2022 Olympic Team Event discussion and predictions

[HeadBanger]

Yes, but as I said, do they HAVE anyone to fill that spot? Israel didn't qualify in Ladies, but they still had someone to put in that spot for the Team Event, same with South Korea and Pairs. But that pair is no longer competing. Is there a pair in South Korea to put in that spot for the Team Event? Because I haven't seen one.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Can't say it much concerns me. Big picture, even if they're there, they're mere filler anyway

 

[ice coverage]

Does South Korea have a pair, though? I don't think they do, at least I don't remember seeing one in a long time. I remember looking over the rules for the Team Event, and I think if I remember correctly, they're going to need a pair to compete in the Team Event, even if it's just for that event because they didn't qualify for the Pairs event.

South Korea would not need a pair for the OWG team event -- as long as it had skaters in the other three disciplines.

The rule is: " D.3.2 Each Team must participate in at least three (3) disciplines (Women Single Skating/Men Single Skating/Pair Skating/Ice Dance) of the Team Event. "

https://isu.org/docman-documents-links-2/2022-beijing/qualification-systems-3/22994-figure-skating-v1-0/file

Obviously, no pair would mean zero points for the pair portion of the team event.
But South Korea would not need a pair in order to compete.

 

[Colonel Green]

If they do a merged team with North Korea like they did in hockey last time, they could snag Ryom/Kim for the team event

 

[ice coverage]

If they do a merged team with North Korea like they did in hockey last time, they could snag Ryom/Kim for the team event

My two cents: This Ryom/Kim scenario seems unlikely for 2022, regardless of the special arrangements in 2018.

If South Korea had not been the site of 2018 OWG, would the agreements for a unified delegation at Opening Ceremony and for a unified women's hockey team even have been pursued? My opinion is No.

(As a big fan of Ryom/Kim, I would be glad to be proven wrong for 2022 -- but I just do not see it happening.)

 

[HeadBanger]

Hahaha. I am going to make you all laugh. I want the Dutch in the Team event. They've got a pair, a lady, a man and even two dance teams. I know, they're low in scoring but still. Sorry, more wish than reality to be honest, but it's just so funny when everyone is discussing the composition of a team while there are so many countries without even having one.

That's kinda the problem with the team event, it seems to be largely devised as an excuse to get more figure skating on tv and guarantee the big feds an extra medal... but fortunately for 2022, it looks like there will actually be a good fight for the third medal with Canada much weaker and China starting to develop outside their traditional focuses.

Does provide some incentive for the nations with one or two strong disciplines, to invest in the others... but it's rough on everyone else. The big feds are fussing about having to sit top skaters, meanwhile the majority of countries are barely able to scrape a team together

 

[Blades of Passion]

With the surge of Knierim/Frazier, things have changed. USA now has an actual chance for Gold. Possible result here between USA and Russia:

Ladies: (this assumes Japan sends someone besides Rika to the LP)
SP: Russia - 1, USA - 3
LP: Russia - 1, USA - 2

Men: (Nathan Chen in both segments; Boyang Jin in both segments beating the Russian guy)
SP: USA - 1, Russia - 4
LP: USA - 1, Russia - 4

Pairs: (there's a real chance of Knierim/Frazier doing a perfect LP while the Russian team makes a mistake; in the SP the Russians are more likely to go clean and will be favored)
SP: Russia - 2, USA - 3
LP: USA - 2, Russia - 3

Dance: (we know with the way politics go, Russia is beating USA here)
SP: Russia - 2, USA - 3
LP: Russia - 1, USA - 2

END RESULT:

USA - 71 points
RUSSIA - 70 points

You can bet Russia will be doing everything possible to make the result come out the way they want, but there's an actual chance they lose now.

 

[Colonel Green]

Men: (Nathan Chen in both segments; Boyang Jin in both segments beating the Russian guy)
SP: USA - 1, Russia - 4
LP: USA - 1, Russia - 4

Nathan's not going to do both segments, but Vincent is also quite capable of winning the free skate, even if he'd be less likely to beat whoever Japan sends than Nathan would.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Nathan's not going to do both segments

Then he's drastically damaging the chance of a Gold medal, not only for himself but selfishly for his entire team and country.

 

[Colonel Green]

Then he's drastically damaging the chance of a Gold medal, not only for himself but selfishly for his entire team and country.

Chen has been working toward winning the Olympic men's title his entire career. None of the major men's contenders are going to tire themselves doing both programs right before the senior men's event (Hanyu may very well not appear in the team event at all), save perhaps Jin (and in his case arguably his team event chances are stronger than his individual chances anyway).

 

[Blades of Passion]

Every athlete in other sports is expected to do it, and figure skaters have already done it under far more difficult conditions. World Championships and GPF used to require competitors to do multiple LP's in a shorter amount of timeframe. If people can't do 2 SP's and 2LP's over the course of 9 days (which they also already sometimes do during the Grand Prix season, and have to travel extra on top of it), then there is either something wrong with their training or they are injured. Nobody should be getting "tired out" by doing one extra LP with plenty of rest time inbetween. They are already constantly training full programs every day, and getting to compete a LP before the individual event should be viewed as a helpful experience anyway.

If Nathan Chen does not compete, and Team USA loses a Gold medal that would have otherwise been winnable, then he will be deservedly branded as a selfish coward. Would hate to see how THAT affects his condition going into the individual event.

 

[rollerblade]

You really have a knack of picking adjectives to use.

I don't think Sui/Han are going to skate in the Team Event, so I don't know who you picked to win the Pairs segment, especially the FS.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I don't think Sui/Han are going to skate in the Team Event, so I don't know who you picked to win the Pairs segment, especially the FS.

Yeah they may not, but it doesn't matter if China is 1st or 3rd for that segment in the end. All that matters is the differential between Russia and USA. If another Chinese team competes the LP, that's actually a potential benefit for USA, because a clean Knierim/Frazier could beat a clean Cheng/Yang, who in turn could beat a Russian team that makes a big mistake.

 

[Colonel Green]

Every athlete in other sports is expected to do it, and figure skaters have already done it under far more difficult conditions.

Every sport has different expectations and different training requirements; short and long track speed skaters, for instance, are accustomed to doing multiple events in short succession. In gymnastics the team event is the qualifier for the others and is the most prestigious (arguably). In figure skating the individual events are more storied than the team event due to being around longer.

If people can't do 2 SP's and 2LP's over the course of 9 days (which they also already sometimes do during the Grand Prix season, and have to travel extra on top of it), then there is either something wrong with their training or they are injured. Nobody should be getting "tired out" by doing one extra LP with plenty of rest time inbetween. They are already constantly training full programs every day, and getting to compete a LP before the individual event should be viewed as a helpful experience anyway.

There is one day between the team event men's free skate and the individual men's short program, based on the current schedule.

What you're describing is not at all how skaters have tended to describe competition. There's a whole physical and mental process in building yourself up to skate a competitive program and then cycling to the next. It's true that skaters sometimes do compete on succeeding weekends, but that's far from ideal and most avoid that if they can. Nathan certainly likes to space out his events.

Duhamel and Radford remarked that people told them they were crazy for doing both parts of team event in 2018 when the pairs event came right after.

If Nathan Chen does not compete, and Team USA loses a Gold medal that would have otherwise been winnable, then he will be deservedly branded as a selfish coward. Would hate to see how THAT affects his condition going into the individual event.

Branded by who? Skaters are generally understood to focus on their individual event prospects if they're heavy contenders (if you're not, then the team event is your best chance at a medal and it's understandable to prioritize that), I haven't seen any suggestion that people would blame Nathan, let alone call him a "coward" over it.

I don't think Sui/Han are going to skate in the Team Event, so I don't know who you picked to win the Pairs segment, especially the FS.

China seems to be building up for a real push in the team event, so I kind of do expect Sui/Han to do the short program, though obviously that could change at any moment given how injury-prone they unfortunately tend to be. China will definitely prioritize their chances in the pairs event, ultimately.

 

[Blades of Passion]

In gymnastics the team event is the qualifier for the others and is the most prestigious (arguably).

Incorrect, in gymnastics there is an entire qualifying round where they need to do a full competition, and THEN a separate Team event, and THEN a separate All-around event, and THEN separate event finals. All-around final is by far the most prestigious and comes after far more amount of competition than what is currently found in ice skating.

There is one day between the team event men's free skate and the individual men's short program, based on the current schedule.

It's never been like that in the past, would be very dumb if that schedule remains, but regardless it still wouldn't be more difficult than what hundreds of other Olympic athletes are doing.

Duhamel and Radford remarked that people told them they were crazy for doing both parts of team event in 2018 when the pairs event came right after.

...And? They proved everybody wrong. Skated pretty much the best they could at that point in their careers and could have been double-Gold medalists if the judging wanted to go that way (they definitely should have been at least Silver over Sui/Han).

Branded by who?

By the media. They will be informed of how the Team event operates and what is at stake; Gold medals in popular events are things that get big coverage.

 

[Colonel Green]

It's never been like that in the past

They rejiggered the schedule this time around. The order is team event, men, dance, ladies, pairs (probably because China wanted pairs last).

...And?

And it shows that it's not generally what people want to do. For D/R the team event gold was their best shot at that. Nathan's situation is different; both he and Yuzuru will prioritize the individual event, just as they did in prior Olympics without issue.

By the media. They will be informed of how the Team event operates and what is at stake; Gold medals in popular events are things that get big coverage.

Was Nathan branded a coward for not doing the free skate of the team event in Pyeongchang? No, and that could easily have cost the US a medal if a few things had gone differently vis a vis how certain American and Italian athletes performed. NBC, which controls and generates most of the coverage, isn't going to mount a negative PR campaign against the US' flagship athlete.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Was Nathan branded a coward for not doing the free skate of the team event in Pyeongchang?

He bombed the SP (which he received heavy criticism for, and made people want to see someone else in the LP) and there was no Gold medal at stake whatsoever. Very different scenario.

NBC, and many other large news outlets, will indeed be calling Nathan out if he does not compete in the Team event when a Gold is on the line. Perhaps not by Tara/Johnny live, but definitely in written articles. Not to mention social media in general.

 

[dancelion21]

I highly doubt that the US will be able to outscore the Russians in pairs, and will probably struggle to even outscore the Canadians. It's far more likely to me that the Russians are 1/2 in pairs depending on if Sui/Han perform for China while the US is fourth, falling behind the Canadians (if they send M-T/M) in both segments. They would lose six points to Russia in pairs unless Russia has a catastrophe.

On the other hand, with S/K's injury and since S/B weren't invited to the last Olympics, it's quite possible that the US could gain points in ice dance. France is unlikely to make the free program without J/C and since P/C didn't do the team event last time, I can't see them doing it this time. I think it will be Russia, US, Canada, Japan, and China which make the free. It's possible that Russia can't send either of their two top teams (as previously mentioned). Then, they'd be battling with China over spots 3/4 while the US would take first and Canada takes second. That would almost erase the US' disadvantage from Pairs, gaining 4-6 points across both short and free. However, this is unlikely. A more likely scenario would be S/K going to the Olympics, but with their time off and their injuries, they aren't as strong as they were last season and lose momentum, thus leading to a tighter race between C/B and H/D (who should split the event) in the two events for 1/2. So it probably ends up being a draw across the two programs (H/D likely can't beat S/K in the RD, but C/B beat S/K twice in the free dance last season).

With the US likely third in both ladies segments while Russia takes first, that's four points that need to be made up. If Rika skates both segments for Japan, there's a possibility that she can take first in one of the segments if the selected Russian lady makes small mistakes, but it feels unlikely that Rika does both, since she would probably want to save energy for the individual segment.

Thus, to win, the US would need to make up ten points in men's. This is the hardest to predict, since Vincent would likely struggle to beat the chosen Japanese man (likely Shoma), but should be okay to finish above Boyang, the chosen Canadian man, and the chosen Russian man (likely Misha). Misha would most likely place fourth in the free segment while the short segment is harder to predict. Even though countries like Italy, France, and South Korea aren't likely to make the free skate, they can still make an impact on the points gained from the short program. Further, men are so inconsistent that beyond 1-2 as US/Japan, it's kind of a free-for-all from 3-8 (China, South Korea, Canada, Russia, France, Italy). So it's a real ? as to how much ground Russia will lose. Thus, in men's, the US can make up anywhere from four to ten points.

So, to win overall, the US will likely need to hope the Russian man has a catastrophe (unfortunately possible) and/or that K/F make up enough ground from now to the Olympics that they could beat the Canadian pair and/or it remains close between the top US teams and S/K while the US lady also performs as expected.

TLDR: Russia's still the favorite, but the US has an outside chance.

 

[kirauza343]

I feel like it’s really going to come down to Mens, Pairs, and the placements of several skaters that can play spoiler.

Mens is Russia’s weak spot but it’s also the most unpredictable field in general. Barring disaster the US should place several places higher in the short, but the free depends a lot on who skates. I really wouldn’t blame Nathan for not wanting to skate both it and the short, and we do have other options that can score very well (heck Jason had the 4th highest free skate score last season). Who skates clean will determine this, and whether or not skaters from Japan or China can come in between the US and Russia skaters (or who knows, maybe Misha skates clean and wins the free!

Pairs will depend a lot on how well K/F are able to score internationally. It’s hard to speculate where they’ll end up in the bunch, but China will also be an important factor in this group. I don’t see a US pairs team beating them but the Chinese pair/pairs beating the Russian pair/pairs in even one program would help the US.

The US loses to the Russians in ladies barring a major meltdown, but the Japanese skaters (and potentially South Korean in the short) will get a say in whether the difference is one spot or two. Rika skating the short (which would be the smartest choice IMO for Japan...she has the highest ceiling and it gives her a performance to get used to skating at the Olympics without completely tiring her out for the individual event) mean Japan could potentially win the short here, which helps lessen the gap for the US. In the free (assuming no Rika) if the US can beat the Japanese skater (challenging, but not impossible) it would keep the gap small in ladies.

Dance is going to seriously depend on who Russia gets to send and if their best team has the momentum going in. It’ll likely be a Russia/US 1-2 in either order (I really don’t see P/C competing in the team event).

It’s going to be a very interesting event to watch! So much will depend on the performances of the day and it could really be a close competition

 

[Blades of Passion]

I highly doubt that the US will be able to outscore the Russians in pairs, and will probably struggle to even outscore the Canadians.

The results say otherwise. Knierim/Frazier, in their first season together, have skated cleaner than any of the Russian teams at Nationals, and have blown past any performance Moore-Towers/Marinaro have ever shown.

I really wouldn’t blame Nathan for not wanting to skate both it and the short, and we do have other options that can score very well.

There are not others who can beat Shoma, Boyang, and Kolyada/Aliev in top form. Jason has no chance and Vincent Zhou has declined from the level he previously peaked at, which itself would already not be enough to beat Shoma and Boyang.

Nathan needs to skate the LP or there is no Gold for USA, unless the rest of the world does poorly in the Men's LP and/or the Russian guy completely bombs the SP.

 

[ladyjane]

The last times in both cases, Italy showed up (unexpectedly for most viewers) to be able to make a good fight for the bronze even though they just missed it in the end. At the last Olympics this success was due to a good lady (Carolina), 2 good pair teams (M/H and dM/G), a good ID team (C/L) and an at that moment upcoming young man (Matteo). They didn't win any of the individual programmes, but scraped together enough points to really be a threat for Bronze. I wonder why no one is thinking about them for the Team event. They've got some pretty good young men now (Daniel is doing very well in the few competitions that there were, and Matteo is also climbing up again), one of those pairs teams is still at it and showed off some beautiful programmes at their Gran Premio and Nationals, Italy has another good ID team which has improved a lot since the OG, and they are only weak with their ladies. Of course everybody will still have to skate, but I for one have hopes that Italy will make it to the medals this time round. I realise of course that overtaking the US or Russia may be very difficult but even with better ID teams and pairs (Japan specifically, as China has two very good pair teams already) I still think the competition could be close. And, to be fair, Canada lost a bit of its clout since 2018 but still could put some good ID teams and Pairs into the mix.