What Are the Probability of the Following for 2022-23 Season?

[lariko]

Hi guys, in your opinion, what are the probability (above or below 50%) of the following things to happen in 2022-2023 Season?

1. Ilya Malinin making the GPF
2. Kurakova or Gubanova making GPF
3. Frolova representing another country in the second half of the season
4. New Philippine pair making GPF
5. Safina/Berulava making GPF
6. Uno repeating gold at the worlds
7. Russian juniors allowed to compete in JWC
8. Grassl makes GPF

 

[4everchan]

Hi guys, in your opinion, what are the probability (above or below 50%) of the following things to happen in 2022-2023 Season?

1. Ilya Malinin making the GPF 90 %
2. Kurakova or Gubanova making GPF 33%
3. Frolova representing another country in the second half of the season 0 %
4. New Philippine pair making GPF 0%
5. Safina/Berulava making GPF 50%
6. Uno repeating gold at the worlds 50 %
7. Russian juniors allowed to compete in JWC 25 %

 

[GoneWithTheWind]

Hi guys, in your opinion, what are the probability (above or below 50%) of the following things to happen in 2022-2023 Season?

1. Ilya Malinin making the GPF
2. Kurakova or Gubanova making GPF
3. Frolova representing another country in the second half of the season
4. New Philippine pair making GPF
5. Safina/Berulava making GPF
6. Uno repeating gold at the worlds
7. Russian juniors allowed to compete in JWC

In my opinion:

1. Definitely above 50%, but may be dependent on how consistent he can be with his difficult layout. I'm really looking forward to seeing Ilia next season though regardless!
2. Above 50%: Gubanova has a great shot at GPF. For Kurakova, it'll depend much more on where she gets assigned and how hard she gets dinged with URs.
3. No idea with this one; I don't know the ins and outs of the rules on this in the current situation.
4. I've not even seen a training video from them, so no idea here either. Probably below 50%, but they're a possibility I guess, depending on how solid their elements are and how many pairs sit out the GP. That's if they even qualify to compete on the GP series; I think he'd probably qualify via the split partnership rule (like J/R and K/F did)? I'm sure someone who knows the ins and outs of GP qualifying will be able to clarify here. EDIT: Thanks to @AlexBreeze for the clarification on the rule, this team won't be able to compete on the GP series.
5. Definitely above 50%: S/B making GPF is very likely, I'd probably even predict them as a podium possibility there. I hope their Georgian teammates Metelkina/Parkman can have a shot at GPF too!
6. I don't follow the men very closely, but I guess he has a decent chance of a repeat. I think several of the younger up-and-coming skaters will put up a hell of a challenge though.
7. Unlikely, and below 50%, in my opinion. But I'm no expert and don't want to derail the thread with political speculation!

 

[AlexBreeze]

1. Ilya Malinin making the GPF

Above 50%.

2. Kurakova or Gubanova making GPF

There're not lists yet, so it's hard to say. Nastya has a chance. As for Katya, I think it's very unlikely.

3. Frolova representing another country in the second half of the season

There're rumours that she has retired after serious stress fracture.

4. New Philippine pair making GPF

They won't be invited to the series at all.

I think he'd probably qualify via the split partnership rule (like J/R and K/F did)? I'm sure someone who knows the ins and outs of GP qualifying will be able to clarify here.

This rule applies to skaters who have finished in the top 12 at one of the last two Worlds or in the top 6 within the past 10 years.

5. Safina/Berulava making GPF

The likelihood of it is very high, but it's hard to say right now which pairs will even participate in the series.

6. Uno repeating gold at the worlds

It's too early, so about 50%.

 

[ladyjane]

Well, my careful answers. I would like everyone to know that I don't care whether the probability is under or above 50 because I haveso many favourites who aren't mentioned here.

1. I think if Ilia continues to improve 75%.
2. Both, but Kurakova more so. She must get better at her SP's though.
3. I don't know who this is. Russian probably but that wasn't the answer you asked for. Sorry.
4. Below 50%. I know the Phillipines have got an excellent male partner but even if he had medals at worlds, it would be difficult.
5. Enormously above 50%. They were already 4th in the World this year.
6. I wish. I like Uno. But then there are others I like and love too.
7. No. Below 50%. It is a pity because the JWC is an important competition and juniors aren't political. And the Russian Juniors are good. But...there will be Ukranian Juniors!
8. 75%.

 

[lariko]

Oh! How could I forget this one.

8. Grassl making GPF

 

[lariko]

I was wondering if they would relax the rules for pairs for GP because there is not many left

 

[anonymoose_au]

Hi guys, in your opinion, what are the probability (above or below 50%) of the following things to happen in 2022-2023 Season?

1. Ilya Malinin making the GPF
2. Kurakova or Gubanova making GPF
3. Frolova representing another country in the second half of the season
4. New Philippine pair making GPF
5. Safina/Berulava making GPF
6. Uno repeating gold at the worlds
7. Russian juniors allowed to compete in JWC
8. Grassl makes GPF

1. 100%
2. 75%
3. 5%
4. ?? (Not enough knowledge to guess)
5. 90%
6. 40%
7. Minus infinity %
8. 60%

 

[el henry]

Hi guys, in your opinion, what are the probability (above or below 50%) of the following things to happen in 2022-2023 Season?

1. Ilya Malinin making the GPF
2. Kurakova or Gubanova making GPF
3. Frolova representing another country in the second half of the season
4. New Philippine pair making GPF
5. Safina/Berulava making GPF
6. Uno repeating gold at the worlds
7. Russian juniors allowed to compete in JWC
8. Grassl makes GPF

1. 75%
Analysis:
Nathan recently confirmed he is definitely taking a break. Yuzu probably. Vincent probably. Jason probably retiring.

Still ahead of him at Worlds, Shoma, Yuma, Jun, Daniel, Kazuki, Morisi, Adam. Even Camden Let's say, three of those he can pass with a good SP. Then qualification depends on GP assignments. A 4A does not qualification make

2. I don't know, but my heart is with Kurakova. (Jason wrote on Ivan Righini's IG: Please give Katushka a hug for me. Awwwww)

3. If this is a Russian lady, I hope she does.

4. Doubtful. Not in first year on Senior Circuit.

5. Yes. 100%

6. I think better than 50%. If he doesn't, Yuma will.

7. No, nada, niente, not happening.

8. Better than Ilia's chances. So, 80%?

 

[lariko]

Damn, it’s so annoying that we finally have a competition in Calgary, but no Russian juniors. I was so much looking forward to it, since basically the day they announced Calgary selection. So worried about it because of pandemic, and there you go. I don’t know. I mean, if Brown is retiring, well, that’s something good out of this coming year, but overall it just sounds like it’s not much to look forward to.

 

[figureskatingandrainbows]

Hi guys, in your opinion, what are the probability (above or below 50%) of the following things to happen in 2022-2023 Season?

1. Ilya Malinin making the GPF
2. Kurakova or Gubanova making GPF
3. Frolova representing another country in the second half of the season
4. New Philippine pair making GPF
5. Safina/Berulava making GPF
6. Uno repeating gold at the worlds
7. Russian juniors allowed to compete in JWC
8. Grassl makes GPF

1. Pretty likely unless he hits a growth spurt or gets injured. With Nathan (basically) confirmed out I'd say 75%
2. Depends on assignments. Gubanova has a better shot than Kurakova. It will come down to how the Korean/Japanese skaters do and where she gets assigned but she'll likely be alternate at minimum.
3. I don't know, I doubt RusFed will want to release skaters or another fed will want to take them
4. ?
5. Most likely, especially considering they were 4th at Worlds
6. Absolutely could happen. I see him at least in contention for the title, but whether or not he actually will is a total question mark because men are gonna men
7. Highly highly doubt it
8. If he continues skating the way he has been he will make it

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Hi guys, in your opinion, what are the probability (above or below 50%) of the following things to happen in 2022-2023 Season?

1. Ilya Malinin making the GPF
2. Kurakova or Gubanova making GPF
3. Frolova representing another country in the second half of the season
4. New Philippine pair making GPF
5. Safina/Berulava making GPF
6. Uno repeating gold at the worlds
7. Russian juniors allowed to compete in JWC
8. Grassl makes GPF

1. Extremely above 50% (95%)
2. Moderately below 50% (30%)
3. Not sure (if I had to guess, 0%)
4. Extremely below 50% (5%)
5. Way above 50% (80%)
6. Moderately below 50% (25%)
7. Not sure (if I had to guess, 0%... the war isn't just some "fad")
8. Somewhat above 50% (60%)

 

[Lipinski boy]

I can’t guess for most of these, but I can say with certainty: 1) 90% and 7) 10%