2020-21 (and -22) Ladies' skating predictions/rankings

[Skatesocs]

Instead of co-opting threads, I think we can just make a super-thread for the ladies who'll be competing in 2020-21 season. How do you think their season will go?

Since it's unclear what kind of a season we're going to have, I think for now we'll just give it a fantasy treatment, and base it off what we've seen last season, the coaching changes we've had, and also what elements they're said to be training. And just in case some feel this season is simply not going to have enough meat, hit me with your predictions for the Olympic season - assuming it happens. So just to stall it, yes, we all know this season and the next might not take place at all, it's for the case that we might see the GP and all the major competitions will still take place.

One more interesting thing would be to predict what kind of effect the pandemic will have on them as skaters - suppose the GP does take place, a lot of them still had truncated training schedules. How did that effect them? If this season doesn't take place but the next one does, what will happen to the field?

 

[Skatesocs]

2020-21 Power Rankings!

1. Rika Kihira: I predict that Kihira will finally get that 4S, and rocket to the top of the world podium. She already fell on a rotated 4S last season in the GPF - and she of course has top notch overall skating. 3A in the short + a 4S in the LP with two 3As should be enough.

2. Alena Kostornaia: I think it was said she left Eteri because she wasn't getting back her 3A, and so she went for Rozanov at Plushy's. I predict her getting it back, but I doubt she'll be getting a handle on the quad, so she'll lose out to Kihira when it matters.

3. Alexandra Trusova: Her skating depends entirely on her layout. I think Plushy will drill her with a 3A and try to make her do a consistent layout - but this is an expected placement for her, because I think she'll still be knocked on her skating compared to the other two, nor do I think she'll be going completely clean with multiple quads even if drilled into her.

4. Anna Shcherbackova: She is the biggest question mark for me. Of course she won every LP last season, and was silver at GPF and Euros (and Russian Champ), but her jumps always seem to be hanging on by a thread. 3 and 4 are interchangeable depending on the day - but I expect Shcherbackova to not hold up with her jumps, even if she beats Trusova's overall skating.

5. Young You: She has the 3A - but will be beaten by the four above her if she doesn't get a quad, which I don't think she will this season.

6. Wakaba Higuchi/ Kaori Sakamoto: Higuchi had an outstanding comeback from injury last season and attempted a 3A at 4CCs, and Sakamoto seems to get huge PCS despite putting out meh performances (and is training a quad and 3A), but unless they get a handle on that, they'll place all the way down here. I expect both to make the Japan team, though.

8. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva: I don't see her components (or even GOE, unfortunately) picking up enough to put her on the team - but she's the one with the most firepower in Russia if we consider her technique on her jumps, and the fact that she already went for quads at Nationals.

9. Bradie Tennell: She randomly started getting an artist's reputation last season. Confusing as that is, it makes her the strongest American lady - and I think she might get a 3A after her switch to Tom Z. I doubt she'll be getting it together when it matters.

10. Alina Zagitova/Evgenia Medvedeva: Huge PCS and GOE when they land things - will be beaten out of the team nonetheless.

Unranked: fresh seniors, Satoko Miyahara, Eunsoo Lim, Karen Chen, Mariah Bell... others I can't remember.

 

[readernick]

As much as I would like your predictions to be true, Alena and Rika are my two favorites, I don't think it is possible to make these predictions because of the unpredictability of the season this year and the coaching and training location changes we have seen. Rika does look strong. She got her 3A back almost immediately after returning from rink closures, but we really don't know the condition of any of the other skaters.

 

[Skatesocs]

I don't claim to know what's happening, but I think it's a fine fantasy thread. It's impossible to make predictions at any time anyway. I asked other questions in the OP too. We all know that we don't know. That's not really a discussion.

And we can consolidate any competitions that happen via a ranking like this in this thread.

 

[zounger]

1. Trusova
2. Kihira
3. Medvedeva
4. Kostornaia
5. Shcherbakova
6. Young You
7. Tenell
8. Bell

 

[ruga]

1. Trusova
2. Shcherbakova
3. Kostornaia
4. Kihira
5. You
6. Tuktamysheva
7. Tennell
8. Medvedeva
9. Bell
10. Zagitova

 

[GINO]

We still don't know if the world's strongest skaters will be able to compete on the same ice this season Anyway, this is my vision of Power Rankings:
1. Alexandra Trusova
2. Rika Kihira
3. Anna Shcherbackova
4. Alena Kostornaia
5. Bradie Tennell
6. Young You
7. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
8. Evgenia Medvedeva
9. Mariah Bell
10. Haein Lee

 

[Shayuki]

1. Shcherbakova
2. Kihira
3. Kostornaya
4. Trusova

Rest: Whatever...

Interesting how many people predict Trusova to be first. A lot of faith in Plushenko for all his lack of achievements.

 

[Ziotic]

I think the faith is in Trusova, not Plushenko.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

1. Shcherbakova
2. Kihira
3. Kostornaya
4. Trusova

Rest: Whatever...

Interesting how many people predict Trusova to be first. A lot of faith in Plushenko for all his lack of achievements.

First of all the faith is in Trusova, and her previous quad jumping. She just has to get her previous quads back. Yes, she wasn't consistent towards end of last season, but that can be trained, and sherbakova's quads were all hanging by a thread, we have to wait and see how she's handled growth.

Second of all faith is in Rozanov. We've seen his accomplishments with Kostornia, and also with Veronika.

 

[Shayuki]

First of all the faith is in Trusova, and her previous quad jumping. She just has to get her previous quads back. Yes, she wasn't consistent towards end of last season, but that can be trained, and sherbakova's quads were all hanging by a thread, we have to wait and see how she's handled growth.

Second of all faith is in Rozanov. We've seen his accomplishments with Kostornia, and also with Veronika.

Shcherbakova's the one whose quads have consistently improved as she's progressed on a constant upwards trajectory, but somehow she's the one whose quads are a question mark? For Trusova we'll assume she'll regain her past quads, and for Shcherbakova we'll assume she'll lose hers?

That seems backwards to me. Was it way back in 2017 when I said that if one Eteri skater will maintain her quads it's Anna Shcherbakova and she's not exactly shown any signs of that not being the case, even though she suffered a major setback since then with a significant injury.

 

[Fried]

Shcherbakova's the one whose quads have consistently improved as she's progressed on a constant upwards trajectory, but somehow she's the one whose quads are a question mark? For Trusova we'll assume she'll regain her past quads, and for Shcherbakova we'll assume she'll lose hers?

That seems backwards to me. Was it way back in 2017 when I said that if one Eteri skater will maintain her quads it's Anna Shcherbakova and she's not exactly shown any signs of that not being the case, even though she suffered a major setback since then with a significant injury.

One is as likely or unlikely as the other. So why discuss. Everyone claims what they want anyway. I could argue that at least we saw from Trusova that she landed her quads after the training break, from Anya not. But what can be conclusively drawn from this? Nothing.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

Shcherbakova's the one whose quads have consistently improved as she's progressed on a constant upwards trajectory, but somehow she's the one whose quads are a question mark? For Trusova we'll assume she'll regain her past quads, and for Shcherbakova we'll assume she'll lose hers?

That seems backwards to me. Was it way back in 2017 when I said that if one Eteri skater will maintain her quads it's Anna Shcherbakova and she's not exactly shown any signs of that not being the case, even though she suffered a major setback since then with a significant injury.

Trusova's quads are the best out of the current ladies performing quads. At least, last season. Trusova has grown a ton, yet is still doing 4Lz on video. Sherbakova has grown a lot too, yet there's no evidence of her current quad state. Sherbakova is very thin, so I worry that she will break when doing quads once she has grown a lot during puberty.

She may prove me wrong, and land 3 quads cleanly with Trusova landing less, but with current evidence I'm leaning to Trusova.


Ignoring the suspicious edge, Sherbakova has improved with stability over 4Lz in previous season, yet her other quad (4F) remains inconsistent and shaky.

There is the components advantage that Anna has, but if Trusova skates clean with 1 clean quad more than Sherbakova (assuming Trusova's programs have not degraded in quality with the new choreography) then Trusova will be ahead.


For me, the bigger question mark is with Kostornia,
last season she was the clear favourite going into worlds, and stood at the top step of the podium for the majority of competitions.
Yet, if her 3A is not restored she has nothing, and would not even make it to the big competitions next season and be potentially Usurped by younger quad jumpers going into 2022.

I'm pretty certain that Kostornia will not have a quad next season considering her massive break, so the best we can really hope for is the 3A to be restored to full strength.



I think we should wait and see for senior test skates, as I feel these will reveal a lot about the trajectory each of the skaters will start on in the season.

 

[Skatesocs]

I think we should wait and see for senior test skates, as I feel these will reveal a lot about the trajectory each of the skaters will start on in the season.

We should all toss in an update after those happen

 

[lariko]

I think the faith is in Trusova, not Plushenko.

This or both. Honestly, I believe in that partnership, and I want to see Trusova shine more than any other lady—and I love them all too.

 

[Fried]

This or both. Honestly, I believe in that partnership, and I want to see Trusova shine more than any other lady—and I love them all too.

You take the words out of my mouth. That's exactly how I think too.

 

[sparklestan]

My power rankings as of right now:

1. Alexandra Trusova
2. Anna Shcherbakova
3. Rika Kihira
4. Alena Kostornaia
5. Young You
6. Evgenia Medvedeva
7. Wakaba Higuchi
8. Bradie Tennell
9. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
10. Mariah Bell
—————
11. Alina Zagitova
12. Ksenia Sinitsyna
13. Haein Lee

 

[kolyadafan2002]

We should all toss in an update after those happen

yes - I think this will be our first solid evidence of the girls competitive ability, current repertoire , skating skills and program layout.

 

[Skatesocs]

 

[yulikali]

Wait, let me try!

1. Rika Kihira
- From what she has shown, the triple axel is back along with some new combos and they all seem to be pretty solid. She's also gotten interesting new programs and is on an upwards trajectory. I don't really expect a quad from her this season, but if she keeps her quality from last season (or even likely improves it!) she will be a sure bet for every podium.

2. Alexandra Trusova
- Puberty and coaching change are playing a number on her, but Sasha has already presented us with some pretty nice quads in practice. I don't expect her to be consistent, but as she switched from Eteri exactly because she wanted to jump more quads, I guess she may go for them, fall on a couple, but also land some as she has shown she's capable, and then the pure base value of her program will prop her up. I'm assuming her skating skills are going to stay about the same, (though praying -please, Pluschenko!)

3. Anna Scherbakova
- Sadly I think there are going to be problems here (with all this coaching drama and we have no idea what Eteri is up to too). Anna is reaching the prime age of an Eteri girl and after that there are two options, either puberty is going to hit her and she'll struggle, or she has this naturally thin shape - but in this case she's extremely likely to be injury-prone. She may get the quad flip but I don't see any other quads or a triple axel from her this season. On a positive note, she really is quite the performer, that will help her a lot!

4. Elisaveta Tuktamysheva
- Ok this might be wishful thinking, but. She's got the jump ammo, probably more so than anyone but Trusova, and her jumps are extremely high-quality. If she can be consistent with these quads (and the 3A), she will be the next Russian powerhouse and I predict the fed will prop her up. Idk about PCS, I'm excited to see that "change" and new direction she has been advertising, but keeping my expectations rather low for now. V

5. Alyona Kostornaya
- She really got the worst of that quarantine time. With the coaching change it's really likely she had the least ice time before the start of the season, and there were rumours that the triple axel wasn't back yet. That seems likely to me, unfortunately, but I trust Alyona to have all her other triples back. Now, my prediction is she will struggle or be 3A-less in the beginning of the season; she may well catch up in the second half of the season, however. Unless the others improve a whole lot in the meantime. But that's figure skating, who knows! For next season Alyona is definitely on my contender list, this mess now should be behind her back.

6. Young You
- She's shown quads, she has the triple axel, she surprised us last season and I fully expect her to throw the gauntlet this season too. Her PCS may also have grown and generally judges seemed to like her.

7. Wakaba Higuchi
- Wakaba and Kaori have both shown to be working on some big elements, however Wakaba seemed to be on an upwards trajectory last season and more consistent. I don't expect a reliable triple axel from her right away, but eventually she should be able to get it, and it will be great!

8. Evgenia Medvedeva
- Zhenya needs to be squeaky clean to be able to compete with the ultra-si. She seemed to be regaining her consistency last season, and I trust her to pull it together when it really matters. PCS will keep her up, but really, any underrotation or flurz is going to be a landmine. I'm putting her here just in case she isn't perfect every time she competes.

9. Kaori Sakamoto
- She's been training big elements and here PCS are superb... but if she can't be consistent with the triples, what's even the point. Hoping for a redemption however!

10. Bradie Tennel
- Considering that coaching change: She may or may not go for a triple axel, however I don't see her landing it perfectly, and that will also take training time that she needs for working on other aspects of her skating too. It's however really admirable that she's trying to catch up, and I believe she may eventually catch up! - it will just take more time, probably more than a season.


So. I haven't included the junior newcomers here as I honestly have no idea how they will fare in the senior field; and this is really a messy list where I may very likely be forgetting someone, and the ranking is really vague - honestly, don't take this seriously, it's just having a little fun! All of the ladies are great and however comes out on top, it will be interesting.