Will any of these U.S junior ladies have an impact on senior nationals this year?

Mathman · Oct 16, 2006

Will any of these U.S junior ladies have an impact on senior nationals this year?

We know about Caroline Zhang (she will stay in juniors this year) and Rachael Flatt (2nd in U.S. juniors last year, moving up to seniors at the national level this year).

But I was just checking out the junior grand prix results and I was struck by how many other U.S. junior ladies are poised to step into the senior ranks this year.

Ashley Wagner, 15 (4th last year in U.S. juniors)
Megan Hyatt, 16 (1st in U.S. juniors last year)
Melissa Bulanhagui, 16 (3rd)
Juliana Cannarizzo (5th)

These ladies, along with Zhang and Megan Osher (14th in her senior nationals debut last year), have delivered excellent performances in the junior grand prix series. (All but Hyatt are on track to possibly make the Jr. G.P. final.)

Does anyone have an impression about who might step up and make some noise at U.S. Nationals this year?

Or is the upper tier of Kimmie, Katy, Alissa, Bebe and Emily pretty solid for the time being?

flying camel · Oct 16, 2006

I am hoping that Juliana Cannarizzo has a break through year. She seems to be having a great season. She also seems very confident. I hope she will be the surprise skater at nationals this year.:thumbsup:

Joesitz (RIP) · Oct 16, 2006

The 5 seasoned senior ladies are probably safe for the 3 top positions. I can imagine Flatt (if she is all that what I've read about might be a spoiler) but I really haven't seen her skate yet. If Rachel Wagner skates a clean routine, I believe she would have a chance of cracking the podium. But that's just a a big IF.

Also I am presuming Sasha will not make an appearance.

The Boys to Men are more interesting because there is definitely a 3rd spot there to compete with Smith. I'd go with Steenberg if he skates clean.

The Pairs and Dance also are showing many challenges for the podium.

Last but not least, and lest we forget, it is a slippery sport.

Joe

Nigel · Oct 16, 2006

Mathman said:
We know about Caroline Zhang (she will stay in juniors this year) and Rachael Flatt (2nd in U.S. juniors last year, moving up to seniors at the national level this year).

But I was just checking out the junior grand prix results and I was struck by how many other U.S. junior ladies are poised to step into the senior ranks this year.

Ashley Wagner, 15 (4th last year in U.S. juniors)
Megan Hyatt, 16 (1st in U.S. juniors last year)
Melissa Bulanhagui, 16 (3rd)
Juliana Cannarizzo (5th)

These ladies, along with Zhang and Megan Osher (14th in her senior nationals debut last year), have delivered excellent performances in the junior grand prix series. (All but Hyatt are on track to possibly make the Jr. G.P. final.)

Does anyone have an impression about who might step up and make some noise at U.S. Nationals this year?

Or is the upper tier of Kimmie, Katy, Alissa, Bebe and Emily pretty solid for the time being?

Wagner and Zhang are the only two 2006 St Louis Jr Ladies that have stayed back at Jr this year. The other remaining Junior Ladies from last year have all moved to Senior, including 3 of the top four ladies from the podium...Megan, Rachael and Melissa. The spoilers for Sr Ladies could come from any of last year's junior ladies...as well as some of the returning Seniors like Megan Oster. We will have to wait to see who gets through their qualifying events to Natl's as well those who have byes through the JGPF to Natls. There are no guarantees because as we all know, the ice is slippery! I think you might have to look at the summer competition results as well as the JGP series to see which of these skaters has scored a good senior ladies score under the IJS...but then again, that is difficult to do as most of these ladies have been training two lengths of programs this season...a JR FS as well as a SR FS. So, we shall see!

dancindiva03 · Oct 16, 2006

I don't think that any of the above mentioned ladies will threaten for the podium this year, but I expect that they will challenge for the top 10. I don't think that any of them are, as of right now, enough of the complete package, they need a little more time and polish. Rachel Flatt, I don't think she's all that she is said to be. Her triples are consistant but the landings don't flow, and her presentation still needs a lot of work. And I mean a LOT. That does not mean that I don't think she'll get there, but I don't think that it will be this year.

That being said, if Katy Taylor doesn't work on polishing her moves and letting her programs flow better, and if BeBe doesn't figure out how to hold it together throughout the long program, then maybe one of the new girls will be able to take advantage of the open door.

Spun Silver · Oct 17, 2006

I just watched this tape of Ashley Wagner and she's terrific. She whizzes out there with such speed and abandon that she falls on her butt a couple times. But who cares - the speed is exciting and she's a delight to watch, with technique, style and confidence... and gorgeous arm movements, FWIW. She skates big. I bet she'll be a contender in seniors. When that will be, my crystal ball doesn't say.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IgycvNaIcQ

antmanb · Oct 17, 2006

Mathman said:
We know about Caroline Zhang (she will stay in juniors this year) and Rachael Flatt (2nd in U.S. juniors last year, moving up to seniors at the national level this year).

I looked Rachel Flattt up on youtube and i must say that i wasn't particularly impressed. Is she a skater that is better appreciated in person? I wouldn't have thoguht, from the performances on youtube that any of the nationals "veterans" have anythingt o worry about from her.

Ant

Joesitz (RIP) · Oct 17, 2006

Spun Silver said:
I just watched this tape of Ashley Wagner and she's terrific. She whizzes out there with such speed and abandon that she falls on her butt a couple times. But who cares - the speed is exciting and she's a delight to watch, with technique, style and confidence... and gorgeous arm movements, FWIW. She skates big. I bet she'll be a contender in seniors. When that will be, my crystal ball doesn't say.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IgycvNaIcQ

I agree Ashley Wagner (like Bebe) skates with terrific speed and abandon, but if there is a spoiler at US Nats, I think it will be her over Flatt. I saw her at MidAtlantics and was quite impressed. The 'speed and abandon' style is very risky but so thrilling to watch.

Oops. Ashley W. is in Juniors, I believe, and can not be a spoiler in seniors.

Joe

backspin · Oct 17, 2006

Incidentally, it's Megan Oster.

Mathman · Oct 17, 2006

Joesitz said:
Oops. Ashley W. is in Juniors, I believe, and can not be a spoiler in seniors.

I am a little confused about Ashley's current status right now. According to Sylvia's report on the Regionals/Sectionals thread Ashley was required to compete in the South Altlantic Regionals in juniors this weekend. But don't see her name listed either under juniors or seniors.

But she is now guaranteed to make the Junior Grand Prix Final, so that gives her a bye out of Easter Sectionals (as a junior?).

Backspin said:
Incidentally, it's Megan Oster.

I knew that.

doug_log · Oct 17, 2006

Could we at least agree, hypothetically, that Caroline Zhang would be a lock for the silver (if not gold) if she skated as a Senior at nats?

sk8addict · Oct 17, 2006

doug_log said:
Could we at least agree, hypothetically, that Caroline Zhang would be a lock for the silver (if not gold) if she skated as a Senior at nats?

:thumbsup:

euterpe · Oct 17, 2006

doug_log said:
Could we at least agree, hypothetically, that Caroline Zhang would be a lock for the silver (if not gold) if she skated as a Senior at nats?

Don't think so. Senior judges are less lenient. Caroline does have an egregious flutz, she hasn't mastered the salchow, and her ice coverage isn't as good as the top Senior ladies. Her presentation isn't well developed yet, either. Give her another year and then we will see how she stacks up.

Joesitz (RIP) · Oct 17, 2006

There are many American ladies with flutzes and they do quite well with the judges.

Joe

sk8addict · Oct 17, 2006

euterpe said:
Her presentation isn't well developed yet, either. Give her another year and then we will see how she stacks up.

Give me a break...her presentation isn't well developed? Have you seen the workd Champion? Caroline could be doing cheography for her! Caroline is a natural and has dance skills that can't be taught.

Mathman · Oct 17, 2006

Well, if we go by the points, Caroline Zhang scored 162.43 in her first junior grand prix event, then fell off to 162.42 in her second. If she keeps up the trend she should score 162.41 in the GP final (and win by 30 points).

By comparison, in last years U.S. Senior Nationals Kimmie got 171.04 and Emily scored out at 165.72.

So we can pencil Caroline in for bronze, ahead of Katy, Bebe and Alissa.

dancindiva03 · Oct 17, 2006

doug_log said:
Could we at least agree, hypothetically, that Caroline Zhang would be a lock for the silver (if not gold) if she skated as a Senior at nats?

No.

sk8addict said:
Give me a break...her presentation isn't well developed? Have you seen the workd Champion? Caroline could be doing cheography for her! Caroline is a natural and has dance skills that can't be taught.

Huh? I think she's BORING, and flexibility is not the same as having true artistry and presentation.

antmanb · Oct 18, 2006

euterpe said:
Don't think so. Senior judges are less lenient. Caroline does have an egregious flutz,.

Never sems to have been an issue for Cohen...or S Hughes (although she never won nationals)....or Lipinski....or Bobek...or....you get the idea!

Ant

antmanb · Oct 18, 2006

dancindiva03 said:
No.

Huh? I think she's BORING, and flexibility is not the same as having true artistry and presentation.

Well to each their own - i don't find her boring at all and its not at all based on her flexibility. Her posture lines and extension are exquisite. Even her cross overs are beautiful to watch and she appears to have an innate musicality...given that she's 13 i think that's the impressive thing...even if she loses her triples with puberty (and never gets the salchow) i think she'll be a beautiful skater to watch as she matures because she's natural dancer.

Ant

Eeyora · Oct 18, 2006

antmanb said:
Never sems to have been an issue for Cohen...or S Hughes (although she never won nationals)....or Lipinski....or Bobek...or....you get the idea!

Ant

I was thinking the exact same thing. Although three of those skaters never competed under COP"s the other has. I am not a jump technique expert but do any of the other current crop of senior ladies flutz?

Will any of these U.S junior ladies have an impact on senior nationals this year?

Mathman

flying camel

Joesitz (RIP)

Nigel

dancindiva03

Match Penalty

Spun Silver

antmanb

Joesitz (RIP)

backspin

Mathman

doug_log

sk8addict

euterpe

Joesitz (RIP)

sk8addict

Mathman

dancindiva03

Match Penalty

antmanb

antmanb

Eeyora

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