Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style (Updated Periodically With Articles)
So folks-
It's practically December now. Less than two months to go until U.S. Nationals. Two Olympic spots at stake, more than twice as many contenders. So, where does everyone stand at this cross-roads? Let's start with the Contenders:
CONTENDERS:
Flatt. Her usual rock-solid consistency took a little break earlier in China, where she struggled a bit and finished OTP. Then, in Skate America, she skated a decent SP (even though she took a rare fall on her 3-3). She skated a solid FS to a standing O and put the pressure on Yuna, the last skater (who had a rough outing). She was able to top Yuna in the FS with a really strong score (116) and finished 2nd overall. So the questions are: Is there much room for improvement after SA? Can she max out the points even when she's off? Has she peaked too soon after that freeskate? I think she has clearly set herself up as the front-runner for an Oly spot. Her 5th place finish at worlds shows that she can hang in there and even though she's probably not competitive for an Oly medal except in a "Sarah Hughes" situation, she will likely be the highest finishing American in Vancouver.
What about Nationals? Stay on your feet, really perform your SP to try to get as much of a head-start as possible. I think she is starting to gain some "rep points" from the int'l judges so this might help give her an edge.
Wagner. The dark horse in all this. She surprised most of us by placing a solid 2nd in Russia, then went to Japan with the chance to win the event but slipped and wound up in 3rd. Both her medal finishes were enough to qualify her for the Final, and she is the only American lady heading to the event. So the questions are: How will she do in the GPF? Will her standing there help or hurt her momentum going into Nats? Can she rotate her jumps, and more importantly, does she have the stamina to perform that back-loaded program? I keep saying, if she is on, I think she will be a genuine threat for the US championship. I wouldn't imagine anyone other than Rachel being able to beat her. She still struggles with consistency issues, but all it takes is that right skate at the right time.
What about Nationals? Learn from last year- she cannot afford to make silly mistakes in the SP. She needs to exude that same confidence she expressed in that NYT article. And- most importantly- avoid UR calls.
Czisny. Oh, Alyssa...people wanted you to give up a while ago and here you are, still persisting. Czisny usually tends to peak early in the season, doing really well in the summer events and early GP events, then it's downhill from there. However, while she is still inconsistent, I do think she has gotten better over the years. No more 4-fall freeskate- she usually keeps the falling (and jumping!) to a minimum now. She finished OTP in Russia, but skated a solid SP in Canada and hung on for 2nd. If anything, she is out to prove that her US title wasn't a fluke. She had a chance at the Olympic team in 2006 but has an even better, bigger chance in 2010. This is a HUGE opportunity for Alyssa and Spokane, her 8th (?) senior nationals, could be the biggest one of her career. If she makes the Oly team what an inspiration she will be to all the 2nd-tier US skaters- to never give up and just keep improving and hanging in there.
So- what about Nationals? Repeat your SC SP at Nationals and you're in good shape- you should have the lead once again going into the FS. Focus on delivering a clean (or 1-fall) LP and your Oly chances should be fairly decent. But Alyssa has proved time and time again that she cannot handle the pressure and as the reigning Champ, I think she will crumble (just like in 2006). But I do wish her the best.
Nagasu. Well, well. Mirai is the one that I picked as potential spoiler at the beginning of the season- when she's at her best I don't think any American can beat her. Or so I thought. She did reasonably well in China, or so it appeared- she STILL gets hammered for her jumps. in Canada she skated a very cautious FS but finished barely OTP. I keep saying that if she can fix her jumps, then I think she's "The One" because she seems to have the mental game down (I mean, crying before your FS and still nailing it??). Still, one gets the impression that she is aiming more for 2014 than 2010 (or at least her coach is). Those UR calls will continue to really keep her from being as good as she could be. But it remains to be seen whether the status quo will be good enough to get on the 2010 team. Plus, she really needs a confidence booster. She's never sure of herself and I think it's starting to come across in her performances (SC LP was really bland, I thought). Be like Wagner!
What about Nationals? For her it's quite simple: Fix those jumps. Get some confidence. That's it.
Zhang. Probably the biggest surprise for many, as coming into this season many folks already had her name written on the Olympic team roster. This GP season seems to have really taken its toll on her mentally, and physically too. Perhaps she needs a break? Anyway, she started off ok at TEB, finishing a respectable 4th in a really tough field, although she didn't seem to be happy with her FS scores. Then we all know what happened at SC- she seemed to hit rock bottom. She needs a major turnaround to become a contender again, otherwise she might find herself behind some 2nd-tier skaters at Nats. As for her so-called "mule-kick" jump technique, that would take at LEAST a couple of years to fix (if it can be fixed at all). So doing that now is out of the question. She is also another one that could use some confidence but I'm more worried about her than I am about Nagasu. I don't think that confidence will come until she starts getting the scores she wants, and that's not going to happen unless she overhauls her jump technique and/or seriously raises the level of the rest of her skating to make up the point difference (like last year at 4CC's).
What about Nationals? Well, I'm not too sure what to say about Caroline here- she needs help, and FAST if she wants to make the Olympic team. Her lethargic showing at SC isn't really going to help matters much, though...I do fear that she has let her best shot at being an Olympian slip right away and quite frankly I don't think she'll get another chance in 2014.
OTHER:
Gilles. She surprised me (and many others, I think) at TEB by really coming out and showing her own, hanging tough with the "big leaguers" like Asada and Kim. I think this season will be a learning experience for her and I do not have her up in the "Contenders" section because I do not think 2010 is her time. It might be 2014, or she may peak sometime in the middle of the 2014 cycle- or she could move on to other things in life. Her SA performance was a complete disaster for her.
Hughes. Em has shown a lot of determination and fight (IMO) in taking time off college to come back and try for her 2nd Olympic team. Judging by her performance at SA, she's got a looooong way to go. But the framework IS there for a potential shocker if she can get her jumps back. Unfortunately, I don't think two months is enough time for her to do so and get back to the level she was once at. But I do have to admire her courage and willingness to just go for it and not be afraid of failure.
Liang and Bereswill. They had GP events this year (IIRC?), the former has been to Worlds before and can boast a top 10 worlds finish. But she is way too inconsistent and only got to Worlds that year because so many above her were not old enough to go. I bet she has her own goals this Nationals; if she is ambitious, one of them would be making the Oly team but I don't see it happening even under the best of circumstances (for her). If by some miracle she got in the top 2 I think she will be passed over for someone with more international experience anyway. As for Bereswill...well, hometown girl
not too much else to say though.
Cohen. A no-show, as expected. While various articles are hyping her excitement for Nationals, insider reports strongly indicate that her comeback attempt is not going to work out for her.
___________________
So that's my take. What's yours? I think this US Nats is going to be one of the most exciting in a long time- for me, since 2005.
So folks-
It's practically December now. Less than two months to go until U.S. Nationals. Two Olympic spots at stake, more than twice as many contenders. So, where does everyone stand at this cross-roads? Let's start with the Contenders:
CONTENDERS:
Flatt. Her usual rock-solid consistency took a little break earlier in China, where she struggled a bit and finished OTP. Then, in Skate America, she skated a decent SP (even though she took a rare fall on her 3-3). She skated a solid FS to a standing O and put the pressure on Yuna, the last skater (who had a rough outing). She was able to top Yuna in the FS with a really strong score (116) and finished 2nd overall. So the questions are: Is there much room for improvement after SA? Can she max out the points even when she's off? Has she peaked too soon after that freeskate? I think she has clearly set herself up as the front-runner for an Oly spot. Her 5th place finish at worlds shows that she can hang in there and even though she's probably not competitive for an Oly medal except in a "Sarah Hughes" situation, she will likely be the highest finishing American in Vancouver.
What about Nationals? Stay on your feet, really perform your SP to try to get as much of a head-start as possible. I think she is starting to gain some "rep points" from the int'l judges so this might help give her an edge.
Wagner. The dark horse in all this. She surprised most of us by placing a solid 2nd in Russia, then went to Japan with the chance to win the event but slipped and wound up in 3rd. Both her medal finishes were enough to qualify her for the Final, and she is the only American lady heading to the event. So the questions are: How will she do in the GPF? Will her standing there help or hurt her momentum going into Nats? Can she rotate her jumps, and more importantly, does she have the stamina to perform that back-loaded program? I keep saying, if she is on, I think she will be a genuine threat for the US championship. I wouldn't imagine anyone other than Rachel being able to beat her. She still struggles with consistency issues, but all it takes is that right skate at the right time.
What about Nationals? Learn from last year- she cannot afford to make silly mistakes in the SP. She needs to exude that same confidence she expressed in that NYT article. And- most importantly- avoid UR calls.
Czisny. Oh, Alyssa...people wanted you to give up a while ago and here you are, still persisting. Czisny usually tends to peak early in the season, doing really well in the summer events and early GP events, then it's downhill from there. However, while she is still inconsistent, I do think she has gotten better over the years. No more 4-fall freeskate- she usually keeps the falling (and jumping!) to a minimum now. She finished OTP in Russia, but skated a solid SP in Canada and hung on for 2nd. If anything, she is out to prove that her US title wasn't a fluke. She had a chance at the Olympic team in 2006 but has an even better, bigger chance in 2010. This is a HUGE opportunity for Alyssa and Spokane, her 8th (?) senior nationals, could be the biggest one of her career. If she makes the Oly team what an inspiration she will be to all the 2nd-tier US skaters- to never give up and just keep improving and hanging in there.
So- what about Nationals? Repeat your SC SP at Nationals and you're in good shape- you should have the lead once again going into the FS. Focus on delivering a clean (or 1-fall) LP and your Oly chances should be fairly decent. But Alyssa has proved time and time again that she cannot handle the pressure and as the reigning Champ, I think she will crumble (just like in 2006). But I do wish her the best.
Nagasu. Well, well. Mirai is the one that I picked as potential spoiler at the beginning of the season- when she's at her best I don't think any American can beat her. Or so I thought. She did reasonably well in China, or so it appeared- she STILL gets hammered for her jumps. in Canada she skated a very cautious FS but finished barely OTP. I keep saying that if she can fix her jumps, then I think she's "The One" because she seems to have the mental game down (I mean, crying before your FS and still nailing it??). Still, one gets the impression that she is aiming more for 2014 than 2010 (or at least her coach is). Those UR calls will continue to really keep her from being as good as she could be. But it remains to be seen whether the status quo will be good enough to get on the 2010 team. Plus, she really needs a confidence booster. She's never sure of herself and I think it's starting to come across in her performances (SC LP was really bland, I thought). Be like Wagner!
What about Nationals? For her it's quite simple: Fix those jumps. Get some confidence. That's it.
Zhang. Probably the biggest surprise for many, as coming into this season many folks already had her name written on the Olympic team roster. This GP season seems to have really taken its toll on her mentally, and physically too. Perhaps she needs a break? Anyway, she started off ok at TEB, finishing a respectable 4th in a really tough field, although she didn't seem to be happy with her FS scores. Then we all know what happened at SC- she seemed to hit rock bottom. She needs a major turnaround to become a contender again, otherwise she might find herself behind some 2nd-tier skaters at Nats. As for her so-called "mule-kick" jump technique, that would take at LEAST a couple of years to fix (if it can be fixed at all). So doing that now is out of the question. She is also another one that could use some confidence but I'm more worried about her than I am about Nagasu. I don't think that confidence will come until she starts getting the scores she wants, and that's not going to happen unless she overhauls her jump technique and/or seriously raises the level of the rest of her skating to make up the point difference (like last year at 4CC's).
What about Nationals? Well, I'm not too sure what to say about Caroline here- she needs help, and FAST if she wants to make the Olympic team. Her lethargic showing at SC isn't really going to help matters much, though...I do fear that she has let her best shot at being an Olympian slip right away and quite frankly I don't think she'll get another chance in 2014.
OTHER:
Gilles. She surprised me (and many others, I think) at TEB by really coming out and showing her own, hanging tough with the "big leaguers" like Asada and Kim. I think this season will be a learning experience for her and I do not have her up in the "Contenders" section because I do not think 2010 is her time. It might be 2014, or she may peak sometime in the middle of the 2014 cycle- or she could move on to other things in life. Her SA performance was a complete disaster for her.
Hughes. Em has shown a lot of determination and fight (IMO) in taking time off college to come back and try for her 2nd Olympic team. Judging by her performance at SA, she's got a looooong way to go. But the framework IS there for a potential shocker if she can get her jumps back. Unfortunately, I don't think two months is enough time for her to do so and get back to the level she was once at. But I do have to admire her courage and willingness to just go for it and not be afraid of failure.
Liang and Bereswill. They had GP events this year (IIRC?), the former has been to Worlds before and can boast a top 10 worlds finish. But she is way too inconsistent and only got to Worlds that year because so many above her were not old enough to go. I bet she has her own goals this Nationals; if she is ambitious, one of them would be making the Oly team but I don't see it happening even under the best of circumstances (for her). If by some miracle she got in the top 2 I think she will be passed over for someone with more international experience anyway. As for Bereswill...well, hometown girl
not too much else to say though.Cohen. A no-show, as expected. While various articles are hyping her excitement for Nationals, insider reports strongly indicate that her comeback attempt is not going to work out for her.
___________________
So that's my take. What's yours? I think this US Nats is going to be one of the most exciting in a long time- for me, since 2005.
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I just wanted to point out that she URs less than she used to 
