Cup of China Preview

Cup of China Preview

The ISU Grand Prix continues with the third of six events, held in Nanjing, Jiangsu, China from November 9 - 12. One of the strongest emerging powers in skating, China has especially excelled in the pairs event..

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I do not like the insinuation that the "margin of victory and program component scores" at Cup of China will determine whether B/A will be "fighting for gold or maintaining bronze".

What bullpucky! Since when do scores in the GP determine who wins gold at Worlds? If that were true, based on last year's NHK trophy, Denkova/Staviiski would have been WAY off the podium at Worlds. Den/Sta finished 16.5 points behind D/L at 2005 NHK, after being off the ice in the early season and missing their first GP event due to injury. But Den/Sta WON Worlds, didn't they?

Or how about the 2004 GPF: Denkova/Staviiski beat Navka/Kostomarov in a GP event. D/L beat DelShoes in the GPF. But at Worlds it was a very different story: N/K won easily, DelShoes finished 4th, Den/Sta 5th and D/L 7th.

Based on last year's GP, Kimmie Meissner shouldn't even have been in the top 10 at Worlds.

B/A are coming off a LONG summer tour and may not be 100% cranked up for this first GP, so I would not base long-term prognostications based on how many points they score at CoC. They need to be primed and ready for when it counts: Nationals and Worlds.

I think the Men are even: Sandhu, Li, Lysacek; pick your choice!

The Ladies: Liang (now or never); Sokolova, Nakano (Hughese if she's up to it.)

The Pairs: The two Chinese teams against the Siudeks? easy call but it will be interesting to see the new Canadians, British, and Vlassov and Meekins. Apparently the new Canadians have been replaced by M&B who could take the bronze.

The Dance: Easy call: B&A, D&S and the Germans.

for me, it's Bebe that makes me want to see this competition.

chuckm said:

I do not like the insinuation that the "margin of victory and program component scores" at Cup of China will determine whether B/A will be "fighting for gold or maintaining bronze".

What bullpucky! Since when do scores in the GP determine who wins gold at Worlds?

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Whew. That's quite an overreaction to a standard journalistic observation along the lines of, "here are some things to watch for as the season gets underway."

Let's just say it this way, if Belbin and Agosto post great scores that will get their season off to a fine start. If they have to struggle to the win, they will have work to do to reach top form.

The intent of the article was to promote the Cup of China, not to make predictions about Worlds.

As for me, I am enjoying the GP series a lot this year. Plenty of time to worry about Worlds.

I basicaly dont agree with any part of it:

Former world champions and two-time and reigning Olympic bronze medalists lead the way at Cup of China. Shen and Zhao, who overcame a serious injury to triumph at the Olympics with an inspired and emotional skate, are back for another season. With Olympic Champions Tatiana Totmianina and Maxim Marinin having moved on, Shen and Zhao are joint favorites to win the world title, along with both of their training mates, Dan Zhang and Hao Zhang (Olympic and World silver medalists) and Qing Pang and Jian Tong (reigning World Champions.)

All 3 teams have a shot but the Zhangs are the early favorites, so not co-favorites for the World title at this point.

Evan Lysacek is making a habit of losing competitions in the short programs – at Olympics, Worlds, and most recently Skate America, poor short programs kept him from achieving the podium position that his free skate alone might have earned.

Take out both Worlds and Skate America and you would be right. Zero indication an 80 in the short program was ever going to be there at Skate America, which is what he would have needed to win overall. At Worlds Lambiel and Joubert beat him in the long program by about 7 points each, and Lambiel was way ahead in qualifying factored scores as well. So the only event his short program errors cost him anything was the Olympics.

In the ice dance event, Olympic silver medalists Tanith Belbin and Benjamin Agosto make their Grand Prix debut in arguably the weakest field, with just one other team in the top 10 in the world. Belbin and Agosto will skate their free dance to That’s Entertainment, returning to the all-American style they showed in 2003 and 2004. Belbin and Agosto will almost certainly win, but the margin of victory and program component scores will tell the story as to whether Belbin and Agosto will spend the season fighting for gold or fighting to retain bronze.

I dont agree at all with this part. How Belbin/Agosto scorewise compare to the Canadians and Bulgarians does not reflect too much on their chances to contend for gold at Worlds. Too early to say much on that.



Other then all that the preview was excellent.

I think Sandhu will be beaten by skaters other then Lysacek. The sport is passing him by and he is too inconsistent to be near the top. I think the event being in China will mean Chengaing Li will be overscored and win a medal because he is in China or maybe he has a great skate with lots of quads to win a silver at this event. I also dont think Lysacek lost any places by short skates other then bronze at the Olympics which is a big thing to loss obviously but not at any other event.

I think Belbin Agosto could be challenged by the beautiful young Russian team in the field.

Shen and Zhou are old now and Pang and Tong are young and powerful and stylish enough to beat them.

Mathman said:

Whew. That's quite an overreaction to a standard journalistic observation along the lines of, "here are some things to watch for as the season gets underway."

Let's just say it this way, if Belbin and Agosto post great scores that will get their season off to a fine start. If they have to struggle to the win, they will have work to do to reach top form.

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Here is the section I was talking about:

"Belbin and Agosto will almost certainly win (Cup of CHina), but the margin of victory and program component scores will tell the story as to whether Belbin and Agosto will spend the season fighting for gold or fighting to retain bronze."

That was absolutely saying that how B/A did at CoC would be predictive of their later season.

I think Marcoux and Buntin have an excellent chance to make the podium. Pang and Tong lost quite a bit of training time with Pangs' illness, and she still might not be 100%. Shen and Zhou aren't kids any more, he had a severe injury last year, and they and may be easing into the season. Savchenko and Szolkowy -- who knows how well prepared they are with all the controversy and problems with their federation and in the German courts. Siudek and Siudek skated great at Skate America, but can be beaten.

In fact, pairs looks like the most interesting competition. I don't think it is at all predetermined that the Chinese teams will go 1-2.

chuckm said:

Here is the section I was talking about:

"Belbin and Agosto will almost certainly win (Cup of CHina), but the margin of victory and program component scores will tell the story as to whether Belbin and Agosto will spend the season fighting for gold or fighting to retain bronze."

That was absolutely saying that how B/A did at CoC would be predictive of their later season.

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I still think you are taking it too literally. To paraphase that quote (I see no mention of Worlds, BTW), "If Belbin and Agosto post great scores that will get their season off to a fine start. If they have to struggle to the win, they will have work to do to reach top form."

slutskayafan21 said:

Evan Lysacek is making a habit of losing competitions in the short programs – at Olympics, Worlds, and most recently Skate America, poor short programs kept him from achieving the podium position that his free skate alone might have earned.

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This seems like a fair statement. At Skate America Lysacek placed first in the long program. If he had won the short program, too, he would have won the whole thing.

As for Worlds, at least the first part of the statement is true: he basically lost his shot at the championship when he finished 8th in the SP.

Sheesh -- you guys are a tough audience!

Mathman said:

This seems like a fair statement. At Skate America Lysacek placed first in the long program. If he had won the short program, too, he would have won the whole thing.

As for Worlds, at least the first part of the statement is true: he basically lost his shot at the championship when he finished 8th in the SP.

Sheesh -- you guys are a tough audience!

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I know you were not talking to me but I cant help but respond to this. Are you trying to be comedic like I was when I started a debate on Scott Smith deserving mid 70s on PCS totals in the free skate. I hope for your sake you a trying to be comedic.

Winning the short program at Skate America was not at all realistic when Oda scored an 81 in the short program. So no it does not make sense to say if he had won the short program he would have won the event, of course that is true, but he would never have won the short program even with a clean skate, that is the point. Let me know in the future if Lysacek gets even close to a 81 in the short, especialy without a quad. Weir and Takahashi could not get close to that with their great shorts at Skate Canada, Oda's short was just a special skate with unusual high GOE scores imparticular.

At the Worlds Lysacek had no shot at the Championship with a better short program, Joubert and Lambiel scored 156s in the free skate, Lysacek was not going to go from a 149 to a 158 by just skating in the final flight, and Lambiel was also well ahead after the factored qualifying scores, and Joubert scored an 80 in the short program. His short program there ended up hurting him zippo, even more a gaurantee then Skate America in fact.

You have no half valid argument whatsoever and I am going to assume you are making comedy since I dont post her enough to know what kind of poster you are.

Mathman said:

I still think you are taking it too literally. To paraphase that quote (I see no mention of Worlds, BTW), "If Belbin and Agosto post great scores that will get their season off to a fine start. If they have to struggle to the win, they will have work to do to reach top form."

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In ice dance, perhaps more then any other event, results of GP events have meant little to Worlds success in the last 5 years.

2002-Bourne and Kraatz winning GP final over Anissina/Peizert, with Fusar-Poli /Margalio 4th below Drobiazko/Vanagas. Both the Italians and Lithunians had a fall in the OD but 2 clean free programs(at the GP final that year they started with an original dance then 2 different free programs). Then at the Europeans the Italians are up to a close 2nd, and the Lithunians down to 4th. At the Olympics the Italians win bronze even with a fall, the Lithunians with no mistakes finish only 5th. Anissina/Peizerat win the Olympics, Bourne/Kraatz who beat them at the GP final end up 4th(with fall in FD but remember Italians also had a fall in the free dance).

2003-Grushina/Goncharov win all 3 of their GP events, although they dont have to meet either Bourne/Kraatz or Lobacheva and Averbuhk the 2002 and eventual 2003 World gold and silver medalists; but they end up defeating Denkova/Stayvinski in their only meeting, and Navka/Kostomarov in their 2 GP series meeting during that streak. They miss the GP final with an injury but are beaten by both Denkova/Stavinski and Navka/Kostomarov at both the Europeans, where they come 4th, and the Worlds, where they come 5th. Denkova/Stavinski actually come only 4th at Skate Canada, below a team that will only finish 12th at the World Championships, but win bronze at the 2003 Worlds.

2004-Belbin/Agosto come 3rd at the GP final, and almost finish 2nd over Denkova/Stavinski, would have but for a small stumble in the free dance probably. Belbin/ Agosto even with that stumble d in their free dance edge out Grushina/Goncharov for the bronze. At the Worlds Denkova/Stavinski win silver and Belbin/Agosto are 5th, and are even tied for 7th after the compulsories. The Ukranians narrowly miss out on bronze to Germans but easily beat Americans for 4th.

2005-Denkova/Stavinski have a big win over Navka/Kostomarov at NHK Trophy, then gradualy go down from there, finishing a distant 3rd at the GP final, then missing Europeans, then finishing only 5th at the Worlds. Delobel and Schoenfeldner come dead last at the GP final of 6 teams, yet narrowly lose the bronze at Worlds to the Ukranians who were not at the GP final, and beat all of Denkova and Stavinski, the Israelis, and Dubreuil/Lauzon who all beat them at the GP final.

2006-Denkova/Stavinski are beaten by a whopping 14 points by Dubreuil/Lauzon in their only GP event appearance, miss the Europeans, but come a respectable 5th at the Olympics, then won the World title with Olympic Gold and Bronze medalists absent, but do beat Olympic silver medalists Belbin/Agosto, and GP final bronze medalists who crushed them at NHK Dubreuil/Lauzon.

Well that's very interesting. Here is what I think: "If Belbin and Agosto post great scores that will get their season off to a fine start. If they have to struggle to the win, they will have work to do to reach top form."

temperboy28 said:

So no it does not make sense to say if he had won the short program he would have won the event, of course that is true...

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Yes. It is.

Mathman said:

Yes. It is.

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The point he looks like he we trying to make, and I pretty much am as well though is his winning the short program was unrealistic with Oda's performance so what is the point of saying "if he had won he short program." Lysacek having a clean short program is not the equivalent of his winning the short program when Oda scored an 81+ in the short program. What if one said if Lambiel and Buttle scored 105s in the short program at the Olympics they would have the gold medal even with their multi-error free skates. I know that is another extreme but still you get the idea.

Mathman said:

Yes. It is.

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My boyfriend just told me you were a mod here. Ok now I understand it, you are standing up for the administration person on this site and it is why you are valiantly defending some of the wierd parts of the summary since the top said site administrator. Ok I understand now, sorry I did not know that before, if you were not a mod and still defending the article I would think you were a comedian.

Mathman said:

Well that's very interesting. Here is what I think: "If Belbin and Agosto post great scores that will get their season off to a fine start. If they have to struggle to the win, they will have work to do to reach top form."

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That's what YOU are saying, but that's not what the article said. The article specifically said that the margin of victory and the PCS scores they got at Cup of China would give an indication of whether B/A would be fighting for gold or to "maintain bronze" for the rest of the season. That is not what you said at all. From what you said, B/A would just need to do lots of work to get into form (meaning they COULD get into form). The article implied that if B/A DIDN'T win big at CoC, they would be in the fight of their life to make the World podium at all--no chance for gold.

I am not of the opinion that the first competition of the season sets the tone for the entire season. Navka/Kostomarov lost their first GP to Denkova/Staviiski in the 2004-2005 GP. There was a great weeping and wailing and lots of head-holding, but in the end, N/K won Worlds 2005 and Den/Sta finished off the podium.

Well I always look at GP event for scores to get an idea how it will go later in the season, dance, singles, any event. Unless the team is injured or has some obvious problem that does inhibits them compared to their competitors.

Dubreuil and Lauzon will be dissapointed that the Bulgarians at Skate America had better scores. Belbin and Agosto will want to avoid that fate and it being shown they are behind the Bulgarians right now.

It isn't legitimate to compare scores from one event to scores from another. Not only do the two events have different judges, but the random selection is different.

If scores were different by 10 points, well that would have some significance. But when the score differences for the top level skaters are less than 3 points, it doesn't prove anything.

Just look at the differences in the scores and placements between Worlds and Olympics :


196.06 37.36 60.53 98.17 2 BELBIN / AGOSTO -O
196.74 37.59 59.65 99.50 3 BELBIN / AGOSTO – W

194.28 36.44 58.34 99.50 4 DELOBEL / SCHOENFELDER - O
195.44 37.30 60.02 98.12 5 DELOBEL / SCHOENFELDER - W

189.53 37.65 55.85 96.03 5 DENKOVA / STAVIISKI - O
199.14 38.46 60.94 99.74 1 DENKOVA / STAVISKI - W

183.21 35.23 52.79 95.19 7 DROBIAZKO / VANAGAS - O
195.87 36.52 59.60 99.75 4 DROBIAZKO / VANAGAS – W

181.16 31.07 55.65 94.44 8 CHAIT / SAKHNOVSKY - O
181.29 34.77 54.59 91.93 6 CHAIT / SAKHNOVSKY - W

173.76 33.37 52.36 88.03 9 DOMNINA / SHABALIN - O
178.39 34.11 55.06 89.22 7 DOMNINA / SHABALIN - W

167.43 31.58 50.28 85.57 10 KERR / KERR - O
167.83 30.02 51.32 86.49 11 KERR / KERR – W

166.40 31.42 49.17 85.81 11 WING / LOWE - O
170.51 32.90 52.54 85.07 10 WING / LOWE - W

164.48 30.90 47.15 86.43 12 KHOKHLOVA / NOVITSKI - O
162.15 31.10 46.54 84.51 12 KHOKHLOVA / NOVITSKI - W

164.37 33.20 43.25 87.92 13 FAIELLA / SCALI - O
172.10 32.60 51.42 88.08 8 FAIELLA / SCALI - W

159.15 30.51 47.00 81.64 14 GREGORY / PETUKHOV - O
171.06 32.37 52.24 86.45 9 GREGORY / PETUKHOV - W

if scores/placements differ from event to event, then between you and me I think the very purpose of the Cop has just been defeated. :scratch:

May as well go back to 6.0