Lysacek to take over as leader of U.S mens skating over Weir fully, for good next yr.

curious · May 22, 2006

Mathman said:
Well, IMHO it is entirely up to the skaters. The question of who USFS decides to throw their support to, I don't think that will play a role until after Nationals.

Quad, quad, quad. Whoever gets it first and most dependably will leave the other in the dust, IMO.

With a reliable quad, either could surpass Buttle (unless he gets a quad, too!) Then the question becomes, can either Weir or Lysacek really match up to Lambiel and Joubert?

MM

Johnny can definetely challenge Lambiel and Joubert with a reliable quad combo biggrin:

attyfan · May 22, 2006

IMO, if the USFS let the issue of "who does better at Worlds" color their vision of "who will win Nats", then Tara would have won in '98; Sarah in '03; and Sasha in '05.

Mathman · May 22, 2006

I do have to say, it looks like Lysacek is the one with Big Mo (momentum) on his side at present.

In sports it seems like you can't stand still. You are either on the way up or the way down.

Some folks made fun of Johnny's choice of words when he said his mojo left him, or he couldn't find that sweet spot in his soul, or whatever. But if we are agreed (LOL) that Weir is an inward-looking skater and Lysacek an outward-projecting one, then I think this self-analysis is right on the money.

For starters, Johnny needs the right music (whereas Evan can skate to anything, IMHO -- as he showed in his hodge-podge COI exhibition number, LOL.) Johnny, on the other hand, when he did Unchained Melody, he let the music set the tone, then he enhanced it with his skating. The audiences were rapt throughout.

But with My Way, the music did nothing and it was up to Johnny to get something going on his own at the end.

I felt the same problems with his competitive LP music last year. His coach's choice -- Johnny just "didn't feel the spirit." The next music they tried, Johnny thought he liked it until he got on the ice with it, then, meh. So he had to go back to something old.

MM

Spun Silver · May 22, 2006

I don't buy this idea at all. Johnny is not done. Listen to Plushenko!

Mathman · May 22, 2006

attyfan said:
IMO, if the USFS let the issue of "who does better at Worlds" color their vision of "who will win Nats", then Tara would have won in '98; Sarah in '03; and Sasha in '05.

One factor, I think, is that Americans put a lot of emphasis on their own national championship and don't really seem to care much about the international meets.

USFS has its own deal (outside of the ISU) with major network TV to televise U.S. Nationals live in prime time. Worlds is shuffled off to a cable station. At the Olympics, ice skating must share the spotlight with 100 other sports. And the Grand Prix competitions are shown on ESPN2 at midnight three weeks after the events.

Thus, for instance, we American Kwan fans are over the moon about Michelle winning 9 U.S. Championships, while fans from other countries say, a mere national title? So what?

attyfan · May 22, 2006

Mathman said:
One factor, I think, is that Americans put a lot of emphasis on their own national championship and don't really seem to care much about the international meets.

USFS has its own deal (outside of the ISU) with major network TV to televise U.S. Nationals live in prime time. Worlds is shuffled off to a cable station. At the Olympics, ice skating must share the spotlight with 100 other sports. And the Grand Prix competitions are shown on ESPN2 at midnight three weeks after the events.

Thus, for instance, we American Kwan fans are over the moon about Michelle winning 9 U.S. Championships, while fans from other countries say, a mere national title? So what?

As I understand it, all federations have their funding for things like their Nats outside of the ISU -- so the fact that Nats is on a separate contract (which will expire in 2007 -- and then it will be "to cable, also", if the USFS is lucky) doesn't mean that much, IMO. Also, I doubt that the fans of any country say "a mere National title" when "their skater" wins a bunch of them (i.e, Steve Cousins' getting introduced as "8 time British Nat champion" or B & K as "10 time Canadian Nat champion".)

slutskayafan21 · May 22, 2006

hockeyfan228 said:
While I would have expected his PCS to be lower in Calgary -- his performance seemed more invested in Torino -- what is critical, I think, is that in the quali round, Lysacek's PCS were slightly higher than Weir's, and in the SP, where Lysacek placed three places behind Weir, his PCS were only .43 lower.

Exactly, that is what I noticed as well.

slutskayafan21 · May 22, 2006

Evan was lucky this year his short program problems did not cost him much at all, except a possable bronze in Turin. He would not have been even close to beating Joubert or Lambiel at Worlds even with a clean short.

If Oda had skated better at Worlds his flawed short would have cost him a medal there too, but because Oda was struck by nerves Evan lost nothing because of his short program. At the Olympics his poor short did not cost him that much either since Weir and Joubert self destructed enough in the long for him to pass them even with his flawed short. So next year he will want to be more consistent in the short program, since he might not be as lucky next year in his short program errors costing him almost nothing like it did this year, circumstances just worked out that way this year.

Mathman · May 22, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Exactly, that is what I noticed as well.

Yes, but is what you are noticing a difference in the judging or a difference in the skating? Why can't we just say, Weir was flat in Calgary and this was reflected in lower than usual PCSs?

Mathman · May 22, 2006

attyfan said:
Also, I doubt that the fans of any country say "a mere National title" when "their skater" wins a bunch of them (i.e, Steve Cousins' getting introduced as "8 time British Nat champion" or B & K as "10 time Canadian Nat champion".)

True, everyone is proud of their own.

But looking at it from the outside, if someone wins a bunch of national titles it could just mean that there was no competition.

MM

PS. I hope you're wrong about USFS losing it's contract with ABC after next year. Can't they see how exciting it's about to become, especially in men's and dance?

What do they have to show that is so big as to bump figure skating, anyway. NASCAR? (Cars going round and round really fast -- whatever. :laugh:

)

slutskayafan21 · May 22, 2006

Jaana said:
I don´t think that their placements in US Nationals matters one bit, as long as they are on places one and two. Lysacek won two World bronze medals although he was not the US champion (= not being promoted?), and he definetely has won over the international judges´ attention towards his skating. What matters the most, is how these two skate and succeed in international competitions. Weir´s dropping from short programme 2nd place into 5th at the Olympics, did not leave a positive impression. Neither did it at Worlds, where he was 5th after short programme and 7th in final results.

Lysacek has gotten two bronze medals at Worlds and was also better than Weir in the Olympics. Lysacek needs to become more consistent in short programme. If he would be able to skate a faultless short programme and freeskate (with a quad) at Worlds, WOW, he would challenge Lambiel and Joubert (and so would Weir). As a competitor Lysacek seems mentally stronger than Weir, Weir is better in short programme though. What should be done to make Weir better at freeskate? More training, more concentration, a stronger and harsher coach?

I really like these skaters equally, they both have a great skating style of their own, different, but equally pleasing to my eye. I wish them both lots of good luck for next season.

Well I think any momentum towards Lysacek over Weir from the USFSA only started after the 2005 Worlds. At the time of the 2005 U.S Nationals this was not the case at all, so of course Weir would win easily there, plus he had by far the best skate of anybody at the 2001 Nationals. However by the 2006 U.S Nationals I think things were very different. Keep in mind at the 2006 U.S Nationals Lysacek had 3 major errors, 1 in the short, 2 in the long; Weir had an amazing short, his best free skate of the year, and Weir still barely won, by less then a point. Lysacek also had slightly higher PCS then Weir from those U.S judges, even with more glaring errors in that free skate. Despite Weir's 3rd straight U.S title, this shows some favortism towards Lysacek already building, within the U.S, by this point.

slutskayafan21 · May 22, 2006

attyfan said:
IMO, if the USFS let the issue of "who does better at Worlds" color their vision of "who will win Nats", then Tara would have won in '98; Sarah in '03; and Sasha in '05.

I believe it is who the USFSA feels is more probable to succeed at Worlds, this is not always cut and dried by a skater beating another at the previous Worlds. Even with Lipinski's 97 World title, Kwan was seen as equal or more of a chance at the 98 Oly Gold then Tara; and anyway she flat out far outskated Tara at Nationals that year. Sarah was never seen as the most likely American to succeed at World events, even after her Oly gold which was a very unlikely result in many peoples eyes. Sasha had only beaten Michelle for the first time at a Worlds ever at the 04 Worlds, and even there lost to her in the long program, both had been injured all year, Kwan was still seen as atleast equaly as much a contender for Worlds that year as Sasha at th time of the 05 Nationals; and she was also biding for the record anyway, and everybody wanted to see her get that tie for the U.S National titles record.

Mathman · May 22, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Well I think any momentum towards Lysacek over Weir from the USFSA only started after the 2001 Worlds. At the time of the 2001 U.S Nationals this was not the case at all, so of course Weir would win easily there, plus he had by far the best skate of anybody at the 2001 Nationals. However by the 2002 U.S Nationals I think things were very different.

Do you mean 2005 and 2006?

slutskayafan21 · May 22, 2006

Mathman said:
Do you mean 2005 and 2006?

Sorry I meant 2005 and 2006, I was thinking in quadrennial terms I guess. :laugh:

hockeyfan228 · May 22, 2006

Mathman said:
Yes, but is what you are noticing a difference in the judging or a difference in the skating? Why can't we just say, Weir was flat in Calgary and this was reflected in lower than usual PCSs?

But Lysacek wasn't exactly sparkling in his QR or SP, either.

slutskayafan21 · May 22, 2006

hockeyfan228 said:
But Lysacek wasn't exactly sparkling in his QR or SP, either.

Agreed, and I did not understand how his QR with two falls had the same PCS as his long which was almost perfect.

Joesitz (RIP) · May 22, 2006

slutskayafan21 said:
Agreed, and I did not understand how his QR with two falls had the same PCS as his long which was almost perfect.

The CoP workds in mysterious ways. It is not for us to question but just to accept.

Joe

slutskayafan21 · May 22, 2006

Joesitz said:
The CoP workds in mysterious ways. It is not for us to question but just to accept.

Joe

Perhaps, but I am too independent-minded to just accept things that seem too fishy to me.

slutskayafan21 · May 22, 2006

Tonichelle said:
I dunno... Johnny is always able to get a lot done at nationals... it will be interesting this season...

I think Evan has some stuff to work out after the last two competitions... that stupid SP needs to be looked at. Why the heck is he having so much trouble now? And the fact that it was an old program... ???? That shouldn't have happened. Sick or not, I don't know...

It would be great to have Evan win the darn thing, but I don't think Johnny's ready to give up the national title... he really fights for that one, where as he doesn't seem to always fight for Worlds... for whatever reason.

I think Evan will skate alot of clean shorts next year, unless he tries the quad in the short, then he might have mistakes on the quad combo attempts, other then that I see alot of clean shorts from him next year. I know it is strange to see him miss atleast one major element in 3 straight shorts like he did this year, but before that he was always consistent in the short program. I personaly think it was just a temporary patch, and wont continue. I dont know why he went back to his old short, he was consistent with his new short on the GP circuit.

I think Johnny's main goal is to keep his status as the top American, that is why he skates his best at Nationals more then at Worlds.

slutskayafan21 · May 22, 2006

By the way hockeyfan228, too bad about those Devils isnt it? :biggrin:

Lysacek to take over as leader of U.S mens skating over Weir fully, for good next yr.

curious

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