Ladies (spoiler included)

SailorGalaxia518 · Nov 27, 2006

Just want to let you know that World Champ Kimmie Meissner will not qualify

The other thing is that Mao Asada needs to win at NHK in order to qualify or she's out.

How ironic that two teenage prodigies will not qualify but two underdogs like Sebestyen and Meier who did qualify, BTW

Spun Silver · Nov 27, 2006

This is based on....?

R.D. · Nov 27, 2006

Is Kimmie out for SURE now??

Skye · Nov 27, 2006

With only 1 GP event left, Kimmie is currently in 6th place behind Joannie Rochette. Fumie Suguri (2nd at SC) Yukari Nakano (2nd at CoC) and Mao Asada (3rd at SA) have chances to join the finals. In order for Kimmie to advance, all three of the above Japanese ladies will have to place 3rd or lower at NHK Trophy. I don't believe that's going to happen.

R.D. · Nov 28, 2006

inloveagain said:
With only 1 GP event left, Kimmie is currently in 6th place behind Joannie Rochette. Fumie Suguri (2nd at SC) Yukari Nakano (2nd at CoC) and Mao Asada (3rd at SA) have chances to join the finals. In order for Kimmie to advance, all three of the above Japanese ladies will have to place 3rd or lower at NHK Trophy. I don't believe that's going to happen.

Oh, is that so. I suppose then that the thread starter is correct in stating that Kimmie won't make the GPF. And I suppose current GPF champion Asada is on the bubble herself, needing to win NHK to advance. Shouldn't be too tough for her, actually but she'll likely be under pressure in her home country, knowing the Japanese press.

debdelilah · Nov 28, 2006

I think the first tie-breaker is who got the highest placement--and this is before the actual scores are considered. So a 1-4 finish beats a 3-2, regardless of scores earned.

So, there's Miki with 1-2, Julia Sebesteyen with 1-2, Yuna with 1-3, Sara Meier with 1-4, Joannie with 1-4, and one more spot open.

If Mao wins NHK, the spot is hers. She could also make the spot with a good-scoring silver in the unlikely event that someone other than Fumie or Yukari wins.

Fumie and Yukari both have second place finishes already, and are likely to medal at NHK. If one of them finishes second to Mao's 1st, Joannie will be out of the GPF(Sara beats her on score totals), beaten by a 2-2 finish, and all the slots will be filled.

Kimmie is not definitely out, but the only way she can make it is if Mao gets bronze or lower(or silver with a very low score) and if Yukari and Fumie get bronze or lower(without high scores). Since the Japanese ladies are favored to sweep the podium, the "bronze or lower" scenario is not likely for all three of them, and if any of the three place higher, Kimmie is out.

Kimmie could still make it, but she and Kvdp have about the same chance now, with how the odds are.

R.D. · Nov 28, 2006

Oh come on. Surely no one really believes that the Japanese will not podium? Kimmie is unofficially out of the GPF.

hockeyfan228 · Nov 28, 2006

Red Dog said:
Oh come on. Surely no one really believes that the Japanese will not podium? Kimmie is unofficially out of the GPF.

I would not have thought that Sebestyen with a 4-triple performance would have beaten all of Sokolova, Nakano, and Hughes at CoC, or all of Sokolova, Korpi, Onda, and Czisny at CoR. Only one of the Japanese ladies has to slip off the podium for Rochette to make it. It's not likely given the field for two to not make it, but with the pressure to make GPF -- the Japanese Federation has, in the past, given World spots to GPF medallists -- at home, it's not impossible.

Also we're talking about Meissner making GPF of the first cut. Who knows if one of the top six will withdraw, leaving an open slot.

SailorGalaxia518 · Nov 29, 2006

hockeyfan228 said:
I would not have thought that Sebestyen with a 4-triple performance would have beaten all of Sokolova, Nakano, and Hughes at CoC, or all of Sokolova, Korpi, Onda, and Czisny at CoR. Only one of the Japanese ladies has to slip off the podium for Rochette to make it. It's not likely given the field for two to not make it, but with the pressure to make GPF -- the Japanese Federation has, in the past, given World spots to GPF medallists -- at home, it's not impossible.

Also we're talking about Meissner making GPF of the first cut. Who knows if one of the top six will withdraw, leaving an open slot.

That's true so hopefully she can compete through the process of being an alternate. Sorry, if I had worded it wrong but I be suprised if she officially qualifies

SailorGalaxia518 · Nov 29, 2006

If Mao doesn't make it, then you have Suguri and Nakano and the odds of them not being in the silver medal position is slim (Just my opinion)

Mathman · Nov 29, 2006

debdelilah said:
Kimmie could still make it, but she and Kvdp have about the same chance now, with how the odds are.

The difference being that van der Perren carries his fate in his own hands, whereas Kimmie has to wait to see what other people do.

For Kevin, it's simple -- win or go home.

My prediction: van der Perren, Li, Takahashi.

Skye · Nov 29, 2006

Mathman said:
The difference being that van der Perren carries his fate in his own hands, whereas Kimmie has to wait to see what other people do.

For Kevin, it's simple -- win or go home.

My prediction: van der Perren, Li, Takahashi.

[Apologies for drifting off-topic

]
Hey MM, where's Oda? I have a soft spot for those little boys skating against and sometimes knocking out the big guys. Dobrin made my day at TEB, and NHK dream podium for me would be Oda, Uspenski, Kozuka.

Joesitz (RIP) · Nov 30, 2006

Dobrin, as I saw it, flowed in and out of a beautiful quad salchow. Maybe this will begin a quad sal stampede. He also skated an excellent routine. Much improved over his Moscow Worlds.

Joe.

Ladies (spoiler included)

SailorGalaxia518

Spun Silver

R.D.

Skye

R.D.

debdelilah

R.D.

hockeyfan228

SailorGalaxia518

SailorGalaxia518

Mathman

Skye

Joesitz (RIP)

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