Caroline Zhang's 2009-10 season

janetfan · Oct 31, 2009

PolymerBob said:
I think all the girls should, and will, try to get to the GPF. It is a significant achievement. The USFSA has stated that GPF performance will be a factor in choosing the Olympic team.

So if a girl makes the Final, the USFSA will consider that. If she podiums, she is likely to get a spot on the team. If she wins, she has punched her ticket to Vancouver.

There is a first time for everything but I don't think what you are describing has ever happened before.

If Ashley makes the GPF and comes in 4 or 5 at Nationals she has two chances to be selected to the Olympic team: slim and none.

There are rules ...... and there are "rules."

In a year when our Ladies had three spots I could see a slightly better chance, especially if the 3rd place skater was young or came from nowhere to win the bronze.

But how in the world can you expect for the Gold and Silver medalists at Natls not to be the two who will be selected?

Please explain - anyone - if I am missing something here.

PolymerBob · Nov 1, 2009

janetfan said:
But how in the world can you expect for the Gold and Silver medalists at Natls not to be the two who will be selected?

Please explain - anyone - if I am missing something here.

A perfectly valid question ---- and here is a perfectly valid answer.

Go down to page 6 and start reading from " II. DISCRETIONARY SELECTION (if applicable) .

http://www.usfigureskating.org/cont... WOG FSK Athlete Selection Procedures web.pdf

janetfan · Nov 1, 2009

PolymerBob said:
A perfectly valid question ---- and here is a perfectly valid answer.

Go down to page 6 and start reading from " II. DISCRETIONARY SELECTION (if applicable) .

http://www.usfigureskating.org/cont... WOG FSK Athlete Selection Procedures web.pdf

Thanks for the link but I couldn't get to page 6.

Is it something like Natls placement is 80% of the the criteria for being selected and GP is 15% with a few other factors (room for selection committee to manuever?)

But like I said, I will believe it only when I see it happen. So far it hasn't.
In fact being GPF champion hasn't really mattered or paid off when Worlds came around the past few seasons as GPF champions keep losing, sometimes badly.

The fairest way to decide is at Nationals because it is the competition when they all get to compete against each other.

It would seem just plain dumb to use Caroline's performance at TEB as a factor since she was coming off an injury and it was so early in the season.

Other factors that basically eliminate or render the GP series as close to meaningless include the random luck associated with a skater's draw. There is also timing such as an early start as well as travel location factors.

For me I am glad that it is still the performance at Natls that determines our World and Olympic teams. The GP series may be great fun and a very good barometer - but thankfully Caroline will still have a chance to make the Olympic team this season. All she needs to do is come in first or second at Natls and she will get her ticket.

PolymerBob · Nov 1, 2009

janetfan said:
Thanks for the link but I couldn't get to page 6.

Here are the important points from the document.

--------------------------------------------------

It has been the experience of U.S. Figure Skating that the athletes who have had success at the international and Olympic level are those who have demonstrated consistent performances as opposed to the athletes who have only a single great performance. Therefore, by not having the selection process based solely on one event, U.S. Figure Skating can select the best athletes to represent the United States at the 2010 Winter Olympic Games.

To field the most competitive team, U.S. Figure Skating's ICMS [International Committee Management Subcommittee] will take into consideration results from the events outlined below to determine athletes who will have the most performance impact at the 2010 Winter Olympic Games. The ICMS, and the International Committee's approval process of the ICMS' recommendations, will take into consideration placement and competitive field at the following events in priority order:

a. 2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships
b. 2009/10 ISU Senior Grand Prix Final
c. 2009 World Figure Skating Championships
d. 2009 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships
e. 2009 World Junior Figure Skating Championships
f. 2009/10 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final

janetfan · Nov 1, 2009

PolymerBob said:
Here are the important points from the document.

--------------------------------------------------

It has been the experience of U.S. Figure Skating that the athletes who have had success at the international and Olympic level are those who have demonstrated consistent performances as opposed to the athletes who have only a single great performance. Therefore, by not having the selection process based solely on one event, U.S. Figure Skating can select the best athletes to represent the United States at the 2010 Winter Olympic Games.

To field the most competitive team, U.S. Figure Skating's ICMS [International Committee Management Subcommittee] will take into consideration results from the events outlined below to determine athletes who will have the most performance impact at the 2010 Winter Olympic Games. The ICMS, and the International Committee's approval process of the ICMS' recommendations, will take into consideration placement and competitive field at the following events in priority order:

a. 2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships
b. 2009/10 ISU Senior Grand Prix Final
c. 2009 World Figure Skating Championships
d. 2009 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships
e. 2009 World Junior Figure Skating Championships
f. 2009/10 ISU Junior Grand Prix Final

Thanks for providing the page. I am more or less aware of it and think it makes sense. It is a safety net - say if Bebe would come in second this season at Natls and US Skating wanted to choose someone else.

Right now, there is not much to choose from between Caroline, Mirai, and Ashley on the criteria listed. Rachael might have a slight edge which could also be gone if she doesn't do much better at SA.

I interpret the meaning of this page much differently than you do. Maybe I am wrong - that's not a problem for me.

To imply or suggest that items A. - F. carry the same weight is NOT at all the way I see it. It believe it is like I said before with - Nationals being more (85%) important than the other 5 qualifying factors (combined).

Other opinions welcomed on this.
Thanks again for the list p-bob.

ImaginaryPogue · Nov 1, 2009

Agreed. And this year, with 4CC being so close to Nationals AND so far away from most N. American skaters, I'd be quite surprised if that really factored into the Olympic team. In fact, I think the 4CC and Olympic teams will be entirely different from each other.

janetfan · Nov 1, 2009

ImaginaryPogue said:
Agreed. And this year, with 4CC being so close to Nationals AND so far away from most N. American skaters, I'd be quite surprised if that really factored into the Olympic team. In fact, I think the 4CC and Olympic teams will be entirely different from each other.

We are a large federation with quantity but not so much quality this year.
It makes sense to give a bunch of these skaters a chance and 4CC and even the Worlds team after the Olympics would seem to offer opportunities for more than just the same two girls to get some more international experience.

R.D. · Nov 1, 2009

ImaginaryPogue said:
Agreed. And this year, with 4CC being so close to Nationals AND so far away from most N. American skaters, I'd be quite surprised if that really factored into the Olympic team. In fact, I think the 4CC and Olympic teams will be entirely different from each other.

so, send 1 & 2 to the Olys and 3, 4 and 5 to 4CCs.

Ginask8s · Nov 1, 2009

janetfan said:
Thanks for providing the page. I am more or less aware of it and think it makes sense. It is a safety net - say if Bebe would come in second this season at Natls and US Skating wanted to choose someone else.

Right now, there is not much to choose from between Caroline, Mirai, and Ashley on the criteria listed. Rachael might have a slight edge which could also be gone if she doesn't do much better at SA.

I interpret the meaning of this page much differently than you do. Maybe I am wrong - that's not a problem for me.

To imply or suggest that items A. - F. carry the same weight is NOT at all the way I see it. It believe it is like I said before with - Nationals being more (85%) important than the other 5 qualifying factors (combined).

Other opinions welcomed on this.
Thanks again for the list p-bob.

I think it allows them to do pretty much whatever they want to do. It seems to keep all the options open. Strictly based on the criteria I would think Rachel has the edge.

janetfan · Nov 1, 2009

R.D. said:
so, send 1 & 2 to the Olys and 3, 4 and 5 to 4CCs.

I think that is what will happen and see a possibilty for 1 and 2 from Olympic team not to necessarily be the same at Worlds.

Of course, US Skating needs a better showing at Worlds if they want the 3rd spot back. At this moment I am not sure if that will happen.
But last year I think Rachael and Caroline could have done it.
This year who knows who will go and if they will skate well enough to get the 3rd spot back.

Trewyn · Nov 1, 2009

I think, from the fact that we all believe that US Ladies might not be a factor at the Olympics as far as medals are concerned, it would be very logical to send the same 2 girls to the Olys and Worlds;
- if they don't medal; they'll definitely be willing to do Worlds
- the actual medalists at the Olys might not to Worlds; so they have a better shot at medalling at 2010 Worlds
- as you said; the 3 spots the US wants to regain would be more likely achieved with the top guns the US has... Who those top 2 are going to be is very uncertain right now, we all agree.

So the GP(F) might be a factor in case someone very unlikely pulls an upset and wins Nats like examples given Bebe or maybe even Alexe. But i also believe that it's very likely the USFSA will just send the top 2 at Nats, regardless of how they performed at the GP. That doesn't take away that confidence-wise and PCS-wise it's very positive to do well at the GP. The US Lady that does best at the GP might get a PCS boost at Nats; which; if more than 2 girls skate clean might give the edge.

PolymerBob · Nov 2, 2009

I just thought of something. If Caroline does not make the Olympic Team, she still has an opportunity to pick up two gold medals - the Four Continents and her second Junior Worlds.

LeCygne · Nov 2, 2009

^ Provided they don't pick the Olympic team for 4CC and Worlds too.. And Junior Worlds... I can't imagine another JW title would be too satisfying for her..

On another note, is it safe to say that Caroline's 4th at TEB ranks a bit above Rachael and Alissa's 4ths at CoC and CoR? (certainly above Mirai's 5th at CoC as well). Caroline finished just off the podium to Yu-Na, Mao, and Yukari at TEB whereas Alissa's 4th was behind Miki, Ashley, and Alena and Rachael's 4th was behind Akiko, Kiira, and Joannie.

Although Caroline's scores are the lowest so far, scores can't really be compared from GP to GP and they're all pretty much in the 150's range anyway. I doubt USFSA would really take into account the field at each event anyway, but it's gotta count for something? Especially since TEB was considered THE event of the fall season and CoC and CoR were relatively weaker events..

oleada · Nov 2, 2009

I would say that all the results for the ladies you mentioned are about equal. None of them seem to stand out from the pack yet, expect possibly Wagner.

I think the only difference is that Rachael might end up lucking out because the SA field is so weak, she could manage a second place finish and potentially qualify for the final.

Andalusia · Nov 4, 2009

http://www.nbcolympics.com/photos/galleryid=267030.html

:laugh:

feraina · Nov 4, 2009

Oh, goodness, such cute photos. Caroline with baby fat. :laugh:

cutie-pie · Nov 4, 2009

Thanks for the link. I really love all Caroline's photos. She is so adorable and beautiful.
Both my husband and I always love and enjoy watching her skating.
Go! Caroline, Sasha, Mao, Miki and Yuna.

PolymerBob · Nov 5, 2009

These are very pretty. Some of the pictures don't look like her, of course they were taken many years ago.

I wonder how Caroline's training is coming along. I hope she will try for the triple/triple again.

feraina · Nov 7, 2009

Hmm, so, Ashley really gave the silver or even gold away at NHK. First half of the program was so good, and then the second half fell apart. Too bad. :no:

Now with four GP's behind us, Miki has definitely qualified. Yu-na almost certainly will qualify. Akiko Suzuki will probably qualify. Both Alena Leonova and Ashley Wagner will probably qualify. Joannie will probably qualify. Because of the fact Alena & Ashley split two silvers and bronzes, Caroline's chances just got a lot dimmer. It looks like she will have to win SC to go to GPF. And that would be over Joannie, Akiko, Alissa, and Mirai. Tall order.

R.D. · Nov 7, 2009

Just an aside...didn't there used to be a " No Spoilers" rule in the Edge a few years back (when the GP was on ABC)? I'm surprised that it hasn't been re-instituted with NBC/US coverage, especially since the delay is no longer a week or two, but only a few hours/couple of days...

Anyway, I've said this before- for the Americans, better now than in a couple of months.

Caroline Zhang's 2009-10 season

janetfan

Match Penalty

PolymerBob

janetfan

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PolymerBob

janetfan

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ImaginaryPogue

janetfan

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R.D.

Ginask8s

janetfan

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Trewyn

PolymerBob

LeCygne

oleada

Andalusia

feraina

cutie-pie

PolymerBob

feraina

R.D.

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