2009/2010 Competitive Ladies | Golden Skate

2009/2010 Competitive Ladies

Joined
Jul 11, 2003
Here's how I list them based on many previous comps and showing clean or close to clean programs. The Ladies I look to be this seasons' would-be champions.

Mao Asada
YuNa Kim
Joannie Rochette
Yukuri Nakano
Rachel Flatt
Alena Leonova
Sarah Meier

Skaters I see who are not as competitive

Laura Lepisto
Fumie Suguri
Elene Gedevanishvili
Alissa Czisney
Carolina Kostner
Caroline Zhang
Ashley Wagner
Kimmie Meissner

For that second grouping I will look to the GPs to see if there is any competitiveness in them this year.

What do you think?
 

Buttercup

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 25, 2008
I think Caro, even after bombing at Worlds, is a lot more competitive than some of the other ladies listed in the first group. Leonova (inexperienced, and not yet there with the presentation) Sarah Meier (returning from injury) and Yukari Nakano (up and down season) are bigger question marks IMO than Kostner and Lepisto; possibly bigger question marks than Caroline Zhang as well.

Also, unless Yu-Na and Mao totally bomb - and the likelihood of both doing so at the same event are small - I can't see anyone else contending for the top of the podium at major events.

And you forgot Miki Ando.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Caroline Zhang is an extremely competitive young lady and should never be ruled out.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
I think Caro, even after bombing at Worlds, is a lot more competitive than some of the other ladies listed in the first group. Leonova (inexperienced, and not yet there with the presentation) Sarah Meier (returning from injury) and Yukari Nakano (up and down season) are bigger question marks IMO than Kostner and Lepisto; possibly bigger question marks than Caroline Zhang as well.

Also, unless Yu-Na and Mao totally bomb - and the likelihood of both doing so at the same event are small - I can't see anyone else contending for the top of the podium at major events.

And you forgot Miki Ando.


Yes, leaving out Miki was odd, or maybe Joe forgot her. I agree that a clean Miki or that rarest of things, a clean Caro K. have strong medal possibilties.

The following skaters, who I like - don't have any realisitic chance to medal in Vancouver:
Yukuri Nakano - (no medal for "wrap around leg" in this era)
Alena Leonova - (not even close to being polished enough)
Sarah Meier - (always nice to watch but doesn't have the jumps)
 

eleonora.d

On the Ice
Joined
Jun 8, 2006
I think we can divide the ladies in 3 groups:

1st group
Yu Na Kim
Mao Asada

(no need for explainations)

2nd group
Kostner
Rochette
Ando
Nakano

most probably the contenders for the Bronze medal (or some other color in case of meltdowns/surprises, which basically *always* happens at the Olympics). I can easily see Rochette or Kostner on the podium with Yu Na and Mao, Kostner because she did already many times (gpf 2007/08, worlds 2008, gpf 2008/09) and she is not easy to beat if her 3/3 comes back, Rochette because she seemed to find her perfect program layout this year and she can be a real favourite in her home country (she seems quite mature to turn the pressure into something positive rather than a meltdown).


3rd group

Flatt, Zhang
Lepisto, Meier
Leonova, Suguri (if she's going)

they can be the "surprises" even though it's very diffcult to me to see them on the podium, most probably they will beat someone of the 2nd group that we wouldn't expect.
I hope Gedevanishvili will be good as well.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
Caroline Zhang is an extremely competitive young lady and should never be ruled out.


Is it possible that the latest change in scoring could help Caroline Z this season?
Excuse my ignorance on the terminolgy (if Button thinks it is too complicated then I don't feel so bad). Was it something about UR's not being penalized as much in the past?

I wonder about Caro Z and Caro K. Both are compelling skaters. Neither has a textbook 2-axle but it feels like only Caro Z gets penalized for it.
Some say Caro Z skates too slow forcing herself to rotate too fast in the air to complete her triples.
I see Caro K skating too fast and many times being tilted in the air on her triples -and frequently landing awkwardly.

One girl seems to get penalized for her jumps and the other seems to get a free pass (even when Caro K. touches her hand down on the ice her marks don't usually reflect it).

I think with strong, cleans skates either Caro could do well at Vancouver. I think the marking of both of these girls never seems quite right to me and that may determine more about their chances in Vancouver (should they be there) than almost anything else. And that doesn't feel right to me.
 
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Alicja

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 17, 2009
Is it possible that the latest change in scoring could help the Caroline Z this season?
Excuse my ignorance on the terminolgy (if Button thinks it is too complicated then I don't feel so bad). Was it something about UR's not being penalized as much in the past?

I wonder about Caro Z and Caro K. Both are compelling skaters. Neither has a textbook 2-axle but it feels like only Caro Z gets penalized for it.
Some say Caro Z skates too slow and forces herself into twirling too fast to complete her triples.
I see Caro K skating too fast and many times being tilted in the air on her triples -and frequently landing awkwardly.

One girl seems to get penalized for her jumps and the other seems to get a free pass.(even when her hand touches down her marks don't seem to reflect what happened on the ice).

I think with strong, cleans skates either Caro could do well at Vancouver. I think the marking of both of these girls never seems quite right to me and that may determine more about their chances in Vancouver (should they be there) than almost anything else. And that doesn't feel right to me.

I don't think Caro Z gets penalized all that much for her jumps other than the end of her 3-3 and edge calls on her lutz.
Caro K actually gets penalized for what she does, she got negative GOEs for every jumping pass other than her opening combo and her 3 loop in her LP at worlds in 2008.
It's just that Caro K basics are far better than Caro Zs, even though at times it seems that Caro K can't quite control her speed. It's all a matter for Caro K to control speed and Caro Z to gain some speed and work on basics.
I don't particularly care for Caro K's style but she is a very strong, very talented skater who just has some mental issues it seems. Caro Z also has tons of potential but she needs to work on her weaknesses and I'm sure she will and her results will tell.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
I don't think Caro Z gets penalized all that much for her jumps other than the end of her 3-3 and edge calls on her lutz.
Caro K actually gets penalized for what she does, she got negative GOEs for every jumping pass other than her opening combo and her 3 loop in her LP at worlds in 2008.
It's just that Caro K basics are far better than Caro Zs, even though at times it seems that Caro K can't quite control her speed. It's all a matter for Caro K to control speed and Caro Z to gain some speed and work on basics.
I don't particularly care for Caro K's style but she is a very strong, very talented skater who just has some mental issues it seems. Caro Z also has tons of potential but she needs to work on her weaknesses and I'm sure she will and her results will tell.


Thanks for that explanation. Perhaps I am blinded by the beauty of Caro Z's skating and left somewhat cold by Caro K's programs. Yuna skates fast but I never get that "runaway truck" feeling from her the way I do from Caro K.
I am not a big fan of Gala skating - but I do remember seeing Caro K. in a Gala where her skating was so full of expression and yes, she actually looked very graceful. Even her hair and makeup were different and I thought what a shame we don't see anything like this from Caro K in her competitive programs. Again, I recognize this may just be a matter of my own preferences. But I don't tthink Caro's marks were right at '08 Worlds and even at 09 Worlds they seemed to high to reflect what happened on the ice. Maybe it is good that I am not a judge :)
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
The new rule on underrotations is that the judges do not see the underrotation call of the technical specialist on their screens, and so they are free to give plus or minus GOEs as they see fit.

For a downgraded solo jump, this will not have very much effect, because once the jump is downgraded by the technical specialist, the GOEs are scored at the rate of the lower jump.

In Caroline Zhang's situation, however, nowadays she mostly gets an underroation call only on her 3F/3T combination. In this case, even when the second jump is downgraded to a double, the GOE is taken off the whole element at the rate of the higher jump.

For instance, at Four Continents Caroline's 3F+3T< got base score 6.8 (5.5+1.3), and the GIOE was -1.20 (four -1's and one -2 after random judges' draw and trimming).

In the LP it was 6.8 + -1.6 GOE (three -2's and two -1's).

If half of the judges had disagreed with the underrotation call, Caroline might have gotten a full point higher on each of these attempts. (I think the reason for the change is not to discourage skaters from attempting triple-triple combos for fear of the underrotation double penalty.)
 
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janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
Yuna and Mao - what wonderful skaters :clap:
This year at Worlds the showdown between them never materialized on the ice.
This is also a distinct possibilty at Vancouver. As co- favorites with fanatic followings at home they will be feeling the pressure.
Yuna has had injury problems two of the last three seasons and was fragile back in her junior days. I hope she is healthy this season but any handicapper would consider this factor.
Pressure - Mao has the distinct advantage of having competed through pressure packed Japanese Natls. The closest Yuna ever came to this was the GP Final last season in Korea - and it looked like it effected her.
Comfort edge - Yuna has been with the same team for a while now and has shown steady progress. Training in Canada under Orser doesn't hurt either.
Mao did not look comfortable at Worlds - but bounced back at WTT. Did the pressure of defending her title in LA cause Mao to skate so far under her potential? How much did the coaching change(s) effect Mao? Will Tat come up with the right music and choreo for Mao this season? If not - Yuna may walk away witht the OGM as easily as she won the WC. "Domination"was the term Michelle used and no one has argued about that.
Joannie had a good season but has never come close to matching the scores Yuna and Mao can run up. She has been inconsistent throughout her career but was solid last season. Skating at home she will be under more pressure than any of the Ladies. Can she handle it or will she fold and open up the race for bronze?
Caro K - is there a great skate left in her? A clean Carolina, skating for a majority of Euro judges will score very very high. If she actually skates two strong programs she could challenge for silver of Gold. But that is a mighty big "if."
Miki - which Miki will show up? Always a threat at any competition, an in-form Miki (please, a little better choreo) - has a strong chance to medal.
 
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dewey

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 18, 2004
2nd group
Kostner
Rochette
Ando
Nakano

I would actually move Nakano down to the third group, but otherwise I totally agree with your assessment
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
.And you forgot Miki Ando.
and Sasha Cohen as well.
Both should be very competitive..

I am not predicting here. I am saying that my first group of ladies are of competitive spirit, whom I believe will not freeze up in competition.

The second longer group I listed are all iiffy skaters. I dare say, some will have good SPs and poor LPs, some will be lucky and have good SPs and LPs, but most will not.

Rather than mull over their results, it's more like who is most likely to be consistent
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
The new rule on underrotations is that the judges do not see the underrotation call of the technical specialist on their screens, and so they are free to give plus or minus GOEs as they see fit.
Hey MM, so the Tech Specialists have lost some power, But what happens at the conclusion of the competition. The 9 pt lutz that was underrotated and not seen by the judges now gets 12 points? What happens to the UR call after that? Is there an automatic deduction as with the WET?

IMHO, point scoring can be whimsical. A wrong edge take off gets an automatic -1 in addition to what the judges think, and A wrong edge landing does not get an automatic deduction, but gets the varied GoEs of the judges.
Now does that make sense? :scratch:
 

fairly4

Medalist
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
If the list is just for champions of worlds, olympics . I somewhat agree with the exception of rachel and alena, however if you include nationals i agree.
as far as 2nd tier laura lepisto she already won FC
As far as I look at it, skaters can improve and correct their mistakes during the off season so I don't count anyone out ever.

As far as the new rule, it seems it will favor certain skaters over others.
I am not going to name names of who it will favor over not.
Your list should include all the skaters who are competing , because it is a competition and anything can happen, but by counting one skater/skaters out so early and that said skater(s) win, then most people are surprised when they shouldn't be. Because as I stated earlier anything can happen.
if they judge fairly (which I doubt) anyone can win, medal.
 
Joined
Mar 14, 2006
As of this moment, I see the following (but totally expect things to change by December):

Gold-silver probabilities:
Asada
Kim

Also podium probabilities:
Rochette
Ando

Dark horses for podium:
Cohen
Kostner
Nakano
Leonova*
Zhang*
Flatt*
Wagner*

Very unlikely to medal:
Gedevanishvili
Meier
Meissner
Suguri
Lepisto
Czisny

This isn't based on my hopes but what I expect based on recent skating. The asterisked skaters haven't quite performed at Olympic podium level, but they're at the right age to burst out and break away from the pack.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Hey MM, so the Tech Specialists have lost some power, But what happens at the conclusion of the competition. The 9 pt lutz that was underrotated and not seen by the judges now gets 12 points?

I think it goes like this:

Let's say the skater does a triple Lutz (base value 6.0). The caller calls it underrotated. Now the base value is the same as for a double Lutz (1.9).

Lets say that three of the scoring judges thought the same as the caller, that it was underrotaed. But the other two judges thought it was not underrotated. If the jump was Ok but not spectacular otherwise, the three judges might give -1 or worse GOE, and the other two judges might give 0 GOE. So works out like this:

Base value = 1.9. GOE = (-0.3 + -0.3 + -0.3 + 0.0 + 0.0) / 5 = -0.18. Total score for the element = 1.72.

Under the old rules, all five judges would have to give -1 GOE whether they agreed with the underrotation call or not. The skater would get 1.9 - 0.30 = 1.60.

So, not much of a difference for a solo triple jump.

What happens to the UR call after that?

The deduction is off the base value. The jump goes into the record as 3Lz< with a base value of 1.9 instead of 6.0. There is no further mandatory deduction.

MHO, point scoring can be whimsical. A wrong edge take off gets an automatic -1 in addition to what the judges think,...

I think the right way to say it is that if the caller gives an "e" call, then the judges must give the element an overall negative GOE. Each judge will give either -1, -2, or -3 depending on how bad the edge was and how good or bad other features of the jump were.

If the caller gives a "!" then the judges can do as they please, but they are supposed to factor in the questionable edge, along with other considerations, to come up with the overall GOE mark for that element.

(I hope I got that right. :) )
 

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
I pretty much agree with Spun Silver's entire list. I assume this is for the Olympics. Of course something crazy will happen like both Kim and Asada get seriuosly hurt and withdraw and then Miki will fall on a quad and Nakano will end up winning the whole thing, but your list seems very reasonable.
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
still not clear to me. The Tech Specialist is still calling but the judges do not have to heed to his call but use their own eyes. No?

And my conclusion that with wrong take-offs there is an automatic deduction (-1) included in the final score., but there is no such automatic deduction in an under rotated landing.
 

nylynnr

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 19, 2008
The GOE hit for under rotated (by more than 1/4 turn) jumps, prior to this change in the guideline, was most often -2. (The guideline for jumps under rotated by a 1/4 turn or less was -1.) So I think this change could potentially have an even greater impact than noted above, assuming some judges do not deduct 2 GOEs for under rotated jumps.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
still not clear to me. The Tech Specialist is still calling but the judges do not have to heed to his call but use their own eyes. No?

Yes, that's right.

However, once the tech specialist makes the call, the base value of the jump is reduced from 6.0 points down to 1.9 points. The judges have nothing to do with this part.

The only thing the judges can to is give out plus or minus GOE. They do not know what the tech specialist has called (except the name of the element). The judges use their own eyes to give out plus or minus GOEs.

However, the GOES are only three tenths of a point in this example. So the tech specialst is still the most important. The tech specialist's call cost the skater 4.1 points, and all the judges can do is add on a few tenths of a point, plus or minus.

And my conclusion that with wrong take-offs there is an automatic deduction (-1) included in the final score., but there is no such automatic deduction in an under rotated landing.

There is no automatic deduction per se for a wrong-edge takeoff, like for instance there is an automatic one point deduction for a fall. And there is no reduction in base value.

The penalty for a wrong-edge take-off is that the judges must give a negative GOE for that element, whether they agree with the call or not.
 
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