazy to somehow transfer their actual marks into the current system just for such hypothesis):

Alina 24.08 (BV 19.73)
Evgenia 22.08 (BV 18.03)

The difference in score is 2.00 points (the BV difference is 1.70 point), just 0.2 lower and with hypothetical scenario that all jumps received +3.

My conclusion is the result would be the same. Case closed.

 

[lesnar001]

I am admittedly biased (although I am a fan of both's skating).

I don't know what the changes to the system would have meant to the scores.
But if I were a judge, I would have rewarded Alina for putting her 3Lz-3Lo later in the program after pulling back on it the first attempt under any scoring system that ever existed or could exist.
I know that skaters train for these situations, but you rarely see it done successfully (not even from Alina).
And then to have the presence of mind to do it in such a high pressure situation.

I honestly believe if she had done the 3Lz-3Lo on her first attempt, she would have finished 2nd at the Olympics.

So if both skaters did the exact same program under the new rules, I don't know what the scores would be, but I think the result would be the same. Of course that could just be my sentimentality showing.

 

[yume]

I honestly believe if she had done the 3Lz-3Lo on her first attempt, she would have finished 2nd at the Olympics.

She got 158 in team event with 3lz-3lo on her first attempt. Scores only go up after team event (with clean skates), they never decrease.

 

[4everchan]

what scoring system can make Osmond win gold?

 

[zanadude]

What is the meaning of this exercise? Surely the skaters would have adapted their programs to whatever the rules were at the time of the competition, making this an apples to oranges comparison at best.

And how would you even do this for the men, given that reduction of the free skate program...

 

[alexocfp]

what scoring system can make Osmond win gold?

The suitcase stuffed with money is a tried and true winning scoring system. Haha

 

[TontoK]

If you recalcuate the 2018 results using the 1972 rules, Trixie Schuba wins in a romp.

Skaters and their teams aren't illiterate; they can read the rule book. The design programs to deliver the maximum point potential for the particular athlete, incorporating strategies to maximize good elements/artistry and to minimize the opposite. If different rules were in place, they wouldn't have skated the same programs.