If Michelle competes next year....

Red Dog said:

Am I the only one who thinks Kwan's competitive days are truly over?

If she goes back into heavy training she might re-injure herself. But show skating would still be good for her.

Even if she does come back, it will be really tough for her since she's been off the ice for so long.

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I'm not sure about this... Mainly because everytime I think her competitive days are over, the more she wins. Couple that with my long-term view of skating and the strange twists & turns I've seen over the past 15 years & I'm not so sure... But here's the rub. We can discuss this ad nuasum but we don't know anything ~ so as always it comes down to two camps... those that are fans for Kwan & want her to compete for selfish reasons and those that are not who don't want her to compete for selfish reasons. It is what it is.

But only Kwan knows for sure & I'm sure we will know soon enough...

Going back to the title of the thread, which is an opinion thread, I suspect that she will do the winter cheesefest and decide based on how she skates there whether to compete at Nationals. I'm guessing that Skate America is too soon after the COI tour and too early in the season.

I personally think both Kwan's and Cohen's eligible careers are coming to an end in the near future. If not now, then after next season. JMO

Red Dog said:

I personally think both Kwan's and Cohen's eligible careers are coming to an end in the near future. If not now, then after next season. JMO

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I agree, even though I would like to see both Sasha and
Michelle continue to compete forever. The injuries
that Michelle has dealt with this season were pretty
serious, darn it kept her out of competition all season.
She has been involved in hard training for most of her life.
Her body may be telling her enough. Sasha has had
her share of injuries too. Both of these ladies are
young ( in the non-skating world), talented and have
their future ahead of them. The only thing that I
hope (being selfish here) is that they both stay
involved with skating to some degree, so this fan
can enjoy their performances.

I agree that Kwan's injuries came about long before the CoP. She had shown even in her remarkable 2003 Worlds of leaving out certain moves which would have enhanced further the free skate. During the 2004 with Morosov's Tosca the Kwan camp said, the program had to be tweaked. And again with the Dean's Bolero, the program had to be tweaked. These Tweakings were to spare her back and hips from pain, imo. I believe this was sad because she had good choreographers giving her great routines which she had to change to spare her from pain.

I think all the tricks affected Kwan's skating, and it was not CoP that started the problem. Her problems began by substituting her father for Frank in 2002. However, I think after bagging a few more medals and keeping herself in the limelight kept the East West Skating Club in the limelight too. I'd be more interested in poster's comments on what makes Kwan skate then discussing her CoP impossibilities because a healthy Kwan can deliver the demands of CoP easily.

BTW. Has anyone heard of Kwan's future plans and if she is healthy?

As for Sasha's apparent demise after 2006 Worlds as was pointed out, I wrote a whole thing on her thread. There's plenty of alternatives for Sasha.

Joe

I think COP might actually be good for Kwan's competitive fate (sans Beillmans and catch-foots which apparently caused pain and no doubt are punishing on someone with prior back and hip 'aches'.)

Kwan has curtailed or changed training as far back as '01 in terms of those 2 problem areas. Is her condition one that could be helped with surgery? Or simply degenerative? I think if she was able to get healthy and COP took away the ability to use beillmans 301 ways, she would be near the head of the pack.

It will be odd to have no Sasha or Michelle at Nationals when the time comes. They've combined to win every program at Nationals since when - 98?

I think even the Michelle/Sasha haters will realize how good they were when we see comps without them.

Actually the initial topic was whether she would need to compete at regionals/sectionals if she decided to compete next year. Generally, it seems as though people think she'll either get a bye or need to compete at one grand prix event.

I would like to see Michelle compete at Nationals at least once more and use the programs developed for the 2006 Olympics. It's hard to say where Kimmie, Emily, Katy, Beatrisa and some other up and comers will be next year. If they only improve a little, I think Kwan can still beat them if she is healthy enough. However, they just might have a break through year, too - but that's part of the competition.

Her Hip injury had recovered. It was a groin injury that caused her withdrawl from Nationals and a 2nd different groin injury that caused her to withdraw from the Olympics. There are many skaters who have had groin injuries and have been able to return after allowing it to heal. Plushenko is an example - didn't he have to withdraw from 2005 World's because of a groin injury. Urmanov is an example of what can happen if you don't let a groin injury heal. His time had passed by the time he allowed himself time to heal.

My guess is that if Kwan shows up and doesn't have a meltdown, then she will get PCS scores that will win her the title. As for the bye to Nationals, in terms of legitimate ways of doing so, I think the only way of doing it through the Grand Prix is making the GPF, because that's how Alissa got a bye. I'm not sure. We'll see.

heyang said:

Actually the initial topic was whether she would need to compete at regionals/sectionals if she decided to compete next year. Generally, it seems as though people think she'll either get a bye or need to compete at one grand prix event.

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Unless things have changed since 2004, according to the Road to Portland story on the USFS site,

Skaters may also qualify to compete at the U.S. Championships by receiving a "bye." A bye may be earned either by placing in the top five at the U.S. Championships during the previous year, by medaling at the most recent Olympic Winter Games, by medaling at the most recent World Championships or by competing at an international competition that coincides with the sectional championship.

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Since Kwan doesn't qualify by placing in top 5 in the 2006 US Nationals, medalling at Torino, or medalling in Calgary, she'd have to compete in an international competition that coincides with her sectionals to get a bye to Spokane. I assume her regional would be Southwest Pacific in Culver City, CA (Oct 4-8) and her sectional would be Pacific Coast Sectional in Bozeman, MT (Nov, TBD). Depending on when in November, that might coincide with TEB or CoR, or even the one week break in between.

It seems like she'd have to commit to regionals by the deadline for Oct 4 to compete in Spokane, and unless the USFS schedules an international cheezefest to coincide with sectionals, she'll have to compete in Bozeman.

I can't believe Kwan would want to go through that whole scenario that Hockeyfan laid out. Regionals then Sectionals would be quite a chore for her to qualify for Nationals. But that's the Rules and getting yet another bye would just irk the international judges.

On the other hand, if she did go through Regionals and Sectionals, she may win support from the international community a la Irina during her comeback trail. Going through proper procedures would be the way for Kwan to go.

My gut feeling is that her back or hips or both are chronic and she will have a tough time in the upcoming season. A sweet skate at Marshalls or Campbells will not convince her, and those cheesefests will not include the Asian invasion Remember there are TES scores in international competitions..

Joe

Joesitz said:

I can't believe Kwan would want to go through that whole scenario that Hockeyfan laid out. Regionals then Sectionals would be quite a chore for her to qualify for Nationals. But that's the Rules and getting yet another bye would just irk the international judges.

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It depends who you mean by the international judges. My feeling is that international judges from other countries really couldn't care less how a skater got to their nationals...at most they'd be interested in the results of that country's nationals. Those judges will have enough on their plates looking at their judging assignments the internal polotics of their own federation and their own countries skaters. If you mean the US international judges, i guess that might be true but without knowing what their opinions on bye's being given to a skater like Kwan i think its hard to definiteively answer whether that would irk them or not.

What i can see happening is the "Kwan Factor" or "you're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't". She's Kwan therefore whoever wants to make any point in favour or against the decision will have ammunition. If she get's a bye, the detractors will say - oh typical Kwan get's special treatment so she doesn't have to do any competition until the coronation ceremony that is nationals. If she doesn't get a bye and has to compete the detractors will say oh typical greddy Kwan yet again carries on taking places of the younger skaters and she won't move on and retire only this time its even worse because she's denying little skater X or her cahnce to advance from regionals/sectionals, isn't she most hateful person ever to walk the earth.

Personally i don't see the point of making her compete at regionals and sectionals...and imagine the media circus at these smaller competitions. These are not huge arenas and people would come for miles to pay the tiny (compared to international evets) fees to see kwan compete in a more intimate environment.

Joesitz said:

On the other hand, if she did go through Regionals and Sectionals, she may win support from the international community a la Irina during her comeback trail. Going through proper procedures would be the way for Kwan to go.

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I don't really follow your argument here - Irina had support from everyone because of the serious nature of her illness, the fact it was not just a threat to her competitive future but to her life, and she made a comeback and was still skating. I don't know if Irina went through "the proper" channels to get to worlds that year in Dortmund - whether she competed in the Russian equivalent of regionals/sectionals, but i don't think she even competed at nationals that year and got assigned to worlds.

Ant

Well, even the mighty have to follow the rules every once in a while, right?

Thanks, Hockeyfan. I have been diligently reading this thread hoping someone would answer the question, and sure enough, 49 posts later -- voila!

Antman is right, this is a pickle for Michelle (assuming she wants to give it another try). What a bad break for some poor little girl who has a chance to finish fourth at sectionals and fulfill her life dream of skating in the national championship -- and here's 9-time champion Michelle Kwan shouldering her summarily off the ice.

Maybe Hockeyfan's idea will save the day. Schedule a couple of cheesefests on the days of regionals and sectionals. They should be able to get Irina to play along so they can call it an International competition.

MM

Well, USFS' annual fall cheesefest is usually held the first week of October, right? That would take care of a Regionals bye.

BTW, skaters intending to compete in U.S. qualifying competitions for Nationals usually must file their paperwork by September 1st.

If Kwan is healthy and wants to make a comeback, the way to go is the way Hockeyfan laid in on the line: Regionals and Sectionals. Stepping on some poor kid's toes is part and parcel of competitions.

The Campbells Cheesefest has never been more than a dress rehearsal for the upcoming season. It does produce lots of tweaking all around. All the international judges give their lst place to the skater of their countries. If Irina were to come, the Russian judge will give her first place only if she really is outstanding. Otherwise he will bow to a host country's skater. The other judges (all American) will give it to Kwan. Does it really prove that that she is well enough to skate in real competitions? The whole outcome is obvious. The fans of Kwan will be delighted to see her skate win or lose.

If there are some international skaters who do well at Worlds, maybe they will be invited to Campbells along with their respective judges. I doubt any of the Japanese skaters will make the trip given they have their own cheesefests.

Are there any statistics on these Cheesefests? I remember Sasha doing a beautiful Swan Lake at one of them. She's won more than one, hasn't she?

Back to Kwan. The international judges will not judge the US Nats, as it should be, but I can't believe they won't watch it on tapes of the competition. They will form opinions of the judging as well as the contestants.

As for Irina's seriious illness which is well documented and no argument, Michelle's injuries I would not exactly say were not serious. What Piseev allows for his skaters is his business. It is not the business of the USFSA.

Joe

Sylvia said:

Well, USFS' annual fall cheesefest is usually held the first week of October, right? That would take care of a Regionals bye.

.

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I would think, if she get bye at Regionals, then she automatically qualify a bye at Sectional. Since only top 4 finished in Regional advance to Sectionals, if she does not compete she can't advanced to Sectionals.

What i can see happening is the "Kwan Factor" or "you're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't". She's Kwan therefore whoever wants to make any point in favour or against the decision will have ammunition. If she get's a bye, the detractors will say - oh typical Kwan get's special treatment so she doesn't have to do any competition until the coronation ceremony that is nationals. If she doesn't get a bye and has to compete the detractors will say oh typical greddy Kwan yet again carries on taking places of the younger skaters and she won't move on and retire only this time its even worse because she's denying little skater X or her cahnce to advance from regionals/sectionals, isn't she most hateful person ever to walk the earth.

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Yeah, dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.......I still remember at the beginning of season even with Kwan camp and USFSA officially announce her injury she still dammed 'fake' it deemed by some fans.......and now see what happened to Cohen? The same fans quik to 'excuse' that she was injured, even with Camp Cohen officially 'denied'.

Joesitz said:

As for Irina's seriious illness which is well documented and no argument, Michelle's injuries I would not exactly say were not serious. What Piseev allows for his skaters is his business. It is not the business of the USFSA.

Joe

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By all means, this should be the way it is. Different federations different rules......the comparision happend only because the fans at the internet disscussion boards want to "make a favorate case for their favorate skater." Or "make a case against the direct competetor of their favorates."

International judges have NO INTEREST in how a skater qualifies for Worlds. None. Zero. If Kwan is interested in competing next season, the USFS can amend the criteria and give her a bye, if they want, at the annual meeting in May. I agree it is ridiculous for her to go to Regionals, particularly, and do some aspiring skater out of a chance at Sectionals. But if Kwan has to do Regionals/Sectionals she will, ridiculous as it is.

BTW, Sasha Cohen sat out 2001 Nationals due to a back injury and did not have to do 2001 Regionals/Sectionals. Instead she did no less than 5 early season competitions (Finlandia, Goodwill Games, Masters of Figure Skating, Skate America, Lalique) and a cheesefest, quite a feat for a skater coming back from a back injury.

One other thing: why on earth would international judges watch tapes of National competitions? I am sure they have much better things to do than "validate" federations' selection criteria. That is the most nonsensical suggestion I have ever heard.

chuckm said:

BTW, Sasha Cohen sat out 2001 Nationals due to a back injury and did not have to do 2001 Regionals/Sectionals. Instead she did no less than 5 early season competitions (Finlandia, Goodwill Games, Masters of Figure Skating, Skate America, Lalique) and a cheesefest, quite a feat for a skater coming back from a back injury.

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But back then this was her first injury. She was young and she was fresh out the stove, the motivation still there.

mzheng said:

I would think, if she get bye at Regionals, then she automatically qualify a bye at Sectional. Since only top 4 finished in Regional advance to Sectionals, if she does not compete she can't advanced to Sectionals.

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But she would if she got a Regionals bye due to the cheesefest.

Johnny Weir got a bye through North Atlantic Regionals in the fall of 2003 due to an international assignment (Finlandia Trophy), but had to compete at Eastern Sectionals one month later in order to qualify for 2004 Nationals (which he won for his first title).