Men's No. 1 spot up for grabs in 2008-09

Remembering Arakawa in 2004-2005 season and her Olympic win next season, I really think that the Worlds 2009 is not the place to shine too much, LOL... Especially for men as after Scott Hamilton´s Worlds 1983 gold medal no reigning male champion has won at the Olympics. It is the matter of pressure! On the other hand I can imagine that for an American skater it is important to win in their own Worlds, or at least to stand on the podium.

Anyway, I hope to see great skating at Worlds 2009 and it will be really interesting to watch which male skaters will be on the podium and who will be the World champion.

Jaana said:

I really think that the Worlds 2009 is not the place to shine too much, LOL... Especially for men as after Scott Hamilton´s Worlds 1983 gold medal no reigning male champion has won at the Olympics. It is the matter of pressure!

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I wouldn't read too much into that. For the most part, all it tells you is that there usually wasn't just one dominant skater at any given time. For instance: 2001 Worlds was won by Plushenko (Yagudin was injured and finished second), 2002 Olys by Yagudin. Plush was out with injury in 2005, then won in 2006. In the 1980s, the Brians generally had similar placements to one another, but neither was consistently ahead. Some skaters might not do well under pressure, but statistically it's not a large enough sample to draw conclusions from, and it's not a causal relationship, either.

Meanwhile, in 1988, 2002 and 2006 the mens' skater who Worlds two years earlier was the Olympic Champion. This is also true for the ladies' in 2006! So clearly the next Olympic Champion will be Jeffrey Buttle .

I predict a Takahashi, Joubert, and Oda/Verner podium. IMO, the chances of Evan winning next year is slim. Daisuke, Brian, Nobunari, Tomas, and Johnny all have potential to outscore him. Yes, he's consistent but I don't think he has the natural talent the above 5 have (my opinion), and he would need all 5 skaters to have a meltdown.

Does this mean you will not change your minds if you see the entire GPs?

indicatoto101 said:

I predict a Takahashi, Joubert, and Oda/Verner podium. IMO, the chances of Evan winning next year is slim. Daisuke, Brian, Nobunari, Tomas, and Johnny all have potential to outscore him. Yes, he's consistent but I don't think he has the natural talent the above 5 have (my opinion), and he would need all 5 skaters to have a meltdown.

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Potential? - Maybe. But in actual fact, as another poster pointed out somewhere, Evan has placed higher than Johnny at Worlds when they've both been there. Without taking time to look up stats on the others, I won't go there for them.

As for Evan needing all 5 to meltdown, I disagree there too. He's been steadily building and while he MAY not have the natural talent - your opinion, not mine, he sure has the work ethic and determination and has been getting steadily better and better every season. Can the others say that about themselves? I think not.

As for Oda, imo, he's still a big question mark. Yes, he's been successful so far, but IIRC, his latest win was with a score under 140, which is more at the top of the junior level than putting him back in the ranks of the senior men. That's not to say he doesn't have the "potential" to improve and most likely will during the season, it remains to be seen when he will reach that level again.

Verner is so inconsistent - brilliant one time and total implosion another, no one can tell when he'll be "on." So to put him on the podium is more risky, again imo, than putting Evan there. I've NEVER known Evan to totally blow a program as so many of the others have.

Time will tell. The winner will be the one who brings his best to the ice that day. Evan himself would be the first to admit that on any given day, realistically it could be any of them. I hope it won't be the one who makes the fewest mistakes, but rather the one who lays it all out there and has the skate of his life. Who that will be is what will make this season so much fun to watch.

Barring injury and circumstances beyond his control, I think Evan has as good a shot at the podium as anyone, better than many, and will make it back there this next Worlds. I personally wouldn't be at all surprised if it's the top spot. I'm certainly hoping it will be.

I always think that the Worlds, in the same season, right after the Olympics, is a pretty wild event. The Olympic year makes for such a stressful and lengthy season... the number of medalists who end up taking a "pass" on the event, always seems to make room for someone - sometimes from the next generation - to pop up. In ladies, I think of Yuka Sato in 1994 (5th? 6th at Olympics) when none of the medalists showed up. Kimmie in 2006! (when again, a couple medalists didn't show up).

I didn't dismiss Evan for the podium (that he has a good chance of). I was saying that it's highly improbable Evan would win next year's World Championship. I do give him credit for consistency, but when you're consistent and subpar in jums and spins to other skaters, he needs them to make mistakes for him to have a chance to move ahead.

indicatoto101 said:

I didn't dismiss Evan for the podium (that he has a good chance of). I was saying that it's highly improbable Evan would win next year's World Championship. I do give him credit for consistency, but when you're consistent and subpar in jums and spins to other skaters, he needs them to make mistakes for him to have a chance to move ahead.

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I actually think that Lysacek has good spins, I like his sitspin, don't know why, but it looks good and he has great extension while doing it. Sometimes his last spin or so in the program can be shaky - it was at last years Nationals, also at 4CC. But that might as well have something to do with power or concentration. But all in all I think his spins are really good.

The jumps though - they are sometimes just scary. He doesn't get much height and the jumps look tiny and dangerous. That's just something I don't like. I really think that his technique is not the best - and that makes it really amazing in my opinion that he often goes out there and lands most of the Triples and 30% clean Quads. And right now that's about what everyone else does - an eight Triple program with or without Quad attempt. Even Joubert and Takahashi rarely pull off something better.

And his PCS is right up there with Weir's and Verner's, sometimes if he has a good day he even closes in on Joubert and Takahashi. So I really don't think that Evan relies on the mistakes of the others any more than his rivals.

Medusa said:

I actually think that Lysacek has good spins, I like his sitspin, don't know why, but it looks good and he has great extension while doing it. Sometimes his last spin or so in the program can be shaky - it was at last years Nationals, also at 4CC. But that might as well have something to do with power or concentration. But all in all I think his spins are really good.

The jumps though - they are sometimes just scary. He doesn't get much height and the jumps look tiny and dangerous. That's just something I don't like. I really think that his technique is not the best - and that makes it really amazing in my opinion that he often goes out there and lands most of the Triples and 30% clean Quads. And right now that's about what everyone else does - an eight Triple program with or without Quad attempt. Even Joubert and Takahashi rarely pull off something better.

And his PCS is right up there with Weir's and Verner's, sometimes if he has a good day he even closes in on Joubert and Takahashi. So I really don't think that Evan relies on the mistakes of the others any more than his rivals.

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Well said! He's had many level 4s on his spins this season in both programs, and they are fast and well-centered. His sit spin stands out because he actually gets really low to the ice and his extended leg is dead on horizontaI as it should be.

Also, I'm sure he's made improvements which would neutralize the thought that he needs others to make mistakes. I think he's gotten better and won't need that - not that I think he ever did - anymore than any of the others out there. They've all outscored each other at one point or another in their careers.

I think his jumps may have been a bit "shaky" this year because he put so much energy into the difficulty of the entrances and exits that perhaps the timing was a bit off and they were rushed. I do believe he's fixed that from what I've seen of his programs AFTER working with Tarasova this summer. Notably at the Hyundai Supermatch and Mao Asada"s "The Ice." Also I saw him live at his Evening of Hope benefit. Granted those were exhibition type BUT he's seldom skimped on the difficulty in those either and his jumps looked stronger and cleaner.

With his height he's always been more of a lateral jumper than a vertical one so that perhaps makes them look "smaller" when in truth they just look different than those of shorter skaters.

All I'm saying is that I think he's got as good a shot at the top spot as any of the others. All of them have weaknesses on one element or another. I suspect they've all been working to "fix" that during the off season. Remains to be seen who pulls it together the most consistently this season. To me that's the key that will unlock that top spot.

merrybari said:

As for Evan needing all 5 to meltdown, I disagree there too. He's been steadily building and while he MAY not have the natural talent - your opinion, not mine, he sure has the work ethic and determination and has been getting steadily better and better every season. Can the others say that about themselves? I think not.

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How do you say he's been getting better every season? For me, I think his best season was 2005-2006. I know he was US champion for the next two seasons, but overall, I don't think they were as good as his 2005-2006 season. nd I think Takahashi can say that he's gotten better and better each season. Worlds aside, last season was fantastic for him.

merrybari said:

he sure has the work ethic and determination and has been getting steadily better and better every season. Can the others say that about themselves? I think not.

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merrybari said:

Also, I'm sure he's made improvements which would neutralize the thought that he needs others to make mistakes. I think he's gotten better and won't need that - not that I think he ever did - anymore than any of the others out there. They've all outscored each other at one point or another in their careers.

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Like mycelticblessing, I'm not seeing it either. Takahashi has definitely improved in his skating, though he's had consistency issues on occasion. Still, he's the better skater on the whole. Joubert has made very big strides with the presentation, has been more consistent than Evan, and he's probably got the most consistent quad of the top guys. Johnny Weir has gotten better at tailoring his programs to the judging system (unhappy as this might make him). Voronov is also on the way up. So on the whole, even if Evan has made improvements, he's hardly the only one.

As for each of them outscoring the others on occasion, that just goes to show that the top guys make mistakes on occasion. But that's the whole point: Evan needs others to make mistakes because despite the talent and hard work, he's not quite at the top of the field. This might change, but based on what we've seen from him so far, that's how I'd describe it.

Buttercup said:

Evan needs others to make mistakes because despite the talent and hard work, he's not quite at the top of the field.

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Well, so does Weir.... Without some other skaters making surprising mistakes, Weir would not have gotten his bronze at 2008 Worlds. Besides, after his brilliant short programme he dropped in the freeskate again being only 5th.

Jaana said:

Well, so does Weir.... Without some other skaters making surprising mistakes, Weir would not have gotten his bronze at 2008 Worlds.

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Jaana, I never suggested otherwise. In fact, I've written on this thread that I consider Johnny and Evan to be part of a group of skaters who are in the mix but who need some help to win the major events - that help being mistakes from the two people who I do consider the top current skaters, Daisuke Takahashi and Brian Joubert. Mush as I like Johnny Weir, the only reason he was on the podium at Worlds was Dai's not realizing he couldn't do another combination in the LP.

Of course, Evan Lysacek's first medal at Worlds didn't really come on a great night of figure skating. And there are surprises - so who knows? The days of Plushenko winning everything are most likely behind us.

I am going to say that Joubert, Weir, Lysachek and Takahashi are going to be battling it out this year.

The main thing I like about Men's skating is the athletic componant that is sometimes missing in Ladies so it will be interesting for me to see what Joubert pulls off heading into the 2010 olympic cycle. My only concern for him has more to do with the lack of competition in the men's field. (just cause the field is deep, doesn't mean its all at the same level...)

I'm not sure if he's wired to succeed when he's not proving to the world just how much better than another skater he is - when he has to make the judges give him the title because he's proven that his form of skating is better than all the artistic skaters swooning around on the ice...

In my opinion, the only other skater that can really challenge him is Takahashi who is just simply cool to watch - regardless of the competition.

Weir (who I love) and Evan (who I still don't get) simply aren't in the same league with the other two. But that's just my opinion and taste. And that's the beauty of figure skating - the diversity of talent, regardless of nationality. Each skater brings a different point of view and the fans can take their pick based on their personal preference. In football (or futball) there's really only one way to score points - cross the line.

Yay! The new season has finally begun! Here's wishing good luck & great luck to all the skaters - as long as they don't beat my favorites!

I also get excited when the Men take to the Warm-Up. It's as close to a sport as one can get in a figure skating meet. (JMO). When the Ladies take the Warm up, I think about the battling spirals and bielmans. to come soon Pairs can be exciting because of the acrobatics - not unlike Gymnastics (except for a couple). I would appreciate Skate Dance more, if they wore simple costumes so I can look at the ladie's legs working with the male partner.

After I see all the GPs, Euros and 4CC, I will pick out the podium in LA.

Joesitz said:

I also get excited when the Men take to the Warm-Up. It's as close to a sport as one can get in a figure skating meet. (JMO). When the Ladies take the Warm up, I think about the battling spirals and bielmans. to come soon Pairs can be exciting because of the acrobatics - not unlike Gymnastics (except for a couple). I would appreciate Skate Dance more, if they wore simple costumes so I can look at the ladie's legs working with the male partner.

After I see all the GPs, Euros and 4CC, I will pick out the podium in LA.

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What? Wait until the season actually starts before picking the podium? Oh Joe, you're always so mature!!

Kwanford Wife said:

What? Wait until the season actually starts before picking the podium? Oh Joe, you're always so mature!!

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Yes. Most of those predictions are based on what they got from last season, and I like to give the skaters another chance for this season.

If I were to predict for Worlds now based on what I saw from last year it would be: Mao, Joubert, S&S, D&S but I think that can change by the end of Euros and 4CC. (Wow, I do not have one American in the Gold Mix):sheesh:

It's Dai's for the taking!

Kwanford Wife said:

In my opinion, the only other skater that can really challenge him is Takahashi who is just simply cool to watch - regardless of the competition.

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That basically sums up why I love Dai so much - NEVER get tired of watching him skate, because his routines are just so interesting and he puts everything he has into them. Dai is always looking to change, grow, improve, try new things. And mostly, this attitude has paid off in spades, this year's World's notwithstanding.

The only thing Dai lacks is the world-conquering confidence of skaters like Plushenko; his break with Morozov earlier this year, I think, is a step in the right direction in developing that confidence, becoming the skater Daisuke himself wants to be. Once he has that, I think he is far and away the leading men's skater - and even now, I still think he is the top contender, because his artistry, presentation and never-say-die approach are just streets ahead of anyone else. His new SP is so exciting and sexy it gives me goosebumps.

Oh, BTW, not EVERYONE likes Johnny. I find his routines comparatively dull. But that's just my opinion, skating is an artistic sport and therefore entirely subjective.