1. 0

## The potential best programs for GPF ladies

I have been curious about what the score would be when a skater do his/her best. So I reconstructed GPF ladies program using their best scores from 07-08 and 08-09 season. I used the data from only two season because two years is enough time to change skater's ability and rules such as edge calls have been changed.

1.Yu-Na Kim SP
3F+3T 9.50 + 2.00 = 11.50 (07 CoC FS) (07 CoR FS) (07 GPF FS)
3Lz 6.00 + 1.80 = 7.80 (07 GPF SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 2.00 = 5.40 (08 CoC FS)
2A 3.50 + 1.60 = 5.10 (08 CoC FS)
LSp4 2.70 + 0.90 = 3.60 (07 CoR SP) (07 GPF SP)
FSSp4 3.0 + 0.50 = 3.50 (07 CoR FS) (07 GPF SP) (07 GPF FS) (08 WC FS) (08 CoC SP)
SlSt3 3.3 + 0.80 = 4.10 (08 SA SP)
CCoSp4 3.5 + 0.80 = 4.30 (07 GPF SP)
TES: 45.30

Yu-Na Kim FS
3F+3T 9.50 + 2.00 = 11.50 (07 CoC FS) (07 CoR FS) (07 GPF FS)
3Lo 5.00 + 0.80 = 5.80 (07 CoC FS)
3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.80 + 1.00 = 9.80 (07 CoC FS)
FSSp4 3.0 + 0.50 = 3.50 (07 CoR FS) (07 GPF SP) (07 GPF FS) (08 WC FS) (08 CoC SP)
2A+3T 8.25x + 1.60 = 9.85 (07 GPF FS)
3Lz 6.6x + 1.20 = 7.80 (06 SC FS) (07 GPF FS)
SpSq4 3.40 + 2.00 = 5.40 (08 CoC FS)
3S 4.95x + 0.80 = 5.75 (07 CoC FS)
FCoSp4 3.0 + 0.30 = 3.30 (08 CoC FS)
SlSt3 3.3 + 0.80 = 4.10 (08 SA SP)
2A 3.85x + 1.40 = 5.25 (07 GPF FS)
CCoSp4 3.5 + 0.80 = 4.30 (07 GPF SP)
TES: 76.35

2. Joannie Rochette SP
2A 3.50 + 2.00 = 5.50 (08 SC SP)
3F+2T 6.80 + 0.29 = 7.09 (08 WC SP)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.43 = 3.43 (08 4CC SP)
3Lz 6.00 + 1.60 = 7.60 (08 SC FS)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.43 = 3.93 (08 4CC SP)
SlSt3 3.30 + 0.90 = 4.20 (08 SC SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.40 = 4.80 (08 TEB SP) (08 TEB FS)
LSp3 2.40 + 0.50 = 2.90 (08 SC SP)
TES: 39.45

Joannie Rochette FS
3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.80 + 1.20 = 10.00 (07 CoR FS)
3F 5.50 + 1.60 = 7.10 (08 SC FS)
3Lo 5.00 + 1.20 = 6.20 (08 SC FS)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.43 = 3.43 (08 4CC SP)
CUSp4 2.90 + 0.14 = 3.04 (08 WC FS)
3Lz 6.6x + 1.60 = 8.20 (08 SC FS)
3T+3S+SEQ 7.48x + 1.20 = 8.68 (08 TEB FS)
SlSt3 3.30 + 0.90 = 4.20 (08 SC SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.40 = 4.80 (08 TEB SP) (08 TEB FS)
2A+2A+SEQ 6.16x - 0.80 = 5.36 (08 4CC FS)
3S 4.95x + 1.29 = 6.24 (08 4CC FS)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.43 = 3.93 (08 4CC SP)
TES: 71.18

3F+3Lo 10.50 + 1.57 = 12.07 (08 WC SP)
3Lz 6.00 + 0.60 = 6.60 (08 NHK SP)
SpSq4 3.4 + 1.80 = 5.20 (07 SC SP)
FSSp4 3.0 + 0.60 = 3.60 (07 SC FS)
2A 3.5 + 2.00 = 5.50 (08 TEB SP)
CiSt3 3.3 + 0.80 = 4.10 (08 TEB SP)
CCoSp4 3.5 + 0.80 = 4.30 (08 TEB SP)
LSp3 2.4 + 0.90 = 3.30 (07 TEB SP) (08 TEB SP)
TES: 44.67

3A 8.20 + 1.86 = 10.06 (08 4CC FS)
3A<+2T 4.80 - 0.80 = 4.00 (08 NHK FS)
3F+3T 9.50 + 1.43 = 10.93 (08 WC FS)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.60 = 3.60 (07 SC FS)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.80 = 5.20 (07 SC SP)
3S 4.95x + 0.80 = 5.75 (08 NHK FS)
3F+3Lo 11.55x + 1.20 = 12.75 (07 GPF FS)
3Lz* 6.6x + 0.00 = 6.60 (08 NHK SP)
2A 3.85x + 1.57 = 5.42 (07 WC FS)
FCCoSp4 3.5 + 0.50 = 4.00 (08 WC FS)
SlSt3 3.3 + 1.00 = 4.30 (08 NHK FS)
CCoSp4 3.5 + 0.80 = 4.30 (08 TEB SP)
TES: 76.91

Mao has never landed 3Lz in the second half in 07-08 and 08-09 season. I give the base value for the 3Lz.

4. Carolina Kostner SP
3F+3T 9.50 + 1.80 = 11.30 (08 CoR FS)
3Lz 6.00 + 0.80 = 6.80 (07 GPF SP)
LSp3 2.40 + 0.30 = 2.70 (08 CoR SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.43 = 4.83 (08 WC SP)
2A 3.50 + 1.00 = 4.50 (08 WC SP)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.30 = 3.30 (08 CoR SP)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.57 = 4.07 (08 WC FS)
SlSt4 3.90 + 1.00 = 4.90 (07 NHK FS)
SlSt3* 3.30 + 0.80 = 4.10 (08 CoR SP)
TES: 42.4

Carolina Kostner FS
3F+3T 9.50 + 1.80 = 11.30 (08 CoR FS)
3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.80 - 0.40 = 8.40 (08 CoR FS)
3F 5.50 + 1.00 = 6.50 (08 CoR FS)
3Lo 5.00 + 1.00 = 6.00 (07 GPF FS)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.57 = 4.07 (08 WC FS)
2A+3T 8.25x + 0.80 = 9.05 (07 GPF FS)
3S 4.95x + 0.80 = 5.75 (07 NHK FS)
CSSp3 2.60 - 0.06 = 2.54 (08 CoR FS)
SlSt4 3.90 + 1.00 = 4.90 (07 NHK FS)
SlSt3* 3.30 + 0.80 = 4.10 (08 CoR SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.43 = 4.83 (08 WC SP)
2A 3.85x + 0.00 = 3.85 (08 SC FS)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.30 = 3.30 (08 CoR SP)
TES: 70.49

If you think that level 4 step sequence is so exceptional, you can use the second best score 4.1 for SlSt.

5. Yukari Nakano SP
3F+2T 6.80 + 0.29 = 7.09 (08 WC SP)
3Lz 6.00 + 0.43 = 6.43 (08 WC FS)
LSp4 2.70 + 0.50 = 3.20 (08 NHK SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.20 = 4.60 (08 NHK FS)
2A 3.50 + 1.20 = 4.70 (07 SC SP)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.90 = 4.40 (07 SC SP)
CiSt3 3.30 + 0.50 = 3.80 (08 NHK SP)
FCSp4 3.20 + 1.00 = 4.20 (07 SC SP) (07 SC FS)
TES: 38.42

Yukari Nakano FS
3A 8.20 + 0.00 = 8.20 (07 CoR FS)
3F+2T 6.80 + 0.29 = 7.09 (08 WC SP)
3S+2T 5.80 + 0.60 = 6.40 (08 NHK FS)
2A 3.50 + 1.20 = 4.70 (07 SC SP)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.90 = 4.40 (07 SC SP)
3Lz 6.00 + 0.43 = 6.43 (08 WC FS)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.20 = 4.60 (08 NHK FS)
3F 6.05x + 0.00 = 6.05 (07 CoR FS) (08 SA FS)
FCoSp4 3.0 + 0.50 = 3.50 (08 NHK FS)
SlSt3 3.30 + 0.40 = 3.70 (08 NHK FS)
3T+2T+2Lo 7.48x + 0.80 = 8.28 (08 SA FS)
FCSp4 3.20 + 1.00 = 4.20 (07 SC SP) (07 SC FS)
TES: 67.55

6. Miki Ando's SP
3Lz+3Lo 11.00 + 0.80 = 11.80 (08 CoC SP)
3F 5.50 + 0.43 = 5.93 (08 4CC FS)
2A 3.50 + 1.00 = 4.50 (08 SA SP) (07 NHK SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.00 = 4.40 (08 SA SP) (08 4CC SP) (08 4CC FS) (07 NHK FS) (07 SA FS)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.36 = 3.36 (08 4CC SP)
SlSt3 3.30 + 0.70 = 4.00 (08 CoC FS)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.90 = 4.40 (08 SA SP)
LSp2 1.90 + 0.40 = 2.30 (08 CoC SP)
TES: 40.69

Miki Ando's FS
3T+3Lo< 5.50 - 1.00 = 4.50 (08 CoC FS)
3S 4.50 + 1.00 = 5.50 (08 CoC FS)
3F 5.50 + 0.43 = 5.93 (08 4CC FS)
CCSp4 3.20 - 0.18 = 3.02 (08 CoC FS)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.00 = 4.40 (08 SA SP) (08 4CC SP) (08 4CC FS) (07 NHK FS) (07 SA FS)
3Lz+2Lo 8.25x + 0.40 = 8.65 (08 SA FS)
3Lz 6.60x + 0.43 = 7.03 (08 4CC FS)
3Lo 5.50x + 1.00 = 6.50 (08 4CC FS)
2A+2Lo+2Lo 7.15x + 0.40 = 7.55 (08 SA FS)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.90 = 4.40 (08 SA SP)
SlSt3 3.30 + 0.70 = 4.00 (08 CoC FS)
FCCoSp4 3.50 + 0.50 = 4.00 (08 CoC FS)
TES: 65.48

If 3T+3Lo is ratified, the TES will be increased by 5 points.

The total TES scores are
1. Yu-Na Kim 45.3+76.35 = 121.65
2. Mao Asada 44.67+76.91 = 121.58
3. Carolina Kostner 42.4 + 70.49 = 112.89
4. Joannie Rochette 39.45 + 71.18 = 110.63
5. Miki Ando 40.69 + 65.48 = 106.17
6. Yukari Nakano 38.42 + 67.55 = 105.97

If Mao's second 3A is ratified, Mao's potential best score will be increased by 5.5 points. This means that Mao has a room for one downgrade. Mao is trying five difficult attempts, i.e., two triple axels and three 3-3's. If one of them is downgraded, Yu-Na and Mao would have the practically same potential best scores.

On the other hand, both Yu-Na and Mao have never done back-to-back clean performances for SP and FS in two years. They have always made some major mistakes. If Joannie, Carolina, or Miki with 3T+3Lo does clean and good performances close to their potential best, they would have a chance to upset. (They would need two major mistakes from Yu-Na or Mao).

2. 0
You and Mathman are going to get along like houses on fire.

Very impressive!

3. 0
I don't believe YuNa's lip combo gets +2 GOE again. It was only 1.2 and 1.0 at SA (without edge calls). Now everyone is watching her takeoff edges. Even if the specialist is lenient enough, the judges won't be that generous. In terms of "possiblity", I believe Mao's two fully rotated 3A's are more likely than YuNa's 3Lo.

4. 0
I really would like crazy skaters'fans refrain from bashing other skaters in EVERY thread post whether it is related to the jumping technic or not.

By the way, you did great job Athlet.

5. 0
Great post! I think it's possible that Mao might try to up the level of her layback spin in her SP to a 4.... and I do believe her step sequence in the LP COULD be ratified a 4 as well, but no solid evidence to go by on that yet.

I thought I would contribute a bit to what you put and add the best program components for each lady.

(The best score in an individual component of the PCS is italicized in both SP and FS)

Miki ANDO

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.30 (SA 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.85 (SA 2008)
Performance / Execution : 6.95 (SA 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.30 (SA 2008)
Interpretation : 7.25 (SA 2008)
TOTAL: 28.52

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 7.15 (CoC 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.65 (CoC 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.05 (CoC 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.25 (CoC 2008)
Interpretation : 7.15 (CoC 2008)
TOTAL: 56.40

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.75 (NHK 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 7.15 (NHK 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.65 (NHK 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.60 (NHK 2008)
Interpretation : 7.65 (NHK 2008)
TOTAL: 30.24

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 8.00 (NHK 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 7.25 (NHK 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.85 (NHK 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.85 (NHK 2008)
Interpretation : 7.95 (NHK 2008)
TOTAL: 62.24

Yu-Na KIM

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.70 (SA 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 7.20 (SA 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.70 (SA 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.75 (SA 2008)
Interpretation : 7.70 (SA 2008)
TOTAL: 30.44

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 7.75 (CoC 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 7.30 (CoC 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.90 (CoC 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.80 (CoC 2008)
Interpretation : 7.80 (CoC 2008)
TOTAL: 61.68

Carolina KOSTNER

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.35 (CoR 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.40 (CoR 2008)
Performance / Execution : 6.90 (CoR 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 6.95 (CoR 2008)
Interpretation : 7.05 (CoR 2008)
TOTAL: 27.72

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 7.60 (CoR 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.95 (CoR 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.15 (CoR 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.30 (CoR 2008)
Interpretation : 7.55 (CoR 2008)
TOTAL: 58.48

Yukari NAKANO

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.20 (SA 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.80 (SA 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.15 (SA 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.00 (NHK 2008)
Interpretation : 7.15 (SA 2008)
TOTAL: 28.24

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 7.30 (SA 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.55 (SA 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.25 (SA 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.15 (SA 2008)
Interpretation : 7.15 (SA 2008)
TOTAL: 56.64

Joannie ROCHETTE

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.15 (SC 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.75 (TEB 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.10 (SC 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.05 (TEB 2008)
Interpretation : 7.15 (TEB 2008)
TOTAL: 28.16

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 7.55 (TEB 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 7.25 (TEB 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.75 (SC 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.75 (TEB 2008)
Interpretation : 7.65 (SC 2008)
TOTAL: 60.72

Rankings

SHORT PROGRAM

1. Yu-Na KIM - 30.44
3. Miki ANDO - 28.52
4. Yukari NAKANO - 28.24
5. Joannie Rochette - 28.16
6. Carolina Kostner - 27.72

Best Individual Components
Skating Skills : Mao ASADA - 7.75
Transition / Linking Footwork : Yu-Na KIM - 7.20
Performance / Execution : Yu-Na KIM - 7.70
Choreography / Comoposition : Yu-Na KIM - 7.75
Interpretation : Yu-Na KIM - 7.70

FREE SKATE
2. Yu-Na KIM - 61.68
3. Joannie ROCHETTE - 60.72
4. Caroline KOSTNER - 58.48
5. Yukari NAKANO - 56.64
6. Miki ANDO - 56.40

Best Individual Components
Skating Skills : Mao ASADA - 8.00
Transition / Linking Footwork : Yu-Na KIM - 7.30
Performance / Execution : Yu-Na KIM - 7.90
Choreography / Comoposition : Mao ASADA - 7.85
Interpretation : Mao ASADA - 7.95

TOTAL BEST PCS (SP + FS)

2. Yu-Na KIM - 92.12
3. Joannie ROCHETTE - 88.88
4. Carolina KOSTNER - 86.20
5. Miki ANDO - 84.92
6. Yukari NAKANO - 84.88

6. 0
Sorry for Double Post...

from athlet's post (thank you!)

total best TES scores
1. Yu-Na Kim 45.3+76.35 = 121.65
2. Mao Asada 44.67+76.91 = 121.58
3. Carolina Kostner 42.4 + 70.49 = 112.89
4. Joannie Rochette 39.45 + 71.18 = 110.63
5. Miki Ando 40.69 + 65.48 = 106.17
6. Yukari Nakano 38.42 + 67.55 = 105.97

from my other post....

total best PCS scores

2. Yu-Na KIM - 92.12
3. Joannie ROCHETTE - 88.88
4. Carolina KOSTNER - 86.20
5. Miki ANDO - 84.92
6. Yukari NAKANO - 84.88

Total combined scores (best PCS and TES achieved by each skater this season)...

2. Yu-Na KIM - 213.77
3. Joannie ROCHETTE - 199.51
4. Carolina KOSTNER - 199.09
5. Miki ANDO - 191.09
6. Yukari NAKANO - 190.85

It's funny how the list is almost coupled into 3 groups, Mao and Yu-Na (only .29 apart).... then about 14 points down there is Joannie and Carolina (only .42 apart).... then about 8 points down from there is Miki and Yukari (only .24 apart). It's like each skater could potentially have a direct competitor right at their same level.

7. 0
Wow, thank you. That is a great job, I liked it

8. 0
How I love this thread despite that I did hate mathmatics!

9. 0
Yu-na is capable of posting such huge numbers that Mao could land both axels clean and make no other mistakes and still lose to yu-na.

10. 0
Yu-na is capable of posting such huge numbers that Mao could land both axels clean and make no other mistakes and still lose to yu-na.
I don't really see that, but that's just me.

11. 0
Originally Posted by Tinymavy15
Yu-na is capable of posting such huge numbers that Mao could land both axels clean and make no other mistakes and still lose to yu-na.
I can see you belong to the realm of religion, not mathematics and sports. I'd like to see how YuNa Kim can score 215 points with her three 2A's programs. I'll forget about the fact that she has never skated clean in past three years.

12. 0
Well we just will have to wait and see who does better. I just hope that if Mao Asada does land two triple axels, that it doesn't wear her down and she starts making mistakes during the rest of her programs

13. 0
Mao skated "apparently clean except the 3A" at all four competitions after last year's GPF. I think we can expect (nearly) same for this season. Considering the improved consistency of her 3A, skating "apparently clean including two 3A's" is within realistic expectations. Mao's current programs can score 200+ points even with two downgradings. To cope with her, other skaters must skate absolutely clean. A very tall order indeed, isn't it?

14. 0
Originally Posted by propronia
Mao skated "apparently clean except the 3A" at all four competitions after last year's GPF. I think we can expect (nearly) same for this season. Considering the improved consistency of her 3A, skating "apparently clean including two 3A's" is within realistic expectations. Mao's current programs can score 200+ points even with two downgradings. To cope with her, other skaters must skate absolutely clean. A very tall order indeed, isn't it?
but Mao is also very inconsistant. Plus, her 3/3s are not there anymore. I have a feeling that, while Mao and Yuna are getting so much attention and they put too much pressure on themselves and fall apart, and Joannie Rochette skates clean and takes the gold.

15. 0
Originally Posted by ks777
but Mao is also very inconsistant. Plus, her 3/3s are not there anymore. I have a feeling that, while Mao and Yuna are getting so much attention and they put too much pressure on themselves and fall apart, and Joannie Rochette skates clean and takes the gold.
I'm safely counting out Rochette this time. Her "potential" is too low and consistency is not there. She never skated with less than three errors in past three years. The past record shows YuNa and Mao are undoubtedly more consistent than her. And don't you know Rochette never landed the 2A-2A sequence (which many novice and junior skaters use as the easy point getter) cleanly? I must say her jumping ability is poor. I expect Ando and/or Kostner on the podium.

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