Six of the 10 Top Ladies in the Worlds at Skate Amercia

chuckm · Jun 19, 2008

saltypig said:
I think Kostner just got lucky that she did not draw Kim or Asada in any of her events and not because her federation was smart in choosing events for her so she could reach the GPF.

Kostner is not an outstanding early season skater, so she is vulnerable skating against anyone who can skate relatively clean programs.

There's also one other group that had to be considered in the draws: the 7-12 group (Meissner, Lepisto, Korpi, Liang, Sebestyen, Dytryt) each of whom is entitled to two events. That means each host must have two skaters in this group.

SA has Meissner (#7) and Dytryt (#12)
SC and TEB have Korpi (#9) and Liang (#10)
CoC has Lepisto (#8) and Sebestyen (#11)
CoR has Meissner (#7) and Sebestyen (#11)
NHK has Lepisto (#8) and Dytryt (#12)

Kypma · Jun 19, 2008

saltypig said:
I think Kostner just got lucky that she did not draw Kim or Asada in any of her events and not because her federation was smart in choosing events for her so she could reach the GPF.

Carolina Kostner was assured not to skate agains the other podium finishers from Worlds since the three are separated to have 2 events each, I believe. Same for the 4-6th place finishers; they won't skate against each other. I think the system goes by threes.

Kypma

ae9177 · Jun 19, 2008

SA definitely has the most exciting lineup in ladies field, it's more like the battle of current generation vs the next generation. Although it'll be hard for either Rachael or Mirai to make the podium, never say never, they may be able to pull a Patrick Chan, just like what he did at TEB last year.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 19, 2008

There is some excellent analyses going on in this thread. No one is talking about their personal favorite but the competition as it is laid out.

The three Junior ladies, are the most promising American 'best' for this season. I was disappointed to see two of them in the same comp.

Nagasu skates against YuNa, Flatt, and Mao.
Zhang skates against Rochette twice - once against Kostner and once Mao
Flat skates against YuNa, and Carolina and Meier - has a good chance for the Final

Except for SA the 3 Graces do not skate against each other.

Adding up the points should be a lot different than previous years. IMO, ties will be rampant.

I reiterate my 'dress rehearsal' remark. Afterwards discussing who really looks good for the Worlds without nodding to the results of this uneven competition.

Mathman · Jun 19, 2008

saltypig said:
So for SA since no US girls made the top 6, Kim and Nakano were drawn and I assume randomly since it does mention it is a draw and not selected or invited.

I think the random draw means that the Federations have a draw to decide who gets to chose first, second, third, etc. , in each category. But then the winners of the draw (the federations) do get to choose which skater they want in each of the categories.

Can anyone confirm if this right or not? Also, do they conduct a separate draw for order of choosing in each round, or once and for all?

chuckm · Jun 19, 2008

Mathman said:
I think the random draw means that the Federations have a draw to decide who gets to chose first, second, third, etc. , in each category. But then the winners of the draw (the federations) do get to choose which skater they want in each of the categories.

Can anyone confirm if this right or not? Also, do they conduct a separate draw for order of choosing in each round, or once and for all?

They draw for order of choosing in each round. To do it any other way would be unfair.

Mathman · Jun 20, 2008

dorispulaski said:
I agree with you, but I do wish that USFS would make their choices on what is best for the skaters and less on what is best for ticket sales.

Their choice has been to pack SA with as much US talent as they are allowed to.

I think USFS made the right choice. Skate America has been a prestigious international competition since 1979, long before the Grand Prix was so much as a gleam in Cinquanta’s eye. I would be disappointed if USFS would do anything less than pack it with as much talent as possible under the rules. Final, schminal.

Traditionally the point of the event was to invite the best the U.S. had to offer and let them compete against each other and against the international stars. Previous winners (before the Grand Prix and its forerunner, the ISU champions series, inaugerated in 1995) were Scott Hamilton, Brian Boitano, Joe Sabovcik, Christopher Bowman, Todd Eldredge, and Victor Petrenko.

In 1990 the ladies podium was Yamaguchi, Ito and Kwiatkowski; in 1991 it was Harding, Yamaguchi and Bonaly; in 1993 it was Baiul, Bonaly and Harding; in 1994 it was Bonaly, Kwan and Slutskaya. :clap:

In 1981 in pairs Underhill and Martini edged out Currutheres and Curruthers, and in 1989 it was Mishkutionok and Dmitriev over Yamaguchi and Galindo. :rock:

Just because the Johnnie-come-lately ISU has horned in on the act (in order to grab its share of the revenues after the Tonya-Nancy episode), that's no reason, in my opinion, to water down the field.

Just my opinion, of course.

AwesomeIce · Jun 20, 2008

Mathman said:
I think USFS made the right choice. Skate America has been a prestigious international competition since 1979, long before the Grand Prix was so much as a gleam in Cinquanta’s eye. I would be disappointed if USFS would do anything less than pack it with as much talent as possible under the rules. Final, schminal.

Traditionally the point of the event was to invite the best the U.S. had to offer and let them compete against each other and against the international stars. Previous winners (before the Grand Prix and its forerunner, the ISU champions series, inaugerated in 1995) were Scott Hamilton, Brian Boitano, Joe Sabovcik, Christopher Bowman, Todd Eldredge, and Victor Petrenko.

In 1990 the ladies podium was Yamaguchi, Ito and Kwiatkowski; in 1991 it was Harding, Yamaguchi and Bonaly; in 1993 it was Baiul, Bonaly and Harding; in 1994 it was Bonaly, Kwan and Slutskaya.

In 1981 in pairs Underhill and Martini edged out Currutheres and Curruthers, and in 1989 it was Mishkutionok and Dmitriev over Yamaguchi and Galindo.

Just because the Johnnie-come-lately ISU has horned in on the act (in order to grab its share of the revenues after the Tonya-Nancy episode), that's no reason, in my opinion, to water down the field.

Just my opinion, of course.

I agree with you 100%. I'm glad they don't water down the field just so their skaters can win. If I were running USFS, or even if I were a coach, I'd rather that the US girls go against the best skaters in the world early in the season, even if it means no trip to the final. If they don't fare well against the Yu-Na's, the Mao's, etc, then they at least know what they need to work on for Worlds, and maybe it will light a little fire under their buns. No sense in lulling them into a false sense of security by giving them easy competitors at SA and then being surprised when they get beaten convincingly at 4CC or Worlds, when the best of the best show up. Any great competitor wants to win against the best, they don't want to win because they were in a weak field. Would you want to win a title, only to have it talked down for the rest of your career because "so-and-so wasn't there"? I wouldn't. Bring on the competition and may the best (wo)man win. ANd thats all I have to say about that.

R.D. · Jun 20, 2008

Damned if they do, and damned if they don't. They (USFS) would have been criticized even if they didn't "pack" SA with their best skaters. I think SA needs to be packed, especially this year because attendance needs a badly-needed boost. Hopefully we can get some better TV coverage as well, or maybe IceNetwork can slowly improve the quality of their stream.

ChrisH · Jun 20, 2008

Red Dog said:
I think SA needs to be packed, especially this year because attendance needs a badly-needed boost. Hopefully we can get some better TV coverage as well, or maybe IceNetwork can slowly improve the quality of their stream.

Agree about inviting the best possible and boosting attendance. I thought that the camera work and audio system at Reading, Pennsylvania was good. (Zhang's 3 day performance in Reading was my favorite of the year partly because the coverage was better there.) It was a well run event, but did lack in attendance and perhaps could've been more glitzy. What are the prospects for Everett, Washington?

enlight78 · Jun 20, 2008

Personally I have gotten to the point where I don't care who wins. I just want to see lights out skating. I wouldn't mind if they all tied(except Johnny

)Really I would just like to see skaters improve and do their best. My favorite moment is knowing you just saw a personal best, and then the judges agree with you. When you see the skaters facial expression after they hear or see those marks. It is some times up there with winning. I would like to see a GPF of the most improved six skater over the season. Now that would be different fun, and a surprise.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 20, 2008

ChrisH said:
Agree about inviting the best possible and boosting attendance. I thought that the camera work and audio system at Reading, Pennsylvania was good. (Zhang's 3 day performance in Reading was my favorite of the year partly because the coverage was better there.) It was a well run event, but did lack in attendance and perhaps could've been more glitzy. What are the prospects for Everett, Washington?

They didn't invite YuNa. She came with the package. Attendance is very important for the Feds. The scheme by Cinquanta was to make money - not to care all that much about the skaters.

enlight - Good post. I agree.

vlaurend · Jun 20, 2008

Mathman said:
Mirai's mind set at Skate America should be, "Poor Yu-na Kim. She has to skate against ME!"

LOL! Actually, knowing her coaching team, I'm sure she will be encouraged to just appreciate the honor of being invited to skate in that group. And that mindset is probably the best one to have, since it will take the pressure off and allow her to enjoy her performance. Also, she had a strong first event of the season last year (JGP Lake Placid), so hopefully she'll start off strong this year, too. And she'll get to stay on her own time zone for a change! :clap:

Mathman · Jun 21, 2008

vlaurend said:
LOL! Actually, knowing her coaching team, I'm sure she will be encouraged to just appreciate the honor of being invited to skate in that group. And that mindset is probably the best one to have, since it will take the pressure off and allow her to enjoy her performance. Also, she had a strong first event of the season last year (JGP Lake Placid), so hopefully she'll start off strong this year, too. And she'll get to stay on her own time zone for a change!

There was a sweet article about Mirai in Blades on Ice this issue, emphasizing what a down-to-earth person she is in "real life." Or rather, I should say, she is the same person in real life as she is on the ice. :rock:

She attends regular high school and takes a full load of classes (except that she gets excused from physical education -- I guess the school agrees that the two hours she puts in on the ice each morning before school is enough to keep her from turning into a coach potato. :laugh:

)

In the interview Mirai mentions how her sudden success took her by storm. Two years ago she "never went anywhere," and now she gets invited all over the world, to competitons and shows

Mathman · Jun 23, 2008

Does Skate America predict the World Champion?

In men’s and ladies, it has happened 16 times that the winner of Skate America went on to win Worlds or the Olympics that year. (Eleven other times the Skate America winner had to settle for World silver.)

Men’s

1980-81 Scott Hamilton (1st at Worlds)
1982-83 Scott Hamilton (1st)
1986-87 Brian Boitano (2nd )
1988-89 Christopher Bowman (2nd)
1990-91 Viktor Petrenko (2nd)
1994-95 Todd Eldredge (2nd)
1995-96 Todd Eldredge (1st)
1996-97 Todd Eldredge (2nd)
1997-98 Todd Eldredge (2nd)
1998-99 Alexei Yagudin (1st)
1999-2000 Alexei Yagudin (1st)
2001-2002 Timothey Goebel (2nd)

Ladies

1982-83 Rosalin Sumners (1st)
1985-86 Debi Thomas (1st)
1990-91 Kristi Yamguchi (1st)
1993-94 Oksana Baiul (1st at Olympics)
1994-95 Surya Bonaly (2nd)
1995-96 Michelle Kwan (1st)
1996-97 Michelle Kwan (2nd)
1997-98 Michelle Kwan (1st Worlds, 2nd Olympics)
1998-99 Maria Butyrskaya :rock:

(1st )
1999-2000 Michelle Kwan (1st)
2000-2001 Michelle Kwan (1st)
2001-2002 Michelle Kwan (2nd at Worlds)
2002-03 Michelle Kwan (1st at 2003 Worlds :rock:

)
2003-04 Sasha Cohen (2nd)
2006-2007 Miki Ando (1st)

So there you are. Yu-na Kim will win Skate America and, therefore, is guaranteed to be the next World Champion (or at least the silver medalist). :biggrin:

Also – very good news for Weir, Lysacek and Van der Perren. :rock:

kandidy · Jun 24, 2008

Mathman said:
In men’s and ladies, it has happened 16 times that the winner of Skate America went on to win Worlds or the Olympics that year. (Eleven other times the Skate America winner had to settle for World silver.)

Men’s

1980-81 Scott Hamilton (1st at Worlds)
1982-83 Scott Hamilton (1st)
1986-87 Brian Boitano (2nd )
1988-89 Christopher Bowman (2nd)
1990-91 Viktor Petrenko (2nd)
1994-95 Todd Eldredge (2nd)
1995-96 Todd Eldredge (1st)
1996-97 Todd Eldredge (2nd)
1997-98 Todd Eldredge (2nd)
1998-99 Alexei Yagudin (1st)
1999-2000 Alexei Yagudin (1st)
2001-2002 Timothey Goebel (2nd)

Ladies

1982-83 Rosalin Sumners (1st)
1985-86 Debi Thomas (1st)
1990-91 Kristi Yamguchi (1st)
1993-94 Oksana Baiul (1st at Olympics)
1994-95 Surya Bonaly (2nd)
1995-96 Michelle Kwan (1st)
1996-97 Michelle Kwan (2nd)
1997-98 Michelle Kwan (1st Worlds, 2nd Olympics)
1998-99 Maria Butyrskaya (1st )
1999-2000 Michelle Kwan (1st)
2000-2001 Michelle Kwan (1st)
2001-2002 Michelle Kwan (2nd at Worlds)
2002-03 Michelle Kwan (1st at 2003 Worlds )
2003-04 Sasha Cohen (2nd)
2006-2007 Miki Ando (1st)

So there you are. Yu-na Kim will win Skate America and, therefore, is guaranteed to be the next World Champion (or at least the silver medalist).

Also – very good news for Weir, Lysacek and Van der Perren.

Thanks for that awesome stats!
:biggrin:

SA is the first event of the season, skaters who compete there need to settle their programs than later events, says NHK.

I did expect Nagasu and Flatt to do well in their first senior debut, but I also will be not surprised eaither if none of them made to final.

Joesitz (RIP) · Jun 24, 2008

kandidy said:
I did expect Nagasu and Flatt to do well in their first senior debut, but I also will be not surprised eaither if none of them made to final.

I presume you mean their first Sr.GP debut. They already have been at Sr.Nats.

Can we coax Mathman to dig up some statistics on how many who won the GPFinal went on to win the Worlds/Olys?

Joe

museksk8r · Jun 24, 2008

My gut prediction for the ladies at Skate America is:
1) Yu-Na Kim
2) Yukari Nakano
3) Miki Ando
4) Rachael Flatt
5) Mirai Nagasu
6) Kimmie Meissner

I would not be at all surprised though to see Rachael overtake Miki for the bronze medal since Ando's conditioning is such a question mark at the moment. As for that SA champ = World champ statistic, I'd LOVE for Yu-Na to finally claim that World gold that has eluded her due to her history of injuries. She is definitely worthy of that title given her abilities and her accomplishments.

Mathman · Jun 24, 2008

Joesitz said:
Can we coax Mathman to dig up some statistics on how many who won the GPFinal went on to win the Worlds/Olys?

I live to serve!

here is the list of Grand Prix Finals winners, together with their placement at Worlds that year.

Men

1995-96 Grand Prix Finals winner: Urmanov (Worlds – 5th)
1996-97 Stojko (1st at Worlds)
1997-98 Kulik (1st at Olympics)
1998-99 Yagudin (1st)
1999-2000 Plushenko (4th)
2000-01 Plushenko (1st)
2001-02 Yagundin (1st at Olympics, 1st at Worlds)
2002-03 Plushenko (1st)
2003-04 Sandhu :rock:

(8th at Worlds

)
2004-05 Plushenko (withdrew from Worlds with injury)
2005-06 Lambiel (1st)
2006-07 Joubert (1st)
2007-08 Lambiel (5th)

So, 8 times out of 13 the Grand Prix Finals winner went on to win Worlds.

Ladies

1995-96 Kwan (1st)
1996-97 Lipinski (1st)
1997-98 Lipinski (1st Olympics)
1998-99 Malinina (4th)

Starting with the 1999-2000 season, here is the Grand Prix podium, followed by the World podium (in parentheses.)

1999-2000 Slutskaya, Kwan, Butyrskaya (Kwan, Slutskaya, Butyrskaya)
2000-01 Slutskaya, Kwan, Hughes (Kwan, Slutskaya, Hughes)
2001-02 Slutskaya, Kwan, Hughes (Olys: Hughes, Slutskaya, Kwan; Worlds: Slutskaya, Kwan, Suguri -- Hughes did not compete.)
2002-03 Cohen, Slutskaya, Volchkova (Kwan, Sokolova, Suguri)
2003-04 Suguri, Cohen, Arakawa (Arakawa, Cohen, Kwan)
2004-05 Slutskaya, Arakawa, Rochette (Slutskaya, Cohen, Kostner)
2005-06 Asada, Slutskaya, Nakano (Olys: Arakawa, Cohen, Slutskaya)
2006-07 Kim, Asada, Meier (Ando, Asada, Kim)
2007-08 Kim, Asda, Kostner (Asada, Kostner, Kim)

Six out of the last nine seasons, at least two of the three GP finals medalists were also wolrd/Olympics medalist that year. Four times the GP Finals podium was exactly the same (in a different order) as the World podium.

(I don’t know what all this proves, except that, by and large, the best skaters are the best skaters.)

feraina · Jun 24, 2008

I am curious whether winning the SA is more predictive than another GP, say SC or TEB...

Six of the 10 Top Ladies in the Worlds at Skate Amercia

chuckm

Kypma

ae9177

Joesitz (RIP)

Mathman

chuckm

Mathman

AwesomeIce

Match Penalty

R.D.

ChrisH

enlight78

Joesitz (RIP)

vlaurend

Mathman

Mathman

kandidy

Joesitz (RIP)

museksk8r

Mathman

feraina

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