What's Going ON? Men!

Plushenko and Klimkin have only 1 GP. I doubt if 12 will be enough to skate the Final. Most likely Plush will win and not go anyway if 12 is ok.
Both Klimkin and Plush will keep others from getting points, but that's the way it is in skateland.

Weir without a chance for the Final may skate well and prevent others getting points.

This event is very important to Lambiel. He must get on podium.

Lindemann has this and NHK to qualify for the Finals. a good score here would help.


GP Standing Thus Far

Sandhu 24
Buttle 21
Joubert 16

(Goebel, Griazev, Weiss, - all finished and out of Finals.)
(Weir,Li and Dobrin - need a miracle)

Joe

IMO, Men's GPF still has some WIDE openings...

I would say the only two so far that are a "Lock" are E-man and Buttle (Go Canada!!).

I would say Joubert is very likely with 16, but not a 100% lock.

Takahashi with 12 points from SA still has NHK to go.

Lysacek is IMO, a less likely candidate but has 9 with NHK to go.

Lambiel has 9 with COR to go - will be interesting with Plush / Klimkin / Lindemann / Weir in the lineup there.

Oda has 7 with NHK to go.

Lindemann still has both events to go. They will not be easy, but one never knows.

So IMO, a lot can still happen for SURE in the last 3 of 6, and I'm not 100% convinced that Joubert is a lock.

The next two comps should be VERY interesting!!!

DG

DG - I agree with your post. I was just concentrating on COR. After COR we will reexamine GPF with NHK.

It is a tight race to the finish.

Joe

It will be interesting to see how Plushenko, Lambiel, and Weir all look. Weir had the meltdown due to injury at Skate Canada, but had been having meltdowns and emotional torment in the month before that at the Cheesefests, etc......Lambiel was so-so at Cup of China and has the pressure of being the surprise World Champion from last year, Plushenko is the top dog but there is some question until people see him for the first time since his injuries that ended his season before the final free program of Worlds last year. I predict the final results will be something like this though:

1. Plushenko
2. Lambiel
3. Weir or somebody else

Joesitz said:

It is a tight race to the finish.
Joe

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And to me anyway, that's what makes a sports season exciting!!

So - who besides me will be "sneaking" trips to the computer over the holiday weekend???? (well, I don't exactly have to sneak, I will just "explain." - we'll see how that goes)

DG

slutskayafan21 said:

Plushenko is the top dog but there is some question until people see him for the first time since his injuries that ended his season before the final free program of Worlds last year.

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I believe his 'injuries' were a medical condition called hernia and that it was successfully taken care. Other than his knees which have never given him any problems in skating was there yet another injury?

Yes, we are looking forward to him in the COR.

Joe

Plush does not want to make the finals like last year because of weir's withdraw. He wants to have plenty of rest to prepare for nats,euros and the olys

Joesitz said:

I believe his 'injuries' were a medical condition called hernia and that it was successfully taken care. Other than his knees which have never given him any problems in skating was there yet another injury?

Yes, we are looking forward to him in the COR.

Joe

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No that is it, but can you really be sure until he actually skates? Very few people claim to seen much of him, and a hernia and knee injuries, even if one was repairead, and others were managed before, are still significant.

slutskayafan21 said:

No that is it, but can you really be sure until he actually skates? Very few people claim to seen much of him, and a hernia and knee injuries, even if one was repairead, and others were managed before, are still significant.

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I don't think his knee problem is from an injury but from a condition of misoveruse of the knees. It is not so uncommon in dance and figure skating,. The meniscus just wears away (like mine did). I believe Sokolova, Lambiel had surgery for this condition fairly recently. Both are skating quite well now. Plush has postponed the surgery so far because it doesn't seem to affect him. If you hear of anything definitive on his knees, please let us know.

Joe

I think that Plush has had on and off again back problems....hopefully will not attempt to contort himself into a B-man spin this year (just the catchfoot spin looked a little labored from the ARD gala video). CoR should be quite interesting, to see how recovered he is, Klimkin is, and Weir.

Joesitz said:

I don't think his knee problem is from an injury but from a condition of misoveruse of the knees. It is not so uncommon in dance and figure skating,. The meniscus just wears away (like mine did). I believe Sokolova, Lambiel had surgery for this condition fairly recently. Both are skating quite well now. Plush has postponed the surgery so far because it doesn't seem to affect him. If you hear of anything definitive on his knees, please let us know.

Joe

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Will be sure to do that. :agree:

Plushenko won't have to go to the GPF if he wins CoR. There will be lots of men with more than 12 points to assure of that.

Right now, these men are assured a place in the final:
Sandhu 24
Buttle 21
Joubert 18

At Cup of Russia, you have Plushy and Weir who can't make the GPF. Plushy will probably win. Lambiel, with 9 points, will almost certainly medal, and that will put him in the final. Lindemann and Weir each have a shot at a medal, and Lindemann skates again in NHK.

After CoR, add Lambiel to the list of qualifiers. That leaves two places for the GPF.

At NHK, Takahashi only needs to place 6th to qualify for the final (with 15 points). Count him in, too. That leaves just one last spot.

Lysacek has 9 points and needs only to win bronze to qualify
Oda has 7 points and needs to win silver to qualify
Honda and Ferreira have 5 points and need gold to qualify.
Lindemann will carry whatever points he earned at CoR and may he able to get enough points to either qualify or top Plushy's 12 points.

Any score greater than 12 pushes Plushy out of the GPF.

Chuckum - You will have to repeat your last few paras when we get to the NHK thread. The main point I was making in this thread was that Plush, Klimkin, Weir all can make the podium and while they can not get to the GPF, they will prevent others from adding to their scores, particularluy Lambiel, and for a first score, Lindemann.

Analyzing NHK will take place.

Joe

There is no question that Plushy is the overwhelming favorite to win CoR. But Klimkin has been away from competition for two years and he had stamina problems in the FS when he was in active training. I don't foresee Ilya beating the reigning World Champion at Cup of Russia, and don't see Ilya finishing on the podium at all. Klimkin finished first in the SP at Golden Spin with a score of 63.61 but was fourth in the FS, scoring 106.72. He wound up 3rd behind Gregor Urbas and Marc Anthony Craig. Klimkin's final score of 170.33 would have placed him fifth at Skate America, 8th at Skate Canada, 9th at Cup of China, and 6th at TEB.

Stephane scored 70.20 and 133.40 for a total of 203.60 at CoC. That score would have placed him 2nd at Skate America, 1st at Skate Canada, and 3rd at TEB. Stephane has only to finish 3rd at Cup of Russia to make the final. Yes, he could be beaten by Weir, if Weir is in prime condition. But Weir's ankle is still not 100%, so I think Stephane has the advantage. I think Stephane NOT making the podium is highly improbable. Weir COULD make the podium, but whether or not he will depends on his physical condition and whether or not he is finally comfortable with his revamped programs.

Lindemann is another thing entirely. He is not known for skating well in the GP, and I'd consider him a dark horse for a Final berth.