Hersh: Nagasu not on par with Flatt? HUH? | Page 12 | Golden Skate

Hersh: Nagasu not on par with Flatt? HUH?

gkelly

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
By the way, the question, "why have a short program at all" is far from rhetorical. I liked the old cheesefest format just fine. One program, winner take all, and the whole contest fills a nice television slot.

Well, the whole contest doesn't fill a nice television slot. A nice television slot is six long programs in an hour. But how is it decided which six skaters get to compete?

U.S. Nationals has one to two dozen competitors per discipline. Well, fewer in the years when there were hardly any senior dance teams in the country.

Worlds has . . . more than 50 ladies these days.

Olympics has 30 before withdrawals, or 24 after the long program cut.

The ISU is trying to cut those numbers somewhat, but they're not going to cut them down to only 6.

The GP Final only has 6, or fewer pairs and dance teams originally. That was more or less a made-for-TV event, like the invitational cheesefests.

How can you cut down the fields to sizes manageable for TV slots?

Hold more competitions -- get all the skaters to skate their one program at regional events, then bring the top finishers to a central location for quarter finals or semifinals, and then bring the top six to the big event with the expensive tickets and the

Except that fans who travel across the world to see the big event often want more for their money than the handful of skaters that TV audiences have patience for.

Or bring everyone to one central location, divide them into groups if there are too many entries, hold initial rounds and make a cut. Hold an intermediate round and make a cut. When you get the field down to a manageable size, that's who qualifies for the final.

Is it better to narrow down the field as drastically as possible as soon as possible? Or is it better whittle it down gradually and to leave the final round as a several-hour event for each discipline, a full evening's entertainment for the paying audience, perhaps seeded so that TV can package only the last few skaters who have a chance at the title?

Is it better to have skaters who survive each cut skate the same program in each successive round, or is there value in giving the skaters different tasks to emphasize in different rounds of competition and giving audiences who want to watch the semifinals a different program to watch from each skater?

The competitors, the competition organizers, the TV networks, the casual fans, and the avid fans might all have different answers to those questions.

What serves the TV networks and casual fans best might bring in the most outside money to the sport. But if it works against the best interests of those who are actually part of the sport, is it worth the money?

And would casual fans really be served if the opportunities for high-level, high-profile competition are so limited to easily televisable packages that there's less incentive for up-and-coming skaters to stay in the sport until senior level, thus diluting the field so that the 6th-best skater who makes it to the TV broadcast is as far below the winner in quality as the 18th-place skater in a deeper field?

So compromises that allow TV networks to package smaller portions of the larger contest for casual-fan consumption, e.g., short programs to seed the start order for three hours worth of long programs, may be in order.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
I don't get your "Rachael beyond any doubt was unfairy penalised in Vancouver - and Mirai without doubt deserved her dg's at Natls." That is your opinion and mine is different.

Since you put that in quotation marks I assume you are actually quoting someone and not just making stuff up for fun.

My opinion, which I have stated over and over and over, is that Mirai's scores at Nationals were lower than I expected, watching the performance, and that the reason they were lower was because of the downgrades.

My opinion is that Rachael's scores at the Olympics were lower than I expected, watching the performance, and that the reason they were lower is because of downgrades.

As far as I could tell, watching at home without benefit of slo-motion, etc., Mirai's jumps looked OK at Nationals and Rachael's jumps looked OK at the Olympics -- but I am not a figure skating judge or technical specialist.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Well, the whole contest doesn't fill a nice television slot. A nice television slot is six long programs in an hour. But how is it decided which six skaters get to compete?...

On second thought it would be better to keep the short program to seed the long.

Events like Nationals have to be organized in a way that makes sense as a national championship competition, and the television networks have to work around it as best they can. If the short program seed results in the top skaters being in the last group, then the network can decide to show just the top flight if that is all the time they choose to devote to the competition. Also the live audience could decide o come for the whole thing or just the last hour or two, if they wanted to. (They would still have to pay full price for a ticket, though. :) )

The networks might choose not to televise the short program at all. Again, that would be a programming choice on the part of the network, based presumably on audience interest and sponsorship.

I guess what I miss the most are the invitationals, like pro-ams, where only a few top guns are invited and the whole show lasts three hours or so. The event organizer would invite the skaters that he feels will bring in the biggest gate.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
Since you put that in quotation marks I assume you are actually quoting someone and not just making stuff up for fun.

My opinion, which I have stated over and over and over, is that Mirai's scores at Nationals were lower than I expected, watching the performance, and that the reason they were lower was because of the downgrades.

My opinion is that Rachael's scores at the Olympics were lower than I expected, watching the performance, and that the reason they were lower is because of downgrades.

As far as I could tell, watching at home without benefit of slo-motion, etc., Mirai's jumps looked OK at Nationals and Rachael's jumps looked OK at the Olympics -- but I am not a figure skating judge or technical specialist.

Sorry if I was not clear about your thoughts regarding the dg's.
I appreciate the link from your previous post and I did go over the numbers. I simply do not agree with the way the judges marked the the top girls.

I also do not agree with the way the IJS fails to differentiate between one of the best spinners in the world and one of the weaker ones at the senior level. Same for laybacks, spirals, skating skills, performance execution - and "flow over the ice" as it relates to IN and CH. One girls has superior flow and the other covers the ice more like a junior skater.

I do not need a column of numbers or a hi-def instant replay to tell me what I think is good skating and what skating I clearly see lacking important qualities. I am not a judge - just a fan who has been watching for a while.

At Natls it did not appear to be very close and I saw one girl skate cirlces around the others. Not to repeat this - but many experts felt the same way. Why is that?

Skating will never be about a race for points to me but it will always be comparitive (ordinal based) when it comes to competitons. Who was better - and not who managed to score the most points with some very bad looking positions and slow skating.

Sorry if I complain too much and don't trust the ISU and the federations to play fair. I have seen too many strange things over the years to believe that a group that was so profficient at deal making and cheating suddenly changed their ethics just because they were FORCED to change the scoring system.
 
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Joined
Jul 11, 2003
My emphasis on skating order as a factor in how well contestants skate is felt by intimidation. The first person to skate hasn't a clue whether to take risks or not (think Kwan/Lipinsky) If a skater is the next competitor to skate, and hears the "bravos" from the audience while in the waiting room could aslo give a bit of shaky nerves. And, of course, if a Favorite has a melt down, and there is just pleasant applause. it could give the next skater to skate his best.

There are a lot of psychological reasons for a skater to be at his best or worst on the day of reckoning.

In the case of Mirai, I agree with Janetfan that, it is possible she may be less sure of herself skating early in the event. We will see more of this in the coming season.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
My emphasis on skating order as a factor in how well contestants skate is felt by intimidation. The first person to skate hasn't a clue whether to take risks or not (think Kwan/Lipinsky) If a skater is the next competitor to skate, and hears the "bravos" from the audience while in the waiting room could aslo give a bit of shaky nerves. And, of course, if a Favorite has a melt down, and there is just pleasant applause. it could give the next skater to skate his best.

There are a lot of psychological reasons for a skater to be at his best or worst on the day of reckoning.

In the case of Mirai, I agree with Janetfan that, it is possible she may be less sure of herself skating early in the event. We will see more of this in the coming season.

Thanks for the explanation.
Here is an interesting interview with Frank Carroll where gets into this and other topics too.
He does talk about '98 and his comments about Michelle are very interesting.........

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/sports/olympics/22longman.html
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
What an interesting article about Carroll, especially the section about Kwan. It does sting that Kwan's fall in 2002 might not have happened if Carroll was keeping his eagle eye on her jumps in the time leading up to Salt Lake City. Nonetheless, I'm so pleased that the two remain friends (I love that they meet for their birthdays), and that they both seem to have a mature view of their relationship. What a fruitful association they had together, from the early 1990s to 2001! Add Lori Nichol to the mix, and it led to some of the most magical skating in history.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
What an interesting article about Carroll, especially the section about Kwan. It does sting that Kwan's fall in 2002 might not have happened if Carroll was keeping his eagle eye on her jumps in the time leading up to Salt Lake City. Nonetheless, I'm so pleased that the two remain friends (I love that they meet for their birthdays), and that they both seem to have a mature view of their relationship. What a fruitful association they had together, from the early 1990s to 2001! Add Lori Nichol to the mix, and it led to some of the most magical skating in history.

I think it stings more that Michelle skated first at Nagano - had Tara skated first Michelle might have skated less cautiously.

This is a prime example of the point Joesitz makes about skating order. It can definitely be a factor in the way a skater performs - for better or for worse.
 
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KKonas

Medalist
Joined
Oct 31, 2009
I think it stings more that Michelle skated first at Nagano - had Tara skated first Michelle might have skated less cautiously.

This is a prime example of the point Joesitz makes about skating order. It can definitely be a factor in the way a skater performs - for better or for worse.

I was there. Kwan certainly had more pressure on her to win gold, but in my opinion, sequestering herself away from everything during the Olympics only added to the pressure, while Tara was very visible, clearly enjoying herself - even sitting in the media room next to the practice rink between practices - knitting! Not sure if skating order would have made a difference at that point. Guess we will never know for sure.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
I was there. Kwan certainly had more pressure on her to win gold, but in my opinion, sequestering herself away from everything during the Olympics only added to the pressure, while Tara was very visible, clearly enjoying herself - even sitting in the media room next to the practice rink between practices - knitting! Not sure if skating order would have made a difference at that point. Guess we will never know for sure.

Yes, these are "what if" type of questions. Interesting that Michelle did take an active part in the SLC games much like Tara did in Nagano.

Reading Carroll's comments he doesn't have an issue that Michelle stayed outside of the village. He clearly states his skater was advised on how to skate by others who had a different opinion than he did.

I find it hard to believe that if Tara had skated as well as she did - but before Michelle - that she would have just conceded the Gold and gone out to skate hoping to win the Silver.

Who knows how well she would have skated after Tara - but she certainly would have been aware that a cautious type of "stay on your feet" performance would not have been good enough to win.

Atleast Frank would have told her that. Not sure what her other advisors would have said to her.

What if....what if ....still winds up like .....who knows....who knows....what might have happened. :think:
 
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PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
What if....what if ....still winds up like .....who knows....who knows....what might have happened. :think:

Please, enough of this what-if. If Michelle had won, she would now be an icon of the sport, recognized and admired the world over. Let's move on.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
Please, enough of this what-if. If Michelle had won, she would now be an icon of the sport, recognized and admired the world over. Let's move on.

:) Yes enough - and let's only discuss Caroline - and how you state over and over for two years now that she wuzrobbed :think: :)
 
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PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
:) Yes enough - and let's only discuss Caroline - and how you state over and over for two years now that she wuzrobbed :think: :)

Actually, I want to discuss Tonya Harding, and how she was unfairly accused of involvement in the attack on Nancy. :biggrin:
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
Actually, I want to discuss Tonya Harding, and how she was unfairly accused of involvement in the attack on Nancy. :biggrin:

So do I - but that would be off-topic :laugh:

Speaking of the lovely Tonya, here is my favorite quote of hers:

"One thing I like about boxing is that I will not have to deal with the same kind of politics that I had to in skating. In boxing, it is not about your appearance, or how your costume looks, what color it is, or how much it costs."

Poor girl missed her true calling ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsoN-dk-Nvw

I think Johnny shoud be her next opponent :eek:
 
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Joined
Jul 11, 2003
Thanks for the explanation.
Here is an interesting interview with Frank Carroll where gets into this and other topics too.
He does talk about '98 and his comments about Michelle are very interesting.........

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/sports/olympics/22longman.html
quote: His first great one, Fratianne, took silver at the 1980 Winter Olympics in Lake Placid, N.Y. Carroll complained at the time, and remains convinced, that she was a victim of East-West connivance during the Cold War. He insists the results were rigged, with five German-speaking judges conspiring to hand the women’s gold medal to Anett Pötzsch of East Germany and the men’s gold to Robin Cousins of England.
unquote.

We all have our conspiracy theories which are not easily proven. But they do leave a question mark in one's mind. Thinking about the Fall of the Soviet Union and it's Allies, the scoring in Figure Skating has changed with the last Russian to skate from that era. Most of the Soviet skaters in that era were excellent skaters, but the question remains, Did they deserve to win? It is difficult to put Potzsch in that grouping, at least for me. Nowadays, would those Soviet skaters do as well with the CoP? Russia and former Soviet Federations do have the talent to win without question.

I do praise the CoP for taking the possible cheating out of figure skating, but who knows if the cheaters from wherever today can find a way to blast the CoP?

As for Kwan, I believe Carroll when he disses Danny which came to be believable in the 2002 Olys.
 

janetfan

Match Penalty
Joined
May 15, 2009
quote:
As for Kwan, I believe Carroll when he disses Danny which came to be believable in the 2002 Olys.



I haven't seen it for a while - but upon Frank Carroll's induction into the skating Hall of Fame, Michelle wrote a letter to him that expressed such nice feelings and acknowledged a debt of gratitude to Frank.

I think Frank expressed it well too when he notes in the article that after so many years a skater or any athlete may not react to instruction from the same voice as they did in the past. Isn't this a prime reason given when we see NFL and NBA coaches fired?
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Poor girl missed her true calling ;)

As far as I can tell, Caroline missed her true calling.....rhythmic gymastics
http://outofthebubble.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/rythmic_gymnastics_300x400.jpg
http://www.drjump.com/images/rhythmic gymnastics.jpg
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01476/rhythmic-gymnast_1476371i.jpg

Speed and technique are irrelevant, flexibility and grace are the only things that matter. It's not too late to switch Caroline!
 

kappa_1

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 2, 2003
^^^

I would have loved to see what Caroline and Fleur Maxwell could have done on the Rhythmic Gym mat. Unfortunately, the politricks of Rhythmic Gymnastics makes the ISU look like the Quakers.

ETA: politricks= Rastafarian for politics. Sort of.
 
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skfan

Final Flight
Joined
Jul 29, 2009
Thanks for the explanation.
Here is an interesting interview with Frank Carroll where gets into this and other topics too.
He does talk about '98 and his comments about Michelle are very interesting.........

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/sports/olympics/22longman.html


the dress MK is wearing in that article pix, i've never seen her skate in it before. which events did she compete in that dress, can someone with better memory tell me? TIA.
 

PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
On the average, there seems to be about a 6% "grade inflation" across the board, comparing national championships to international results. The judges have the most leeway in two categories, GOEs for non-jump elements and program components. It is interersting to break down the numbers for different skaters.

I decided to continue the analysis of Nationals inflation for the top ladies, though I did it in a slightly different way. I took each lady individually, and compared each National score with the nearest ISU score, whichever event that happened to be. The results were interesting.

Alissa Czisny

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2006 ……. 149.51 ……. 140.90 ……. 8.61 …...…. 5.76 %
2007 ……. 177.74 ……. 154.03 ……. 23.71 ……. 13.34%
2008 ……. 146.38 ……. 144.32 ……. 2.06 …...…. 1.41 %
2009 ……. 178.06 ……. 159.81 ……. 18.25 ……. 10.25%
2010 ……. 140.37 ……. 163.53 ……. -23.16 ……. -16.50%

average ….. average %
5.89 ………….. 2.85 %

Rachael Flatt

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2008 ……. 188.73 ……. 172.19 ……. 16.54 ……. 8.76 %
2009 ……. 173.78 ……. 162.83 ……. 10.95 ……. 6.30 %
2010 ……. 200.11 ……. 182.49 ……. 17.62 ……. 8.81 %

average ….. average
15.04 ………….. 7.96 %

Bebe Liang

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2006 ……. 151.41 ……. 159.91 ……. -8.50 ……. -5.61 %
2007 ……. 167.15 ……. 129.32 ……. 37.83 ……. 22.63 %
2008 ……. 164.87 ……. 144.25 ……. 20.62 ……. 12.51 %
2009 ……. 135.15 ……. 134.29 ……. 0.86 …..…. 0.64 %
2010 ……. 147.71 ……. 131.39 ……. 16.32 ……. 11.05 %

average ….. avarage
13.43 ………….. 8.24 %

Mirai Nagasu

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2007 ……. 155.46 ……. 163.84 ……. -8.38 ……. -5.39 %
2008 ……. 190.41 ……. 162.89 ……. 27.52 ……. 14.45 %
2009 ……. 159.99 ……. 124.22 ……. 35.77 ……. 22.36 %
2010 ……. 188.78 ……. 190.15 ……. -1.37 ……. -0.73 %

average ….. average
13.39 ………….. 7.67 %

Ashley Wagner

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2007 ……. 145.86 ……. 157.15 ……. -11.29 ……. -7.74 %
2008 ……. 188.56 ……. 152.46 ……. 36.10 ……. 19.15 %
2009 ……. 165.33 ……. 153.57 ……. 11.76 ……. 7.11 %
2010 ……. 184.70 ……. 162.07 ……. 22.63 ……. 12.25 %

average ….. average
14.80 ………….. 7.69 %

So there seems to be a 6 to 15 point inflation factor among our ladies. And I think I took a big enough sampling to prove that the inflation is really there. This is not just a quirk of one or two events, or one or two years. This is a definite pattern.

Well, I guess you know what's coming next.

Caroline Zhang

year …. Nat score …. ISU score …. inflation …. percent
2007 ……. 151.88 ……. 169.25 ……. -17.37 ……. -11.44 %
2008 ……. 173.16 ……. 171.84 ……. 1.32 ….....…. 0.76 %
2009 ……. 171.08 ……. 171.22 ……. -0.14 …..…. -0.08 %
2010 ……. 138.27 ……. 160.78 ……. -22.51 ……. -16.28 %

average ….. average
-9.68 ………….. -6.76 %

Once again, the pattern is there. :sheesh:
 
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