- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
I am sure it will be necessary to use the tie breaker system. We need Mathman or someone to explain the steps as simply as possible.
Ladies qualifying
- Thread starter ChrisH
- Start date
You can find the tiebreakers in this document:
http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=948
When two skaters have the same amount of points, the first tiebreaker is the higher placement in two events. A second and fourth place finish beats out two third places, for example.
If there is still a tie, then the higher amount of total points will win. That means the scores of two events will be added and whoever has more, will qualify. For example, Skater A wone one event with a score of 160, and then finished fourth with 110 in her second event for a total of 270. Skater B won with 150 in one event and then was fourth with a score of130 in the other, for an added score of 280. Skater B will qualify over skater A.
If there is still a tie, the skater or couple with the higher total FD or FS scores will qualify.
If there's still a tie, then the skater with a higher individual FD or FS score will qualify.
There's more but I don't think they've ever had to go so low.
^chuckm
Trivial means small to insignificant. Or you simply mis-read the sentence in some other way or the timing of it. As for the results of Gomel, if Melissa and Brittney bomb out, then Becky is guaranteed to qualify, but not before then.
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[ETA: I didn't see oleada's post yet.]
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Tenile Victorsen was chosen as the USA entry for Sheffield.
Trivial means small to insignificant. Or you simply mis-read the sentence in some other way or the timing of it. As for the results of Gomel, if Melissa and Brittney bomb out, then Becky is guaranteed to qualify, but not before then.
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[ETA: I didn't see oleada's post yet.]
It's the same as for the GP.
The point system and the rest of tie-breakers can be found in section 3.1 of the announcement: http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=948
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Tenile Victorsen was chosen as the USA entry for Sheffield.
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The word you should have used was "minuscule", not "trivial". "Trivial" carries the connotation of worthlessness and lack of importance.
In any case, over the past 5 years in the JGP, no skater or team with 26 points has EVER failed to make the JGPF. In Singles, in many seasons skaters have made the Final with 22 points.
In any case, over the past 5 years in the JGP, no skater or team with 26 points has EVER failed to make the JGPF. In Singles, in many seasons skaters have made the Final with 22 points.
Then you should understand that a "miniscule chance" is too high. To be even more specific, there was a non-zero mathematical chance that Becky would not make the final. The point was that Becky was not yet guaranteed a place in the final. Only 30 and 28 points automatically qualifies a singles skater for the final.
You didn't SAY "minUscule" (that is the proper spelling, not "miniscule") chance, you said "trivial chance".
In THEORY, only 30 and 28 points automatically qualifies a skater/team for the final. But in PRACTICE, it's never happened that 26 points wasn't enough. And looking at the BLR event and the two to follow, lots of points are going to fall by the wayside.
Again, you're focusing on the glass half full. I see 26 points as a ticket to the final. You see it as a chance to NOT make the final.
No chuckm, I just understand that 0.01% is neither 0% nor 50%. Hence the insurance industry. If you truly want to focus on positives, you should change your attitude towards Alissa Czisny and skaters like her. And skaters undergoing puberty ...
It is "miniscule", actually (even though it's pronounced min-uh-scule). Sorry to butt in to your very serious discussion, but I'm a spelling nerd.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/miniscule
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Thank you Oleada and ChrisH - I've copied your posts because there will be ties in JGPs as well as GPs.
It is "miniscule", actually (even though it's pronounced min-uh-scule). Sorry to butt in to your very serious discussion, but I'm a spelling nerd.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/miniscule
Sorry, feraina, but you are wrong. The PREFERRED spelling is minUscule.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/minuscule
min·us·cule (mn-skyl, m-nskyl) also min·is·cule (mn-skyl)
adj.
1. Very small; tiny. See Synonyms at small.
2. Of, relating to, or written in miniscule.
n.
1. A small cursive script developed from uncial between the seventh and ninth centuries and used in medieval manuscripts.
2. A letter written in minuscule.
3. A lowercase letter.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[French, from Latin minusculus, rather small, diminutive of minus, neuter of minor, smaller; see mei-2 in Indo-European roots.]
I was a champion speller in my grammar school days, and MINUSCULE was one of those spelling demons that I had to drum into my head. If you spelled it with two Is, you were eliminated.
We all have our preferences. Yours obviously is Caroline Zhang. I like Alissa Czisny, and I love her skating, but I've been on her bandwagon too many times and got burned. Don't understand the reference about skaters undergoing puberty. It's a stage many skaters have to go through, and the truly good ones survive it and grow beyond it.
Anyway, since Bulanhagui's 15 points, Gozeva's 13 points, and (most likely)
Murakami's and Muramoto's 11 points have been taken out of play, according to a number fiend on another skating forum, Becky Bereswill has statistically qualified for the JGPF.
The standings after 6 events:
1 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA 15 15 30 1 270.66 2 172.00 89.84 98.66 71
2 Becky BERESWILL USA 13 13 26 2 262.25 2 165.35 83.24 96.90 71
3 Stefania BERTON ITA 9 11 20 3 249.71 2 154.77 82.15 94.94 69
4 Melissa BULANHAGUI USA 15 2 17 1 235.61 2 148.95 76.89 86.66 70
5 Oksana GOZEVA RUS 3 13 16 2 260.32 2 169.83 90.40 90.49 68
6 Brittney RIZO USA 9 7 16 4 234.48 2 146.47 74.38 88.01 70
7 Yukiko FUJISAWA JPN 15 15 1 148.25 1 97.93 97.93 50.32 34
8 Haruka IMAI JPN 15 15 1 145.00 1 97.40 97.40 47.60 34
9 Amanda DOBBS USA 15 15 1 139.44 1 88.98 88.98 50.46 25
10 Angela MAXWELL USA 13 13 2 136.59 1 93.44 93.44 43.15 34
11 Alexe GILLES USA 13 13 2 136.46 1 86.55 86.55 49.91 25
12 Rumi SUIZU JPN 13 13 2 121.97 1 73.75 73.75 48.22 36
I've listed the current top 12 rather than 8 as its certain that 4 of the top 8 will be bumped out of the final.
Haruka Imai won in Gomel but won't get a 2nd assignment. It looks like the JSF ladies can't prepare themselves with only 2 weeks notice. Yukiko Fujisawa and Kanako Murakami are their updated entries for Sheffield and only Yuka Ishikawa and Ayane Nakamura are listed as possible substitutes. (I recall verifying that Haruka Imai and Kana Muramoto were previously listed as a substitutes for Sheffield, but I could be mistaken. Substitutes can't be added after the 31 day deadline but apparently can be removed.)
Meanwhile, it appears that Russia will regret that they declined one of their two slots for Sheffield, as Evgania Tarasova placed 4th in Gomel but can't get a 2nd assignment without replacing Ksenia Makarova.
With the possible exception of Evgania, it seems certain that no lady who skated in Gomel will skate in the final. Ironic that a Russian might escape the fallout.**
Melissa, Brittney, and Cecylia Witkowski have scored less than 24 points (less than 18 points actually!), so that list has been brought down to 13. Furthermore, only 10 of those 13 can score 24 or more points simultaneously. 22 points or possibly even 20 points might make into the finals.
In some previous JGPFs, the host nation was able to invite a national skater. Min-Jung Kwak or another Korean lady might be added to the final.
Possible explanations as to why 22 points are more common in the JGP compared to 24 points in the GP are:
* More competitors. The JGP has about 33 ladies per event vs. about 12 for the GP.
* The juniors are less consistent. They more often podium in one event but not the other.
* The more talented ladies are spotted too late. Thus they miss out on a 2nd event even if they podium in their 1st event. (Related: Maybe next year we can further compare the JGP rules vs. the GP rules and then discuss the different strategies the federations can use to select their skaters for each event.)
** A reference to the Chernobyl disaster.
1 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA 15 15 30 1 270.66 2 172.00 89.84 98.66 71
2 Becky BERESWILL USA 13 13 26 2 262.25 2 165.35 83.24 96.90 71
3 Stefania BERTON ITA 9 11 20 3 249.71 2 154.77 82.15 94.94 69
4 Melissa BULANHAGUI USA 15 2 17 1 235.61 2 148.95 76.89 86.66 70
5 Oksana GOZEVA RUS 3 13 16 2 260.32 2 169.83 90.40 90.49 68
6 Brittney RIZO USA 9 7 16 4 234.48 2 146.47 74.38 88.01 70
7 Yukiko FUJISAWA JPN 15 15 1 148.25 1 97.93 97.93 50.32 34
8 Haruka IMAI JPN 15 15 1 145.00 1 97.40 97.40 47.60 34
9 Amanda DOBBS USA 15 15 1 139.44 1 88.98 88.98 50.46 25
10 Angela MAXWELL USA 13 13 2 136.59 1 93.44 93.44 43.15 34
11 Alexe GILLES USA 13 13 2 136.46 1 86.55 86.55 49.91 25
12 Rumi SUIZU JPN 13 13 2 121.97 1 73.75 73.75 48.22 36
I've listed the current top 12 rather than 8 as its certain that 4 of the top 8 will be bumped out of the final.
Haruka Imai won in Gomel but won't get a 2nd assignment. It looks like the JSF ladies can't prepare themselves with only 2 weeks notice. Yukiko Fujisawa and Kanako Murakami are their updated entries for Sheffield and only Yuka Ishikawa and Ayane Nakamura are listed as possible substitutes. (I recall verifying that Haruka Imai and Kana Muramoto were previously listed as a substitutes for Sheffield, but I could be mistaken. Substitutes can't be added after the 31 day deadline but apparently can be removed.)
Meanwhile, it appears that Russia will regret that they declined one of their two slots for Sheffield, as Evgania Tarasova placed 4th in Gomel but can't get a 2nd assignment without replacing Ksenia Makarova.
With the possible exception of Evgania, it seems certain that no lady who skated in Gomel will skate in the final. Ironic that a Russian might escape the fallout.**
Melissa, Brittney, and Cecylia Witkowski have scored less than 24 points (less than 18 points actually!), so that list has been brought down to 13. Furthermore, only 10 of those 13 can score 24 or more points simultaneously. 22 points or possibly even 20 points might make into the finals.
In some previous JGPFs, the host nation was able to invite a national skater. Min-Jung Kwak or another Korean lady might be added to the final.
Possible explanations as to why 22 points are more common in the JGP compared to 24 points in the GP are:
* More competitors. The JGP has about 33 ladies per event vs. about 12 for the GP.
* The juniors are less consistent. They more often podium in one event but not the other.
* The more talented ladies are spotted too late. Thus they miss out on a 2nd event even if they podium in their 1st event. (Related: Maybe next year we can further compare the JGP rules vs. the GP rules and then discuss the different strategies the federations can use to select their skaters for each event.)
** A reference to the Chernobyl disaster.
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There's no reason to replace Makarova with Tarasova. They both have 9 points, but Makarova scored 122.89 to Tarasova's 118.09. Also, Makarova is almost 16, while Tarasova is only 13. Tarasova had Gozeva for company in Gomel, but she'd be on her own in Sheffield.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
It still seems to me that Musademba is leading with 30. Those who have already attained 15 and could tie her are Fujisawa and Dobbs. Imai has WD.
Becky Bereswill has 26. The ladies pulling up to her are:Maxwell, Gilles and Suizu.
Musademba and Bereswill are definite Finalists. High Possiblities are: Fujisawa and Dobbs for another 15, and Maxwell and Gilles and Suizu battling it out for another 15. That makes 7 most likely to be Finalists.
One more to make it from the following: Murakami; Szmiett; Hecken; Kwak. (Muramotto has WD)
That Roundup thus far (if all goes well) should be more that 22 points to hit the Finals.
Becky Bereswill has 26. The ladies pulling up to her are:Maxwell, Gilles and Suizu.
Musademba and Bereswill are definite Finalists. High Possiblities are: Fujisawa and Dobbs for another 15, and Maxwell and Gilles and Suizu battling it out for another 15. That makes 7 most likely to be Finalists.
One more to make it from the following: Murakami; Szmiett; Hecken; Kwak. (Muramotto has WD)
That Roundup thus far (if all goes well) should be more that 22 points to hit the Finals.
The standings after 7 events:
1 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA 15 15 30 1 270.66 2 172.00 89.84 98.66 71
2 Alexe GILLES USA 13 15 28 1 270.57 2 173.91 87.36 96.66 52
3 Amanda DOBBS USA 15 11 26 1 268.08 2 177.02 88.98 91.06 52
4 Becky BERESWILL USA 13 13 26 2 262.25 2 165.35 83.24 96.90 71
5 Diane SZMIETT CAN 11 13 24 2 258.04 2 160.84 82.53 97.20 62
6 Stefania BERTON ITA 9 11 20 3 249.71 2 154.77 82.15 94.94 69
7 Sarah HECKEN GER 11 7 18 3 245.79 2 155.79 83.08 90.00 63
8 Shoko ISHIKAWA JPN 9 9 18 4 261.96 2 158.35 83.45 103.61 61
I've made some guesses as to who will qualify after the 8th event:
100% Kristine Musademba
100% Alexe Gilles
100% Amanda Dobbs
100% Becky Bereswill
99% Diane Szmiett
98% Yukiko Fujisawa, 15 1 148.25 and entered in the 8th event
95% Angela Maxwell, 13 2 136.59 and entered in the 8th event
46% Kanako Murakami, 11 3 126.87 and entered in the 8th event
20% Min-Jung Kwak, 11 3 117.42 and entered in the 8th event
18% Stefania Berton
16% Ksenia Makarova, 9 4 122.89 and entered in the 8th event
5% Sandy Hoffman, 7 5 123.52 and entered in the 8th event
1% Sarah Hecken
1% Ivana Reitmayerova, 5 6 115.10 and entered in the 8th event
1% Alexandra Najarro, 4 7 119.71 and entered in the 8th event
0% Shoko Ishikawa
0% Karina Johnson, 4 7 102.16 and entered in the 8th event
0% Mae Berenice Meite, 3 8 107.50 and entered in the 8th event
With Tenile Victorsen as the biggest potential spoiler.
I hope that the favorites for Sheffield skate well so that Shoko Ishikawa and Oksana Gozeva won't have doubts as to who should be in the final.
1 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA 15 15 30 1 270.66 2 172.00 89.84 98.66 71
2 Alexe GILLES USA 13 15 28 1 270.57 2 173.91 87.36 96.66 52
3 Amanda DOBBS USA 15 11 26 1 268.08 2 177.02 88.98 91.06 52
4 Becky BERESWILL USA 13 13 26 2 262.25 2 165.35 83.24 96.90 71
5 Diane SZMIETT CAN 11 13 24 2 258.04 2 160.84 82.53 97.20 62
6 Stefania BERTON ITA 9 11 20 3 249.71 2 154.77 82.15 94.94 69
7 Sarah HECKEN GER 11 7 18 3 245.79 2 155.79 83.08 90.00 63
8 Shoko ISHIKAWA JPN 9 9 18 4 261.96 2 158.35 83.45 103.61 61
It's possible for 3 and even 4 more ladies to join Diane Szmiett at 24 points after the 8th event. If 2 or less ladies do so, the dividing line will be 22 points or less. At the moment, the line can be 24, 22, 20, 19, or 18.
I've made some guesses as to who will qualify after the 8th event:
100% Kristine Musademba
100% Alexe Gilles
100% Amanda Dobbs
100% Becky Bereswill
99% Diane Szmiett
98% Yukiko Fujisawa, 15 1 148.25 and entered in the 8th event
95% Angela Maxwell, 13 2 136.59 and entered in the 8th event
46% Kanako Murakami, 11 3 126.87 and entered in the 8th event
20% Min-Jung Kwak, 11 3 117.42 and entered in the 8th event
18% Stefania Berton
16% Ksenia Makarova, 9 4 122.89 and entered in the 8th event
5% Sandy Hoffman, 7 5 123.52 and entered in the 8th event
1% Sarah Hecken
1% Ivana Reitmayerova, 5 6 115.10 and entered in the 8th event
1% Alexandra Najarro, 4 7 119.71 and entered in the 8th event
0% Shoko Ishikawa
0% Karina Johnson, 4 7 102.16 and entered in the 8th event
0% Mae Berenice Meite, 3 8 107.50 and entered in the 8th event
With Tenile Victorsen as the biggest potential spoiler.
I hope that the favorites for Sheffield skate well so that Shoko Ishikawa and Oksana Gozeva won't have doubts as to who should be in the final.
Finalists Best score
153.84 (Jr.GBR) Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN)
149.28 (Jr.GBR) Yukiko FUJISAWA (JPN)
147.46 (Jr.GBR) Angela MAXWELL (USA)
143.02 (Jr.FRA) Kristine MUSADEMBA (USA)
139.44 (Jr.MEX) Amanda DOBBS (USA)
136.46 (Jr.MEX) Alexe GILLES (USA)
134.98 (Jr.FRA) Becky BERESWILL (USA)
131.46 (Jr.RSA) Diane SZMIETT (CAN)
Kanako MURAKAMI FS at Jr.GBR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3P-3vwJn-ro
Yukiko FUJISAWA FS at Jr.GBR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U776dwHOGd8
Angela MAXWELL FS at Jr.GBR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7K1ESKIS6E
153.84 (Jr.GBR) Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN)
149.28 (Jr.GBR) Yukiko FUJISAWA (JPN)
147.46 (Jr.GBR) Angela MAXWELL (USA)
143.02 (Jr.FRA) Kristine MUSADEMBA (USA)
139.44 (Jr.MEX) Amanda DOBBS (USA)
136.46 (Jr.MEX) Alexe GILLES (USA)
134.98 (Jr.FRA) Becky BERESWILL (USA)
131.46 (Jr.RSA) Diane SZMIETT (CAN)
Kanako MURAKAMI FS at Jr.GBR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3P-3vwJn-ro
Yukiko FUJISAWA FS at Jr.GBR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U776dwHOGd8
Angela MAXWELL FS at Jr.GBR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7K1ESKIS6E
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- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
- Country
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Coo, thanks for the video links!
And congratulations on your first post.
And congratulations on your first post.
Finals qualifiers and alternates
1 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA 15 15 30 1 270.66 2 172.00 89.84 98.66 71
2 Yukiko FUJISAWA JPN 15 13 28 1 297.53 2 196.39 98.46 101.14 65
3 Alexe GILLES USA 13 15 28 1 270.57 2 173.91 87.36 96.66 52
4 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN 11 15 26 1 280.71 2 178.61 98.32 102.10 67
5 Amanda DOBBS USA 15 11 26 1 268.08 2 177.02 88.98 91.06 52
6 Becky BERESWILL USA 13 13 26 2 262.25 2 165.35 83.24 96.90 71
7 Angela MAXWELL USA 13 11 24 2 284.05 2 189.65 96.21 94.40 65
8 Diane SZMIETT CAN 11 13 24 2 258.04 2 160.84 82.53 97.20 62
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9 Stefania BERTON ITA 9 11 20 3 249.71 2 154.77 82.15 94.94 69
10 Sarah HECKEN GER 11 7 18 3 245.79 2 155.79 83.08 90.00 63
11 Shoko ISHIKAWA JPN 9 9 18 4 261.96 2 158.35 83.45 103.61 61
Qualifiers and some non-qualifiers listed by combined scores
297.53 Yukiko FUJISAWA JPN
284.05 Angela MAXWELL USA
280.71 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN
270.66 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA
270.57 Alexe GILLES USA
268.08 Amanda DOBBS USA
262.25 Becky BERESWILL USA
261.96 Shoko ISHIKAWA JPN
260.67 Ksenia MAKAROVA RUS
260.32 Oksana GOZEVA RUS
258.04 Diane SZMIETT CAN
Including some non-finalists in Coo's list:
153.84 (Jr.GBR) Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN)
149.28 (Jr.GBR) Yukiko FUJISAWA (JPN)
147.46 (Jr.GBR) Angela MAXWELL (USA)
145.00 (Jr.BLR) Haruka IMAI (JPN)
143.02 (Jr.FRA) Kristine MUSADEMBA (USA)
142.24 (Jr.BLR) Oksana GOZEVA (RUS)
139.44 (Jr.MEX) Amanda DOBBS (USA)
137.78 (Jr.GBR) Ksenia MAKAROVA (RUS)
136.46 (Jr.MEX) Alexe GILLES (USA)
136.41 (Jr.GBR) Alexandra NAJARRO (CAN)
134.98 (Jr.FRA) Becky BERESWILL (USA)
134.90 (Jr.CZE) Stefania BERTON (ITA)
133.54 (Jr.CZE) Shoko ISHIKAWA (JPN)
131.46 (Jr.RSA) Diane SZMIETT (CAN)
I agree, though, with Diane Szmiett qualifying for the final.
What might have been had Haruka Imai been given an earlier 1st assignment is something the JSF might want to address.
1 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA 15 15 30 1 270.66 2 172.00 89.84 98.66 71
2 Yukiko FUJISAWA JPN 15 13 28 1 297.53 2 196.39 98.46 101.14 65
3 Alexe GILLES USA 13 15 28 1 270.57 2 173.91 87.36 96.66 52
4 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN 11 15 26 1 280.71 2 178.61 98.32 102.10 67
5 Amanda DOBBS USA 15 11 26 1 268.08 2 177.02 88.98 91.06 52
6 Becky BERESWILL USA 13 13 26 2 262.25 2 165.35 83.24 96.90 71
7 Angela MAXWELL USA 13 11 24 2 284.05 2 189.65 96.21 94.40 65
8 Diane SZMIETT CAN 11 13 24 2 258.04 2 160.84 82.53 97.20 62
---
9 Stefania BERTON ITA 9 11 20 3 249.71 2 154.77 82.15 94.94 69
10 Sarah HECKEN GER 11 7 18 3 245.79 2 155.79 83.08 90.00 63
11 Shoko ISHIKAWA JPN 9 9 18 4 261.96 2 158.35 83.45 103.61 61
Qualifiers and some non-qualifiers listed by combined scores
297.53 Yukiko FUJISAWA JPN
284.05 Angela MAXWELL USA
280.71 Kanako MURAKAMI JPN
270.66 Kristine MUSADEMBA USA
270.57 Alexe GILLES USA
268.08 Amanda DOBBS USA
262.25 Becky BERESWILL USA
261.96 Shoko ISHIKAWA JPN
260.67 Ksenia MAKAROVA RUS
260.32 Oksana GOZEVA RUS
258.04 Diane SZMIETT CAN
Including some non-finalists in Coo's list:
153.84 (Jr.GBR) Kanako MURAKAMI (JPN)
149.28 (Jr.GBR) Yukiko FUJISAWA (JPN)
147.46 (Jr.GBR) Angela MAXWELL (USA)
145.00 (Jr.BLR) Haruka IMAI (JPN)
143.02 (Jr.FRA) Kristine MUSADEMBA (USA)
142.24 (Jr.BLR) Oksana GOZEVA (RUS)
139.44 (Jr.MEX) Amanda DOBBS (USA)
137.78 (Jr.GBR) Ksenia MAKAROVA (RUS)
136.46 (Jr.MEX) Alexe GILLES (USA)
136.41 (Jr.GBR) Alexandra NAJARRO (CAN)
134.98 (Jr.FRA) Becky BERESWILL (USA)
134.90 (Jr.CZE) Stefania BERTON (ITA)
133.54 (Jr.CZE) Shoko ISHIKAWA (JPN)
131.46 (Jr.RSA) Diane SZMIETT (CAN)
I agree, though, with Diane Szmiett qualifying for the final.
What might have been had Haruka Imai been given an earlier 1st assignment is something the JSF might want to address.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
I guess what might have happened is an all Japan-USA final.
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Those scores mean nothing to me. I remember Sandhu who went in as a substitute one Final,, and WON!
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