WHICH U.S. Lady will place higher at the Olympics?

Ok, so the wait for the Olympic team is finally over. The US ladies team will be Rachel Flatt and Mirai Nagasu, with Ashley Wagner as the alternate. Which one do you think will place higher in Vancouver and why? Also, in the unfortunate event that one of the ladies must pull out, I have included poll options that include our alternate.

Keep in mind that this poll is about who will place higher than the other, regardless of whether it is a podium finish or not.

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I say Rachel will place higher simply because she is able to fully rotate her jumps. Both are good LP skaters, but Nagasu has struggled with UR calls and I think that could hurt her. A top 10 finish shouldn't be out of reach for her though.

Nice poll. Difficult to call. I voted for Mirai. I should know better than to underestimate Rachael by now. But I believe in Mirai.

the olympics tend to do weird things to those that are most competitively sound in the eyes of the fans... so I'm thinking Mirai might "pull an upset"

Tonichelle said:

the olympics tend to do weird things to those that are most competitively sound in the eyes of the fans... so I'm thinking Mirai might "pull an upset"

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True, it's been awhile since the favorite even won. Maybe we have to go back to Oksana Baiul? Although Tara and Michelle were kind of co-favorites and they at least finished 1-2 as predicted.

In Torino, the top three favorites were also in the podium, although most people though Irina or Sasha would win.

Mirai and Rachael both have the advantage that nothing is expected of them. I think they will be under less pressure than at they were at nationals. And at nationals they handled it amazingly well. I expected it from Rachel but I was floored that Mirai pull out such a secure program skating last and all.

Still, the Olympics is a whole different ball game and Mirai has never even been to a senior worlds. The last time I can remember that happening was Sasha in 2002. She finished fourth. Can anyone remember anyone medaling at the Olympics without even having gone to the Olympics?
In the last three Olympics (at least) the three medalists had been world medalists. Can anyone remember the last time someone won an Olympic medal without having won a world medal?

Also, is this the first time in history that the U.S. is sending a women's team to the Olympics that includes no world medalists?

(Edit: Oh wait, Paul Wylie won silver without having been a world medalist. So I'm narrowing down my question to the women.)

It seems like the last time a lady has medalled at the Olympics prior to medalling at Worlds was Liz Manley in 1988.

when I said "upset" I meant placing ahead of Rachel, not make the podium I'm more realistic than that!

I think and hope that Mirai will place higher. She's an amazing skater!! Maybe we'll see a free program without DG from her

I vote Rachael!
http://worldskating.blogspot.com

Vlad said:

I vote Rachael!
http://worldskating.blogspot.com

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I voted for Racheal as well - can't believe the vote is a tie!

I think Flatt will place higher, because she's much more consistent, but if Wagner goes, she's a stronger skater, so I can see her on top.

Layfan said:

Although Tara and Michelle were kind of co-favorites and they at least finished 1-2 as predicted.

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I still think Yuna is one to beat but this year I think Rachel is more than a dark horse. She is competitive, well trained and she gets the job done every single time out. If Yuna doesn't skate her lights out, Rachel is most poised to be the new Tara, or Liz Manley who won the free to take the silver. Akkiko has the similar characteristics so I put her as the real legitimate dark horse. Miki (she couldn't step up to the plate when Yuna was less than her best at the GPF), Mao, Joanne have all been hot and cold. Mirai is not there technically yet. And I can't see any European ladies being a real contender.

aurora100 said:

I still think Yuna is one to beat but this year I think Rachel is more than a dark horse. She is competitive, well trained and she gets the job done every single time out. If Yuna doesn't skate her lights out, Rachel is most poised to be the new Tara, or Liz Manley who won the free to take the silver. Akkiko has the similar characteristics so I put her as the real legitimate dark horse. Miki (she couldn't step up to the plate when Yuna was less than her best at the GPF), Mao, Joanne have all been hot and cold. Mirai is not there technically yet. And I can't see any European ladies being a real contender.

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That's a pretty bold prediction If Rachael wins the gold medal it would probably count as the biggest upset if figure skating history. One of the biggest in plain old Olympic history. People can correct me if I'm wrong but I dont' think any lady has won the OGM without having won so much as a world bronze before. So Rachael would even unseat Sarah Hughes for biggest upset.

Tara Lipinski was the reigning world champion when she won the OGM. Even if a lot of people bet on Michelle, Tara was definitely considered a gold medal contender. Even a co-favorite.

If Rachael wins, she will not be the new Tara. She'll just be .... Rachael!

What you said about Miki Ando applies to Flatt. Rachael couldn't beat Kim Yuna for the gold at SA even when Kim had one of the worst LPs of her senior career. So, I'd like to see the epic Yuna meltdown it would take for Rachael Flatt to win the gold over her. Well, no I would NOT like to see it. But you know what I mean...

However, your assessment is interesting. And it would be quite a story. It would be the story of the Olympics, that's for sure. And the ice is slippery. So anything is possible.

There have been times this year when I've been tempted to say that Rachael had become a definite medal contender and not just a dark horse because of the way Rochette, Ando and Mao's seasons have been going ... but I'm not there yet.