Irina Slutskaya will win in Torino | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Irina Slutskaya will win in Torino

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Doggygirl said:
You need to take another look at the score sheets, especially before you comment about Sasha's technical arsenal. I won't get into spoilers, but just take a look at the top ladies LP base values for the GP events held so far this season. Who knows how any of these ladies will skate in the future. Just look at the facts in hand.

DG

I'll take a look at them and report back (in the TEB forum). But seriously, Cohen does not have the 3-3s or the consistency to compete against the top. It's like Kwan all over again- if someone raises their technical game at the OLYs (and lands it all), Cohen WILL get burned no matter how she does (OK, maybe if she tears the roof off). This is JMO.
 
S

SkateFan4Life

Guest
Actually, I had expected Irina to win the gold medal at Salt Lake City, based on her excellent fall 2001 season. And she came darned near to winning the gold, even with a flawed long program. Her "Tosca" had several awkward moments, and she received marks that were extremely generous, in my opinion.

Unless she falls three times, comes down with the flu, or forgets her program elements, she'll win the gold medal. :biggrin:
 

kyla2

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 24, 2004
Irina

Irina at Salt Lake skated a sloppy program and deserved to be behind Michelle. The Olympics are a whole new ball game and it remains to be seen how she will hold up. But I agree, the judges are overmarking her already and setting her up for a win, short of a complete meltdown.
 

Excidra2001

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Red Dog said:
I'll take a look at them and report back (in the TEB forum). But seriously, Cohen does not have the 3-3s or the consistency to compete against the top. It's like Kwan all over again- if someone raises their technical game at the OLYs (and lands it all), Cohen WILL get burned no matter how she does (OK, maybe if she tears the roof off). This is JMO.

So which lady(ies) at the top currently has a 3/3? And would you say those with 3/3(s) will beat out Kwan/Cohen with no 3/3(s) fairly?
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
kyla2 said:
Irina at Salt Lake skated a sloppy program and deserved to be behind Michelle. The Olympics are a whole new ball game and it remains to be seen how she will hold up. But I agree, the judges are overmarking her already and setting her up for a win, short of a complete meltdown.
Irina is no longer sloppy. She is very cautious - every element in her program is carefully executed. She is unlikely to fall, but will the program flow?

I'm one for a flowing program but some judges don't care about that as much as they care about a clean routine. What Irina has, imo, is a clean routine and command on the ice. The lack of balletic line is not a factor. I don't see 'command on the ice' in Sasha or Shizuka at the present time but both of them have balletic line 100 per cent over Irina.

Joe
 

Excidra2001

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Joesitz said:
I'm one for a flowing program but some judges don't care about that as much as they care about a clean routine. What Irina has, imo, is a clean routine and command on the ice. The lack of balletic line is not a factor. I don't see 'command on the ice' in Sasha or Shizuka at the present time but both of them have balletic line 100 per cent over Irina.

Joe

ITA. If your looking for a flowing program from Irina watch her current SP, she goes from element to element with absolutely no effort.
Although a lot of people liked her last year's SP, I didn't. Her current SP is superb, magical and just so damn exciting to watch. But her LP program, very different for her, still needs WORK.
 

Doggygirl

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 18, 2003
Joesitz said:
Irina is no longer sloppy. She is very cautious - every element in her program is carefully executed. She is unlikely to fall, but will the program flow?

I'm one for a flowing program but some judges don't care about that as much as they care about a clean routine. What Irina has, imo, is a clean routine and command on the ice. The lack of balletic line is not a factor. I don't see 'command on the ice' in Sasha or Shizuka at the present time but both of them have balletic line 100 per cent over Irina.

Joe

Wow. I sort of have the opposite opinion. I really like Shiz's overall "style" (in my own subjective department) over Irina's, if Shiz would just LET GO and SKATE. She strikes me as the cautious one in each performance SP & LP I've seen of hers so far this year. But I think her programs have great potential, and I really hope she's a serious contendor by Oly's. And I believe she could be.

Irina skating with caution??? I would say Irina's LP at COC was a bit on the cautious side, but her SP???? I know much if this is in the eye of the beholder..... I think maybe we "behold" differently. But that's what makes this sport interesting!

DG
 

swannanoa54

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
I must have been on the phone when Irina skated that "exciting" SP at CoC. Honest, I just didn't get the excitement. It was powerful and fast-yes. Maybe that's exciting to some people, but not to me. I have a problem with powerful, fast skating that lacks connection to the music. But that's just me again.

Her LP bores me to tears. I liked her Worlds' LP far better. She just doesn't get the music no matter how many times she says she "feels" it. I realize that Irina is "da bomb" right now, but I certainly hope things change because, quite frankly, I don't want to see someone win who "racks" up points based on powerful jumps, fast skating, 1000 Biellman positions and no flow. And this is said by someone who really did like Irina and her skating until COP came along and she started playing catch foot.

I don't think Sasha stands a chance of winning OGM. I don't think Kwan stands a chance of medaling (but there's always hope) because of her injury this year.

I, personally, think Irina's set up to win the OGM. That it's hers. And that she could only land 3 jumps, everyone else skate great, and still win.
 

Excidra2001

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
realistic51 said:
I must have been on the phone when Irina skated that "exciting" SP at CoC. Honest, I just didn't get the excitement. It was powerful and fast-yes. Maybe that's exciting to some people, but not to me. I have a problem with powerful, fast skating that lacks connection to the music. But that's just me again.

Her LP bores me to tears. I liked her Worlds' LP far better. She just doesn't get the music no matter how many times she says she "feels" it. I realize that Irina is "da bomb" right now, but I certainly hope things change because, quite frankly, I don't want to see someone win who "racks" up points based on powerful jumps, fast skating, 1000 Biellman positions and no flow. And this is said by someone who really did like Irina and her skating until COP came along and she started playing catch foot.

I don't think Sasha stands a chance of winning OGM. I don't think Kwan stands a chance of medaling (but there's always hope) because of her injury this year.

I, personally, think Irina's set up to win the OGM. That it's hers. And that she could only land 3 jumps, everyone else skate great, and still win.

Different strokes for different folks. In the eyes of the judges currently she has the SP program to beat, and I tend to agree with that.
Whether Irina will be "held up" by the judges in Torino remains to be seen. You'd think some people would use Moscow as a backdrop when forming such conclusion as "Irina will in Torino no matter what".
I know the best-skater will walk away with the gold medal in Torino, the integrity of skating depends on it.
 

mzheng

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 16, 2005
Excidra2001 said:
Different strokes for different folks. In the eyes of the judges currently she has the SP program to beat, and I tend to agree with that.
Whether Irina will be "held up" by the judges in Torino remains to be seen. You'd think some people would use Moscow as a backdrop when forming such conclusion as "Irina will in Torino no matter what".
I know the best-skater will walk away with the gold medal in Torino, the integrity of skating depends on it.
Well, IMO, if ppl use Moscow as the backdrop then ppl wont talk about Irina being 'held up' by the judges if judge place her first as long as she stays on her feet in SP (since I quoted the post talk about the SP) at Turino, no matter what others skates.....backdrop or stage whatever you call it, the case already being made precedence.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I don't think Sasha stands a chance of winning OGM. I don't think Kwan stands a chance of medaling (but there's always hope) because of her injury this year.


Well, I would think Cohen has some chance at the OGM. It's just not looking too favorable right now. It's skaters like, say, Fumie Suguri that seem to be a lost cause, IMO.

And I never would count Kwan completely out. OGM? That would be surreal. A Medal? Not out of the question. She could be the one to bump Cohen off the podium if she falters.
 

ladybug

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Before Michelle's injury, I thought she might give Irena a run for her money. Now we are talking a different story.

She will probably have to relearn her triples and I think the 3/3's she was working on will be gone. Kind of like what happened to her in 98. She was working on her spins this year but I can't help but wonder if she will be able to get back into her preinjury form. Add to that she has had no competition judges feedback.

I'm just hoping she has the skate of her life no matter what her scores are.

I wouldn't count out Sasha. I think if they both remain on their feet, it will be Irena's OGM but if Irena falls, and Sasha doesn't, she could be the surprise winner this time. Their scores are very close.

Ladybug
 

Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
Yes, it really looks like the judges are favouring Irina. In my opinion she was robbed in her SLC short programme and lost the Olympic gold medal because of it. Maybe she is getting compensation...?

I feel that the top skaters competing against Irina should have realized quicker this new direction (already before the 2005 Worlds) and worked to have same technical assets and used CoP to their advantage the way Irina has been doing for two seasons now. Why haven´t they? In men´s skating Buttle´s choreographer and coach have understood to benefit from the new scoring system.

I would imagine Arakawa and Cohen being the top contenders against Irina in Turin. I hope very much that they both will forget the thought about medals and instead will fully concentrate on trying to skate their best.
 
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nymkfan51

Medalist
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Doggygirl said:
Irina has the strongest PCS scores of the season for far, that's a fact. But where are you getting that her PCS scores are steadily going up? She had an awesome skate at World's, in particular the LP. Her total PCS for SP+LP was 96.41. COC was the first international competition since World's. She had an awesome SP, and a solid LP (IMO). Her PCS for SP+LP was 95.32. Yes, very close to her combined PCS at World's. But certainly not what I would say is "steadily going up." That looks more to me like "holding pretty steady since World's, to the best that can be assessed from one international competition since then."

I understand the very subjective nature of fandom, and to the particular degree that judging is subjective. But Geez. Some of this stuff just goes beyond what actual facts seem to support in my opinion.

DG

I stand corrected Doggygirl ... I thought they had gone up.
But ... IMO, her LP from COC was nowhere near that of her LP at Worlds ... so one could conclude that since she is getting similar PCS for a lesser program now, that they would indeed be higher if she had a LP like she did in Moscow.

Just speculation though ... I certainly could be wrong.
 

attyfan

Custom Title
Medalist
Joined
Mar 1, 2004
I think Kwan might medal. Consider:

(1) Reigning World Champ is from former Soviet Union, with name ending in "na" and;

(2) Reigning Oly bronze medalist, reigning world medalist, and reigning US Nat Champ went to Worlds the year before an Olys, had worse skate of her life, finished off podium, and is now threatened by skater with triple axel and is facing a pre-Oly injury; and

(3) US ice dance team has citizenship problems that may keep them out of Olys (with reports of a family member of a rival team asking their Congressman to "look into things")

It is looking like a repeat of 1994. If anyone gets whacked, though, IMO, it will be $peedy who did it, trying to bring back the "big money" days.
 

kyla2

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 24, 2004
JoeSitz and Excidra

Sorry, but since when has coming to a dead stop after a jump been "good flow?" She IS still doing it. Yes, she goes from element to element, and she tries to cover the dead stops up, but she still has poor flow out of some of her jumps and that effects the look of the jump, which SHOULD be a deduction. I think her LP is beatable because it is lackluster. Her short is very good and she shines there like she always has. But her long is about Bielmans and spins that's it.
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
Doggygirl said:
Irina has the strongest PCS scores of the season for far, that's a fact. But where are you getting that her PCS scores are steadily going up? DG
I think some posters looked at the 8s in her scores and noted they were higher than 7s and therefore jumped to a conclusion. I believe Irina was the first skater to break the 7 barrier. I'm not sure if the 8s are in other disciplines as well.

Will the 8 barrier be broken this season and if so, by whom? We'll be looking atg 9s as the competitions get heated. Much of it, unfortunately, subjecti vely and subliminally.

Joe
 

attyfan

Custom Title
Medalist
Joined
Mar 1, 2004
STL_Blues_fan said:
i am sorry, attyfan, I am not following your post. Could you please explain???

Yana

Right now, things are looking like a repeat of 1994. You have Irina as Oksana (Ukraine was part of former Soviet Union); and Tanith Belbin in the role formerly played by Gorsha Sur (ice dancer needing citizenship to compete in Olys), and Sur's bid for citizenship was derailed by his competitive rivals -- and it is rumored that someone tried to do the same to Tanith. Michelle IMO, so far, is in a place similar to that of Nancy Kerrigan, who was the reigning Oly bronze medalist, reigning world medalist and reigning US champ in '93, where her FS was the worst skate of her life (similar to Michelle's QR in Moscow). It was only six weeks before the Olys when Nancy was injured (the "great whack"), but she came back to have the skate of her life and earn an Oly in Lillehamer. Since there are so many similarities to 1994, and especially between Michelle and Nancy, I think that the ending for both might be the same -- the skate of their lives and an Oly medal.
 

STL_Blues_fan

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 24, 2004
attyfan said:
Right now, things are looking like a repeat of 1994. You have Irina as Oksana (Ukraine was part of former Soviet Union); and Tanith Belbin in the role formerly played by Gorsha Sur (ice dancer needing citizenship to compete in Olys), and Sur's bid for citizenship was derailed by his competitive rivals -- and it is rumored that someone tried to do the same to Tanith. Michelle IMO, so far, is in a place similar to that of Nancy Kerrigan, who was the reigning Oly bronze medalist, reigning world medalist and reigning US champ in '93, where her FS was the worst skate of her life (similar to Michelle's QR in Moscow). It was only six weeks before the Olys when Nancy was injured (the "great whack"), but she came back to have the skate of her life and earn an Oly in Lillehamer. Since there are so many similarities to 1994, and especially between Michelle and Nancy, I think that the ending for both might be the same -- the skate of their lives and an Oly medal.

Ok, thanks for the explanation, your first observation threw me off. Irina's family name is Slutsky (either Russian or Polish), Slutskaya is a female version; whereas Bauil is an Ukranian last name which is often the same for both females and males, so there is no special ending).

Also, I had no idea about somebody (allegedly) from the competition preventing Tanih obtaining US citizenship. Since their situation is so much more different from Renee and Gorsha - there are 3 spots on the Olympic team as opposed to a single one available in 1994, I also did not make a connection. These allegations are news to me and I do not see the logic behind. Clearly Tanith and Ben are far above their competition , so if there is a team behind the "anti-compaign" it must be a team battling for the 3rd spot or 4th. But since there is no clear team to get either bronze or pewter medal at the upcoming Nationals, they really must be sure of themselves to go and try to sabatage Belbibn's US citizenship. If it's true, then it's dispeakable (btw, I never liked Elizabeth and Jarrod after 1994).

Anyways, thanks for the explanation. Your observations and analyses are very interesting. I guess the only difference now is that Nancy had 2 years between Olympics, the scoring system didn't change whereas Michelle has 4 years with a new scoring system. Also, those are her 3rd Olympics, so naturally she is older than Nancy.

So we shall see.

Yana
 
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