U.S. ladies’ prospects?

sorry, I meant Worlds this year (2009)

cornell08 said:

Alissa is breathtaking when she's on-- that said, is it better to have a skater who can consistently put out 175 or is it better to have a skater who would definitely make the podium if she skated clean (even if she rarely skates two clean programs)? Call me crazy, but my view is the latter. Even if Rachael skates her cleanest, she'll need others to make mistakes.

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Really? No offense to Alissa, but I don't think she could make any world podiums by herself even IF she skates clean--she needs quite a few mistakes from multiple top ladies like Kim, Asada, Rochette, Ando, Nakano and even Kostner if she wants to be anywhere near the podium. And really, even if skaters like Kim and Asada make one or two mistakes and Alissa skates clean I have a hard time ever imagining the judges putting Alissa over them.

Seriously, Alissa's personal best score ever was a 168.32, which would place her in 8th place at last year's worlds. Mao, with a popped jump in her SP and a fall and 4 downgrades in her LP at TEB last weekend, still scored 173.99. Alissa, as pretty a skater as she is, simply doesn't have the technical jumping power to put out monster scores even if she's squeaky clean--that's skaters like Carolina Kostner.

Penny said:

I attended Worlds in LA last year. It is so different seeing skaters live. I got both Rachael and Alyssa's autographs (while others were off chasing Yu-Na). Rachael is so pretty in real life--her skin and hair just glow--and her skating is more interesting to watch live, fast with good jumping ability, whereas Alyssa is so slow and her jumps so underrotated that her great spins and (slow) spiral cannot make up the difference.

I haven't totally given up on Caroline, since she is still so young, but after watching her (on TV) at the Paris grand prix, I have great doubts. SOMEONE WHO SKATES, please help me understand!!!!!!! Why can't she change the mule kick? Geez, just think about it and don't do it. I took piano lessons as a child and was pretty good, but gave it up for other things as an adult. I started piano lessons again a few years ago, with an excellent teacher who helped me change some bad technique that led to much better playing. So I know changing technique is possible.

Now, the other problem, the lack of speed. Again skaters, what is it? Is it lack of strong thigh muscles? Oh, I despair, she is so musical.

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I'm a professional musician too and was skating for 6 years when I was a teen. Now I'm trying to skate again and it's extreamely difficult to change my technic on 2T. I just end up doing it wrong way although I know how bad it is. I think it something to do with anxiousness and the habit of your body. It is different from technic on the musical instrument where you can try without fear to injure yourself or fall. I know I think about it from my point of view, but skaters like Caroline probably have additional issues like not wanting to miss any competition etc.

I wonder how Emily Hughes is doing.

I just saw the results for one of the regional competitions and she scored around 52 points for her SP which actually isn't too shabby. That said, I don't know how the scoring is like at national regional events like this, but maybe she's on the right track.

If she wants to be on the olympic team, 52 ain't gonna do it.

But you have to start somewhere I suppose. (More important is how she does in the freeskate.)

R.D. said:

If she wants to be on the olympic team, 52 ain't gonna do it.

But you have to start somewhere I suppose. (More important is how she does in the freeskate.)

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Well, yea it definitely won't do it. I am surprised that she did manage to get that score based on reports on how she was skating over the summer. I expected her to flop big time.

I guess we'll see. Hope you does respectably and makes it to nationals at least.

I think Rachael Flatt is our best hope this year. Of our ladies, she is best able to dependably deliver solid performances when the stakes are high, as shown by her fifth-place finish at Worlds. I am not excited about, nor inspired by, Rachael's skating, but no one can deny she's a very strong competitor.

I don't feel optimistic about the chances of the other U.S. women.

Caroline Zhang really didn't look good at all at TEB. She just has so many hurdles to overcome, what with her lack of speed and poor jumping technique. And, despite her lovely positions, she just doesn't seem to have a strong presence on the ice.

Mirai Nagasu is such a big question mark. After last season, it's just hard to imagine that she'll be able to recover her confidence and fix her underrotation problems sufficiently to succeed on the international level. I think she's the most talented of the current U.S. ladies, but I just don't know if she can pull it together in time for this season. Although switching to Frank Carroll is a step in the right direction.

Ashley Wagner seems to have both underrotation and consistency problems. Unless there's a really major improvement in her artistry this season, I just don't think she will be competitive.

I don't expect much out of Alissa Czisny either. Lovely skater, but Alissa had her shot last year at Worlds, and she blew it. Frankly, I think the only way the USFSA would name her to the Olympic team is if she had an absolutely perfect performance at Nationals, and we all know that's extremely unlikely.

It doesn't sound like Sasha Cohen is really back in competitive shape. I think she may well drop out before Skate America. That said, if she does make it to Nationals, she has an excellent shot at making the team based on her past success, the lack of alternatives, and of course her superlative artistry.

I think the Olympic team will be Flatt + Cohen. Or, if Cohen drops out, Flatt + Nagasu.

Penny said:

I haven't totally given up on Caroline, since she is still so young, but after watching her (on TV) at the Paris grand prix, I have great doubts. SOMEONE WHO SKATES, please help me understand!!!!!!! Why can't she change the mule kick? Geez, just think about it and don't do it.

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It's not as simple as that, if it was no-one would have bad technique! I agree completely witht he poster who said that the blame for allowing the mule kick must lie with the coaches now for letting her carry on with the poor technique. The reason it's so difficult to correct is because muscle memory is the hardest to correct, and even if you do manage to correct it, in pressure situations old muscle memory sometimes kicks in. The problem she has with picking technique would require a complete rework - right back to the single and building up to the double and triple with good technique. She would certainly lose the triple for at least a season if not two (look at Joannnie Rochette when she reworked her lutz).

That is a lot of time to take out of a skaters short career - worse so if the Olympics are coming up. The best time for Zhang to work on this would be at the end of this Olympic season - she'd have a couple of seasons to rework technique and then come out fighting for the pre Olympic season.

Penny said:

Now, the other problem, the lack of speed. Again skaters, what is it? Is it lack of strong thigh muscles? Oh, I despair, she is so musical.

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Most things in skating are rarely about raw muscle but much more about technique. For speed it is about using your edges, lean, correct stroking and knee bend and flexing. That is what generates power and speed.

Ant

Thanks, Ant, especially about the insights on speed. I've taken ballet and know how hard it is to master correct technique and to fix bad technique, but good teachers insist on it. At 16, I think Caroline should just stop and fix it; her chances of getting to Vancouver are small, and if she does go, her chances of medaling are nil. Of course, maybe she just doesn't have the spring for jumping and never will.

Caroline has lovely lines, like Sasha, but her jumps are just so teeny, and yes that mulekick has to go.
I can't wait to see what Ashley does this weekend. She's quite dynamic.

i am not going to back down--they are discrimnatory against carolina zhang--fans, and everyone else it hoping and holding her down.

HER JUMPS HEIGHT HAS IMPROVEd-she does need to speed up a bit--but no more than ususal, she doesn't pre-rotate.
ALEXE Was overmarked at TEB.
so was yu-na even though she skated well, they didn't mark her two urs in the long and her ur combo in the short triple/triple.
maos was about right--trying to hard-she doesn't make it look easy.
yukari-program was a bore to me and a bit over marked.
as of now--the US GOT WHAT IT wanted Rachel will be overmarked as well as the white us skaters. make no doubt about it.
teb proved me right all along--
carolilne zhang hs to skate perfect--other white skaters can screw up and get scores that are overinflated as usual--the same old same old. from usfsa to isu.

until they change I WILL NOT BUY AND ENDOrSe ANG OLY MEdALIST ANd continue to spread the word not to buy the products-because of cheating and also because once the medalist endorse a product the price goes up. so i will not be a party to it and make sure family and friends, co-workers know the reason.

Kitt said:

I can't wait to see what Ashley does this weekend. She's quite dynamic.

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Wagner said in her latest vlog that she arrived in Russia safely and smoothly, and that things are going well (so far).

no--rachel cant only if they cheat--which they will for her.

fairly4 said:

i am not going to back down--they are discrimnatory against carolina zhang--fans, and everyone else it hoping and holding her down.

HER JUMPS HEIGHT HAS IMPROVEd-she does need to speed up a bit--but no more than ususal, she doesn't pre-rotate.
ALEXE Was overmarked at TEB.
so was yu-na even though she skated well, they didn't mark her two urs in the long and her ur combo in the short triple/triple.
maos was about right--trying to hard-she doesn't make it look easy.
yukari-program was a bore to me and a bit over marked.
as of now--the US GOT WHAT IT wanted Rachel will be overmarked as well as the white us skaters. make no doubt about it.
teb proved me right all along--
carolilne zhang hs to skate perfect--other white skaters can screw up and get scores that are overinflated as usual--the same old same old. from usfsa to isu.

until they change I WILL NOT BUY AND ENDOrSe ANG OLY MEdALIST ANd continue to spread the word not to buy the products-because of cheating and also because once the medalist endorse a product the price goes up. so i will not be a party to it and make sure family and friends, co-workers know the reason.

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:boohoo:

Rachael and Mirai will be the best bet, they have the most complete package among all the candidates and better consistency than the other ladies. Caroline is fairly consistent and her spins are amazing, but her awful speed and jump technique are killing her chance. Alissa has strong PCS, but doesn't have reliable triples, if she can't fix the jumps by nationals, she won't go. Ashley and Alexe could be the dark horses, although the chances are slim. Sasha, I won't say anything till I see her at Skate America.

Perhaps the US girls will all step up at Nationals and surprise us. Right now it seems to be anyones game. Nobody really sings except Sasha and Im beginning to worry she won't show.

antmanb said:

Most things in skating are rarely about raw muscle but much more about technique. For speed it is about using your edges, lean, correct stroking and knee bend and flexing. That is what generates power and speed.

Ant

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I agree with you! Maybe if she had more speed, she could volt herself into the air with a simple pick, rather than having to raise her leg so high to pick the ice... sometimes I fear she will lose balance and fall flat in her face =/

Zhang's jumps are incredibly lacking. They have Tara Lipinski height, without the brilliant rotation Tara acheived.

Zhang barely jumps in her jumps. She winds her body up and then pre-rotates like mad on the ice to achieve her jumps. It is simply ugly. Her Triple Loop looks okay (although still quite lacking) because that's kind of how you execute that jump anyway (the wind up and skid off the ice), but the rest of her jumps are the lowest quality I've ever seen from a skater who wants to be taken seriously as a Senior competitor.

She didn't even do the 3-3 at TEB, which was the only saving grace she had in her jump arsenal (the few times she was able to rotate it sufficiently).

Hikaru said:

I agree with you! Maybe if she had more speed, she could volt herself into the air with a simple pick, rather than having to raise her leg so high to pick the ice... sometimes I fear she will lose balance and fall flat in her face =/

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Actually, when you kick above your knee to pick like that, you are losing momentum as opposed to generating a good jump or creating lift. If she would reach back and vault off the non-picking leg instead of using the hammer toe technique, even with less speed she could achieve greater height. The most unfortunate part is, that this technique likely feels "right" to her and so fixing it would be a conscious effort on her part and likely incredibly difficult when skating programs since she's done it this way so long. This could have been corrected back when learning doubles/triples but would have required not moving up levels as quickly (maybe spending an extra year in Juvenile, Intermediate, or Novice).

I've seen skaters who have relearned corrected technique be able to regain triples once they pass the growth spurt stage - one who has reached the relatively tall height for a skater of 5'7".

Zhang had a disappointed and pissed off reaction to her scores at TEB and when interviewed about what she needed to work on she seemed to not realize it was her jumps and her speed. If she doesn't think they are a problem and her coach does not help her realize this and she doesn't consult with judges then she will not improve and will not be a competitor. She has gotten a bit speedier but going into her jumps she practically stops and has no momentum. The mule kick obscures the takeoff and the jumps are eensy teensy, lower than any junior. And she doesn't get it. The spins are to die for but there's more to it than that.

I think it's going to be between Mirai and Ashley and Rachel. Actually I think it will be Rachel and someone else. Sasha is a long shot. Then again, it is ice we're talking about lol.