The Politics of Figure Skating

Doggygirl said:

I think we ARE asking the same set of questions. I seems that your primary question goes more to the "Why" (which is a very legitimate question, if true) and my question is leaning towards the "How" based on the current system.

I suspect we will both enjoy the season more if anyone can offer even a speculative (but reasonable, logical) answer to either or both of these questions.

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Well put. So here I go with my speculative but illogical answers, LOL.

1. Piel really asks two questions.

(a) Is Irina being gifted with undeserved high score in prelude to handing her the Olympic gold medal? and

(b) If so, why would the ISU and its member federations want to do such a thing?

IMHO the answer to the first question is no, and so the second is moot.

Irina has skated great at every outing this year, while all Michelle and Sasha have to show for their season so far is a a sore butt and a bum hip. Shizuka has been up and down. No one else has brought their A game yet.

I cannot think of any way in which it would profit the ISU to crown Irina especially rather than someone else, come February, if another skater mounts a challenge.

2. Doggygirl asks, show me the numbers.

I think the numbers go something like this. Suppose one judge acting alone wants Alissa Czisny to win Skate America instead of Elena Sokolova. So he raises Alissa's PCSs by, say, 0.50 points across the board, and lowers Sokolova's by a similar amount. It would certainly not attract attention to give a 6.75 instead of a 6.25. Depending somewhat on the random draw and trimming procedures, this translates into a net swing of about 1.7 points.

1.0 points x 5 components x 2.4 factor for SP and LP together / 7 (averaged over 7 judges) = 1.71.

So this one judge could change the result of a contest provided it was closer than 1.7 points.

In contrast, under ordinal judging one judge acting alone could change the outcome only in the case of a five / four split.

So which is more rare, a five/four split in the olden days, or a close contest of 1.7 points or less under CoP?

Two judges acting in concert could change the winner under ordinal judging in the case of a six / three split.

Under the NJS, they could do the same if the competitors finished within 3.4 points or so of each other.

So under both systems, in the case of a clear-cut winner, it is hard to cheat without getting caught.

But in a close contest it is easy in both systems.

Mathman

Mathman said:

Well put. So here I go with my speculative but illogical answers, LOL.

1. Piel really asks two questions.

(a) Is Irina being gifted with undeserved high score in prelude to handing her the Olympic gold medal? and

(b) If so, why would the ISU and its member federations want to do such a thing?

IMHO the answer to the first question is no, and so the second is moot.

Irina has skated great at every outing this year, while all Michelle and Sasha have to show for their season so far is a a sore butt and a bum hip. Shizuka has been up and down. No one else has brought their A game yet.

I cannot think of any way in which it would profit the ISU to crown Irina especially rather than someone else, come February, if another skater mounts a challenge.

2. Doggygirl asks, show me the numbers.

I think the numbers go something like this. Suppose one judge acting alone wants Alissa Czisny to win Skate America instead of Elena Sokolova. So he raises Alissa's PCSs by, say, 0.50 points across the board, and lowers Sokolova's by a similar amount. It would certainly not attract attention to give a 6.75 instead of a 6.25. Depending somewhat on the random draw and trimming procedures, this translates into a net swing of about 1.7 points.

1.0 points x 5 components x 2.4 factor for SP and LP together / 7 (averaged over 7 judges) = 1.71.

So this one judge could change the result of a contest provided it was closer than 1.7 points.

In contrast, under ordinal judging one judge acting alone could change the outcome only in the case of a five / four split.

So which is more rare, a five/four split in the olden days, or a close contest of 1.7 points or less under CoP?

Two judges acting in concert could change the winner under ordinal judging in the case of a six / three split.

Under the NJS, they could do the same if the competitors finished within 3.4 points or so of each other.

So under both systems, in the case of a clear-cut winner, it is hard to cheat without getting caught.

But in a close contest it is easy in both systems.

Mathman

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That is an excellent "scenario" to help us all better understand the "how." Now, just to complicate things, let's say two judges from the old Eastern Bloc conspire to "help" a particular skater just exactly as you describe ablove. And then let's say that 2 judges from the old Western bloc do the same exact thing. Now that would make all the conspiring null and void, right? (assuming that both pairs of judges "cheated" by the same amount of points). But....let's say the two conspiring judges from either of the old blocs pick different numbers to cheat by. (say one pair picks .2 and the other pair picks .3) Geez - it seems to me it could start getting pretty complicated! (but I'm not arguing with the statistical anaysis you quoted basically saying that statisically cheating can be done equally easily under both systems).

And while GOE can certainly be "fudged" I think, the raw values of the technical elements really can't be, unless the technical caller is in on the fix, or is independently favoring someone. (i.e. could call a L3 instead of an L4, or could swing a close call on a jump rotation either way). *Note to skaters - make sure your jumps are fully rotated and avoid this problem!*

It just seems to me that GUARANTEEING a certain result is a little more complicated than it used to be. I think a lot more is in the control of the skaters via the TES part of the whole thing. (which I am in favor of!!)

MM, I really appreciate your help sorting this out in my head!! Will you be my shrink?

DG

Wow, leave for one day and see what blows up in front of me.

But the problem with giving Irina the gold medal in 2006 in place of the one they gave improperly to Sarah in 2002 is obvious. If Sasha is the true winner in 2006, but they give her medal to Irina, then they will have to reserve the 2010 gold medal for Sasha, robbing Mao Asada.

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There is one problem with this, and it's a big one. This would lead to a HUGE scandal and almost certainly put the nail in the coffin for figure skating.

My opinion may differ from everyone else's, but maybe removal of figure skating from the OLYs is really what needs to happen in order to truly clean it up. I don't know if the IOC would ever consider doing so because of how popular it is, but only then would the ISU/Federations truly realize there's something wrong, and bother to fix it.

Very interesting comments in this thread. Unfortunately I don't have time to read them all, but I must say the poster that suggested that it's the individual federations and not the ISU as a while that's the problem might be onto something.

Later...

Query for Computer Nerds

Would it be possible for someone to fix the Oly games by bypassing the judges, entirely, and simply hacking the computer, so that no matter what numbers are inputted by the tech specialist/judges, the computer comes up with whatever score it has been pre-programed to display?

If so, what happens if Irina's uber fans, Michelle's uber fans, Sasha' uber fans, and Shizuka's uber fans all hack the computer, and provide that each lady is to be scored on the exact same elements, getting the maximum GOE on everything and all getting perfect "10s" across the board on the PCS scores? Does this short out the computer?

attyfan said:

Would it be possible for someone to fix the Oly games by bypassing the judges, entirely, and simply hacking the computer, so that no matter what numbers are inputted by the tech specialist/judges, the computer comes up with whatever score it has been pre-programed to display?

If so, what happens if Irina's uber fans, Michelle's uber fans, Sasha' uber fans, and Shizuka's uber fans all hack the computer, and provide that each lady is to be scored on the exact same elements, getting the maximum GOE on everything and all getting perfect "10s" across the board on the PCS scores? Does this short out the computer?

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ABC / ESPN / USFSA are onto something after all with that Marshall's format. Hubby is such a techie that I'm now open for bribes on the hacking strategy. Thanks for lightening *me* up!!

Red Dog said:

My opinion may differ from everyone else's, but maybe removal of figure skating from the OLYs is really what needs to happen in order to truly clean it up. I don't know if the IOC would ever consider doing so because of how popular it is...

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Never happen, RD. What was that quote on the other thread? The Winter Olympics is ladies ice skating with a few obscure Scandinavian hobbies thrown in.

MM

There is nothing to stop a group of 4-5 judges from conspiring to fix Olympic results. All they have to do is manipulate the GOE and PCS scores of the top contenders, and do it in such a way that no one judge displays a cohesive pattern.

The secrecy protects the judges, and if the ISU figured it out after the fact, does anyone actually believe they would raise a red flag? The ISU wouldn't even investigate the collusion in the 2002 Olympics publicly admitted to by one judge!

Mathman said:

Never happen, RD. What was that quote on the other thread? The Winter Olympics is ladies ice skating with a few obscure Scandinavian hobbies thrown in.

MM

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Just curious. I know that here in the US, Ladies Figure Skating is the big hit. Is this also true in other countries? I thought, for example, that speed skating and skiing would be bigger events in Northern Europe. I can't really imagine that figure skating is the most popular event EVERYWHERE...I'm sort of confused. I hear people from other countries saying it's only the US that puts so much emphasis on the ladies' division of FS, and that other events are more popular in other countries.

Can someone outside the US shed some light on this?

Red Dog said:

Just curious. I know that here in the US, Ladies Figure Skating is the big hit. Is this also true in other countries? I thought, for example, that speed skating and skiing would be bigger events in Northern Europe. I can't really imagine that figure skating is the most popular event EVERYWHERE...I'm sort of confused. I hear people from other countries saying it's only the US that puts so much emphasis on the ladies' division of FS, and that other events are more popular in other countries.

Can someone outside the US shed some light on this?

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I know in Canada that hockey is the sport to watch (NHL)(Hockey Night in Canada)(Everybody glued to the TV screens.

But in hockey the Stanley Cup is bigger than the Olympics.

I think when people talk about figure skating being the biggest thing in the winter Olympics, they are mostly talking about money. I don't know how many billions of dollars it takes to put on the Olympic games, or how much they hope to recoup from the live gate, mechandizing, and selling television rights. But I believe that the contract with NBC, supported in turn by advertising revenues from big corporate sponsors, is a major chunk of their revenue.

Will Coco-cola and Chevrolet pay a half million dollars for a 30 second spot on the two-man tobagganing heats at 4:00 AM EST?

For figure skating, it's kind of a catch twenty-two. It wants to be a sport. Like tobogganing is a sport. But then, who cares.

On the other hand, it is also a combination performance art / girlie show, which is where the money is.

MM

I don't think most judges are pulling for a particular skater and certainly none in a collaboration. The journalists at the Olys will be looking for a big big scandal. I don't think that will happen again - even the toetapper will behave.

What I see as a problem is one of cultural bias. The slavic people will see the same things in a skater that they like. The slavic judges will also see the things that are familiarly good to them. and they will want to see a nice slavic skater win a prize. It's hman nature an quite understandable. I don't have a problem with it. It's the way things are. the ony way to prevent too much cultural bias is to have regional judging rather than national judges.

While I do not think much of Irina as a beautiful figure skater, I damn well think she is a total competitive figure skater. She has the points and should win. How much she is held up if she melts is another story. the above paragraph may apply.

BTW, Figure Skating doesn't even approach Baseball in the US except maybe in the Olys. (They recently kicked out baseball from the Olys.)

Joe

Piel said:

If the judges are sitting Irina up to win the OGM, why? Does anyone have any ideas on why the ISU, IOC, or judges in general prefer one skater above others? Why do some federations have more clout than others? You would think since the U.S. provides a lot of training facilities and the U.S. audiences (I am assuming here) buy a lot of tickets and are the ones buying the advertisers products the U.S. federation would have more powere than it does. I am NOT saying that one country 's fed. should have more power than another's..it shouldn't. I am just curious to know how a federation gains power. If the U.S. is at a disadvantage here what can it do to even the playing field?

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You are a smart Kwaniac, preparing your excuses in advance. Like a good lawyer always show up prepared.

Piel said:

Anya, I think it has been brought up many time that skaters seem to benefit from "home cooking "when their country hosts a competetion. The North Americans after SLC, U.S. after D.C. World's, and Russians after Moscow Worlds. The question, IMO is does the home ice advantage improve performance that much? Or are the judges afraid they won't make it out of the country with all of their luggage?

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How did Americans and Russians benefit from the locations of those events?

In SLC Hughes deserved to win the womens and did, Kwan was not clearly outskated by Slutskaya and ended below her(probably since the judges knew about the 1-2-4 scoring needed for the gold medal, etc...). Goebel may have deserved silver in the mens and won bronze. Ina/Zimmerman probably deserved better than 5th in the pairs, and Lang/Tschenaysaev missed the top 10(11th)in dance for the only time at Worlds/Olympics in 99-2003

In Washington Kwan deserved to win clearly and did, Cohen missed a medal because of her mistakes in short and long, and finished 3rd in the qualifying round behind Kwan and Sokolova even with a clean skate(arguably correct since Sokolova did two 3/3s and Kwan was also clean, but if there was an American slant, surely she would have been higher than Sokolova in the round).
Plushenko won the mens with straight 1st place votes, despite a shaky performance, and Goebel won the silver with straight 2nd place votes with a great performance, that clearly deserved atleast that. Pairs and dance there placings were in the 7-9 area, as expected, with near optimum performances I might add.

In Moscow Totmianina/Marinin clearly deserved to win the pairs gold, and Navka/Kostomarov would have won the dance anywhere whether it is universaly agreed on or not. Slutskaya did deserve to win the womens gold, if she was slight held up in the short, so was Cohen who also had small grating mistakes in the short that were downplayed so that would have changed nothing between them, Kwan and Kostner were arguably hurt in the short, but neither were even close to Slutskaya or Cohen in the long anyway so it would not have mattered.
Griazev skated a clean short program, and ended up several points below somebody like Lysacek with the same jumps. The only possable holding up I see in any of the events is Petrova/Tikhonov winning silver in the pairs with a error-filled free program. That is about it, and about all I see in any of these events.

Home Ice Advantage

I read somewhere that the host countries almost always get record numbers of medals at the Olympics, even if not in figure skating. I found this on an internet site as a possible explanation:

"A host country usually reaps the benefit of hosting the games. Since their athletes are native to their land the cost of transporting them and training them is usually limited.

This is why host countries usually do better at home than away."

Here is the link:

http://www.stlallsports.com/olympics/0503olympichostcountrygoldmedal.html

slutskayafan21 said:

You are a smart Kwaniac, preparing your excuses in advance. Like a good lawyer always show up prepared.

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I think there are two ways that "home cooking" works. First, a supportive audience can pump up a performer to rise to the occasion and give a superior performance. Julia Sebestyen at 2003 Europeans in Budapest is a good example.

Conversely, when a skater reaches the audience emotionally, well, the judges are part of the audience, too. When everyone in the arena is shouting and cheering, human nature makes you want to go along. At 2003 Worlds in Dormund, I think the judging panel was pleased to be able to give the bronze to Lindemann over an equally strong performance by Lambiel.

In dance, Winkler and Lohse were not only from the host country but also were sentimental favorites because they were retiring that year after a long career. Most people thought they were held up a little for bronze against Grushina and Goncharov, and maybe even against fifth place finishers Belbin and Agosto.

MM

Interesting comments on who should win the Olys:

1. The skater with the most fans?

2. A conspiracy of judges?

3. The judges deciding payback for previous competition?

My comments on the above:

1. With the entire Russian speaking world, and the NonKwans, Irina would win under this method but, It won't sell in Cincinatti.

2. No conspiracy can happen in Torino. Everyone knows it would be the end of Figure Skating for many years to come.

3. Giving perceived wrong results from a previous competition as the criteria for gold does not justify how much all skaters are worthy in the present competition.

IMO, Irina is the top contender - no problem. Under CoP we will not know who gave her the highest or lowest scores. We may gather some information from the judges names who are in the mix. There are many judges who have origins in Russia. How many of them will be judging, we just have to wait and see.
We do know there is a split between certain nationalities in the judging. This was evident in SLC in Ladies as well as in Pairs. So judging regardless of those who have full faith in their honesty, is looked upon by me, with skepticism. However, in Irina's case, she has proven her worth with her enormous CoP scores and I doubt any whinning will take place if she skates clean in Torino and wins.
I don't think giving her gold for SLC will play into this except maybe with a few Russofile judges and I doubt there will be more that two judges who lean to Russian favoritism.

So go Irina, it's yours to lose.

Joe

The main issue I see in the system, as opposed to the individual judges, their incentives, etc., is that instead of judging the judges by how out-of-line they are against the written code, they are judging judges by how out-of-line they are against each other.

If there's any more incentive for every judge to figure out ahead of time what his/her peers will do and to come in with predetermined scores, it is that, and it crosses all national lines.

Joe, I'd like to add one more to your list of possibilities. Since the clear favorites are now Slutskaya, Plushenko, Totmianina/Marinen and Navka/Kostamorov, do you think there will be any pressure on the ISU to "sacrifice" someone just so it won't look to television audiences like figure skating is an all-Russian sport?

MM

hockeyfan228 said:

The main issue I see in the system, as opposed to the individual judges, their incentives, etc., is that instead of judging the judges by how out-of-line they are against the written code, they are judging judges by how out-of-line they are against each other.

If there's any more incentive for every judge to figure out ahead of time what his/her peers will do and to come in with predetermined scores, it is that, and it crosses all national lines.

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This is a good point - and ITA this is the most logical reason I've heard to date for much "conspiring." Or more likely, keeping PCS scores for a skater in line with past PCS scores. I think I understand the motive behind the "corridor" rules - to discourage a small group of judges from "conspring" to inflate / deflate scores. But I think the uninteded consequenses aren't so hot either. I hope they find a different way to handle judging discrepancies than this - hopefully when they also eliminate anonymous judging. Just had to throw that in there!

DG