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Joesitz (RIP) · Oct 23, 2006

IMO, none of the Ladies have a great style except Mai and maybe that's because she understood what Lori wanted. Swan Lake is tough piece of music to skate to and she did admirably (with Lori's choreo) at Campbells. I'm looking to see if she will repeat.

Miki, too, did a remarkable job at Campbell's and I am also looking to see if she will repeat.

There are two top technical Ladies. So the third place is wide open for Meir, Hughes, and above mentioned two. The podium should be a tight race.

For the Men, I'm looking at Alban to hit a high point here and show there is more to the French than Brian. Evan is a weak horse out of the stable. He'll get more strength during the GPs. Kevin is good when he is on. Then there is Oda with his new mature style budding. The podium should also be a tight race.

I'll bet a Beaujolais that Alban hits the podium (but not win), and Mao will get the best Saki for her gold. these are just guesses.

Joe

chuckm · Oct 24, 2006

Sorry to prove you wrong, evenstar--Sokolova was 6th. Check it for yourself.

http://www.isufs.org/results/gpfra05/CAT002RS.HTM

Skye · Oct 24, 2006

Red Dog said:
Thanks for the article. The fact that it's the first competition of the season makes me wonder if it should really be taken seriously...at this point things are being worked out and programs will be tweaked in the future. A so-called "splat fest" in the making? I'll say it first: the results of this comp don't mean anything at all when making predictions for worlds or other comps.

Ladies- As for Hughes I actually have to agree with the first poster. I like her enthusiasm and her never-ending smile but I seriously doubt she can put up here. Maybe if Kimmie has (another) off night she can squeeze into 3rd or 4th, but I wouldn't count on it. Asada will be ready. And keep an eye on Ando. She could be the "spoiler" here.

Remember that back at 2005 Junior Worlds Emily with a clean free program won the bronze medal over Kimmie who had an off night. Of course they won't be judged under the same perspective like that anymore, Kimmie being held up as World Champion, and I'm putting my bets on Ando as well.

chuckm · Oct 24, 2006

inloveagain said:
Remember that back at 2005 Junior Worlds Emily with a clean free program won the bronze medal over Kimmie who had an off night. Of course they won't be judged under the same perspective like that anymore, Kimmie being held up as World Champion, and I'm putting my bets on Ando as well.

At Junior Worlds 2005, Emily landed 5 triples (3Z2T, 3T2T, 3Z, 3F, 3S) of which only one (the 3T) was clean; the other 4 received -GOE. She also doubled her loop. That was her cleanest FS, and she hasn't come close since.

Kimmie landed only 4 triples (she singled her 2nd lutz and flip) but all the triples she did land were clean.

Skye · Oct 24, 2006

chuckm said:
At Junior Worlds 2005, Emily landed 5 triples (3Z2T, 3T2T, 3Z, 3F, 3S) of which only one (the 3T) was clean; the other 4 received -GOE. She also doubled her loop. That was her cleanest FS, and she hasn't come close since.

Kimmie landed only 4 triples (she singled her 2nd lutz and flip) but all the triples she did land were clean.

That is certainly strange, because I was at that Junior Worlds and everybody (except for Team Meissner, I guess) agreed that Emily won the bronze fair and square. Emily even received a standing O from about half of the crowd while Kimmie sort of fizzled out in the latter half of her long program. I'll have to check the programs on video (I never did) but maybe the judges already had there favoritism set in mind back then :laugh:

because AFAIK their score difference was very small.

chuckm · Oct 24, 2006

Kimmie did fizzle out---she singled the last two jumps in her program. I didn't say Emily didn't rightfully win the bronze medal, just that her 'clean' program wasn't truly clean.

Emily seems to have the same kinds of problems in every FS: she overrotates her 3Z and always has to 'save' it in order to tack on the 2T; there's either a fall or a large bobble, and at least one doubled jump. She seems to put too much moxie in her jumps and that's what gets the -GOE. All that uncontrolled power wastes a lot of energy, and that's probably why she tends to double at least one jump towards the end of the program.

She just can't seem to relax and let the program flow!

Joesitz (RIP) · Oct 24, 2006

There are people in this world who tend to be hyper. It's not clear what the cause is but Emilie, imo, is of the hyper type. It affects consistency more than it does talent. JMO

Joe

chuckm · Oct 24, 2006

But consistency wins medals. Skaters need both talent and consistency to nab the titles.

R.D. · Oct 24, 2006

yes they do, and it's much more the latter than the former.

VINLUVSKWAN · Oct 24, 2006

The GS forum podium predictors make it seem like the Japanese are infallible in men's and women's singles. Sure Oda's 3 axel and technique on other jumps are "better" than Evan, but sometimes too much is too much; Oda repeats the same sit spin position 3X and lacks Evan's, Johnny's, and Jeff Buttle's artistry, edging, and intricate footwork. If he cries like a big baby again like he did at 05 NHK if he wins, I will want to break my TV. Winning on home ground is one thing, but bawling like you found the cure for cancer is another (I hope Tara is reading this). Well I'm just bitter today b/c I've been fighting a severe cold for weeks, and I've been assured it's nothing worse than the common cold.

The women...Mao and Kimmie will go 1-2, and Mai will easily kick the inconsistent Emily's chunky bee-hind, so except 2 Japanese on the podium. As much as I liked (not loved) Mao last season, at her rapid rate of technical prowess and rise in the rankings, even faster than MK's, you'd expect that her artistry would have improved. Maybe there's a reason she skated her should-have-been-feisty-and-sensual flamenco LP at Campbells like she did her "Nutcracker" LP, flirting with the judges but for the most part lacking connectivity to and understanding of her music. She maybe just trying to stylistically stretch too far too soon, but hey, although it's too early in the season to assess, Kimmie is also skating to a flamenco number and she had a far better sense of the music (unfortunately marred by those botched jumps) if you ask me. I hope the skater who wins does do so based on reputation alone, but we know it will likely come down to who can land more and more difficult jumps. And I hope the PCS will be truly deserved, but that's asking too much.

R.D. · Oct 24, 2006

inloveagain said:
Remember that back at 2005 Junior Worlds Emily with a clean free program won the bronze medal over Kimmie who had an off night. Of course they won't be judged under the same perspective like that anymore, Kimmie being held up as World Champion, and I'm putting my bets on Ando as well.

Good point. Kimmie being WORLD champion. I "hope" that this new system will discourage that tendency to "hold a skater up".

But forgetting about that for a moment, Hughes has had her own problems as well. I forgot which jump it was she keeps falling on (the flip?) and she definitely won't be much of a contender if she keeps having those issues because it seems she won't be able to catch up to Mao/Kimmie in other areas.

The odds are not in favor of Hughes. But we've been there before, now, haven't we?

chuckm · Oct 24, 2006

Mao has heen going through a growth spurt. She is suddenly a leggy teenager, not the baby ballerina we saw last season. She hasn't filled out yet, but that's coming too. I think this growth spurt may be disruptive to her skating and may make it difficult for her to focus on interpreting music or the fine points of presentation. As long as her body is in transition, she may be forced to keep her attention on the technical part of skating.

That's one of the reasons why I thought the choice of "czardas" for Mao's music was a HUGE blunder. The music is much too fast and I'm sure Mao has no idea what the music represents and how she can relate to it. With her attention diverted to completing those jumps, she is always going to be fighting to keep up with the music--and not succeeding.

chuckm · Oct 24, 2006

Red Dog said:
... Hughes has had her own problems...l. I forgot which jump it was she keeps falling on (the flip?) and she definitely won't be much of a contender if she keeps having those issues because it seems she won't be able to catch up to Mao/Kimmie in other areas.

The odds are not in favor of Hughes. But we've been there before, now, haven't we?

But the OTHER Hughes was a model of consistency, especially with her jumps. This Hughes is not.

R.D. · Oct 24, 2006

chuckm said:
But the OTHER Hughes was a model of consistency, especially with her jumps. This Hughes is not.

True as well. But one wonders if it will all suddenly come together one night. It happened for Arakawa, right?

I don't mean to suggest an upset by Hughes in this event, btw. I think such an event is very unlikely (but not impossible, of course). Mao and Kimmie clearly have the 1-ups (2-ups?) on Emily right now.

La Rhumba · Oct 24, 2006

I'm most interested in the Dance, and I hope to see a GB couple, the Kerrs, on the podium for the first time in........ages! :biggrin:

slutskayafan21 · Oct 24, 2006

chuckm said:
But the OTHER Hughes was a model of consistency, especially with her jumps. This Hughes is not.

I agree. She was also a much smoother skater, with much better basic skating skills too. She interpreted music much better, and had more advanced choreography as well.

Mathman · Oct 24, 2006

Red Dog said:
...The fact that it's the first competition of the season makes me wonder if it should really be taken seriously... I'll say it first: the results of this comp don't mean anything at all when making predictions for worlds or other comps.

I look at it a little differently. All contests are important to the contestants. No contest -- not even the world championship -- is important to anyone who is not a contestant. Do I really care that Totmianina and Marinen won a medal last February? No, but they do.

I think all the competitors will take this contest seriously. They will try to skate their best and will hope to win a prize. :rock:

Who said anything about making predictions about other events in the future?

2ndmark · Oct 24, 2006

chuckm, I agree. I think the Czardas is a weak music choice for Mao. Perhaps if it were mixed with another piece, but as it is ... it is too consistently up-tempo.

But don't get me started about music choices ... my pet peeve. (I'm not thrilled with Kimmie's choice for the LP either.)

Fozzie Bear · Oct 24, 2006

Sure Oda's 3 axel and technique on other jumps are "better" than Evan, but sometimes too much is too much; Oda repeats the same sit spin position 3X and lacks Evan's, Johnny's, and Jeff Buttle's artistry, edging, and intricate footwork.

I agree with the redundant sit spin, but I don't think Oda is any less artistic than Lysacek. His edging and footwork are not inferior to Lysacek's either.

antmanb · Oct 25, 2006

VINLUVSKWAN said:
The GS forum podium predictors make it seem like the Japanese are infallible in men's and women's singles. Sure Oda's 3 axel and technique on other jumps are "better" than Evan, but sometimes too much is too much; Oda repeats the same sit spin position 3X and lacks Evan's, Johnny's, and Jeff Buttle's artistry, edging, and intricate footwork.

Well welcome to COP...Oda may repeat the sit spin position three times in his LP. Weir repeats the same sit spin position three times in his SP. Form what i've seen Joubert and Preaubert also repeat the same sit spin in every spin in their LP and SP. the complaint i think should be aimed at COP not the skaters since the system encourage them to "get" one spin and use it over and over again to crank up the levels.

Ant

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