Now that it's official, can Michelle win the OGM?

slutskayafan21 · Feb 4, 2006

Sasha was not that high on the international judges yet. She ended up 3rd in the short because she skated on fire, and took some 2nd place votes, since she skated her best short, Irina was unusualy tenative in her short, Hughes was shaky and loses points in her short with flutzes and cheated jumps, and Butyrskaya skated her worst short of the whole year, extremely conservative and tedious. Still not one judge had her over Michelle, she was still behind Irina, and 3 even had Maria's tedious nervy performance over her, although Maria ended up below Sarah in 5th.

In the long her fall on the end of an attempted difficult triple-triple was her only error, she still ended up getting almost no ordinals better than 4th though.
Cohen actually landed 6 clean triples, Kwan two-footed a jump in addition to her fall so had only 5 and no triple flip, one of the more important triples, while Irina did not fall she was slow and had multipled errors, and actually only had 5 clean triples as well. So Cohen ended with more clean triples than either Kwan or Slutskaya and had a more "on" performance than both yet only 1 judge had her over Kwan, and only 1 over Slutskaya I believe.

CantSpin · Feb 4, 2006

Kwan

mzheng said:
lol, She already deluted the SP on fly at Marshalls.

:scratch: She had to. Hadn't she been jumping for barely a week at that time? I thought it was pretty gutsy of her to go out against Sasha Cohen, who was in great shape, and do her short program in front of a crowd for the first time, knowing she probably wouldn't skate it well, and knowing she'd be crucified (which she was). Of course, when any other skater (except Kwan) comes back after an injury, they're praised to the skies for whatever they attempt, and there's always great mention of how much they've gone through (i.e., Irina) and how well they've done considering their terrible misfortune and injuries - even if it's only a broken fingernail. :laugh:

Not Kwan. She's not allowed any room for error at all.

R.D. · Feb 4, 2006

CantSpin said:
:scratch: She had to. Hadn't she been jumping for barely a week at that time? I thought it was pretty gutsy of her to go out against Sasha Cohen, who was in great shape, and do her short program in front of a crowd for the first time, knowing she probably wouldn't skate it well, and knowing she'd be crucified (which she was). Of course, when any other skater (except Kwan) comes back after an injury, they're praised to the skies for whatever they attempt, and there's always great mention of how much they've gone through (i.e., Irina) and how well they've done considering their terrible misfortune and injuries - even if it's only a broken fingernail.

Not Kwan. She's not allowed any room for error at all.

Remember she still won the fan vote.

And for every detractor, there are five praisers.

CantSpin · Feb 4, 2006

You're right, Red Dog!

Red Dog said:
Remember she still won the fan vote.

And for every detractor, there are five praisers.

Thanks for reminding me! It just seems the opposite sometimes!! :agree:

mzheng · Feb 4, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
In the long her fall on the end of an attempted difficult triple-triple was her only error, she still ended up getting almost no ordinals better than 4th though.
Cohen actually landed 6 clean triples, Kwan two-footed a jump in addition to her fall so had only 5 and no triple flip, one of the more important triples, while Irina did not fall she was slow and had multipled errors, and actually only had 5 clean triples as well. So Cohen ended with more clean triples than either Kwan or Slutskaya and had a more "on" performance than both yet only 1 judge had her over Kwan, and only 1 over Slutskaya I believe.

Now you are all counting number of jumps again. How about the ice coverage, deep edge, centered spins goes?

I just review 2002 worlds tape couple of weeks ago, 2002's sasha show her raw talent and fire in her skating, but her edge and spins no where near today's Sasha. Watch that tape, her spins(especially the camel) back in 2002 Worlds, no more fast than Kwan's who always got the lable of slowest spin.......Her spins are mostly improved (positions and speed) after she switched to TT. So are her edges.

mzheng · Feb 4, 2006

CantSpin said:
:scratch: She had to. Hadn't she been jumping for barely a week at that time? I thought it was pretty gutsy of her to go out against Sasha Cohen, who was in great shape, and do her short program in front of a crowd for the first time, knowing she probably wouldn't skate it well, and knowing she'd be crucified (which she was). Of course, when any other skater (except Kwan) comes back after an injury, they're praised to the skies for whatever they attempt, and there's always great mention of how much they've gone through (i.e., Irina) and how well they've done considering their terrible misfortune and injuries - even if it's only a broken fingernail.

Not Kwan. She's not allowed any room for error at all.

Sorry to confuse you. What I mean to say was tongue in check

. I read your first post (was it in this thread?) regarding Kwan's trainning and her abilities. I agree with what you are saying. It was consistant with what I've heard.

IIRC, actually she been jumping about two weeks back then. And in the beginning of that Marshall week, when she finally decided to go, she actually had a few of CLEAN run throughs with jumps and more contents.....It was during broadcasting MS watched and said she took quite a few things out.

I'm a Kwan fan nothing to me like to see her finally win THE medal. But I'm also very realistic, with her injuries, what's been going on with judging in NJS, and all behind scene dramas (I may post some after Olympics, when it is after facts). I'll say it is looooooooong shot for the Gold, but she does have a shot at the Gold. All depends how her trainning time works out for these last days leading into the Olympics. But it is not that a long shot for a medal.

kyla2 · Feb 4, 2006

If...

If Michelle even medals it will be a great victory for her, and also, one for the record books

demarinis5 · Feb 4, 2006

I agree Mzheng. I am hoping for that the long shot.

Joesitz (RIP) · Feb 4, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Actually they gave Hughes the scores she got because there were 3 skaters left who were good enough to have a chance to beat her, thus they could not box somebody in by giving say 5.8, 5.9 or 5.9, 5.8 for her performance. Thus 5.8, 5.8 was as high a bar as reasonable. What if they had given 5.8, 5.9, then Sasha skated clean, do I put her ahead or not, I still have Michelle and Irina left; then after that decision is made, what if Michelle skates an inspired performance, oh god I have to give 5.9, 5.9 now or did I already give that to Sasha and have to give a 6.0, oh and Irina is about to skate to, then maybe Irina has a great skate too, oh my god I am really screwed thinks the judge, oh wait I gave 5.8, 5.8 in case this happened, I am fine. :yes:

That was my point. Low marks for Sarah's LP and the three favorites couldn't even match them enough to win. I'm tired of what if's at the moment.

Ogre Mage · Feb 5, 2006

mzheng said:
I just review 2002 worlds tape couple of weeks ago, 2002's sasha show her raw talent and fire in her skating, but her edge and spins no where near today's Sasha. Watch that tape, her spins(especially the camel) back in 2002 Worlds, no more fast than Kwan's who always got the lable of slowest spin.......Her spins are mostly improved (positions and speed) after she switched to TT. So are her edges.

This was my impression also. Back in 2000-02 Sasha's stroking and edging were not very good and her spins had nice positions but were slow. Under Tarasova her spins and basic skating showed much improvement. I actually thought her stroking and edging (except for flutz) improved again with Robin Wagner, though her choreography was horrible.

For a time I hoped Jenny Kirk might be able to improve her spins, stroking and edging as Sasha did -- but it never happened.

mzheng · Feb 5, 2006

Ogre Mage said:
For a time I hoped Jenny Kirk might be able to improve her spins, stroking and edging as Sasha did -- but it never happened.

Me too. Kirk's edge never got any deeper until she left. All I can say she is a pleasant skate to watch, but her presentation is very shallow and facial. Always smile is not presentation....her stroking until she left still looks like those 'baby' stroking, by which I mean those fast frequency of tiny crossing overovers, which may give you impression she is fast through tv screen but not in arena. The elite level international skaters with this type strokes are: Yoshir Anda, Soklova, and some their names escaped from at this moment....It is strange when their jumps are so powerful, but their strokes are so weak.

flowjo35 · Feb 5, 2006

kyla2 said:
If Michelle even medals it will be a great victory for her, and also, one for the record books

ITA

A medal of any color will be a victory for Michelle. After the injuries this season and all the negative press. I hope she kicks some serious ice in Italy.

Vash01 · Feb 5, 2006

She has received so much flack just for getting the Olympic berth (over 'poor Emily') that a medal will certainly support the decision made to send her to the Olympics. If she wins the gold, it will definitely silence her critics. Most of all, I miss seeing her skate, and it will be great to see her skate two programs (and hopefully the exhibitions too).

Vash

Rgirl · Feb 6, 2006

Sorry to add another post, but didn't see this thread till today.

Just for the record: Rgirl says and has said Michelle will win the OGM in '06.

BTW & off-topic, but anybody know what the longest Michelle thread on GS has been?

Rgirl

slutskayafan21 · Feb 6, 2006

Rgirl said:
Sorry to add another post, but didn't see this thread till today.

Just for the record: Rgirl says and has said Michelle will win the OGM in '06.

BTW & off-topic, but anybody know what the longest Michelle thread on GS has been?

Rgirl

I havent been here long enough to know that, but I would guess it to be 52 pages if I had to.

By the way since you have a Biaul avatar are you a Biaul fan? Why did her engagement break up, that was a sad story.

FreeKatie · Feb 6, 2006

This is probably a dumb question, and I am assuming the answer is a very loud NO. But, is there any possibility of a tie in the new system? Wouldn't it be great if Irina and MK could tie? Talk about a Lifetime television movie for women.
If not, then I'm rooting for MK all the way.

attyfan · Feb 6, 2006

FreeKatie said:
This is probably a dumb question, and I am assuming the answer is a very loud NO. But, is there any possibility of a tie in the new system? Wouldn't it be great if Irina and MK could tie? Talk about a Lifetime television movie for women.
If not, then I'm rooting for MK all the way.

Theoretically, it is possible for two skaters to tiem, but only if they get the same TES and the same PCS in both parts of the program. Otherwise, if they only have the same totals, there are tie breakers (the higher TES wins the SP; the higher PCS wins the FS; if the totals scores are the same, the winner of the FS wins the event)

I agree wholehearedly that the most wonderful outcome of the Olympics would be a tie for the gold between Irina and MIchelle. I have had some wonderful dreams how the two ladies have to be helped onto the podium because they are giggling too hard to skate out by themselves, and, after he is giving duplicate golds in a system designed to avoid that precised outcome, $peedy's face is so red that he looks like he will explode!

slutskayafan21 · Feb 6, 2006

The odds of a tie are about 1 : 100000. I guess it could happen though. :rofl:

Vash01 · Feb 7, 2006

FreeKatie said:
This is probably a dumb question, and I am assuming the answer is a very loud NO. But, is there any possibility of a tie in the new system? Wouldn't it be great if Irina and MK could tie? Talk about a Lifetime television movie for women.
If not, then I'm rooting for MK all the way.

It is not a dumb question at all. The answer is yes, it can happen if the total marks at the end are exactly same for both skaters. It does not mean they must each get the same TES or PCS. Just the sum of TES & PCS in SP and the sum of TES and PCS in the LP has to add up to exactly the same. It is not impossible, but it is highly improbable that it will happen. I will be thrilled if Irina and Michelle tie for the gold.

Vash

Mathman · Feb 7, 2006

Vash01 said:
It is not a dumb question at all. The answer is yes, it can happen if the total marks at the end are exactly same for both skaters. It does not mean they must each get the same TES or PCS. Just the sum of TES & PCS in SP and the sum of TES and PCS in the LP has to add up to exactly the same. It is not impossible, but it is highly improbable that it will happen. I will be thrilled if Irina and Michelle tie for the gold.

No, I think Attyfan is right. The tiebreaking rules from the ISU site are

"Tie-break Rules

"Segment
"If two or more skaters have the same rank, the Total Element Score will break the tie in the Short Program and the Program Component Score will break the tie in Free Skating. If these results are also equal, the competitors concerned will be considered tied.

"Event
"If two or more competitors (singles or couples) receive an equal total for all parts of the competition combined (final result), the best placement shall be decided on the basis of the best placing for Free Skating or Free Dance. If this is equal, the competitors concerned are tied."

If two skaters were tied in the total number of points overall, then whoever had the highest in the free skate would win. If they were tied in the free skate and overall, then automatically they would be tied in the SP as well. In this case whoever got the highest PCS in the free skate would win.

So if it is a tie, that means that the two skaters got the same TOTAL score in the SP, and in the LP they not only got the same total but also the same TES and PCS.

It would seem logical that in this case the next tiebreaker would be, who won the SP by getting the higher TES. This is not stated in the rules, however, as far as I can figure out.

MM

Now that it's official, can Michelle win the OGM?

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

CantSpin

R.D.

CantSpin

mzheng

mzheng

kyla2

demarinis5

Gold for the Winter Prince!

Joesitz (RIP)

Ogre Mage

mzheng

flowjo35

Vash01

Rgirl

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

FreeKatie

attyfan

Custom Title

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty

Vash01

Mathman

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