Can Carolina Kostner win the 2014 Olympic title?

[ForeverFish]

Coming from you that is practically a guarantee the reverse will be true. I dont think I have ever seen you be right on anything in your life.

Wow, that was unnecessarily harsh.

Carolina was scoring 70+ PCS in the FS with a fall and a popped jump. In the SP, she fell and still outscored Yuna in PCS -- rightfully or not, the judges gave it to her. The cards are not exactly aligned against her; the question is whether or not Carolina CAN skate a clean FS when it matters most.

 

[pangtongfan]

Like I said that was when Kostner was reigning World Champion and Kim had been out of competition for years. Look at the two over their careers and it is easy to who typically gets highers PCS even when they skate comparably well, and even in the few instances Kostner skated as cleanly as Kim. I am not saying Kim`s skating is a stratosphere better in every conceivable way, but when the actual skating is close it generally comes down to who is the other intangible factors I listed, and there is a huge difference to a state when Kim is again the established dominant skater, and when Kostner was the reigning World Champion for the only time of her career. It is quite laughable any person would think the judges will score the two the same way as to when Kostner was World Champion vs now that Kim is back to being the World Champion and the established dominant skater again. Not to mention Kim`s short program last year was super boring and bad in many ways, and deserving of the lower PCS she got (and would have gotten even lower if it were a lesser known skater). Probably her most boring program ever.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It is quite laughable any person would think the judges will score the two the same way as to when Kostner was World Champion vs now that Kim is back to being the World Champion and the established dominant skater again. Not to mention Kim`s short program last year was super boring and bad in many ways, and deserving of the lower PCS she got (and would have gotten even lower if it were a lesser known skater). Probably her most boring program ever.

Usually when people say something is "laughable" it is because they are trying to dismiss something that is a legitimate argument without relying on evidence or facts. You attribute Yuna's lower PCS to her inferior program. Who is to say Carolina cannot have superior programs this season? The judges absolutely do not care who the dominant skater is. Look at Michelle vs Irina; at every Worlds, the cleaner skater won, regardless of who was reigning champion or who had momentum. It is laughable to think that a 7 clean triple LP from Caro could not earn better marks than a 6 triple LP from Yuna (although I suppose a 7 triple LP from Caro is a laughable idea as well).

 

[sk8ingcoach]

Atleast most people here can agree that only a clean Kostner or Asada would even come close to beating a clean Kim. Not silly nonsense of Gold, Osmond or Tuk.

If Kostner is clean, i would hope that her PCS are atleast 2 points higher as i believe she deserves them. BV would be very similar especially in FP as Kostner has 1 extra triple but Kim has a 2nd lutz instead of a toe loop. Both will receive great GOE, higher than Asada atleast. If both are clean ( highly doubtful ) it really could come down to some judges giving a +2 and not a +3.

Yes at worlds there was a big gap between Kost and Kim. But if kostner was clean with a 3lo* (+6.7 with GOE) and a clean 3S* with no fall (+5.7 with GOE). Plus an extra 4 points for no fall on the 3T+3T. Then the increase components marks for clean programs ( lets say another 4 points to match kims PCS).Then 21 point gap doesnt look so big if you consider what Kostner could potentially achieve. I think it is absolutely a possibility for Kostner to win Gold if she is Perfect. But she MUST be perfect if Kim is going to perform like she did at Worlds 2013. if not she has no chance

 

[npavel]

yes, I too think that a perfect Carolina could win gold. The fact she isn't reigning world champion could just help taking away the expectations on her. Last year she took some time off from competition and did only two ISU competitions. That gave her time to regroup, get back the 3F-3T and 3Z. Now she is back again and for me she is at Kim's level. I really hope it will be a perfect skate from her, and that could bring her gold.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

yes, I too think that a perfect Carolina could win gold. The fact she isn't reigning world champion could just help taking away the expectations on her. Last year she took some time off from competition and did only two ISU competitions. That gave her time to regroup, get back the 3F-3T and 3Z. Now she is back again and for me she is at Kim's level. I really hope it will be a perfect skate from her, and that could bring her gold.

Hmm, I wouldn't say she "got back" the 3F-3T... she executed it once. Like Ten, I'm waiting to see if she can replicate it throughout next season. It's great for her confidence though to get it back, and it's the only reason I would actually justify her silver medal, considering her slew of technical errors across both programs.