- Joined
- Jan 6, 2007
Is it possible that we don't have a real prediction thread and there is only one week to go? We have the Ice Dance Predictions, the Dream Podiums (which include the likes of Yagudin :yes
, the Front Runner Thread, we got the Meltdown Thread, the "Predicting Total Medals by Country", the The Daring Prediction Thread and this nice analysis with predictions by a blog author.
But there isn't the good old classical prediction thread... So here are the Entries. Only predictions, no dreaming - we got the Dream Podiums for that. I would love to read the reasoning behind the predictions too, but you can't force people.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Ice Dance
1. Virtue / Moir
2. Belbin / Agosto
3. Domnina / Shabalin
I explained that in the Ice Dance Predictions Thread
Women
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Mao Asada
Kim is definitely the frontrunner here, she looks healthier than she ever did, more robust. Her long program seems to have at least one problem each time, but a clean short program should put her in front of everyone else. I love that short program, it's head and shoulders above everyone else's in my opinion. The long program always felt kind of flat in comparision. What I don't like about her is the lack of extension and beautiful positions in spins and spirals, and I even hate it more that the judges give high GOEs to mediocre spins and spirals (and yes, the spiral has speed and often good edging - but it's simply ugly most of the time).
I am still a bit amazed by that underrotation call of the Triple Lutz at 4CC, the jump was perhaps 0,28 rotations short - and technical controllers often don't call jumps that are even more underrotated among the other skaters. It's a pity that she plans to retire after Vancouver, I think she could give a lot more to the sport if she really allowed herself the time to fully develop artistically - her short program shows such potential in that direction.
Rochette has a certain advantage over nearly everyone except Kim: she has solid fully rotated jumps. If she doesn't lose her nerves, and she only did that once this season, she should be on the safe side. Politics will do the rest for her. She does absolutely nothing for me though, I think she is really boring, a bit like Flatt with more experience and better basics.
Asada seems to struggle this season. The Triple Axels are amazing, of course. But no Triple-Triple and always another weak spot in the program, it's either the Lutz or the Salchow, or both. I nearly hate her short program, I think it's the most boring program she has ever done. There is no risk in the program, no daring moves and no artistic idea behind it. It's just pretty girl in pretty dress with lyrical moves - there is no interpretation, no real connection to the music. Her long program demands fire, otherwise it falls flat. But it is a daring idea, a daring dress, daring tech. But she needs fire and some emotional connection to the music, and she only had that at NHK in my opinion. I love her spiral sequence, I love how she worked on those spins - achieving a decent sit-spin at last.
Kostner: I don't really see her on the podium this year. As far as consistency goes this season was even worse than some years before. Only 4 Triples landed at Europeans in the LP, the 3-3 somehow took a nosedive. I enjoy both of her programs, the short program is the Tango with an interesting approach, she looks like a young lady of the twenties enjoying some daring music, there is no seducing though. The long with the rare music has some surrealistic appeal, I quite like it, it's different - and the new dress is simply gorgeous. Her inconsistency makes me mad, I hate that she rarely looks confident while landing the jumps which often results in step-outs etc.
Lepistö I love, but she simply isn't good enough to improve on her eigth place from last year. Someone without Lutz or Flip needs to land everything else in order to succeed on the world stage, and I don't think that she has ever done that. There is always another mistake in her programs. Ando has hopefully worked on all those double jumps and on the program itself. I love the music and would love to see her kicking some butt with it, she could be the power girl among all the others - but somehow always fails to fulfil that role because someone thinks Giselle is a good idea, or she has another confidence problem etc.
Suguri regained her jumps to some extend but lost her fire, I don't know how that happened. Top Ten might be possible though. I prefer Flatt over Czisny by far and hope that she can really show her potential here, perhaps even make Top Five. But it probably will be 6th to 8th place for her. Pöykiö has a stamina issue, the second half of her long program is often littered with insecurities and jump issues. Leonova needs a serious make-over, on basically every level - dress, make-up, hair, basic skating, music choices, consistency. Her enthusiasm is great, but I would be suprised by a Top Ten placement and I hope that politics won't play a role in her placement, because in my opinion she is just not there yet. Meier could fall out of the Top Ten, not only was she injured for a long time, but her programs are simply unimpressive.
Pairs
1. Pang / Tong
2. Zhang / Zhang
3. Savchenko / Szolkowy
4. Dubé / Davison
5. Mukhortova / Trankov
6. Duhamel / Buntin
7. McLaughlin / Brubaker
8. Kavaguti / Smirnov
Pang / Tong: this is their year. They had steady performances throughout the season, the programs are nice, she seems to have fixed her underrotation issue on the side-by-side jumps. I often feel that Zhang / Zhang improve presentation-wise, only to think at the next competition / program that they don't seem to have improved at all. The short is artistically often better than the long. Their performance at Universiade was nearly flawless, they often improve towards the end of the season.
Savchenko / Szolkowy can be as magical as they can be messy. And something tells me that the one magical long program for this season has taken place at Europeans. But performance-wise I like them even better than Pang / Tong, especially the long program. I like that you nearly can't tell where the step sequence is, because everything just flows from one element to the other. I still have a problem with the Adagio part at the end of the program, I know it is supposed to be more uplifting for the audience and the judges. But it simply annoys me, it takes away from the artistic purity the program has, especially in the middle section.
Dubé / Davison: bleh. I hate the long program. I can't even remember what the short program is about. And why are they so slow, haven't they been skating together for like forever? But they have gotten better and better each competition this season and will perhaps even make the podium, I'll give it a 40% chance. I am a sucker for Duhamel / Buntin, they have also an Opera warhorse as their long program and the choreography is rather simple - but they work it, I love it, I love the determination, their power. But something will go wrong, and even if nothing goes really wrong, I would still doubt their podium-making ability.
Mukhortova / Trankov: the short program is gorgeous, somehow their lack of chemistry (IMO) isn't hurting them here. The idea behind the long program might have been good, but I think the lowest number of major mistakes in the program was like 3. Will it work out here? Perhaps there will be just two major mistakes, that should be enough for Top 5, especially with the great SP.
Kavaguti / Smirnov are one of my sentimental favourites, I find them very charming. That said, they just didn't have / have enough time to work the kinks out, to find a style that suits them both. Some people on various figure skating boards think it's mostly her fault, others find her charming - same goes for commentators, Kurt Browning loves Yuko, the British commentators are blown away by Smirnov's qualities. I think the problem is that they couldn't find common ground with their styles. He has better extension, better positions, more body tension - she is charming, has the big smile. My opinion is that he needs to relax a bit, the extension and everything is great - but I think that he might be too tense (he is so handsome, but when he skates he often looks so tense, that his handsome face seems distorted at times). She needs more extension, more calmness, better bascis (just compare their edges during the spirals). Is she planning to retire after 2010? He will be only 25, that's young for a male pairskater - will he get someone new if she retires?
Men
1. Patrick Chan
2. Evan Lysacek
3. Nobunari Oda
4. Brian Joubert
5. Takahiko Kozuka
6. Samuel Contesti
7. Vaughn Chipeur
8. Kevin van der Perren
9. Jeremy Abbott
10. Sergej Voronov
Patrick Chan: Duh! 80 points PCS. And if the second 3A doesn't work and Lysacek had 8 Triples + Quad - it will be simply 85 points PCS. No questions asked, we were prepared for this by Skate Canada and 4CC. I admire his poise under pressure, but I really really think he is overrated by the judges. I also don't really buy his programs, he does all the right things though, this nice blend of Jeff Buttle and Stéphane Lambiel. But the Zebra had fire, fire that Chan doesn't have in my opinion. And I stop right here, because I can ramble about this for hours. No, days. Weeks!
Lysacek will rock this. I still don't like his skating, his blaring lack of musicality - but he has got fire, convincing fire. It's like: "I should have chosen something manly to do, but I somehow got stuck with figure skating - so I simply have to rock this". Oda was nervous all season long, he lost to his compatriot at 4CC - I think the pressure will be off and he will land everything. I find him relatively blank this season though, might have something to do with the nerves. He still deserves better than 10 points less on PCS than Chan. Oh jeez, did it again...
Joubert will mess something up, I just know he will. He might rock the short program, with the quad will still get less than Chan - but the long was a mess all season long. It won't be better here. He shouldn't be too disappointed though, he should go home, find something interesting but safe for next season's long program - and prepare for battle at the Olympics. And I mean prepare for battle big time, like learn a third Quad, preferably the Quad Lutz. I stopped believing in the Ponsero miracle, I think that Den Haag was a huge disappointment for him now, it will be very bad for his self-confidence. I love his skating so much, but right now I can't even see Top Ten.
Did Contesti ever do the Quad while skating for France? He rotated it but fell in Den Haag, I somehow doubt that he tries it in L.A. He has no chance at a podium placement, and might prefer to place well with two good and and clean programs. KVDP collects a lot of points with those Triples, he might be in more pain then ever before in his career - but he is also more consistent than he ever was before. Should be good enough for Top Ten. Chipeur will make Top Ten, I base this on his surprisingly good performance at 4CC. I don't like his short program, I think it's too fuzzy and exhausting to watch. The long is much better, and at 4CC he suddenly landed those jumps and went for them.
Takahiko Kozuka: Winner of the Gold Medal. In my dreams. I love the purity, the innocence of his skating. The best skating skills of all the men, what am I saying: of all the skaters. Beautiful jumps. There is a deep honesty to his skating, I can't describe it better. The short program is sensational, my favourite this season. Long program is not as good, but still beautiful. He is a better skater than Johnny Weir (especially concerning speed), but he makes me feel similar. This calmness, the sureness of every step, the purity. He is just pure, purer than Johnny, because Takahiko has no special effects, no sparkles. He is like a quality movie with no special effects, because the content of the movie is so impressive in itself. I wonder whether he has changed the position of the second Triple Axel in the program, he only landed it cleanly once. It would be great for him if he landed the Quad. He went from underrotated fall (SA, TEB), to underrotated no fall (GPF) to fully rotated fall (4CC). Reads as if it's time for rotated no fall.
Lutai is my favourite Russian boy, I think he would do a lot better if he didn't look like a scared rabbit all the time (a very pretty scared rabbit though). Voronov is much worse then KVDP, at least Kevin skates badly with conviction - Voronov skates badly without conviction. And suddenly those jumps start to swim away from him too. Serious make-over needed! Perhaps even a coaching change, as much as I love Urmanov as a skater.
I would love to see Abbott doing well, his musicality is outstanding - but after GPF I wasn't really impressed with what he was doing. He is unfortunately more a Weir than a Lambiel - meaning: Lambiel managed to look fierce and invested in his programs even after falling three times - Weir looks broken every time something goes wrong. Abbott's magic seems to depend a lot on the state of his nerves and on how the tech is going, too. Mroz will either do very well (20% probability) and place in the Top Five - or he will look like he did at 4CC, that means Top Twenty.
Other guys I look forward to: Fernandez of Spain, I think he has a great future ahead of him and I hope that he makes the Olympics happen for himself - he could already book his place in the Olympic Village in two weeks. I always enjoy Verner, too - but it will not happen this season. It might actually be safer to send Brezina, I think he has a better chance for Top Ten than Verner. Mura, the third Japanese, impressed me at NHK with his very modern powerful athletic style, an interesting change from the catlike-lyrical Japanese style that Takahashi, Kozuka and Oda do. Ten can also book his ticket for the Olympics, he only needs to make the Top 24, just like Fernandez.
Did I mention everything? My dislike for judges' decisions concerning a certain Canadian skater? How pretty Lutai and how handsome Smirnov is? My irrational love for K/S, KVDP? My more rational love for Kozuka? I think I got everything... Geez, this is long. :scowl:
, the Front Runner Thread, we got the Meltdown Thread, the "Predicting Total Medals by Country", the The Daring Prediction Thread and this nice analysis with predictions by a blog author. But there isn't the good old classical prediction thread... So here are the Entries. Only predictions, no dreaming - we got the Dream Podiums for that. I would love to read the reasoning behind the predictions too, but you can't force people.
++++++++++++++++++++++
Ice Dance
1. Virtue / Moir
2. Belbin / Agosto
3. Domnina / Shabalin
I explained that in the Ice Dance Predictions Thread
Women
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Mao Asada
Kim is definitely the frontrunner here, she looks healthier than she ever did, more robust. Her long program seems to have at least one problem each time, but a clean short program should put her in front of everyone else. I love that short program, it's head and shoulders above everyone else's in my opinion. The long program always felt kind of flat in comparision. What I don't like about her is the lack of extension and beautiful positions in spins and spirals, and I even hate it more that the judges give high GOEs to mediocre spins and spirals (and yes, the spiral has speed and often good edging - but it's simply ugly most of the time).
I am still a bit amazed by that underrotation call of the Triple Lutz at 4CC, the jump was perhaps 0,28 rotations short - and technical controllers often don't call jumps that are even more underrotated among the other skaters. It's a pity that she plans to retire after Vancouver, I think she could give a lot more to the sport if she really allowed herself the time to fully develop artistically - her short program shows such potential in that direction.
Rochette has a certain advantage over nearly everyone except Kim: she has solid fully rotated jumps. If she doesn't lose her nerves, and she only did that once this season, she should be on the safe side. Politics will do the rest for her. She does absolutely nothing for me though, I think she is really boring, a bit like Flatt with more experience and better basics.
Asada seems to struggle this season. The Triple Axels are amazing, of course. But no Triple-Triple and always another weak spot in the program, it's either the Lutz or the Salchow, or both. I nearly hate her short program, I think it's the most boring program she has ever done. There is no risk in the program, no daring moves and no artistic idea behind it. It's just pretty girl in pretty dress with lyrical moves - there is no interpretation, no real connection to the music. Her long program demands fire, otherwise it falls flat. But it is a daring idea, a daring dress, daring tech. But she needs fire and some emotional connection to the music, and she only had that at NHK in my opinion. I love her spiral sequence, I love how she worked on those spins - achieving a decent sit-spin at last.
Kostner: I don't really see her on the podium this year. As far as consistency goes this season was even worse than some years before. Only 4 Triples landed at Europeans in the LP, the 3-3 somehow took a nosedive. I enjoy both of her programs, the short program is the Tango with an interesting approach, she looks like a young lady of the twenties enjoying some daring music, there is no seducing though. The long with the rare music has some surrealistic appeal, I quite like it, it's different - and the new dress is simply gorgeous. Her inconsistency makes me mad, I hate that she rarely looks confident while landing the jumps which often results in step-outs etc.
Lepistö I love, but she simply isn't good enough to improve on her eigth place from last year. Someone without Lutz or Flip needs to land everything else in order to succeed on the world stage, and I don't think that she has ever done that. There is always another mistake in her programs. Ando has hopefully worked on all those double jumps and on the program itself. I love the music and would love to see her kicking some butt with it, she could be the power girl among all the others - but somehow always fails to fulfil that role because someone thinks Giselle is a good idea, or she has another confidence problem etc.
Suguri regained her jumps to some extend but lost her fire, I don't know how that happened. Top Ten might be possible though. I prefer Flatt over Czisny by far and hope that she can really show her potential here, perhaps even make Top Five. But it probably will be 6th to 8th place for her. Pöykiö has a stamina issue, the second half of her long program is often littered with insecurities and jump issues. Leonova needs a serious make-over, on basically every level - dress, make-up, hair, basic skating, music choices, consistency. Her enthusiasm is great, but I would be suprised by a Top Ten placement and I hope that politics won't play a role in her placement, because in my opinion she is just not there yet. Meier could fall out of the Top Ten, not only was she injured for a long time, but her programs are simply unimpressive.
Pairs
1. Pang / Tong
2. Zhang / Zhang
3. Savchenko / Szolkowy
4. Dubé / Davison
5. Mukhortova / Trankov
6. Duhamel / Buntin
7. McLaughlin / Brubaker
8. Kavaguti / Smirnov
Pang / Tong: this is their year. They had steady performances throughout the season, the programs are nice, she seems to have fixed her underrotation issue on the side-by-side jumps. I often feel that Zhang / Zhang improve presentation-wise, only to think at the next competition / program that they don't seem to have improved at all. The short is artistically often better than the long. Their performance at Universiade was nearly flawless, they often improve towards the end of the season.
Savchenko / Szolkowy can be as magical as they can be messy. And something tells me that the one magical long program for this season has taken place at Europeans. But performance-wise I like them even better than Pang / Tong, especially the long program. I like that you nearly can't tell where the step sequence is, because everything just flows from one element to the other. I still have a problem with the Adagio part at the end of the program, I know it is supposed to be more uplifting for the audience and the judges. But it simply annoys me, it takes away from the artistic purity the program has, especially in the middle section.
Dubé / Davison: bleh. I hate the long program. I can't even remember what the short program is about. And why are they so slow, haven't they been skating together for like forever? But they have gotten better and better each competition this season and will perhaps even make the podium, I'll give it a 40% chance. I am a sucker for Duhamel / Buntin, they have also an Opera warhorse as their long program and the choreography is rather simple - but they work it, I love it, I love the determination, their power. But something will go wrong, and even if nothing goes really wrong, I would still doubt their podium-making ability.
Mukhortova / Trankov: the short program is gorgeous, somehow their lack of chemistry (IMO) isn't hurting them here. The idea behind the long program might have been good, but I think the lowest number of major mistakes in the program was like 3. Will it work out here? Perhaps there will be just two major mistakes, that should be enough for Top 5, especially with the great SP.
Kavaguti / Smirnov are one of my sentimental favourites, I find them very charming. That said, they just didn't have / have enough time to work the kinks out, to find a style that suits them both. Some people on various figure skating boards think it's mostly her fault, others find her charming - same goes for commentators, Kurt Browning loves Yuko, the British commentators are blown away by Smirnov's qualities. I think the problem is that they couldn't find common ground with their styles. He has better extension, better positions, more body tension - she is charming, has the big smile. My opinion is that he needs to relax a bit, the extension and everything is great - but I think that he might be too tense (he is so handsome, but when he skates he often looks so tense, that his handsome face seems distorted at times). She needs more extension, more calmness, better bascis (just compare their edges during the spirals). Is she planning to retire after 2010? He will be only 25, that's young for a male pairskater - will he get someone new if she retires?
Men
1. Patrick Chan
2. Evan Lysacek
3. Nobunari Oda
4. Brian Joubert
5. Takahiko Kozuka
6. Samuel Contesti
7. Vaughn Chipeur
8. Kevin van der Perren
9. Jeremy Abbott
10. Sergej Voronov
Patrick Chan: Duh! 80 points PCS. And if the second 3A doesn't work and Lysacek had 8 Triples + Quad - it will be simply 85 points PCS. No questions asked, we were prepared for this by Skate Canada and 4CC. I admire his poise under pressure, but I really really think he is overrated by the judges. I also don't really buy his programs, he does all the right things though, this nice blend of Jeff Buttle and Stéphane Lambiel. But the Zebra had fire, fire that Chan doesn't have in my opinion. And I stop right here, because I can ramble about this for hours. No, days. Weeks!
Lysacek will rock this. I still don't like his skating, his blaring lack of musicality - but he has got fire, convincing fire. It's like: "I should have chosen something manly to do, but I somehow got stuck with figure skating - so I simply have to rock this". Oda was nervous all season long, he lost to his compatriot at 4CC - I think the pressure will be off and he will land everything. I find him relatively blank this season though, might have something to do with the nerves. He still deserves better than 10 points less on PCS than Chan. Oh jeez, did it again...
Joubert will mess something up, I just know he will. He might rock the short program, with the quad will still get less than Chan - but the long was a mess all season long. It won't be better here. He shouldn't be too disappointed though, he should go home, find something interesting but safe for next season's long program - and prepare for battle at the Olympics. And I mean prepare for battle big time, like learn a third Quad, preferably the Quad Lutz. I stopped believing in the Ponsero miracle, I think that Den Haag was a huge disappointment for him now, it will be very bad for his self-confidence. I love his skating so much, but right now I can't even see Top Ten.
Did Contesti ever do the Quad while skating for France? He rotated it but fell in Den Haag, I somehow doubt that he tries it in L.A. He has no chance at a podium placement, and might prefer to place well with two good and and clean programs. KVDP collects a lot of points with those Triples, he might be in more pain then ever before in his career - but he is also more consistent than he ever was before. Should be good enough for Top Ten. Chipeur will make Top Ten, I base this on his surprisingly good performance at 4CC. I don't like his short program, I think it's too fuzzy and exhausting to watch. The long is much better, and at 4CC he suddenly landed those jumps and went for them.
Takahiko Kozuka: Winner of the Gold Medal. In my dreams. I love the purity, the innocence of his skating. The best skating skills of all the men, what am I saying: of all the skaters. Beautiful jumps. There is a deep honesty to his skating, I can't describe it better. The short program is sensational, my favourite this season. Long program is not as good, but still beautiful. He is a better skater than Johnny Weir (especially concerning speed), but he makes me feel similar. This calmness, the sureness of every step, the purity. He is just pure, purer than Johnny, because Takahiko has no special effects, no sparkles. He is like a quality movie with no special effects, because the content of the movie is so impressive in itself. I wonder whether he has changed the position of the second Triple Axel in the program, he only landed it cleanly once. It would be great for him if he landed the Quad. He went from underrotated fall (SA, TEB), to underrotated no fall (GPF) to fully rotated fall (4CC). Reads as if it's time for rotated no fall.
Lutai is my favourite Russian boy, I think he would do a lot better if he didn't look like a scared rabbit all the time (a very pretty scared rabbit though). Voronov is much worse then KVDP, at least Kevin skates badly with conviction - Voronov skates badly without conviction. And suddenly those jumps start to swim away from him too. Serious make-over needed! Perhaps even a coaching change, as much as I love Urmanov as a skater.
I would love to see Abbott doing well, his musicality is outstanding - but after GPF I wasn't really impressed with what he was doing. He is unfortunately more a Weir than a Lambiel - meaning: Lambiel managed to look fierce and invested in his programs even after falling three times - Weir looks broken every time something goes wrong. Abbott's magic seems to depend a lot on the state of his nerves and on how the tech is going, too. Mroz will either do very well (20% probability) and place in the Top Five - or he will look like he did at 4CC, that means Top Twenty.
Other guys I look forward to: Fernandez of Spain, I think he has a great future ahead of him and I hope that he makes the Olympics happen for himself - he could already book his place in the Olympic Village in two weeks. I always enjoy Verner, too - but it will not happen this season. It might actually be safer to send Brezina, I think he has a better chance for Top Ten than Verner. Mura, the third Japanese, impressed me at NHK with his very modern powerful athletic style, an interesting change from the catlike-lyrical Japanese style that Takahashi, Kozuka and Oda do. Ten can also book his ticket for the Olympics, he only needs to make the Top 24, just like Fernandez.
Did I mention everything? My dislike for judges' decisions concerning a certain Canadian skater? How pretty Lutai and how handsome Smirnov is? My irrational love for K/S, KVDP? My more rational love for Kozuka? I think I got everything... Geez, this is long. :scowl:
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