The potential best programs for GPF ladies

I have been curious about what the score would be when a skater do his/her best. So I reconstructed GPF ladies program using their best scores from 07-08 and 08-09 season. I used the data from only two season because two years is enough time to change skater's ability and rules such as edge calls have been changed.


1.Yu-Na Kim SP
3F+3T 9.50 + 2.00 = 11.50 (07 CoC FS) (07 CoR FS) (07 GPF FS)
3Lz 6.00 + 1.80 = 7.80 (07 GPF SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 2.00 = 5.40 (08 CoC FS)
2A 3.50 + 1.60 = 5.10 (08 CoC FS)
LSp4 2.70 + 0.90 = 3.60 (07 CoR SP) (07 GPF SP)
FSSp4 3.0 + 0.50 = 3.50 (07 CoR FS) (07 GPF SP) (07 GPF FS) (08 WC FS) (08 CoC SP)
SlSt3 3.3 + 0.80 = 4.10 (08 SA SP)
CCoSp4 3.5 + 0.80 = 4.30 (07 GPF SP)
TES: 45.30

Yu-Na Kim FS
3F+3T 9.50 + 2.00 = 11.50 (07 CoC FS) (07 CoR FS) (07 GPF FS)
3Lo 5.00 + 0.80 = 5.80 (07 CoC FS)
3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.80 + 1.00 = 9.80 (07 CoC FS)
FSSp4 3.0 + 0.50 = 3.50 (07 CoR FS) (07 GPF SP) (07 GPF FS) (08 WC FS) (08 CoC SP)
2A+3T 8.25x + 1.60 = 9.85 (07 GPF FS)
3Lz 6.6x + 1.20 = 7.80 (06 SC FS) (07 GPF FS)
SpSq4 3.40 + 2.00 = 5.40 (08 CoC FS)
3S 4.95x + 0.80 = 5.75 (07 CoC FS)
FCoSp4 3.0 + 0.30 = 3.30 (08 CoC FS)
SlSt3 3.3 + 0.80 = 4.10 (08 SA SP)
2A 3.85x + 1.40 = 5.25 (07 GPF FS)
CCoSp4 3.5 + 0.80 = 4.30 (07 GPF SP)
TES: 76.35

2. Joannie Rochette SP
2A 3.50 + 2.00 = 5.50 (08 SC SP)
3F+2T 6.80 + 0.29 = 7.09 (08 WC SP)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.43 = 3.43 (08 4CC SP)
3Lz 6.00 + 1.60 = 7.60 (08 SC FS)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.43 = 3.93 (08 4CC SP)
SlSt3 3.30 + 0.90 = 4.20 (08 SC SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.40 = 4.80 (08 TEB SP) (08 TEB FS)
LSp3 2.40 + 0.50 = 2.90 (08 SC SP)
TES: 39.45

Joannie Rochette FS
3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.80 + 1.20 = 10.00 (07 CoR FS)
3F 5.50 + 1.60 = 7.10 (08 SC FS)
3Lo 5.00 + 1.20 = 6.20 (08 SC FS)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.43 = 3.43 (08 4CC SP)
CUSp4 2.90 + 0.14 = 3.04 (08 WC FS)
3Lz 6.6x + 1.60 = 8.20 (08 SC FS)
3T+3S+SEQ 7.48x + 1.20 = 8.68 (08 TEB FS)
SlSt3 3.30 + 0.90 = 4.20 (08 SC SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.40 = 4.80 (08 TEB SP) (08 TEB FS)
2A+2A+SEQ 6.16x - 0.80 = 5.36 (08 4CC FS)
3S 4.95x + 1.29 = 6.24 (08 4CC FS)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.43 = 3.93 (08 4CC SP)
TES: 71.18

3. Mao Asada SP
3F+3Lo 10.50 + 1.57 = 12.07 (08 WC SP)
3Lz 6.00 + 0.60 = 6.60 (08 NHK SP)
SpSq4 3.4 + 1.80 = 5.20 (07 SC SP)
FSSp4 3.0 + 0.60 = 3.60 (07 SC FS)
2A 3.5 + 2.00 = 5.50 (08 TEB SP)
CiSt3 3.3 + 0.80 = 4.10 (08 TEB SP)
CCoSp4 3.5 + 0.80 = 4.30 (08 TEB SP)
LSp3 2.4 + 0.90 = 3.30 (07 TEB SP) (08 TEB SP)
TES: 44.67

Mao Asada FS
3A 8.20 + 1.86 = 10.06 (08 4CC FS)
3A<+2T 4.80 - 0.80 = 4.00 (08 NHK FS)
3F+3T 9.50 + 1.43 = 10.93 (08 WC FS)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.60 = 3.60 (07 SC FS)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.80 = 5.20 (07 SC SP)
3S 4.95x + 0.80 = 5.75 (08 NHK FS)
3F+3Lo 11.55x + 1.20 = 12.75 (07 GPF FS)
3Lz* 6.6x + 0.00 = 6.60 (08 NHK SP)
2A 3.85x + 1.57 = 5.42 (07 WC FS)
FCCoSp4 3.5 + 0.50 = 4.00 (08 WC FS)
SlSt3 3.3 + 1.00 = 4.30 (08 NHK FS)
CCoSp4 3.5 + 0.80 = 4.30 (08 TEB SP)
TES: 76.91

Mao has never landed 3Lz in the second half in 07-08 and 08-09 season. I give the base value for the 3Lz.

4. Carolina Kostner SP
3F+3T 9.50 + 1.80 = 11.30 (08 CoR FS)
3Lz 6.00 + 0.80 = 6.80 (07 GPF SP)
LSp3 2.40 + 0.30 = 2.70 (08 CoR SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.43 = 4.83 (08 WC SP)
2A 3.50 + 1.00 = 4.50 (08 WC SP)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.30 = 3.30 (08 CoR SP)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.57 = 4.07 (08 WC FS)
SlSt4 3.90 + 1.00 = 4.90 (07 NHK FS)
SlSt3* 3.30 + 0.80 = 4.10 (08 CoR SP)
TES: 42.4

Carolina Kostner FS
3F+3T 9.50 + 1.80 = 11.30 (08 CoR FS)
3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.80 - 0.40 = 8.40 (08 CoR FS)
3F 5.50 + 1.00 = 6.50 (08 CoR FS)
3Lo 5.00 + 1.00 = 6.00 (07 GPF FS)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.57 = 4.07 (08 WC FS)
2A+3T 8.25x + 0.80 = 9.05 (07 GPF FS)
3S 4.95x + 0.80 = 5.75 (07 NHK FS)
CSSp3 2.60 - 0.06 = 2.54 (08 CoR FS)
SlSt4 3.90 + 1.00 = 4.90 (07 NHK FS)
SlSt3* 3.30 + 0.80 = 4.10 (08 CoR SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.43 = 4.83 (08 WC SP)
2A 3.85x + 0.00 = 3.85 (08 SC FS)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.30 = 3.30 (08 CoR SP)
TES: 70.49

If you think that level 4 step sequence is so exceptional, you can use the second best score 4.1 for SlSt.

5. Yukari Nakano SP
3F+2T 6.80 + 0.29 = 7.09 (08 WC SP)
3Lz 6.00 + 0.43 = 6.43 (08 WC FS)
LSp4 2.70 + 0.50 = 3.20 (08 NHK SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.20 = 4.60 (08 NHK FS)
2A 3.50 + 1.20 = 4.70 (07 SC SP)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.90 = 4.40 (07 SC SP)
CiSt3 3.30 + 0.50 = 3.80 (08 NHK SP)
FCSp4 3.20 + 1.00 = 4.20 (07 SC SP) (07 SC FS)
TES: 38.42

Yukari Nakano FS
3A 8.20 + 0.00 = 8.20 (07 CoR FS)
3F+2T 6.80 + 0.29 = 7.09 (08 WC SP)
3S+2T 5.80 + 0.60 = 6.40 (08 NHK FS)
2A 3.50 + 1.20 = 4.70 (07 SC SP)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.90 = 4.40 (07 SC SP)
3Lz 6.00 + 0.43 = 6.43 (08 WC FS)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.20 = 4.60 (08 NHK FS)
3F 6.05x + 0.00 = 6.05 (07 CoR FS) (08 SA FS)
FCoSp4 3.0 + 0.50 = 3.50 (08 NHK FS)
SlSt3 3.30 + 0.40 = 3.70 (08 NHK FS)
3T+2T+2Lo 7.48x + 0.80 = 8.28 (08 SA FS)
FCSp4 3.20 + 1.00 = 4.20 (07 SC SP) (07 SC FS)
TES: 67.55

6. Miki Ando's SP
3Lz+3Lo 11.00 + 0.80 = 11.80 (08 CoC SP)
3F 5.50 + 0.43 = 5.93 (08 4CC FS)
2A 3.50 + 1.00 = 4.50 (08 SA SP) (07 NHK SP)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.00 = 4.40 (08 SA SP) (08 4CC SP) (08 4CC FS) (07 NHK FS) (07 SA FS)
FSSp4 3.00 + 0.36 = 3.36 (08 4CC SP)
SlSt3 3.30 + 0.70 = 4.00 (08 CoC FS)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.90 = 4.40 (08 SA SP)
LSp2 1.90 + 0.40 = 2.30 (08 CoC SP)
TES: 40.69

Miki Ando's FS
3T+3Lo< 5.50 - 1.00 = 4.50 (08 CoC FS)
3S 4.50 + 1.00 = 5.50 (08 CoC FS)
3F 5.50 + 0.43 = 5.93 (08 4CC FS)
CCSp4 3.20 - 0.18 = 3.02 (08 CoC FS)
SpSq4 3.40 + 1.00 = 4.40 (08 SA SP) (08 4CC SP) (08 4CC FS) (07 NHK FS) (07 SA FS)
3Lz+2Lo 8.25x + 0.40 = 8.65 (08 SA FS)
3Lz 6.60x + 0.43 = 7.03 (08 4CC FS)
3Lo 5.50x + 1.00 = 6.50 (08 4CC FS)
2A+2Lo+2Lo 7.15x + 0.40 = 7.55 (08 SA FS)
CCoSp4 3.50 + 0.90 = 4.40 (08 SA SP)
SlSt3 3.30 + 0.70 = 4.00 (08 CoC FS)
FCCoSp4 3.50 + 0.50 = 4.00 (08 CoC FS)
TES: 65.48

If 3T+3Lo is ratified, the TES will be increased by 5 points.

The total TES scores are
1. Yu-Na Kim 45.3+76.35 = 121.65
2. Mao Asada 44.67+76.91 = 121.58
3. Carolina Kostner 42.4 + 70.49 = 112.89
4. Joannie Rochette 39.45 + 71.18 = 110.63
5. Miki Ando 40.69 + 65.48 = 106.17
6. Yukari Nakano 38.42 + 67.55 = 105.97

If Mao's second 3A is ratified, Mao's potential best score will be increased by 5.5 points. This means that Mao has a room for one downgrade. Mao is trying five difficult attempts, i.e., two triple axels and three 3-3's. If one of them is downgraded, Yu-Na and Mao would have the practically same potential best scores.

On the other hand, both Yu-Na and Mao have never done back-to-back clean performances for SP and FS in two years. They have always made some major mistakes. If Joannie, Carolina, or Miki with 3T+3Lo does clean and good performances close to their potential best, they would have a chance to upset. (They would need two major mistakes from Yu-Na or Mao).

You and Mathman are going to get along like houses on fire.

Very impressive!

I don't believe YuNa's lip combo gets +2 GOE again. It was only 1.2 and 1.0 at SA (without edge calls). Now everyone is watching her takeoff edges. Even if the specialist is lenient enough, the judges won't be that generous. In terms of "possiblity", I believe Mao's two fully rotated 3A's are more likely than YuNa's 3Lo.

I really would like crazy skaters'fans refrain from bashing other skaters in EVERY thread post whether it is related to the jumping technic or not.

By the way, you did great job Athlet.

Great post! I think it's possible that Mao might try to up the level of her layback spin in her SP to a 4.... and I do believe her step sequence in the LP COULD be ratified a 4 as well, but no solid evidence to go by on that yet.

I thought I would contribute a bit to what you put and add the best program components for each lady.

(The best score in an individual component of the PCS is italicized in both SP and FS)


Miki ANDO

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.30 (SA 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.85 (SA 2008)
Performance / Execution : 6.95 (SA 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.30 (SA 2008)
Interpretation : 7.25 (SA 2008)
TOTAL: 28.52

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 7.15 (CoC 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.65 (CoC 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.05 (CoC 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.25 (CoC 2008)
Interpretation : 7.15 (CoC 2008)
TOTAL: 56.40


Mao ASADA

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.75 (NHK 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 7.15 (NHK 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.65 (NHK 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.60 (NHK 2008)
Interpretation : 7.65 (NHK 2008)
TOTAL: 30.24

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 8.00 (NHK 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 7.25 (NHK 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.85 (NHK 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.85 (NHK 2008)
Interpretation : 7.95 (NHK 2008)
TOTAL: 62.24


Yu-Na KIM

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.70 (SA 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 7.20 (SA 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.70 (SA 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.75 (SA 2008)
Interpretation : 7.70 (SA 2008)
TOTAL: 30.44

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 7.75 (CoC 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 7.30 (CoC 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.90 (CoC 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.80 (CoC 2008)
Interpretation : 7.80 (CoC 2008)
TOTAL: 61.68


Carolina KOSTNER

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.35 (CoR 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.40 (CoR 2008)
Performance / Execution : 6.90 (CoR 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 6.95 (CoR 2008)
Interpretation : 7.05 (CoR 2008)
TOTAL: 27.72

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 7.60 (CoR 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.95 (CoR 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.15 (CoR 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.30 (CoR 2008)
Interpretation : 7.55 (CoR 2008)
TOTAL: 58.48


Yukari NAKANO

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.20 (SA 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.80 (SA 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.15 (SA 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.00 (NHK 2008)
Interpretation : 7.15 (SA 2008)
TOTAL: 28.24

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 7.30 (SA 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.55 (SA 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.25 (SA 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.15 (SA 2008)
Interpretation : 7.15 (SA 2008)
TOTAL: 56.64

Joannie ROCHETTE

Short Program

Skating Skills : 7.15 (SC 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 6.75 (TEB 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.10 (SC 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.05 (TEB 2008)
Interpretation : 7.15 (TEB 2008)
TOTAL: 28.16

Free Skate

Skating Skills : 7.55 (TEB 2008)
Transition / Linking Footwork : 7.25 (TEB 2008)
Performance / Execution : 7.75 (SC 2008)
Choreography / Comoposition : 7.75 (TEB 2008)
Interpretation : 7.65 (SC 2008)
TOTAL: 60.72




Rankings

SHORT PROGRAM
1. Yu-Na KIM - 30.44
2. Mao ASADA - 30.24
3. Miki ANDO - 28.52
4. Yukari NAKANO - 28.24
5. Joannie Rochette - 28.16
6. Carolina Kostner - 27.72

Best Individual Components
Skating Skills : Mao ASADA - 7.75
Transition / Linking Footwork : Yu-Na KIM - 7.20
Performance / Execution : Yu-Na KIM - 7.70
Choreography / Comoposition : Yu-Na KIM - 7.75
Interpretation : Yu-Na KIM - 7.70

FREE SKATE
1. Mao ASADA - 62.24
2. Yu-Na KIM - 61.68
3. Joannie ROCHETTE - 60.72
4. Caroline KOSTNER - 58.48
5. Yukari NAKANO - 56.64
6. Miki ANDO - 56.40

Best Individual Components
Skating Skills : Mao ASADA - 8.00
Transition / Linking Footwork : Yu-Na KIM - 7.30
Performance / Execution : Yu-Na KIM - 7.90
Choreography / Comoposition : Mao ASADA - 7.85
Interpretation : Mao ASADA - 7.95

TOTAL BEST PCS (SP + FS)

1. Mao ASADA - 92.48
2. Yu-Na KIM - 92.12
3. Joannie ROCHETTE - 88.88
4. Carolina KOSTNER - 86.20
5. Miki ANDO - 84.92
6. Yukari NAKANO - 84.88

Sorry for Double Post...

from athlet's post (thank you!)

total best TES scores
1. Yu-Na Kim 45.3+76.35 = 121.65
2. Mao Asada 44.67+76.91 = 121.58
3. Carolina Kostner 42.4 + 70.49 = 112.89
4. Joannie Rochette 39.45 + 71.18 = 110.63
5. Miki Ando 40.69 + 65.48 = 106.17
6. Yukari Nakano 38.42 + 67.55 = 105.97

from my other post....

total best PCS scores

1. Mao ASADA - 92.48
2. Yu-Na KIM - 92.12
3. Joannie ROCHETTE - 88.88
4. Carolina KOSTNER - 86.20
5. Miki ANDO - 84.92
6. Yukari NAKANO - 84.88


Total combined scores (best PCS and TES achieved by each skater this season)...

1. Mao ASADA - 214.06
2. Yu-Na KIM - 213.77
3. Joannie ROCHETTE - 199.51
4. Carolina KOSTNER - 199.09
5. Miki ANDO - 191.09
6. Yukari NAKANO - 190.85

It's funny how the list is almost coupled into 3 groups, Mao and Yu-Na (only .29 apart).... then about 14 points down there is Joannie and Carolina (only .42 apart).... then about 8 points down from there is Miki and Yukari (only .24 apart). It's like each skater could potentially have a direct competitor right at their same level.

Wow, thank you. That is a great job, I liked it

How I love this thread despite that I did hate mathmatics!

Yu-na is capable of posting such huge numbers that Mao could land both axels clean and make no other mistakes and still lose to yu-na.

Yu-na is capable of posting such huge numbers that Mao could land both axels clean and make no other mistakes and still lose to yu-na.

Click to expand...

I don't really see that, but that's just me.

Tinymavy15 said:

Yu-na is capable of posting such huge numbers that Mao could land both axels clean and make no other mistakes and still lose to yu-na.

Click to expand...

I can see you belong to the realm of religion, not mathematics and sports. I'd like to see how YuNa Kim can score 215 points with her three 2A's programs. I'll forget about the fact that she has never skated clean in past three years.

Well we just will have to wait and see who does better. I just hope that if Mao Asada does land two triple axels, that it doesn't wear her down and she starts making mistakes during the rest of her programs

Mao skated "apparently clean except the 3A" at all four competitions after last year's GPF. I think we can expect (nearly) same for this season. Considering the improved consistency of her 3A, skating "apparently clean including two 3A's" is within realistic expectations. Mao's current programs can score 200+ points even with two downgradings. To cope with her, other skaters must skate absolutely clean. A very tall order indeed, isn't it?

propronia said:

Mao skated "apparently clean except the 3A" at all four competitions after last year's GPF. I think we can expect (nearly) same for this season. Considering the improved consistency of her 3A, skating "apparently clean including two 3A's" is within realistic expectations. Mao's current programs can score 200+ points even with two downgradings. To cope with her, other skaters must skate absolutely clean. A very tall order indeed, isn't it?

Click to expand...

but Mao is also very inconsistant. Plus, her 3/3s are not there anymore. I have a feeling that, while Mao and Yuna are getting so much attention and they put too much pressure on themselves and fall apart, and Joannie Rochette skates clean and takes the gold.

ks777 said:

but Mao is also very inconsistant. Plus, her 3/3s are not there anymore. I have a feeling that, while Mao and Yuna are getting so much attention and they put too much pressure on themselves and fall apart, and Joannie Rochette skates clean and takes the gold.

Click to expand...

I'm safely counting out Rochette this time. Her "potential" is too low and consistency is not there. She never skated with less than three errors in past three years. The past record shows YuNa and Mao are undoubtedly more consistent than her. And don't you know Rochette never landed the 2A-2A sequence (which many novice and junior skaters use as the easy point getter) cleanly? I must say her jumping ability is poor. I expect Ando and/or Kostner on the podium.

propronia said:

I'm safely counting out Rochette this time. Her "potential" is too low and consistency is not there. She never skated with less than three errors in past three years. The past record shows YuNa and Mao are undoubtedly more consistent than her. And don't you know Rochette never landed the 2A-2A sequence (which many novice and junior skaters use as the easy point getter) cleanly? I must say her jumping ability is poor. I expect Ando and/or Kostner on the podium.

Click to expand...

Because Ando and Koster are any more consistent than Joannie? Joannie scored 180+ with three major errors at TEB, which is more than Ando and Koster can say about themselves. Plus, she's getting higher pcs than either of them.

propronia said:

I'm safely counting out Rochette this time. Her "potential" is too low and consistency is not there. She never skated with less than three errors in past three years. The past record shows YuNa and Mao are undoubtedly more consistent than her. And don't you know Rochette never landed the 2A-2A sequence (which many novice and junior skaters use as the easy point getter) cleanly? I must say her jumping ability is poor. I expect Ando and/or Kostner on the podium.

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I don't agree with you on Rochette. She is pretty consistant this season and Rochette beat Mao easily at TEB. Ando on the podium? you must be kidding, her programs are just too empty and there is no transitions. I would give Ando the lowest PCSs of 6 ladies.

propronia said:

I must say her jumping ability is poor.

Click to expand...

:chorus: Sorry, I got a good kick out of that.

ks777 said:

I don't agree with you on Rochette. She is pretty consistant this season and Rochette beat Mao easily at TEB. Ando on the podium? you must be kidding, her programs are just too empty and there is no transitions. I would give Ando the lowest PCSs of 6 ladies.

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Yes, Rochette is consistently making three errors and consistently missing the novice sequence. Something has changed on paper. I don't want to delve into the maple conspiracy theory here, but her consistency hasn't improved at all.

propronia said:

Yes, Rochette is consistently making three errors and consistently missing the novice sequence. Something has changed on paper. I don't want to delve into the maple conspiracy theory here, but her consistency hasn't improved at all.

Click to expand...

I'm sorry but Joannie Rochette to me is considered among the best. I put her right right up there with Yu-Na Kim and Mao Asada. Rochette won Skate Canada with both stronger technical and artistic scores that can score around Kim and Asada.

At Trophee Eric Bompard, she beat Mao Asada granted she wasn't that consistent but so wasn't Asada so there goes your theory about even though Mao Asada is not that consistent, someone else besides Yu-Na Kim can actually beat her for a change.

And no, Joannie Rochette scores were not inflated. She actually are getting the scores she finally deserves considering her overall skating has gotten a whole lot better