Was it one of the most predictable Olympics ever in Turin?

krenseby · Oct 24, 2006

Jaana said:
Yes, early in the season it felt like Irina was a sure winner, but her loss to a junior skater in GPF was reputationwise not good at all. In my opinion for the Olympics she was not such a sure winner, only a possibility. And as possibilities were Arakawa and Cohen also. As we remember these three ladies were very close after the Olympic short programme. Unfortunately Sasha was nervous in the freeskate. Shizuka was very strong and by her skate she caused that Irina had to skate well to be able to win. That put a lot pressure on Irina, and we saw the result of that...

`

I agree with Jaana's assessment. When Irina lost to Mao, it showed that she was off her game. She had her set of triple-double combinations, but when faced with an opponent who went for triple-triples, she was in no shape to up her game. That should have tipped people off to the fact that if either Sasha or Arakawa were able to intimidate Irina with triple-triples, she wouldn't have been able to kick her skating up a notch to match them.

It's true that Irina probably botched her program when she realized that Shizuka would be too hard to beat. However, even if Irina turned in a great performance like she did early on in the GP competitions, Shizuka would have still beat her with triples.

So, Irina's best potential finish at this Olympics would have been silver.

Mathman · Oct 24, 2006

krenseby said:
That should have tipped people off to the fact that if either Sasha or Arakawa were able to intimidate Irina with triple-triples, she wouldn't have been able to kick her skating up a notch to match them.

However, when the chips were down, neither Sasha or Shizuka did do -- or even attempt -- any triple-triples, and Irina skated last. Far from being intimidated, Irina could have thought, ha, they both blew it, it's in the bag for me!

Personally, I think the rigors of the long season wore her down physically, given her precarious state of health. "All" she had to do to blow the competition away was repeat her Cup of China performance, where she received 196.12 points (20 points ahead of Sasha's 176.60 and Shizuka's 173.60). Or her Cup of Russia performance where she did a 3S+3Lo+2T combination and reached 198.06 points.

Jaana · Oct 25, 2006

Mathman, I think the difference in GP vs. the Olympics was the fact that both in Cup of China and Cup of Russia Irina had an about 7 points lead after the short programme. In Olympics the three ladies were very even after the short programme. Irina HAD to produce a great skate to win Arakawa, and that puts a lot pressure for a skater. It does not matter what she did earlier, she HAS to do it now, and the nerves got her, in my opinion.

Who knows, the scenario might have been different if it had been Irina who skated after Sasha in the Olympic freeskate?

lisadotdash · Oct 25, 2006

Well, IMO Plushy's situation was that he was happily married with a kiddo, there was no one to snarl and growl at any more like he and Yags. Yes, it was a day at the office for him, but he worked his tail off for that privilege. Why didn't eastern bloc partner Irina do it as well? Heaven only knows.

R.D. · Oct 25, 2006

Jaana said:
Who knows, the scenario might have been different if it had been Irina who skated after Sasha in the Olympic freeskate?

the what-ifs will kill us until the next oly games. What if Cohen was last to skate? What if Arakawa was last? What if Irina was FIRST? What if Arakawa also fell? What if Cohen landed those first two jumps? You never know, really.

krenseby · Oct 25, 2006

Re:

Jaana said:
Mathman, I think the difference in GP vs. the Olympics was the fact that both in Cup of China and Cup of Russia Irina had an about 7 points lead after the short programme. In Olympics the three ladies were very even after the short programme. Irina HAD to produce a great skate to win Arakawa, and that puts a lot pressure for a skater. It does not matter what she did earlier, she HAS to do it now, and the nerves got her, in my opinion.

Who knows, the scenario might have been different if it had been Irina who skated after Sasha in the Olympic freeskate?

Irina should have just called Michelle on her cell phone between the short and the long and said, "Michelle, please tell me your secret for dealing with the disappointment of not leading in the short and managing to catch up in the long despite the high pressure. I need to borrow your nerves of steel and pronto!"

But Silly Irina, Michelle keeps her "nerves of steel" hidden in a secret underground bunker.

CzarinaAnya · Oct 25, 2006

Red Dog said:
the what-ifs will kill us until the next oly games. What if Cohen was last to skate? What if Arakawa was last? What if Irina was FIRST? What if Arakawa also fell? What if Cohen landed those first two jumps? You never know, really.

We need to get isolation boxes for skaters lol.

Jaana · Oct 25, 2006

krenseby said:
Irina should have just called Michelle on her cell phone between the short and the long and said, "Michelle, please tell me your secret for dealing with the disappointment of not leading in the short and managing to catch up in the long despite the high pressure. I need to borrow your nerves of steel and pronto!"

But Silly Irina, Michelle keeps her "nerves of steel" hidden in a secret underground bunker.

Well, LOL, in the Olympics Michelle´s "nerves of steel" have not been so good. Leading after short programme did not work for her in Nagano and SLC. BTW, wasn´t Irina the last to skate both in SLC and Turin? Personally I would say that in a close competition being the last to skate (after somebody´s excellent skate like Arakawa in Turin) is extremely difficult.

indicatoto101 · Oct 25, 2006

Mathman said:
However, when the chips were down, neither Sasha or Shizuka did do -- or even attempt -- any triple-triples, and Irina skated last. Far from being intimidated, Irina could have thought, ha, they both blew it, it's in the bag for me!
.

Shizuka did sort of intimdate the field. She was throwing triple-triples left and right including a 3-3-3 and the rest of the field while the rest of the filed was struggling with theirs. From the reports I've read, this is probaby why Morozo advised her to downgrade one of her 3-3's (and she downgraded the other one as she didn't feel comfortable with the first jump's landing). Are we certain that Irina saw Shiz's performance? If she was confident that the gold was hers, then she might have not payed attention to the rest of the ladies.

antmanb · Oct 25, 2006

krenseby said:
`

I agree with Jaana's assessment. When Irina lost to Mao, it showed that she was off her game. She had her set of triple-double combinations, but when faced with an opponent who went for triple-triples, she was in no shape to up her game. That should have tipped people off to the fact that if either Sasha or Arakawa were able to intimidate Irina with triple-triples, she wouldn't have been able to kick her skating up a notch to match them.

It's true that Irina probably botched her program when she realized that Shizuka would be too hard to beat. However, even if Irina turned in a great performance like she did early on in the GP competitions, Shizuka would have still beat her with triples.

So, Irina's best potential finish at this Olympics would have been silver.

But do we know what Slutskaya or Gromova do at competitions? Did she know what had already happened? Many many skaters do not want to know how anybody's skating has gone before them. Sometimes they rely on their coaches to tell them whther to go for the high risk element (if they have one planned). I forget now, did Slutskaya skate immediately after Arakawa? If she did then i guess she had no choice but to hear the marks and see the last part of her program.

Ant

Joesitz (RIP) · Oct 25, 2006

I agree, Ant, and I would say all skaters don't want to know what happened before they skate. I think the 'roar of the crowd' effects not only the judges but the competitors, too. Sensible skaters really want to skate their best, and not be influenced by the ambience of the arena.

However, would Kwan have put her 3x3Ts in her program if she skated after Tara? and then Would Irina had been better if she skated first to continue her roll after illness? Unanswerable questions!

Joe

antmanb · Oct 25, 2006

Joesitz said:
I agree, Ant, and I would say all skaters don't want to know what happened before they skate. I think the 'roar of the crowd' effects not only the judges but the competitors, too. Sensible skaters really want to skate their best, and not be influenced by the ambience of the arena.

However, would Kwan have put her 3x3Ts in her program if she skated after Tara? and then Would Irina had been better if she skated first to continue her roll after illness? Unanswerable questions!

Joe

My impression is that Skaters brefer not to know how the others have skated before them - but like you rightly point, walkman/mp3 player or not - you can't drown out roars from a crowd so there's only so much "unknown".

With regards to Kwan in Nagano - i don't think she would have attempted the 3T/3T had she skated after Tara - she had suffered a stress fracture (or was it a full on fracture) of her big toe in her picking in foot in the Olympic season and both the toe loop and salchow still caused her pain at the Olympics, hence the repeat of the loop and not the toe loop in Nagano. Jump wise she laid down her A game - the 3T/3T was never a possibloity at that stage because of the injured toe.

Ant

Joesitz (RIP) · Oct 25, 2006

There's always a one time adrenalin.

Jaana · Oct 25, 2006

antmanb said:
I forget now, did Slutskaya skate immediately after Arakawa? If she did then i guess she had no choice but to hear the marks and see the last part of her program.

Ant

This was the skating order in Turin final group:

Gedevanishvili
Cohen
Arakawa
Suguri
Meissner
Slutskaya

http://www.isufs.org/results/owg2006/SEG004.HTM

I would definetely assume that Irina must have heard some info from her coach. Otherwise a skater might try to do a way too difficult programme unnecessarily. The aim is to win.

Mathman · Oct 25, 2006

Jaana said:
This was the skating order in Turin final group:

Gedevanishvili
Cohen
Arakawa
Suguri
Meissner
Slutskaya

I would definetely assume that Irina must have heard some info from her coach. Otherwise a skater might try to do a way too difficult programme unnecessarily. The aim is to win.

It's kind of interesting that the only skater in that group to do a triple/triple was Gedevanishvili -- and she finished 13th.

antmanb · Oct 25, 2006

Jaana said:
This was the skating order in Turin final group:

Gedevanishvili
Cohen
Arakawa
Suguri
Meissner
Slutskaya

http://www.isufs.org/results/owg2006/SEG004.HTM

I would definetely assume that Irina must have heard some info from her coach. Otherwise a skater might try to do a way too difficult programme unnecessarily. The aim is to win.

I agree that Gromova must have told her what to do but not necessairly how it all panned out. Maybe that's what spooks Slutskaya? Maybe she got the same or similar advice in Torino as in SLC - play it safe, no 3/3s and the titles yours...and both times, she knew she coul dhave done it and was so close she freaked out?

I think that was why someone said she should have phoned Kwan. Kwan usually skates much better when she's not in the lead after the SP and conversely Slutskaya skates much better when she is in first after the SP.

Ant

antmanb · Oct 25, 2006

Joesitz said:
There's always a one time adrenalin.

There is indeed - remember the worlds where Yags had a ton of injections in his foot and went out and landed quads? I seem to think it was his gladiator LP. I think he still came second to Pluschenko because of needing to make up too much ground after a difficult QR and SP?

For Kwan though there would alwys have been the Carol factor...he's not one for making last minute changes to programs and insists on the skater sticking to the program and not putting in elements unless they're much more hit than miss. I'm not sure Kwan would have been rebelious enough back in 1998 to flout his advice and go for it...but we'll never know.

Ant

Mathman · Oct 25, 2006

I still think that Arakawa's victory has to be considered as something of a surprise. Usually we can get some clues from the previous world championship and other events as to who the top conteders are expected to be.

Trivia question: Before 2006, which Olympic gold medalist finished the worst in the pre-Olympic worlds?

I would have guessed Sarah Hughes (3rd). But actually, it's Kararina Witt, who came from 4th at 1983 Worlds to win at Sarajevo in 1984. (But she won the world championship four of the next five years.)

Just for fun I looked it up.

1924 Herma Plank-Szabo (1st at 1923 Worlds)
1932 Sonia Henie (1st)
1936 Sonia Henie (1st)
1948 Barbara Ann Scott (1st)
1952 Jeanette Altwegg (1st)
1960 Carol Heiss (1st)
1964 Sjoukje Dijkstra (1st)
1968 Peggy Fleming (1st)
1972 Beatrix Schuba (1st)
1976 Dorothey Hamill (2nd)
1980 Anett Poetzsch (2nd)
1984 Katarina Witt (4th)
1988 Katarina Witt (1st)
1992 Kristi Yamaguchi (1st)
1994 Oksana Baiul (1st)
2002 Sarah hughes (3rd)
2006 Shizuka Arakawa (9th)

So about predicability, if you want to predict the Olympic winner, just go with last year's world champion. You would have been right 12 out of 17 times.

Looked at in that way, was Sarah Hughes' win in 2002 really such a surprise? Number 1 and Number 2 did not skate their best, leaving the door open for number three.

But in 2006, think about it. In December Shizuka was the third best skater in Japan. Six weeks later she was the best in the world!

slutskayafan21 · Oct 25, 2006

krenseby said:
It's true that Irina probably botched her program when she realized that Shizuka would be too hard to beat. However, even if Irina turned in a great performance like she did early on in the GP competitions, Shizuka would have still beat her with triples.

I like Shizuka as well but no way do I agree Irina could not have beaten Shizuka's performance. Shizuka not only did not try a triple-triple, she even doubled one of her triples. Irina even as ragged and tenative as she was would have had to win the gold had she done all 6 of her triples clean, since Shizuka only did 5, and she easily would have made up the 10 points+ needed without the 2 major errors she had, again even with a very subpar quality performance by her standards in every single way-quality of jumps, quality of spins, quality of footwork, and quality of overall performance and skating, compared to her top notch level. Then a vintage Irina would have blown away Shizuka's winning performance that night, as nice as it was.

slutskayafan21 · Oct 25, 2006

Mathman said:
But in 2006, think about it. In December Shizuka was the third best skater in Japan. Six weeks later she was the best in the world!

Didnt Shizuka win the short program at Japanese Nationals over Suguri and Asada, then falter in the long program and drop to 3rd?

Was it one of the most predictable Olympics ever in Turin?

krenseby

Mathman

Jaana

lisadotdash

R.D.

krenseby

CzarinaAnya

Jaana

indicatoto101

antmanb

Joesitz (RIP)

antmanb

Joesitz (RIP)

Jaana

Mathman

antmanb

antmanb

Mathman

slutskayafan21

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