LADIES- Japanese Nationals (Senior) | Page 26 | Golden Skate

LADIES- Japanese Nationals (Senior)

enlight78

Medalist
Joined
Nov 2, 2005
Im sure that Mao would be able to equal her 75+ score she got from World Team Trophey with international judges if she goes clean; I don't if she got higher levels or goe or pcs but 73 just seems off.
 

Phoenix347

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 24, 2009
WTT is considered a bit of a cheesefest and it is generally accepted that the scores were a bit inflated. For example, Mao was awarded level 4 for her step sequence. This almost never happens in the ladies competition and it's rare even in the men's. Not only that but she got 1.80 GOE for the step sequence and her flying sit spin... which she never has before and never has again. Let's just say that her SP score there was a bit inflated.

I did an analysis of Ando's scoring possibilities. I gave her best positive GOE + a bit more from the past couple of season and gave her non-jump elements all level 4 except for layback spin which she never seem to do very well so I gave her a level 3 just to be realistic. Here's the layout:

ando.png


As you can see, her scoring potential is not quite as good as Mao's. Also, she hasn't done a clean 3Lz+3Lo since the 2007 World championship and there she only got 0.8 GOE for it. I was quite generous with the GOE's and even gave her a bit extra PCS than she usually gets.

I'll do Rochette later.

Edit: Although the max points potentials for all these ladies seem very high, remember that Yuna actually score over 210 points at 2009 TEB even with a 3F skipped and couple of level 3 elements.
 
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Phoenix347

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 24, 2009
Here's Rochette's scoring potential if she goes super clean and get lots of GOE and get all level 4's except for step sequence:

rochette.png


Interesting, isn't it?
 

oleada

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 27, 2007
Well, Rochette has never landed a 3Lz+3T in competition. Miki at least has landed the 3Lz+3Lo and had it ratified, albeit not recently.
I enjoy your analysis though.
 

Marrymeyunakim

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 4, 2009
Thanks for that, Phoenix. Very interesting. :)

Even though I think Kim will be good in Vancouver, I just have a sneaking suspicion that Mao Asada is gaining momentum at the right time. Kim has faltered in pressure cookers before, and she might do so at Vancouver... she is definitely not unbeatable.
 

artsciboy

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 23, 2004
Here's Rochette's scoring potential if she goes super clean and get lots of GOE and get all level 4's except for step sequence:

rochette.png


Interesting, isn't it?

Very interesting. However, for her FS analysis, you have her listed as doing three 3toes, which is not allowed. The 2axel-3toe should really be a 2a-2a sequence.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
I read through this at dead of night, so I might have been dreaming. Are you telling me that Mao won? Awesome! And that Suzuki is on the Olympic team? Wow. I linked to the Olympic team presentation one of you supplied, and it certainly seems that in the individual disciplines, Japan has THE killer team. Imagine--Oda and Takahashi on one team, not to mention two former ladies' world champions, plus one of the most appealing skaters of the year, Suzuki. Dare I hope that Asada will be at her peak in Vancouver? It would be great if the finalists in the ladies' competition skated to the level of the two Brians in 1988, or Kwan and Lipinski in 1998, or Kerrigan and Baiul in 1994--or, to cross sports, Sampras and Agassi in their last U.S. Open a few years ago. I want the outcome to be a narrow judgment call that people are still arguing over ten years from now, not the result of a splatfest where the winner is the only one left standing because she took fewer chances than everyone else.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Well, Rochette has never landed a 3Lz+3T in competition. Miki at least has landed the 3Lz+3Lo and had it ratified, albeit not recently.
I enjoy your analysis though.

Miki does gorgeous 3lz-3lo in practice all the time though, including at the GPF and Japanese Nats. We at least know she CAN do that combination whereas Joannie we have yet to see her try even 3lz-3t in practice. But wow, those scores are really high! And between the four of them, scoring potential is very close. I really hope everyone does great because if so the results will be very interesting and exciting!
 

MikiAndoFan#1

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 30, 2009
Thank you, Phoenix347! Can you do a scoring potencial for Carolina Kostner? With 3F+3T in both SP and LP and a 2A+3T?

Thanks!
 
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herro

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 17, 2009
Thanks so much Phoenix347! Although it's hypothetical, I enjoy your analysis so much. It's interesting that even after giving GOE and PCS boosts, Joannie and Miki can score the same or even better than Mao. I somehow hope that Mao's coaching staff could see this. :laugh: Yes, triple axels make history, but is it as good as an OGM which can define your whole career...

But I bet many teams do this sort of thing already though. I wish I were as knowledgeable about the system as you are! :agree:
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
Thanks so much Phoenix347! Although it's hypothetical, I enjoy your analysis so much. It's interesting that even after giving GOE and PCS boosts, Joannie and Miki can score the same or even better than Mao. I somehow hope that Mao's coaching staff could see this. :laugh: Yes, triple axels make history, but is it as good as an OGM which can define your whole career...

But I bet many teams do this sort of thing already though. I wish I were as knowledgeable about the system as you are! :agree:

I think the focus on triple axels is also influenced by the Japanese media. From the interviews with Mao, it seems to be main thing everyone is interested is if she can land her 3As. This also goes back to Midori Ito who is known for landing the first 3A in competition. Ito is Mao's idol, so it's natural that Mao wants to follow her idol's footsteps in breaking a record. Also, Mao kinda became famous for being a young skater that can land 3As, so it's understandable that she is frustrated that she is having problems with something that kinda distinguished her among others in the past. This is my guess but I have a sneaking suspicion that Mao's team probably only concentrate on Yuna so that's why they may overlook the potential scores of the other competitors. I think this works vice versa. Although Yuna says there are other competitors, she knows her biggest rival is Mao because the last time she lost was to Mao and you bet Yuna remembers that.
 

bluelutz

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 23, 2003
Other Girls

Some of other girls' performances are up on YouTube.

Shion Kokubun SP (SP 16th/FS 14th/ 14th)
Eastern Sectionals 1st
She won at Golden Spin right before this competition.
18 yeras old

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raXVrAp7eM4

Satsuki Muramoto SP (SP 17th/FS 12th/ 13th)
Western Sectionals 1st
As her coach is Yukina Ota's ex-coach, Hamada,
her style reminds me of Yukina's though she has jumps only up to 3Lp.
19 years old

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlcOL_GrIdw

Ayumi Goto FS (SP 8th/FS 8th/ 8th)
Western Sectionals 2nd
A New Girl from Nagoya city where so many other great skaters are from,
Her coach is Nagakubo, who is Akiko's coach and also Shizuka's ex-coach.
16 years old

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbVfTHSaP1c

Haruka Imai FS (SP 7th/FS 6th/ 6th)
Junior Nationals 2nd
Last season's Junior Champ.
15 years old

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbTRJodMvGw
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I think the focus on triple axels is also influenced by the Japanese media. From the interviews with Mao, it seems to be main thing everyone is interested is if she can land her 3As. This also goes back to Midori Ito who is known for landing the first 3A in competition. Ito is Mao's idol, so it's natural that Mao wants to follow her idol's footsteps in breaking a record. Also, Mao kinda became famous for being a young skater that can land 3As, so it's understandable that she is frustrated that she is having problems with something that kinda distinguished her among others in the past. This is my guess but I have a sneaking suspicion that Mao's team probably only concentrate on Yuna so that's why they may overlook the potential scores of the other competitors. I think this works vice versa. Although Yuna says there are other competitors, she knows her biggest rival is Mao because the last time she lost was to Mao and you bet Yuna remembers that.

Good analysis. You are right. Miki and Joannie, even Carolina, have always been contenders for Olympic medals, but I feel like they fly under the radar a little more than Mao because of Mao's huge name and competitive record, even though recently, others have been outperforming her in competition. I tend to the if the GPF 2008 was not in Korea Yuna would have won though....
 
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