Podium Predictions | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Podium Predictions

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
I can imagine Suzuki having a skate of her life more readily than Flatt. And it's worth mentioning that Suzuki and Flatt have faced off once this season, and Suzuki won. Flatt's steadiness will help her performances, no doubt.
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
I think it's also worth mentioning, Mao, like Miki, is also a big events person. She always seemed to get higher scores at major events season than at lesser GP events. Even at worlds, where she was fourth, she got a pretty good score. So I think Mao is less likely to bomb than some people have thought.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
I can imagine Suzuki having a skate of her life more readily than Flatt. And it's worth mentioning that Suzuki and Flatt have faced off once this season, and Suzuki won. Flatt's steadiness will help her performances, no doubt.

Akikio and Joannie have faced off twice this season and Akiko outskated Joannie both times. Does that give Akiko an advantage over Joannie in Vancouver?
 

bekalc

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
As for mental toughness, it's kinda depends on the situation, because Flatt has never had that much pressure on her shoulders as the other top contenders. No one really expects her to medal not even the US press. In a way, that is her greatest advantage. Very little pressure. How far will that take her on Olympic night? We'll have to see. But to me her making the podium is still a bit of a stretch for now.

She has little pressure but I suspect that if she were to find herself in the final group at the Olympics, the pressure would come on her very own. The reason I say this is because a World/Olympic medal is something you've been working for, for your entire career. And to find yourself in that position for the first time is really daunting. This is where Kim, Asada, Ando, Rochette, and Kostner have a big advantage because they've dealt with that kind of pressure before and they know what to expect or have a much better idea of what to expect in that situation. I think Rachael would get the handle on it quickly because she's a good competitor, but I'm not 100% that she'd hit it out of the park completely the first time she was in that situation. Thats why I find it so unfair for people to say Rachael is this better mental competitor than Kim, Asada, Ando etc. Because all of those girls were very good jumping beans themselves, when they were able to just go out there and skate without their countries expecting huge things out of them.. Kim was consistently landing 6/7 triple programs her last Junior year. Ando was a good jumping bean herself. And who could forget Mao as a Junior or at the GPF debut. Look at how carefree Mao was in 2006, incomparision to now. Its a completely different scenario when your expected to be the best in the world and deliver. And your country expects that from you too. Rachael just doesn't have that kind of pressure or expectations. I could point out Michelle Kwan in 1997 for another example of how difficult it is when your on top and expected to deliver.

I don't see Mao as necessarily a big show skater myself. Her highest score total ever came at a GP event. And i don't think her 2008 world championship win was her best skate ever, nor was her world championships last year. A lot of time scores are inflated at worlds.
 
Last edited:

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
She has little pressure but I suspect that if she were to find herself in the final group at the Olympics, the pressure would come on her very own. The reason I say this is because a World/Olympic medal is something you've been working for, for your entire career. And to find yourself in that position for the first time is really daunting. This is where Kim, Asada, Ando, Rochette, and Kostner have a big advantage because they've dealt with that kind of pressure before and they know what to expect or have a much better idea of what to expect in that situation. I think Rachael would get the handle on it quickly because she's a good competitor, but I'm not 100% that she'd hit it out of the park completely the first time she was in that situation. Thats why I find it so unfair for people to say Rachael is this better mental competitor than Kim, Asada, Ando etc. Because all of those girls were very good jumping beans themselves, when they were able to just go out there and skate without their countries expecting huge things out of them.. Kim was consistently landing 6/7 triple programs her last Junior year. Ando was a good jumping bean herself. And who could forget Mao as a Junior or at the GPF debut. Look at how carefree Mao was in 2006, incomparision to now. Its a completely different scenario when your expected to be the best in the world and deliver. And your country expects that from you too. Rachael just doesn't have that kind of pressure or expectations. I could point out Michelle Kwan in 1997 for another example of how difficult it is when your on top and expected to deliver.

I don't see Mao as necessarily a big show skater myself. Her highest score total ever came at a GP event. And i don't think her 2008 world championship win was her best skate ever, nor was her world championships last year. A lot of time scores are inflated at worlds.


True, they weren't her best skates. I guess I just don't think Mao will bomb both programs at the Olympics. At 4CC, we have seen that she didn't let the disappointing short affect her nerves in the LP. So I think this is a good sign that some of her competitive nerve has come back, and I just think she will end on a good note. She may not win but I think she will deliver good performances.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Akikio and Joannie have faced off twice this season and Akiko outskated Joannie both times. Does that give Akiko an advantage over Joannie in Vancouver?

By twice, I'm sure you meant three times. And of course Joannie only beat Suzuki once. And no, it doesn't mean that. It's simply one fact among many that leads me to a conclusion. Flattfan is quite right to suggest that by virtue of a triple triple and level fours on her spins and spirals, Flatt has an advantage over Suzuki, even if I think a 2-3 point difference in PCS isn't particularly noteworthy.
 

bekalc

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
True, they weren't her best skates. I guess I just don't think Mao will bomb both programs at the Olympics. At 4CC, we have seen that she didn't let the disappointing short affect her nerves in the LP. So I think this is a good sign that some of her competitive nerve has come back, and I just think she will end on a good note. She may not win but I think she will deliver good performances.

But Mao wasn't 18 points back after the short program at 4CC. IF she were to find herself 18 points behind Yu-na after the short and even 10 points behind Miki, Mao just might have a different reaction. See the thing is I'm not even sure I would consider Mao messing up her triple axels as bombing. Because Mao has never been all that consistent with her 3 axels in competition. If she were to hit her 3axels at the Olympics, and I have a feeling she just might, although I also think they may be lenient on downgrades. Then, I'll consider Miss Mao to be one of the greatest big competition skaters. But if she doesn't hit these things, I'm hardly going to consider it this big surprise, because throughout her career she's been 50/50 at best with her 3axels in competition. So I would consider it instead foolishness on the part of team Asada to put their eggs in a basket of a jump that she's not consistent with. After all the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. I mean would it be bombing if Yu-na missed her 3loop a jump she's not consistent with. Or Ando getting her 3lutz/3loop downgraded. Nope.
 
Last edited:

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
even if I think a 2-3 point difference in PCS isn't particularly noteworthy.

It's not noteworthy by itself, but very much so in the context I presented.
Flatt has PCS advantage over Suzuki, regardless of the amount.
Flatt TES is also stronger than Suzuki. So I was just wondering how some people think Suzuki can beat a clean Flatt? It's not like there's a third component decided by online posters and bekalc aproved = + 3 GOE.

I think if Flatt delivered, she can just sit back and watch the other headcases explode. There will be quite a few, especially if she put pressure on them by skating first of the final group.
It's all about strategy and mind game on top of what you can actually do under pressure. If the other girls can't deliver when it counts then the nightmare is their own making and they get to live it for the rest of their life. :laugh:
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
I'm not sure past scores have so much to do with an upcoming competition. All these Ladies save Mao have the same arsenal of tricks in their programs. Mao has a 3A, but like the Quad, it is not the only scoring element.

There are always the possibilities of consistency, the dreaded pressure, and the skater's health to be considered on that day/night. And flukes can happen.

It is quite possible that the set of judges chosen may score differently than a set of judges not chosen. I'm not talking collusion, or even favoritism. Just the human touch of a GoE button. Similarly, differnt Tech Panels do not see the same elements the same way for errors and a somewhat specious given Level.

Regardless of our predictions which should be based on what we have seen of the skater in recent comps and even in galas, predictions are not easy if one is a serious sportsfan. We kind of know what they can do without risk, but will they? and what if they take a risk? We'll soon see.

I happen to be looking for skaters - not winners, but those who make a statement for the future. Go Michal!
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
But Mao wasn't 18 points back after the short program at 4CC. IF she were to find herself 18 points behind Yu-na after the short and even 10 points behind Miki, Mao just might have a different reaction. See the thing is I'm not even sure I would consider Mao messing up her triple axels as bombing. Because Mao has never been all that consistent with her 3 axels in competition. If she were to hit her 3axels at the Olympics, and I have a feeling she just might, although I also think they may be lenient on downgrades. Then, I'll consider Miss Mao to be one of the greatest big competition skaters. But if she doesn't hit these things, I'm hardly going to consider it this big surprise, because throughout her career she's been 50/50 at best with her 3axels in competition. So I would consider it instead foolishness on the part of team Asada to put their eggs in a basket of a jump that she's not consistent with. After all the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. I mean would it be bombing if Yu-na missed her 3loop a jump she's not consistent with. Or Ando getting her 3lutz/3loop downgraded. Nope.

Oh. I didn't mean bombing if Mao only messed up her 3 Axels. Flattfan was talking about her programs at GP events where she messed up her other elements as well and also fell. I think Mao will not repeat her disastrous performances at GP. She may get downgrade on her 3A though, since as you said, it was not unusual for her in the past.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Rachael does not skate with the same speed or power that Kim, Asada, Rochette, Kostner, and Ando have. They all have great flow accross the ice. Her PCS are going up but I have a hard time thinking they will be as high as the people I mentioned. Unless there's some serious politiking going on. Also in terms of quality, her jumps aren't going to get that high of GOE, in comparision to the GOE those five I mentioned are going to get on their great jumps.

Rachael's PCS have gone up, but they aren't going to go up that much further unless she makes some changes to her skating.

I just said her PCS goes up and her TES also is going up so she's closing the gap between the top 4 quickly. I don't think anyone said her PCS now rivals the top 4.
The point was, last year, the top 4 can make 1 mistake and still have a comfortable margin over Rachael. Not this year. They make one mistake, it will be close. They make 2 mistakes, Rachael will overtake them.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
It's not noteworthy by itself, but very much so in the context I presented.
Flatt has PCS advantage over Suzuki, regardless of the amount.
Flatt TES is also stronger than Suzuki. So I was just wondering how some people think Suzuki can beat a clean Flatt? It's not like there's a third component decided by online posters and bekalc aproved = + 3 GOE.

I think if Flatt delivered, she can just sit back and watch the other headcases explode. There will be quite a few, especially if she put pressure on them by skating first of the final group.
It's all about strategy and mind game on top of what you can actually do under pressure. If the other girls can't deliver when it counts then the nightmare is their own making and they get to live it for the rest of their life. :laugh:

1. Her PCS advantage isn't noteworthy, though. It'll help, but a two-three point PCS advantage is essentially margin of error stuff.

2. TES? Yep - Flatt > Suzuki.

3. Your scenario is just that - a scenario. I can envision dozens. Not sure what's funny about great skaters living a nightmare of their own making at the biggest event of their careers, though. Could you explain that to me?
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
Well, I guess we should let Flattfan live out his/her fantasies :laugh:. I think Flatt being on the podium is not only a nightmare for the other elite skaters but also a nightmare for a lot of skating fans. I mean a lot of people even complained when she won nationals against Mirai who was more graceful, so I can imagine all hell will erupt if she beats even greater skaters:rolleye:. I think the general viewers prefer graceful and aesthetically pleasing skaters, and Flatt just doesn't do it. Harsh but true.
 

museksk8r

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 31, 2006
Country
United-States
It will be interesting to see what kind of PCS push Rachael will get as a result of being the US Champion. PCS is rated more on politics, reputation, and momentum than it is on aesthetics.
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
It will be interesting to see what kind of PCS push Rachael will get as a result of being the US Champion. PCS is rated more on politics, reputation, and momentum than it is on aesthetics.

I dunno. Sure, she's the US champion but that doesn't say much when everyone knows that the US team has been pretty weak in recent years. In a way, I feel if Sasha made the team, she may have helped the American team in the PCS dept because she brings some reputation with her. Rachel has a lot of good qualities such as consistency and strong nerves, but what she lacks is the "it' factor, which helped propel teenage phenoms to the top before. Even Tonya Harding (whose altheltic prowess is similar to Flatt's) had that "it" factor. When she was on, she could really excite the crowd. Rachel's skating is just too bland. She really needs to work on that to have the results match her consistency.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Well, I guess we should let Flattfan live out his/her fantasies :laugh:. I think Flatt being on the podium is not only a nightmare for the other elite skaters but also a nightmare for a lot of skating fans. I mean a lot of people even complained when she won nationals against Mirai who was more graceful, so I can imagine all hell will erupt if she beats even greater skaters:rolleye:. I think the general viewers prefer graceful and aesthetically pleasing skaters, and Flatt just doesn't do it. Harsh but true.

Well, speaking for skating fans now? I suppose having that power means you can actually censor fantasies. Censor this,
Mao absolutely bomb the SP, score 40+.
Then proceed to bomb the LP, score 90+, place 25th. :laugh:
Miki repeat her 15th place.

It's funny how someone a Miki fan wants a graceful and aesthetically pleasing skaters. :laugh:
 

MikiAndoFan#1

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 30, 2009
Well, speaking for skating fans now? I suppose having that power means you can actually censor fantasies. Censor this,
Mao absolutely bomb the SP, score 40+.
Then proceed to bomb the LP, score 90+, place 25th. :laugh:
Miki repeat her 15th place.

It's funny how someone a Miki fan wants a graceful and aesthetically pleasing skaters. :laugh:

How about if Rachael doesn't qualify for the LP?

:laugh:

Oh, gosh! I'm joking! I don't like Rachael, but I want all skaters to do well!
 

Bennett

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 20, 2007
It will be interesting to see what kind of PCS push Rachael will get as a result of being the US Champion. PCS is rated more on politics, reputation, and momentum than it is on aesthetics.

Well, when so many articles published questioning her artistry compared to mirai, that recent comp result may not help her. I personally do not think her presentation bad though (perhaps she can get rid of some of the spins and find music that better matches her. But she is a very expressive and intelligent performer and I liked her La Mer).
 
Last edited:

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
Well, speaking for skating fans now? I suppose having that power means you can actually censor fantasies. Censor this,
Mao absolutely bomb the SP, score 40+.
Then proceed to bomb the LP, score 90+, place 25th. :laugh:
Miki repeat her 15th place.

It's funny how someone a Miki fan wants a graceful and aesthetically pleasing skaters. :laugh:

:laugh: I am not really a Miki fan. Miki is just a nickname I had for a long time. It's actually a name of a character from a manga (japanese comic book). Miki is common name for Japanese girls :). Anyways, I have no intention of censoring your fantasies, if you read my first line, I said you can live out your fantasies as much as you want :p. Also, I know those comments sound harsh but I am just saying out from my observations. Many of my friends and family, skating and non-skating fans, watched Rachel's LP at nationals said even harsher things about it that I am not going to repeat here. Also, don't you think you were the one trying to control Olympic destiny by predicting that the top contenders bomb and live out their nightmare? I mean if you don't want harsh things said to your beloved skater, you shouldn't wish bad on others. Just saying.
 

museksk8r

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 31, 2006
Country
United-States
Well, when so many articles published questioning her artistry compared to mirai, that recent comp result may not help her.

:laugh: Since when do journalists comprise ISU panels to judge PCS scores in competitions? Mirai has the downgrade issue to worry about and if the USFSA judges grilled her for it, you know the ISU panel will too, just as they have all through the Grand Prix series.
 
Last edited:
Top