Ladies' LP | Page 5 | Golden Skate

Ladies' LP

nghtvsn

Rinkside
Joined
Feb 17, 2006
My predix was:

1. Yu Na - She will skate clean but conservative. May even double a jump or omit one, but her score will be fine.
2. Joannie - She will skate clean and land all her triples and take advantage of...
3. Mao - She will land her first 3a and fall on the 2nd opening the door for Joannie to take the silver
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
Didn't Mao dumb down transitions in and out of her 3As to make it easier to jump them? So that means even if she lands 3As, she wont' get high GOE or anything like that. and it always looks like she's taking forever to get ready for her 3As.
 

stickle

Rinkside
Joined
Mar 21, 2007
Don't forget that Joannie has seven triples in her program which will pile up some points for her if she lands them all, and there's never any question of whether she rotates them or not. Her GOE's may be very good. It seems like people are writing her skating abilities off (not her heart, everyone's giving her credit for amazing determination) but Joannie's a fabulous skater who is musical and lyrical and if YuNa or Mao stumble at all, Joannie could well challenge for the gold.

That said, I'm really worried whether she'll be able to get herself up for tomorrow night. It must have taken an incredible effort to get her head in the right place to skate last night, and the response from the crowd was overwhelming. Was it all too overwhelming for her? I'm sure her coaches and support staff are doing whatever they can to keep her in a bubble right now but there comes a point where no matter how much the heart is willing, the body just can't cope any more. I hope she'll be able to go out and do herself and her mom proud but I worry for her.
 

jenaj

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 17, 2003
Country
United-States
Yu Na has yet to skate her long program perfectly. But then, Mao hasn't either. The point spread definitely leaves an opening for Mao, but she will have to land and rotate all of her jumps. The rest of her program is better than Yu Na's, especially the footwork.
 

aurora100

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 3, 2009
Yu Na has yet to skate her long program perfectly. But then, Mao hasn't either. The point spread definitely leaves an opening for Mao, but she will have to land and rotate all of her jumps. The rest of her program is better than Yu Na's, especially the footwork.

Didn't Mao skate a clean long at 4CC 2010 in Korea in January?
 

Marrymeyunakim

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 4, 2009
Yu Na has yet to skate her long program perfectly. But then, Mao hasn't either. The point spread definitely leaves an opening for Mao, but she will have to land and rotate all of her jumps. The rest of her program is better than Yu Na's, especially the footwork.

Yuna will almost definitely score higher than Mao in terms of transitions and other PCS. Some people believe that Mao's PCS should have been higher than Kim's in the SP but the judges had something else to say about that, awarding Kim the advantage by around 1.5 points. I think the gap -may- increase if both skate perfectly because Mao lacks some choreography in her LP, especially because she's doing nothing in between her triple axels.
 
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Marrymeyunakim

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 4, 2009
Yes. If I recall, Mao won the LP with around 126 points. And it was the second time she'd landed two triple-axels in her LP in comp.
 

☆Genie

Rinkside
Joined
Nov 9, 2009
What I didn't get was that she didn't tack in a 2lo in her flip and received a LEVEL 2 on her step sequence?! She has under rotated her 2toe on 3a and her PCS were 58.
I'd would expect something around 132-134 if she performs clean.
 

Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
My predications, ( I was off on all the other events so far maybe i will redeem myslef here).

Yu-na: skates well (the 2 Axel-3 toe is downgraded and 2 footed) maybe one other minor mistake. Wins easily.

Mao: one of her axles is downgraded as well as another jump. Holds onto second but is nowhere near Kim.

Joannie: is unable to skate clean, doubles her second lutz, steps out of a few things. Drops to 4th.

Miki: lands the 3/3 and the 2 Axel/ 3 toe. Moves up to get the bronze.

Result: the all-Asian podium I predicted months ago.
 

Marrymeyunakim

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 4, 2009
I have calculated the potential total element score for Mao and Yu-Na... so if they skate clean these are the sorts of technical scores they could get (but really, we're just trying to see the potential to score more than anything else). So yeah, please note that the ladies, in all probability, won't score as highly as this but I thought it would be fun to see how much potential they've got to score - and how close this potential is, technically speaking (and probably in the PCS too).

I'm assuming both will get level fours on their spiral sequence and spins, and level 3 on their step sequences. This is because at these Olympics, it's been quite easy to get the highest levels. I'm also assuming that both of them will get similar GOE to what they got here at the Olympics (or if they haven't performed it yet here in Vancouver, previous competitions).

Feel free to correct me.

Mao
3A
8.20 0.6 8.80​
3A+2T
9.5 0.6 10.10​
3F
5.5 0.2 5.7​
FSSp4
3.0 0.5 3.5​
SpSq4
3.40 2.00 5.40​
3Lo
5.5x 1.00 6.50​
3F+2Lo+2Lo
9.35 0.4 9.75​
3T
4.4x 1.00 5.40​
2A
3.85x 1.6 5.45​
FCoSp4
3.00 0.6 3.6​
SlSt3
3.30 1.0 4.30​
CCoSp4
3.50 0.5 4.00​

Base values: 62.50
Total: 72.50-74.0
 
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Marrymeyunakim

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 4, 2009
Yu-Na
3Lz-3T
10.0 2.0 12.00​
3F
5.5 1.2 6.70​
2A+2T+2Lo
6.30 1.2 7.50​
FCoSp4
3.0 0.5 3.5​
SpSq4
3.40 2.00 5.40​
2A+3T
8.25x 1.80 10.05​
3S
4.95x 0.80 5.75​
3Lz
6.60x 1.80 8.40​
SlSt3
3.30 0.70 4.00​
2A
3.85x 1.6 5.45​
FSSp4
3.50 0.50 4.00​
CCoSp4
3.50 1.00 4.50​

Base values: 62.15, slightly lower than Mao.
Total: 76.35-77.25
 

Nadia01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 10, 2009
My predications, ( I was off on all the other events so far maybe i will redeem myslef here).

Yu-na: skates well (the 2 Axel-3 toe is downgraded and 2 footed) maybe one other minor mistake. Wins easily.

Mao: one of her axles is downgraded as well as another jump. Holds onto second but is nowhere near Kim.

Joannie: is unable to skate clean, doubles her second lutz, steps out of a few things. Drops to 4th.

Miki: lands the 3/3 and the 2 Axel/ 3 toe. Moves up to get the bronze.

Result: the all-Asian podium I predicted months ago.

I don't see Yuna messing up her 2A-3T. I think she may possibly mess up or skip her 3F tho. But that's about it. Even w/ a skipped 3F, she set world rec score in LP, so I don't know how vulnerable she's really going to be. Also if she gets a super high score right before Mao, I wonder how Mao's gonna do.
 

Marrymeyunakim

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 4, 2009
By far the most obvious thing as I was calculating these scores was that if both skate perfectly (and neither will, I think), then the race will be extremely close, since their PCS are quite similar too. Another telling thing was that although Mao has a higher base value than Kim, it's quite clear that Kim's program was tailor made to maximise her points as much as possible, and to have an advantage over Mao. Mao does two triple axels and in order to counter this, Kim leaves a 3Lz until the second half of her program (kind of similar to the way Evan left some hard triples to counter Plushenko who did a quad in the first half of his program), and because of this Kim can score up to 8.40 points (as she did at TEB), somewhat "negating" the effect of Mao's other triple axel.
 

mishieru07

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 23, 2009
Kim goes before Mao so the order of the SP for them is reversed. Mao laid down the challenge today and Kim responded magnificently. If Kim lays down the challenge, and Mao responds accordingly, we could be in for a real treat. In some ways, both a privilege to witness two great talents who, had they been from separate times, could have been two individual OGM winners.

And what about Joannie... she is such a lovely girl. I want her to get bronze, or if Kim runs away with it, battle Mao for the silver. :) I feel bad that there are only three spots on the podium. My other favourite Miki maybe can't make it! :cry:

ITA. If I could, I'd give Davis/ White an OGM too. They delivered OGM worthy skates.

Interesting draw; Miki, Yu Na and Mao back-to-back! Woah.

I want a podium with four spots too (I'd also have Rochette, Mao, Yu Na and Miki on the podium). Bummer.

Here's to a day of great skating! GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!
 
M

mylastduchess

Guest
Why doesn't Mao try a 3F 3L seq instead of 3F/2L? Atleast a 3F 2A seq.
 

dlgpffps

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=107&oid=073&aid=0002019642
According to this Korean Newspaper article, a Korean judge Rhee will judge long program and there is no Japanese judge. Rhee says she will try her best to help Kim Yuna not lose. Shame. Shame. Shame.

Bad translation. She said she will try her best to ensure Yu-na doesn't suffer from poor discretion on the judge's side. Stop spreading conspiracy theories. She said: No matter how "scientific" the new scoring system's supposed to be, judges' personal opinions do influence the judging... If a skater has a judge from the same country, she will at least not suffer from wrong/unfair judging. I will try to ensure Yu-na does not suffer from uncalled for unfairness.

And this is in response to Korean conspiracy theories about the tech-caller, who DGed Yu-na's 3-3 at GPF.
 

screech

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
And don't forget, it's just one judge. There are 6 others whose marks count. And for all we know, she may be one of the judges whose score doesn't count for Kim and/or Mao.
 

Artistry

On the Ice
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
There's a Korean judge but no Japanese? Only a really naive person will still argue that won't matter under the 'new' system.
 
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