Sasha: coronation or upset in St. Louis?

Ogre Mage · Jan 6, 2006

Sasha has been bridesmaid to Michelle Kwan 4 times at the U.S. Nationals (2000, 2002, 2004-05). But now Michelle has withdrawn. Some questions:

*On a scale of 0 (absolutely no chance) to 10 (cosmic certainty) what are Sasha's chances of winning U.S. Nationals?

*What will it take for someone to upset Sasha? Who is most likely to do this?

*Will Sasha be more likely to skate better, worse or the same with Michelle not there? Will Michelle's pullout put more or less pressure on her?

Also, I don't think the 2006 U.S. ladies champ will have an asterisk next to their name because Kwan withdrew. Nancy Kerrigan in 1993 and Nicole Bobek in 1995 won their U.S. titles with less than spectacular performances and/or a weak field and I've never heard anyone call their titles illegitimate. When Maria Butyrskaya won Worlds in 1999, she was remembered as the oldest woman ever to win a world championship. No one says her victory was hollow because Michelle was suffering from a fever at that Worlds.

Vash01 · Jan 6, 2006

It will be a coronation for Sasha. I don't see anyone other than Kwan beating her and Kwan will not be there. Even if she has a subpar performance, I don't see the USFSA sending to Turin their best hope for an OGM with a loss.

I don't see Maria's world title in 1999 as the result of Michelle being sick. Maria skated well enough to win. If Michelle was not sick, that's no gurantee that she would not have made a mistake in the SP. It was this mistake that eventually cost her the title.

Vash

Tonichelle · Jan 6, 2006

Sasha would have to have a meltdown to totally have no chance....

Then again her biggest competition has always been herself so we'll see. GO SASHA! :rock:

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 6, 2006

Sasha's chances of winning the US title in 2006 on a scale of 0-10 is

TEN

Joe

Olderbear · Jan 6, 2006

Sasha's chances of winning the title? On a scale of 0-10, it's a 10! Comparing her to the ladies below her, she's in a class by herself.

Will she skate better of worse? I think better. The pressure will be off, and I think she'll want to show the USFSA that she deserves the title. However, even if she doesn't skate perfectly, she'll be held up thru the PC scores.

Now the real question is....who will come in second? That's a different thread, but will it be Kimmie or Alissa?

yelyoh · Jan 6, 2006

A 10!!!! Sasha now has it all together. She always had the talent but now she's stronger, more focused, and has the choreogrpahy. The real question marks are the next two medals, with Kimmie and Alysa and Emily and BeBe all battling it out for those pieces of medal. This is Sasha's year.

nymkfan51 · Jan 6, 2006

I actually think Sasha might have more pressure without Michelle being there ... because nothing less than gold now, will be acceptable IMO. I expect she will win ... I would put her chances at about 9.

cianni · Jan 6, 2006

Score

By Default probably a win. No way will the USFA let another skater win this one however it will always be a lingering by Default. I just hope Sasha can put her Foot in Mouth disease aside for once and not come off as cocky and arrogant as she does so many times. She has improved but needs more tact. I dont think she has to worry the gift will be there. An upset would be interesting though.

skatergirlaj · Jan 6, 2006

Ogre Mage said:
Sasha has been bridesmaid to Michelle Kwan 4 times at the U.S. Nationals (2000, 2002, 2004-05). But now Michelle has withdrawn. Some questions:

*On a scale of 0 (absolutely no chance) to 10 (cosmic certainty) what are Sasha's chances of winning U.S. Nationals?

*What will it take for someone to upset Sasha? Who is most likely to do this?

*Will Sasha be more likely to skate better, worse or the same with Michelle not there? Will Michelle's pullout put more or less pressure on her?

.

I'd say an 8

It would take someone skating 100% clean and really bringing it artistically and Sasha to fall or make a few minor mistakes.

I think she is likely to skate the same michelle or no michelle. I don't think it'll put more pressure on her,because if Kwan gets the bye,it doesn't matter how well she skates,or anyone skates for that matter,only 2 of the 3 spots will be open for grabs. there is 1 person who will medal at Nationals who will be excluded from going to the Olys because of this. So the spot that they'll be skating their butts of for after Sasha most likely wins the Gold will be that Silver medal.No one will want the Bronze,cause it means a ticket to the sidelines....*so not fair*

Frau Muller · Jan 6, 2006

I give it an 8.

Alissa could beat her handily if she performs as at SkAm or SkCan...not the G-P Finals meltdown. If the judges judge the TES fairly, Alissa has the deeper edges on spirals, the faster spins, exact musicality, more interesting transitional moves, etc., to beat Sasha. Alissa would have to be 100% perfect in her jumps. It could happen. The short programs will tell a lot....Sasha usually wins that...if Alissa is a close 2nd on points, for the SP, Alissa definitely stands a chance to pull up in the LP.

Less Pressure on Sasha? It could help & it could hurt, as some competitors have their guard 'down' when they think that a title is 'in the bag.' Sasha will have to concentrate as hard as she would were Michele there.

Kwanford Wife · Jan 6, 2006

On one hand, I'd say a 10... The stars are aligned for Sasha at this moment in time.

On the other hand... I agree with the poster who pointed out that no one will want to skate for the bronze and we have the opportunity to see somebody pull a Sarah and have the proverbial "skate of a lifetime" with Sasha feeling for the first time ever the pressure of being chased vs. chasing. In an Olympic year that might prove to be a bit much between the media, speculation, constant questioning of "could you win with Kwan here?" type of thing that goes on at Nationals. She might also put additional pressure on herself to prove that she deserves her first major title...

So, I'd give her a 7 ~ even though I'm certain she will win, I'm looking forward to seeing the how she wins part...

Joesitz (RIP) · Jan 6, 2006

I think what posters giving out the 10 mean is that it's Sasha's to lose.

Joe

show 42 · Jan 6, 2006

I'd give her a 9.......It won't be handed to her if she has multiple slips and falls, however.........they'll forgive a few baubles.........I hope she holds it together.....42

bronxgirl · Jan 6, 2006

I wonder what would happen if Sasha's nerves don't hold up. She's never been in this position at Nationals before, and while I certainly expect her to win, I would not be completely surprised if someone else pullled off the skate of a life time and kept Sasha on the 2nd step of the podium.

new_europe2006 · Jan 6, 2006

bronxgirl said:
I wonder what would happen if Sasha's nerves don't hold up. She's never been in this position at Nationals before, and while I certainly expect her to win, I would not be completely surprised if someone else pullled off the skate of a life time and kept Sasha on the 2nd step of the podium.

Sasha has never been able to handle pressure before so it wouldn't shock me if there was an upset at Nationals.

R.D. · Jan 6, 2006

With MK there, I think Cohen's chances would have been right around the 5.5 border.

Now I'd say it's a solid 7.

You see, I think Cohen can still win this with a few mistakes. It's not only Cohen under pressure but EVERYBODY will be under pressure. But I think the title being basically within her grasp could freak her out- maybe not during the SP but the FS. Or it may bring out the best in her, to want to win that title fair and square without any doubt like an "invisible asterisk" or "she won because Kwan wasn't there", etc. There's just no way of knowing how things will turn out.

But to be blunt, this ladies event has the potential to be a real snoozer. (Some of you call it a "splatfest", and that's fine, too.)

On the bright side, we might get to see a skater on TV we otherwise wouldn't have seen with MK competing.

Jhar55 · Jan 6, 2006

I'll give it an 8, Sasha still needs to skate 2 clean programs.
I also think if one of the other ladies Aylissa, Kimmie skate clean and are judge fairly they can win.
It's going to very interesting!!!!

*~RussianBleux~* · Jan 6, 2006

If she skates perfectly, it's hers.

If she, Alissa, and Kimmie all make mistakes, it's still hers.

If she makes mistakes and Alissa or Kimmie skates perfectly, there is a good chance one of them could take the title from her. It's all about how she can handle her nerves, and her past experience indicates that she has a hard time doing this. She has never skated a clean program in a major competition, and I'm sure thats frustrating as often times the doors are wide open for her and all she needs to do is be clean. What is there to make me think that she will be clean now, when she has never been able to pull it together before?

Overall, I'd put her chances at an 8. There is definitely room for others to squeeze in if she makes mistakes.

BTW, I think that Kimmie and Alissa are the only competitors that have a chance at beating Sasha at nationals, if anyone has the chance. Both of them have already had the sucess in the GP events that neither Emily nor Bebe have had, and I think that gives them a slight edge.

If everyone is clean, I predict Sasha will win it, Alissa will get the silver, and Kimmie will get the bronze, therefore Michelle, Sasha, and Alissa will go to Torino.

R.D. · Jan 6, 2006

Well, the door may have been open in the past, but it's WIDE open this time.

dancindiva03 · Jan 6, 2006

I'd put her chance at walking away with gold at about a 5. It is quite possible that she could at last put it all together when it really matters. More likely though is that she will have her usual SashaSplatFest. If no one else goes clean, she could still win with a meltdown because it is obvios that the judges have been dying to crown her since day one. But if Alissa skates up to her capability and Kimmie manages to fully rotate her 3A and a 3-3, I don't think Sasha's little mistakes can be ignored. No doubt it is hers to lose, and that is how she will skate it. Not to lose. And I think she will be very nervous, and she will falter. I don't think she "controls her own destiny", she will need "help" from others in order to win.

Sasha: coronation or upset in St. Louis?

Ogre Mage

Vash01

Tonichelle

Idita-Rock-n-Roll

Joesitz (RIP)

Olderbear

yelyoh

nymkfan51

cianni

skatergirlaj

Frau Muller

Kwanford Wife

Joesitz (RIP)

show 42

Arm Chair Skate Fan

bronxgirl

new_europe2006

R.D.

Jhar55

~RussianBleux~

R.D.

dancindiva03

Match Penalty

Similar threads

Connect with us