Last year, after Skate America and Skate Canada, I did an analysis of the chances of making the Grand Prix Finale for everyone who had skated so far in all four disciplines. This year I'm ignoring the existence of the men for the moment, but with two events once again gone by I'll analyze the other three. 21 ladies have competed so far and we have a couple of would-be contenders already knocked out. The prospects so far:
Trophée Eric Bombard Top Four:
1. Yu-Na Kim-need only medal at Skate America, and it'll be a shock if she doesn't win that.
2. Mao Asada-both events done, with only 5th in the Rostelecom Cup she's out.
3. Yukari Nakano-To make it certain, she'd need to win the NHK Trophy. It would be very difficult for her to beat Miki Ando, but it wouldn't be impossible. She might not have a bad chance with silver, though, especially if Miki does win, and also if Joannie Rochette wins both of her events, splitting the golds between three ladies and making it easier to qualify with only silver and bronze. However, she is threatened by Ashley Wagner, Alena Leonova, Sarah Meier, and Laura Lepisto, and while not all of the above have the highest chance of beating her, if any one of them does as well as Miki she's out.
4. Caroline Zhang-To have a chance she'd have to win Skate Canada, and I don't see her beating Joannie. She could also hope for silver and for things to fall a very certain way, but even then I think her scores would put her behind anyone else with 2nd and 4th, and that would also require her to beat Meier, Lepisto, Akiko Suzuki, Mirai Nagasu, and Alissa Czisny, and though she could beat some of them, it doesn't seem likely she'll beat them all.
Rostelecom Cup Top Four:
1. Miki Ando-Need only medal at NHK Trophy, which, as noted above, she's favored to win. It's not impossible, however, that Yukari, or even Ashley Wagner or Alena Leonova could beat her. However, for all three to do it, I suspect she'd have to skate very badly. So long as she skates decently, she's in.
2. Ashley Wagner-Mathematically would need to win NHK, and that she didn't beat Miki here says too much. Would probably be fine with silver, for which she would have to beat Yukari, and the four mentioned as challenging her, which she may or may not do, depending on how they all skate. If she can hold off three of them, however, she can take bronze and then it's as the chips fall. She needs to skate clean and cross her fingers.
3. Alena Leonova-Very similar situation to Yukari, though it might be a little harder for her to beat both her and Ashley to the silver, as well as to hold off Meier and Lepisto
4. Alissa Czisny-Like Zhang, she'd probably need to win Skate Canada, and while she has the talent necessary to beat Joannie, it would take a reversal of normal behavior for both ladies. If she can hold it together enough, she might have a higher chance than Zhang at silver.
Knocked out the race, but still at the other events:
Carolina Kostner-6th at Trophée Eric Bombard, could mix things up at Cup of China
Sasha Cohen-withdrew from Trophée Eric Bombard, but could easily mix it up at Skate America if she makes it there
Julia Sebesyten-6th at Rostelecom Cup, but showed the potential to mix things up below Yu-Na at Skate America
Elene Gedvanishvilli-7th at Trophée Eric Bombard, but in the relatively shallow field of Skate America might still mix things up
Kiira Korphi-8th at Trophée Eric Bombard, probably won't mix things up at Cup of China, but you never know
Contenders yet to skate:
Joannie Rochette
Rachael Flatt
Mirai Nagasu
Fumie Suguri
Sarah Meier
Laura Lepisto
The last three(or even the last four) would need some luck, but with Carolina and Mao both out they've all got at least an outside shot.
Trophée Eric Bombard Top Four:
1. Yu-Na Kim-need only medal at Skate America, and it'll be a shock if she doesn't win that.
2. Mao Asada-both events done, with only 5th in the Rostelecom Cup she's out.
3. Yukari Nakano-To make it certain, she'd need to win the NHK Trophy. It would be very difficult for her to beat Miki Ando, but it wouldn't be impossible. She might not have a bad chance with silver, though, especially if Miki does win, and also if Joannie Rochette wins both of her events, splitting the golds between three ladies and making it easier to qualify with only silver and bronze. However, she is threatened by Ashley Wagner, Alena Leonova, Sarah Meier, and Laura Lepisto, and while not all of the above have the highest chance of beating her, if any one of them does as well as Miki she's out.
4. Caroline Zhang-To have a chance she'd have to win Skate Canada, and I don't see her beating Joannie. She could also hope for silver and for things to fall a very certain way, but even then I think her scores would put her behind anyone else with 2nd and 4th, and that would also require her to beat Meier, Lepisto, Akiko Suzuki, Mirai Nagasu, and Alissa Czisny, and though she could beat some of them, it doesn't seem likely she'll beat them all.
Rostelecom Cup Top Four:
1. Miki Ando-Need only medal at NHK Trophy, which, as noted above, she's favored to win. It's not impossible, however, that Yukari, or even Ashley Wagner or Alena Leonova could beat her. However, for all three to do it, I suspect she'd have to skate very badly. So long as she skates decently, she's in.
2. Ashley Wagner-Mathematically would need to win NHK, and that she didn't beat Miki here says too much. Would probably be fine with silver, for which she would have to beat Yukari, and the four mentioned as challenging her, which she may or may not do, depending on how they all skate. If she can hold off three of them, however, she can take bronze and then it's as the chips fall. She needs to skate clean and cross her fingers.
3. Alena Leonova-Very similar situation to Yukari, though it might be a little harder for her to beat both her and Ashley to the silver, as well as to hold off Meier and Lepisto
4. Alissa Czisny-Like Zhang, she'd probably need to win Skate Canada, and while she has the talent necessary to beat Joannie, it would take a reversal of normal behavior for both ladies. If she can hold it together enough, she might have a higher chance than Zhang at silver.
Knocked out the race, but still at the other events:
Carolina Kostner-6th at Trophée Eric Bombard, could mix things up at Cup of China
Sasha Cohen-withdrew from Trophée Eric Bombard, but could easily mix it up at Skate America if she makes it there
Julia Sebesyten-6th at Rostelecom Cup, but showed the potential to mix things up below Yu-Na at Skate America
Elene Gedvanishvilli-7th at Trophée Eric Bombard, but in the relatively shallow field of Skate America might still mix things up
Kiira Korphi-8th at Trophée Eric Bombard, probably won't mix things up at Cup of China, but you never know
Contenders yet to skate:
Joannie Rochette
Rachael Flatt
Mirai Nagasu
Fumie Suguri
Sarah Meier
Laura Lepisto
The last three(or even the last four) would need some luck, but with Carolina and Mao both out they've all got at least an outside shot.
