Midsummer Thoughts on the Olympic Front Runners | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Midsummer Thoughts on the Olympic Front Runners

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Rochette beat Asada three out of five times in the 08-09 season. I wouldn't necessarily predict it at the Olympics though. That said, I do think that Rochette (despite the Grand Prix Final) is a stronger skater than she's been, mentally. Dick Button said something along the lines that it's only been these past two seasons where she's really realized how good she was and that she can compete with the best in the world. The question than becomes does Vancouver frighten or energize her. I'm hoping for the latter. Competing on home turf energized Manley, but we saw Kostner collapse in 2006 (or Hubert in 1992).

I understand the trepidation to predict the easy favourites for 1-2-3 at the Olympics, as there's always someone who rises to the occasion (Arakawa, Hughes), someone who falters (fill in the blank), but sometimes, the easy favourites are the winners. Looking at Turin, the ice dance medalists mirrored the Worlds 05 medalists; men had Plushenko pushing the medalists down one spot, and pairs had two of the three medalists repeating. And the thing with Kim and Asada is at their best (using the season's personal best scores) are a full 10-15 points ahead of the rest of the field (as someone else noted - they can make mistakes and still be record-beaters), with Rochette/Ando/Kostner et al clustered below them (which makes the race for bronze a great one)..
 

Bill508

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 4, 2006
I only watch the Ladies. The media "favorite" which I guess will be YuNa, rarely wins. Watch Miki for the Gold, Mao silver, YuNa Bronze. Fumie may surprise everyone (I hope so).
 

Bennett

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 20, 2007
Good point.

I'm worried more about Mao's mental strength than Yuna's though. Mao seems to deliver stronger programs at non-ISU events than actual comps. She is also a lot more expressive at galas than comps. Joannie could be vulnerable to pressures at home.

Miki could surprise us. She is so unpredictable. But when she falls apart, it seems not necessarily all because of outside pressures, but also other things going on such as injuries and other mental issues within herself. She could actually be pretty strong under outside pressures and have histories of delivering clean programs at big events. When she is on, she is on, and vice versa.

I couldn't imagine fumie medaling. But I could picture her making the Olympic team and make the top 8. Yet, I also want Suzuki to make the team.
 
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wonderlen3000

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2008
I think it's all depend on how much Kim/Asada can build up a cushion between the rest of the field. If they skate clean and up to their potential, Kim with 3+3 and Asada with either 3F+3Lo or 3A+2T, they can easily get score around 74+ for sure.
The rest of the field Ando/Kostner with their 3+3 and Rochett with her home town advantage, have at least 6 to 8 points to catch up. That's mean either Kim or Asada can afford to make at least one big mistake ( a fall or poped jump) to stay on the podium. If they have big cushion, i can see Kim leaving out the 3Lo and Asada leaving out the 3+3 for the LP.
I'm sure 6 clean triples program from either them is more than enough to win OGM.
 

museksk8r

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 31, 2006
Country
United-States
someone asked if joannie typically skates will in front of home crowd.........

At Skate Canada grand prix competitions, Joannie has won the 2005 silver, the 2006 gold, the 2007 bronze, and the 2008 gold. She has won 5 Canadian National Championships, 2 of those skating clean 7 triple LPs (in 2005 and in 2009).

At the 2006 Worlds-post Olympics in Canada, she was 1st in the QR, 7th in the SP, and 8th in the LP to finish 7th overall. Not to make excuses for her, but I remember hearing she was dealing with the death of a good friend who had trained in the same rink with her at the time, so she wasn't in the best frame of mind dealing with such a distraction.

At last season's 4CC held in the 2010 Vancouver Olympic rink, she placed 2nd in the SP and 2nd in the LP (landing 7 triples, but only credited with 6 triples because her 3+3 sequence had an extra step in between the two jumps, negating the 2nd triple) to finish 2nd overall. At the same competition, Yu-Na Kim placed 1st in the SP and 3rd in the LP to finish 1st overall. Mao Asada placed 6th in the SP and 1st in the LP to finish 3rd overall.
 
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snowflake

I enjoy what I like
Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 10, 2008
Joannie Rochette

Thanks for the sum up museksk8r. Looks good for Joannie :thumbsup: My impression is that she has had low self-esteem, not realising how good she is, and although performing so well :clap: Now that she must believe in herself(after last season's world silver) she is my olympic ladies favorite.
 

Ginask8s

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 27, 2008
I saw Rochette in Washington at Worlds and she was not very good. in comparison to some of the other top skaters. I dont even think she could do a consistent lutz.. It is interesting to me that she has remained in skating and improved every year ( perhaps more skaters need to hang in there and develop) She could very well improve some more and have a great day and win. I think she has a very complete package with great sensitivity to the nuances of music, and wonderful athletic ability. I hope the home court works for her. I also love her dresses and I think she has a beautiful ice skating figure.
 

i love to skate

Medalist
Joined
Dec 13, 2005
I saw Rochette in Washington at Worlds and she was not very good. in comparison to some of the other top skaters. I dont even think she could do a consistent lutz.. It is interesting to me that she has remained in skating and improved every year ( perhaps more skaters need to hang in there and develop) She could very well improve some more and have a great day and win. I think she has a very complete package with great sensitivity to the nuances of music, and wonderful athletic ability. I hope the home court works for her. I also love her dresses and I think she has a beautiful ice skating figure.

Well Worlds in Washington was her first World Championship, of course she wouldn't be as good as the top competitors! That was the year she also spent re-working her lutz because she used to flutz. It caused her two years of struggling but it has paid off for her now.
 
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