Irina and Sasha may not have beaten Shizuka even with clean performance! | Golden Skate

Irina and Sasha may not have beaten Shizuka even with clean performance!

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 28, 2005
Irina and Sasha may not have beaten Shizuka even with clean performance!

It is funny how everybody is saying Sasha or Irina would have run away with gold without their mistakes., Actually though when one adds on the scores both likely would have had without the mistakes this is not the case. In fact Sasha probably would not have beaten Arakawa for gold even without her two mistakes, while Irina likely would have without her two mistakes.

Sasha lost:

3 lutz= -3.00
3 flip= -2.86
fall= -1.00
total= 6.88

her total score as it was: 183.36 + 6.86 = 190.22
Shizuka's total score= 191.34

In the short program Sasha received a -0.14 and a +0.29 for her triple lutz and triple flip when done cleanly, the two jumps she missed.

So 190.22 + 0.15 = 190.37
Shizuka's total score= 191.34

Now Irina:

181.44 was her final total score

Irina lost:

2 flip instead of 3 flip late in program= 4.2
fall on 3 loop=4.0
181.44 + 4.2 + 4.0 = 189.64

Irina did not do a triple loop in short. Lets assume she would have received the same for the triple loop and triple flip as her jump average in the short then:

1.85 GOE total in jumps in short divided by 3= 0.62, rounded off to 0.64, closest possable GOE score per jump.

0.64+0.64=1.28+ 189.64 = 190.92
Shizuka's total = 191.34


Does one really know either skater would have gained the PCS needed to overcome Shizuka's score then? Also even if so Shizuka doubled her triple loop.

Shizuka:

points lost by 2 loop instead of 3 loop late in program: 3.8

Even if she had received no GOE she would now be at:

191.34 = 3.8 = 195.14
Sasha = 190.37 before any PCS change
Irina= 190.92 before any PCS change
 

rain

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 29, 2003
See, I DO think Cohen would have won it with a clean program. I think her PCS would have gone up accordingly without the falls. (Actually, I thought Arakawa's scores were really inflated. Of course she deserved to win, don't get me wrong, but to establish a new benchmark high score with her performance? No. It wasn't even the best performance of that program that SHE's ever given. I think the judges went into Olympic Scoring fits, as they seem so prone to do.)
 

FreeKatie

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 21, 2005
rain said:
See, I DO think Cohen would have won it with a clean program. I think her PCS would have gone up accordingly without the falls. (Actually, I thought Arakawa's scores were really inflated. Of course she deserved to win, don't get me wrong, but to establish a new benchmark high score with her performance? No. It wasn't even the best performance of that program that SHE's ever given. I think the judges went into Olympic Scoring fits, as they seem so prone to do.)

ITA, I think if Sasha was clean, Shizuka would have had to pull out the two 3/3's or she would have been second. Shizuka had the cleanest performance, but it was not her best ever and overall I preferred Sasha's even with the falls. The overall performance was better and if she had been clean she would have brought the house down. Irina was all over the place, I think it was one of the worst performances I have ever seen her do, regardless of the fall and double jump, it looked messy and incomplete.
 

mzheng

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 16, 2005
There is no question to me that Shizuka is a better skater than either of them.
 

*~RussianBleux~*

Medalist
Joined
Oct 23, 2005
If everyone was clean, I think that Irina would have won it, Sasha would have still gotten the silver, and Shizuka would have ended up with the bronze(even with the 3/3s...a clean Sasha woud have been spectacular and her PCS would have been through the roof). Those are the results that seemed to be set up all season, they just didn't work out on that particular night.

I agree that Shizuka's scores were inflated, especially after Sasha faltered. Sometimes I feel that the element scores have more to do with the PCS then we would like to believe. If they all had been clean, it would have been a completely different story.
 

mzheng

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 16, 2005
John Zimerman, who view the competetion in arena, said Sasha lacks of speed. Which Irina has tons of. But Irina does not have lines, postures and refines both Sasha and Shizuka have.

Say what you want, Shizuka's skate no weakness. :chorus: Shizuka. :chorus:
 

slutskayafan21

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 28, 2005
mzheng said:
John Zimerman, who view the competetion in arena, said Sasha lacks of speed. Which Irina has tons of. But Irina does not have lines, postures and refines both Sasha and Shizuka have.

Say what you want, Shizuka's skate no weakness. :chorus: Shizuka. :chorus:

Although I am a big Irina fan I agree Shizuka is the most complete. She does not have any standout qualities, other than perhaps her basic skating skills, and her 3/3s when she does them but that is only 10% of the time. She has no weakness though, Sasha's small jumps and lesser skating skills are weakness,
and Irina's posture and lack of small details in her skating are weaknesses.

That is only when she is consistent though and Shizuka is a very inconsistent skater.
 

mzheng

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 16, 2005
slutskayafan21 said:
Although I am a big Irina fan I agree Shizuka is the most complete. She does not have any standout qualities, other than perhaps her basic skating skills, and her 3/3s when she does them but that is only 10% of the time. She has no weakness though, Sasha's small jumps and lesser skating skills are weakness,
and Irina's posture and lack of small details in her skating are weaknesses.

That is only when she is consistent though and Shizuka is a very inconsistent skater.

You may fault her on nerves. But not her skating. That's why she rarely have clean skates. Among these three, nerves goes to Irina.

It was said the same level skaters (who can do same types of jumps) in competing, mental toughness counts mostly.....also good basic skills (secure edges) helps you surrend yourself completely into your choreography. Bad jump technique will come back bite you when the pressure is on. See where Alisa went in Nationals.
 

dancindiva03

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 22, 2004
rain said:
See, I DO think Cohen would have won it with a clean program. I think her PCS would have gone up accordingly without the falls. (Actually, I thought Arakawa's scores were really inflated. Of course she deserved to win, don't get me wrong, but to establish a new benchmark high score with her performance? No. It wasn't even the best performance of that program that SHE's ever given. I think the judges went into Olympic Scoring fits, as they seem so prone to do.)
Sasha Cohen's PCS marks were ridiculously high already. I wouldn't have had them that high even if she had skated a clean program.
 

kyla2

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 24, 2004
Sasha

Sasha , hands down would have won if all had skated cleanly. No DancinDiva, Sasha's PCS scores were NOT ridiculously high, they were appropriate and well deserved. If she had skated cleanly, they would only have been higher.
 

rob43

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 1, 2005
I think this falls under the same coulda/woulda/shoulda strain that Kwan's potential placement is a part of. We simply won't know because it did not happen. Also- seeing how tightly they were grouped in the short none had a clear upper hand on the others.
 

rob43

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 1, 2005
I think this falls under the same coulda/woulda/shoulda strain that Kwan's potential placement is a part of. We simply won't know because it did not happen. Also- seeing how tightly they were grouped in the short none had a clear upper hand on the others.
 

havanamesa1

Rinkside
Joined
Sep 16, 2005
Had Sasha skated cleanly, Shizuka would have pulled out her 3-3s (or 3-3-3s) and would have exerted more effot to dazzle judges with her skating and would still have won over Sasha. JMO.
 

rjulie510

Rinkside
Joined
Jul 30, 2003
Had Sasha skated cleanly, she would've won, no doubt. She fell on opening triple flutz, which was supposed to be a combination, then put two hands down (practically a fall) on triple flip, which was also supposed to be a combination. I believe she was wonky on one spin and slightly two-footed triple salchow of her triple toe - triple salchow sequence. She had one combination, triple flip - double toe and one not-perfect sequence. Normally she does two combination and sequence, and she couldn't do a 3-jump running combination due to her mistakes. That adds up to A LOT of points where she could've racked up points, not to mention how without those mistakes her PCS would've been better./
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
The real problem I have with saying that she would have won is that you never know what the others might have brought to the table had she been clean. The others went conservative because they didn't really need to take risks in order to win now.
 

Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
I think that Arakawa´s skate was affected by what happened to Cohen. If Cohen had been clean, I´m sure that Arakawa would have gone for triple-triples to beat her. Especially as it has been mentioned how sure she has been with them (and the rest of her skating) in practices all the time, and also about her being in top-condition.

In my opinion Arakawa´s (or that of her coach) decision to go for triple-doubles was the best decision she could make after Cohen´s skate. With a clean performance she could beat Cohen and force Slutskaya to stay clean and go for triple-triples if she hoped to win. On her side Arakawa had a clean skate and really pleasing-to-the-eye looking interpretation and skating. After the short programme the differences were minimal between these three ladies, so the freeskate was decisive.

To comment on the title of this thread "Irina and Sasha may not have beaten Shizuka even with clean performance!", that cannot be answerered, not even guessed, LOL. The only thing I can say about the matter is that I believe Shizuka to be capable of beating them if everything goes perfectly for her.

I was very glad that my both big favourites got a medal: Shizuka the golden and Sasha the silver one.
 
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Vash01

Medalist
Joined
Jul 31, 2003
Red Dog said:
The real problem I have with saying that she would have won is that you never know what the others might have brought to the table had she been clean. The others went conservative because they didn't really need to take risks in order to win now.

ITA. Shizuka focused on skating clean, after Sasha's two falls. Irina got nervous when the opportunity was presented to her on a platter. Had the other two skated clean, she might have come out firing her 3-3 combinations and could have won. If Irina has skated the way she did in Moscow, the other two could not have beaten her.

We will never know what would have happened.

Vash
 

Vash01

Medalist
Joined
Jul 31, 2003
Jaana said:
I
In my opinion Arakawa´s (or that of her coach) decision to go for triple-doubles was the best decision she could make. With her clean performance she was able to force Slutskaya to stay clean and go for triple-triples if she hoped to win. On her side Arakawa had a clean skate and really pleasing-to-the-eye looking interpretation and skating.

It was a great strategy on the part of Shizuka and her coach.

Vash
 
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