The USA Needs 13 Points in 3 Disciplines | Page 2 | Golden Skate

The USA Needs 13 Points in 3 Disciplines

Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
I think Jeremy needs to take a page out of Lysacek's handbook and skate a more conservative program without the quad. If he plays it safe and skates both programs clean, he could potentially win the World title.

If Jeremy is uninjured, I sure hope that he will jump all his jumps. For some time Evan has not tried to jump quad (except in 2010 US Nationals), because he has had an injury, which quad practicing has caused. That injury was first mentioned already in 2009 Worlds. I have understood that he had a cast in his foot after the skating season ended for him. That same injury came back as he tried to practice the quad.
 
Last edited:

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
I think the US has a good shot in dance, with D&W almost guaranteed the podium and S&B LIKELY to place in the top 10. I'm not sure how Navarro and Bommentre will fare - I'm guessing prob. a couple spots below S&B?

For ladies, there's a realistic shot too, Rachael is likely not to place lower than the middle of the top 10, with her consistency. Mirai will probably do the same or even better.

In pairs I don't think they have any hope, looking at the Olympics placements. E&L and D&B would need a lot of implosions from other teams to get into the middle of the top 10.

Men.. this one is hard to call. I'm not familiar enough with Adam Rippon and he is young. Jeremy could be 2nd, 3rd, 9th, or 15th lol - depends on which Jeremy shows up. Ryan hasn't gone to Worlds much, and he's injured but if he lands all those quads he could be on the podium.
 

jennylovskt

Medalist
Joined
Oct 20, 2006
Originally Posted by museksk8r
I think Jeremy needs to take a page out of Lysacek's handbook and skate a more conservative program without the quad. If he plays it safe and skates both programs clean, he could potentially win the World title.

This is the reason that CoP has to be changed. Must everybody skate a play-safe program in order to win?

If Jeremy is uninjured, I sure hope that he will jump all his jumps. For some time Evan has not tried to jump quad (except in 2010 US Nationals), because he has had an injury, which quad practicing has caused. That injury was first mentioned already in 2009 Worlds. I have understood that he had a cast in his foot after the skating season ended for him. That same injury came back as he tried to practice the quad.

If Lysacek had landed that quad at the Nationals, the story would probably be different.;)
 
Last edited:

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
This is the reason that CoP has to be changed. Must everybody skate a play-safe program in order to win?

No, it just seems that the men that regularly attempt quads are the men that are prone to making mistakes in their programs. I mean think about it, who regularly attempts quads? Joubert, Verner, Abbott, Bradley. They also mess up a lot. Plushenko wins so many competitions because he does quads and is consistent and usually clean. I tend to think the mental focus on the quad makes it hard for the skater to skate the rest of the program in a good mindset - if you fall on the quad, then you are POed and wished you didn't try it, and if you do land it, you get excited and lose focus in the rest of the program, not to mention the quad uses up a lot of energy. Who knows though.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
I would agree that pairs is the most iffy, but not totally impossible. I think D/B have a fire in their belly for that less-than-great Olympics short program. I see top 10 finishes for the both of them. But it will take some extra effort to get into the top 7.

I agree with many of you that Men is a big question mark because all three could finish anywhere in the standings.

Ice Dance shouldn't be a problem.

I think Mirai and Rachael gave their notice at the Olympics with 4th and 7th place finishes, so I think it's totally doable.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
No, it just seems that the men that regularly attempt quads are the men that are prone to making mistakes in their programs. I mean think about it, who regularly attempts quads? Joubert, Verner, Abbott, Bradley. They also mess up a lot. Plushenko wins so many competitions because he does quads and is consistent and usually clean. I tend to think the mental focus on the quad makes it hard for the skater to skate the rest of the program in a good mindset - if you fall on the quad, then you are POed and wished you didn't try it, and if you do land it, you get excited and lose focus in the rest of the program, not to mention the quad uses up a lot of energy. Who knows though.

If you cannot stay focused in a program, you need to work with a sports psychologist. These guys (Joubert, Verner, Abbott and Bradley) have been landing quads for a long time, so it shouldn't cause excitement if they do. If you get that excited, obviously it's not consistent and shouldn't be in your program. We have these debates all the time at our rink about program content. We (my coaches and I) have removed my most difficult jump for competition because it's just too inconsistent and I am too focused on it to the detriment of the rest of the program. If these guys are in the same boat, they need to dumb it down or work harder on the consistency.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
This is the reason that CoP has to be changed. Must everybody skate a play-safe program in order to win?

It does help to be clean and consistent all the elements you do choose to skate to. It happens to be that most of the quad skaters aren't consistent.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
If you cannot stay focused in a program, you need to work with a sports psychologist. These guys (Joubert, Verner, Abbott and Bradley) have been landing quads for a long time, so it shouldn't cause excitement if they do. If you get that excited, obviously it's not consistent and shouldn't be in your program. We have these debates all the time at our rink about program content. We (my coaches and I) have removed my most difficult jump for competition because it's just too inconsistent and I am too focused on it to the detriment of the rest of the program. If these guys are in the same boat, they need to dumb it down or work harder on the consistency.

They all seem to get pretty nervous, a sports shrink might not be a bad idea for all these guys. They are soo talented it's a shame they can't always perform up to their potential.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Joannie is out, meaning the ladies should be more than capable of getting placements adding up to 13 or less, barring any uncharacteristic meltdowns from Mirai and/or Rachael. They actually have a pretty decent shot at a medal now, Mirai already beat Miki at the Olympics and I'm not convinced Mao won't have a partial meltdown and Rachael has all her technical difficulty to back her up.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
The only way USA doesn't get three next year is if several skaters have SOHL AND both Nagasu and Flatt get dinged with UR calls.
 

yangjie

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 17, 2009
I didnt know weir wouldnt go to the worlds.

anyway, for the ladies discipline, its sure that american get 3 spots.

but for the mens, its hard for americans.

in order for american men to get 13 points,

abott; do the best and land a quad!

adam; dont make any mistakes.

at least, adam needs to beat tomas or brezina.
 

skatemom8

Rinkside
Joined
Jan 20, 2010
In pairs I think Denney/Barrett will have a stronger showing that at the Olympics. They kept the fact that Barrett was injured quiet but he was really struggling.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
The 13 points/3 teams breakdown

Men

Probable: Japan (ice is slippery, otherwise they'd be a lock. Frankly, they need someone to withdraw and another to utterly bomb, and even then I wouldn't bet on it).

Good Chance Indeed: USA (Abbott needs to medal. If he doesn't, I wouldn't count on it - I can't imagine Rippon or Bradley cracking the single digits)

Darkhorse: France/Czech/Russia (Doubtful, but I wouldn't completely ignore them)

Ladies

Probable: Japan, USA

Darkhorse: Finland (requiring to SOHLs and unfortunate skates from Suzuki, Kostner, Meier, Leonova, Makarova), South Korea (wouldn't that be something? But technically, if you remove Rochette, their Olympic performance would do it)

Pairs

Probable: Russia, China

Possible: Canada (Not requiring much, but both teams need to skate well. If they do, they can get the spots, regardless of how the other teams skate).

Dance

Probable: USA, Canada (Canada less so, but I don't want to demote it to the next level)

Possible: Italy (weird, but think about it - F/S are likely bronze medal candidates, so all that means is that C/L need top ten, which is plausible. )

Darkhorse: Russia (I doubt it, though. KhoNo were kept so far back at the Olympics that for them to leapfrog over three teams would be startling. And then for Bobrova/Soloviev to do the same. Not impossible, but I do wonder if Russia will back either team to the extent necessary to get the three spots when they've got I/K graduating to seniors next season.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
The 13 points/3 teams breakdown

Men

Probable: Japan (ice is slippery, otherwise they'd be a lock. Frankly, they need someone to withdraw and another to utterly bomb, and even then I wouldn't bet on it).

Good Chance Indeed: USA (Abbott needs to medal. If he doesn't, I wouldn't count on it - I can't imagine Rippon or Bradley cracking the single digits)

Darkhorse: France/Czech/Russia (Doubtful, but I wouldn't completely ignore them)

Ladies

Probable: Japan, USA

Darkhorse: Finland (requiring to SOHLs and unfortunate skates from Suzuki, Kostner, Meier, Leonova, Makarova), South Korea (wouldn't that be something? But technically, if you remove Rochette, their Olympic performance would do it)

Abbott doesn't need to medal, where there are 3 men, only the top 2 placements have to add up to 13. I think it is possible that Bradley and/or Rippon could easily place in the single digits. Of course, it depends on Michal, Tomas, Samuel, Brian, the other French guys, but if Bradley and Adam skate well, they should make the top 10. Even if Jeremy is like 6th, I could see Adam or Ryan being like 7th. I also think Jeremy will do well here, looking for redemption after what happened at the Olympics.

How exciting would that be if Korea got 3 spots :love:?! Plus considering the consistency of Europe, I wouldn't say it's all that unlikely. Kwak had a couple of mistakes in Vancouver so if she's clean I think she could be 10th-12th.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Again, the men's field is so deep. Bradley - he's not making the top ten - I'd wager on it. Rippon... maybe. He's seeing people he beat in juniors do well this season (Brezina, Ten, Amodio). But Abbott is so inconsistent, and he tends to peak early. He followed up his GPF win and first National championship with a mediocre 4CC and very disappointing worlds. I think he'll either medal or bomb, and if he bombs, he's out of the top ten.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Again, the men's field is so deep. Bradley - he's not making the top ten - I'd wager on it. Rippon... maybe. He's seeing people he beat in juniors do well this season (Brezina, Ten, Amodio). But Abbott is so inconsistent, and he tends to peak early. He followed up his GPF win and first National championship with a mediocre 4CC and very disappointing worlds. I think he'll either medal or bomb, and if he bombs, he's out of the top ten.

Why is Bradley definitely not going to make the top 10 :scratch:? I mean, Brezina could finish anywhere from around 5th to 15th, and Verner anywhere from like 2nd to 24th, Joubert if he goes anywhere from 1st to like 20th, Contesti anywhere from like 5th to 24th, so honestly I wouldn't say Bradley definitely will not make the top 10. If Dai has a repeat of his GPF LP, Bradley could potentially beat him and Dennis Ten just finished 9th at JUNIOR worlds, and all those other youngsters are unpredictable. Bradley beat Evan, Johnny, and Adam in the LP at nationals so if he skates well I'd be surprised if he didn't make the top 10.
 

Tesla

Final Flight
Joined
Dec 28, 2005
The men's field may be deep, but except for Plushenko, everyone is inconsistent as hell, so anything can happen.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
The men's field may be deep, but except for Plushenko, everyone is inconsistent as hell, so anything can happen.

Couldn't agree more. Joubert, Verner, Abbott, Takahashi, Bradley, Contesti could finish on the podium or in the last qualifying group, I'm not even kidding. All the youngins like Ten, Brezina, Fernandez, Amodio have stamina issues in the LP too so are also question marks. I mean, why do people think Evan's won everything this past year? Because he's the only consistent competitor among the top men.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Why is Bradley definitely not going to make the top 10 :scratch:? I mean, Brezina could finish anywhere from around 5th to 15th, and Verner anywhere from like 2nd to 24th, Joubert if he goes anywhere from 1st to like 20th, Contesti anywhere from like 5th to 24th, so honestly I wouldn't say Bradley definitely will not make the top 10. If Dai has a repeat of his GPF LP, Bradley could potentially beat him and Dennis Ten just finished 9th at JUNIOR worlds, and all those other youngsters are unpredictable. Bradley beat Evan, Johnny, and Adam in the LP at nationals so if he skates well I'd be surprised if he didn't make the top 10.

I don't think he'll get the PCS to do it. I know he's got the quads, but his lutz and axel are both iffy. The fact that he beat those three isn't all that noteworthy as I expect internationally he wouldn't have if they skated closer to their potential.

Denis Ten competes too much. Period. He's gone from Senior Grand Prix Events to 4CC to the Olympics to junior and now senior worlds. I don't expect him to do well.

As people point out, men's is deep and inconsistent. I'm just going with what my survey says. If I'm wrong... well, I've been wrong before and the world still turns.... :D
 
Top