Upset Choices for US/Canadian Nationals

[Seven Sisters]

As we head into US and Canadian Nationals, i was thinking about how the relatively unknown Mark Kondratyuk seemed to come out of nowhere to medal at Russian Nationals recently, and wondered, who could do that in the US and/or Canada? This could be a fun addition to our prediction games (and a welcome diversion, which we all need now.)

FWIW my candidate would be Green/Parsons, in dance at US Nationals. Other guesses? It’s a weird year, so let’s have at it!

 

[TontoK]

I think it's really possible that we will see someone below the radar suddenly shine at US Nationals.

We really haven't seen that much at all of many of the regular favorites, and if we did, it was early in the season. A lot can happen since skaters have had months of training uninterrupted by competitions.

My picks for a surprise medal in the US Men's competition: Alexei Krasnozhon and Andrew Torgashev.

Alexei showed some good jump difficulty at Skate America and has had a season to clean up other aspects of his skating.

Andrew has had all the ingredients for a couple of seasons, but just needs to put them together and deliver. It's time, Andrew.

 

[labgoat]

Audrey Shin for ladies bronze medal

 

[kirauza343]

Audrey Shin is my pick for a surprise ladies’ medal! Probably bronze but I’d love if she can upset for silver or gold. Also Alysa, despite being reigning champ she’s a bit of an underdog here but even without her triple axel her tech content is still high relatively speaking and the field isn’t exactly the most consistent.

 

[Ross74]

Hawayek/Baker for the gold!

 

[moonvine]

Hawayek/Baker for the gold!

100%!!!!!!!!

 

[moonvine]

Gracie for the pewter. Will also go with Alexei and Andrew. Hawayek/Baker for gold. I pick with my heart as always.

 

[Colonel Green]

An upset on Kondratiuk's level is pretty hard to predict; arguably he's the most unusual medalist at a major championship in a very long time, certainly that I can recall in recent years.

As far as Canadian nationals (or Challenge, since that'll be happening (technically already has happened) and we don't know if nationals actually will happen), the bronze medal in pairs is wide open and plausibly could go to any of several teams; the entire ladies field is a crapshoot and impossible to make any reliable predictions for from gold on down.

 

[Ic3Rabbit]

Canadian Mens: Phan or Orzel.

 

[4everchan]

Dance is Canada is pretty much set... Pairs top two as well... Men is open and Women is like someone said before me, a total crapshoot

So I don't think there will be some major news coming from Canada even in Pairs or Dance, if there were some kind of upset, it wouldn't be so much of an upset, if you know what I mean.

 

[4everchan]

Canadian Mens: Phan or Orzel.

totally would love for my sons to make it to the podium, but it wouldn't be a total surprise as both have been developing well for a few years and are top 4-6 kind of skaters.... BUT yeah let's have them both on the podium and now that would be a good surprise

ETA : i think if Nic Nadeau came back with a medal, that would be the biggest surprise

 

[kolyadafan2002]

totally would love for my sons to make it to the podium, but it wouldn't be a total surprise as both have been developing well for a few years and are top 4-6 kind of skaters.... BUT yeah let's have them both on the podium and now that would be a good surprise

ETA : i think if Nic Nadeau came back with a medal, that would be the biggest surprise

For me, I wish Canada had a podium for at least 6 skaters as I also love Keegan nam and Roman, but also the skaters you and Ic3rabbit mentioned

 

[el henry]

Why is Andrew T. a surprise?

Was he not fifth last year? Was he not in third after the SP? My boy

Now my dream podium of Jason, Andrew and Alex K, that would be a surprise

 

[4everchan]

Now my dream podium of Jason, Andrew and Alex K, that would be a surprise

yeah... nathan and vincent would have to w/d to make that even a remote chance

 

[TontoK]

Why is Andrew T. a surprise?

Was he not fifth last year? Was he not in third after the SP? My boy

Now my dream podium of Jason, Andrew and Alex K, that would be a surprise

Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE to see Andrew on the podium.

But I think the conventional wisdom is that the top three places will be Nathan, and then Vincent and Jason in either order.

If you discount the pewter, I think Andrew (or Alex) snagging a medal would surprise a lot of people, because that would mean they've dislodged one of the favorites.

 

[Lamente Ariane]

totally would love for my sons to make it to the podium, but it wouldn't be a total surprise as both have been developing well for a few years and are top 4-6 kind of skaters.... BUT yeah let's have them both on the podium and now that would be a good surprise

ETA : i think if Nic Nadeau came back with a medal, that would be the biggest surprise

If Nic suddenly skated two clean programs, let alone got a medal I think I’d cry from happiness, haha.

 

[el henry]

yeah... nathan and vincent would have to w/d to make that even a remote chance

I know, but I did say "dream podium," not the one I was laying money on.

Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE to see Andrew on the podium.

But I think the conventional wisdom is that the top three places will be Nathan, and then Vincent and Jason in either order.

If you discount the pewter, I think Andrew (or Alex) snagging a medal would surprise a lot of people, because that would mean they've dislodged one of the favorites.

Actually, my friend, I was thinking of the pewter, which is a medal as far as USFS is concerned (and one of my previous favs, Grant Hochstein, was the "Pewter King"). I agree that Andrew snagging a bronze is unlikely.

But like Jason, I just want to see him skate Of course my two fav American skaters would be essentially making debuts at Nats

 

[ladyjane]

It would be great if Andrew T could skate two clean programmes! I don't expect him to, but if he does, he's totally up for a medal - if 'only' the pewter one.

 

[Apple1078]

It would be great if Andrew T could skate two clean programmes! I don't expect him to, but if he does, he's totally up for a medal - if 'only' the pewter one.

I hope we'll see two clean programs from Andrew... I'm just slightly concerned that Raf usually needs 2 years when working with a new skater because his technique is so different. So I don't know if they are in the process of retooling Andrew's technique which might affect consistency of the jumps etc.

 

[MGstyle]

Actually Mark Kondratyuk medalling was not that shocking in this particluar competition - note that Dima and Artur couldn't participate, and Samarin was still hampered by injuries, and the up and coming Mozaryov and Gumennik still suffer the consistency issues, at this point anything could have happened.
That said, my definitely endorses the idea of Hawayek & JLB winning the gold and Andrew T. getting on the podium