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Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selection?

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
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Sep 14, 2008
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France
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

That's always how it's been. Not sure why you'd expect different. Especially since Mirai was better than Ashley by a wide margin at Nationals.
 

PolymerBob

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Feb 17, 2007
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

Yes, Mirai was better than Ashley by 4.08 extra wide points. :biggrin:
 

silverlake22

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Nov 12, 2009
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

Yes, Mirai was better than Ashley by 4.08 extra wide points. :biggrin:

Only because of bogus downgrades. She had 3 triples downgraded, I believe she only should have had 1 downgraded, if the other 2 had been ratified, that would have added about 7 points to her score, meaning the margin would have been 10-12 points which is quite substantial.

Further, Mirai skated 2 clean (to the blind eye) programs, Ashley fell in the short and had a number of visible 2-foots and spins that weren't quite as good as they normally are (the bielman at the end in particular, it was at a standstill almost). Mirai skated a better competition overall.

I also think that if Ashley had been more competitive at the GPF it maybe would have altered the decision, I know she came in 4th, but that was only because Joannie and Alena had complete meltdowns in the FS, if they had skated well Ashley would have been 5th or 6th. Further, she was a distant 4th, about 12 points out of 3rd and more than 20 points off 2nd and 1st. Finally, Yuna and Miki skated VERY conservatively with mistakes at the GPF and Ashley skated about as well as she could, and they still beat her by over 20 points. If the USFSA were to send Ashley to Vancouver, they knew what they could expect. Mirai was more of a wild card, but I think most people knew that she had a shot at doing better than Ashley and Rachael if she skated well, and that's what happened at the Olympics.
 

gold12345

Medalist
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Dec 14, 2007
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

Mirai was more of a wild card, but I think most people knew that she had a shot at doing better than Ashley and Rachael if she skated well, and that's what happened at the Olympics.

I agree with this. Even if they had truly considered the skaters' international results and not just selected the Olympic team based on Nationals placement, I still would have felt good about selecting Mirai over Ashley. Mirai just has better scoring potential... She had posted 62 pts for her SP at Cup of China, while Ashley's highest SP score on the Grand Prix was 56 pts. Mirai's highest LP score was 100 pts while Ashley's was 108 pts, but I recall Mirai having made multiple mistakes in that 100 pt LP while Ashley skated extremely well to earn that 108. To me, Mirai is just the better skater, and if she skated well at the Olympics, she was going to bring in better scores/placements than Ashley could.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

^ Absolutely. I still maintain that our best bet is Nagasu/Flatt. Too bad they fell short in Torino. Nagasu may not even make next year's world team at this rate.
 

champs

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 11, 2007
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

It's hard to argue against people who believe they can justify claims based on assumptions/hypotheses and call them skaters' scoring potential, or by saying skater A is better than what the scores she received indicate because her jumps were "unfairly downgraded" at such and such competitions while not even mentioning how questionable some of the downgrades skater B's jumps received in different competitions.

Well, not that I want to argue; I just wanted to voice the sentiment of the minority on this board. By minority I mean approximately two members on this board.
 

silverlake22

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Nov 12, 2009
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

I agree with this. Even if they had truly considered the skaters' international results and not just selected the Olympic team based on Nationals placement, I still would have felt good about selecting Mirai over Ashley. Mirai just has better scoring potential... She had posted 62 pts for her SP at Cup of China, while Ashley's highest SP score on the Grand Prix was 56 pts. Mirai's highest LP score was 100 pts while Ashley's was 108 pts, but I recall Mirai having made multiple mistakes in that 100 pt LP while Ashley skated extremely well to earn that 108. To me, Mirai is just the better skater, and if she skated well at the Olympics, she was going to bring in better scores/placements than Ashley could.

Yeah, exactly. Also compared to some of the other skaters at the event I felt like Mirai's scores at SC were held down intentionally, whereas Ashley I don't think so. Further, even though her LP at SC had a number of mistakes, it was still MUCH better than her LP at CoC, and she did a clean SP at both competitions, so clearly she was on the upward swing. Also, her results from her junior days showed that the judges would reward her skating with big scores so long as she skated well (she scored 65+ for her SP at 2008 JW), and Ashley seemed to consistently get about the same scores, mid-50s for SP, mid-100s for LP. When Mirai finished 4th at the Olympics, I wasn't really surprised, I knew she had it in her, it was just more a matter of time until the judges realized she was really good and decided to give her the scores to show that.
 
Joined
Mar 14, 2006
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

^ Absolutely. I still maintain that our best bet is Nagasu/Flatt. Too bad they fell short in Torino. Nagasu may not even make next year's world team at this rate.
:confused:
Why would you say that about Nagasu rather than Flatt?

And what would be your basis for saying it about either of them? Who is more likely "at this rate" to get the spots?
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

:confused:
Why would you say that about Nagasu rather than Flatt?

And what would be your basis for saying it about either of them? Who is more likely "at this rate" to get the spots?

Yeah, I want to know too. Nagasu did better the Flatt, overall, at the Olympics/Worlds.... But in any case, both performed strongly. Yes, they flubbed at worlds but, you know, so do did Yuna Kim. I always said it would have been amazing if Nagasu and Flatt went to worlds and performed the way they did at nats and the Olympics. It's hard to be near perfect three times in a row. I know they didn't get the three spots back but honestly, who is to say any of the American girls would have done better?
Nagasu and Flatt both proved they can be strong under pressure and nats and the Olympics. Better than Sasha or Ashley or Gao or any of the rest. Hello? Ashley fell at nats, so did Sasha and so did Gao, for that matter. I can't believe some people are still arguing that Ashley should have been on the team instead of Mirai just because she made it to the GP final.
 

R.D.

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Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

To clarify:

I still maintain that our best bet is Nagasu/Flatt. Too bad they fell short in Torino.

means I don't think we would have been better off with Wagner, or Zhang, or Czisny, etc. Most likely, (with all due respect to them) we'd be worse off. One cannot predict the performances a skater will have at a given time which is why I was having such a hard time with the comments saying we should have sent Flatt/Zhang in 2009 instead of Czisny/Flatt.

Nagasu may not even make next year's world team at this rate.

meant that none of the American girls is consistent at this point. With (still) only two spots, a solid routine from Flatt, a similar strong performance from Wagner...and a lackluster performance from Nagasu at next year's Nats, and guess who gets to watch Tokyo Worlds on TV? What I'm REALLY trying to say here is that next year's team is not a lock by any means.

Admittedly, at the time I wrote the original post, I was a bit D&O from the USA's loss in the WC.
 

silverlake22

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Nov 12, 2009
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

At this point I tend to think Mirai is the favorite to make the World Team, but the field in the US is always deep, so it's not really a gaurantee for anyone. I think a lot will depend on if Rachael can improve her spins/flexibility/speed/posture in the coming season when she won't be juggling school with all the skating, if Agnes and Christina continue to improve and transform into true senior ladies, if Nagasu can maintain her consistency, and if Zhang and/or Czisny can make a convincing comeback.Time will tell. In terms of scoring potential though, at this point, Mirai is by far the highest of all the US ladies.
 

PolymerBob

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Feb 17, 2007
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

As far as I know, the difference between Olympics and Worlds is that at Worlds, there no pretense of using ISU scores to pick the team. So it's all Nationals. Whether USFSA judges will use ISU scores to massage National scores is anyone's guess, as it always is. My suspicion is that if a girl really makes a statement at the Grand Prix, her scores will get the most massaging.
 

Layfan

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Nov 5, 2009
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

Admittedly, at the time I wrote the original post, I was a bit D&O from the USA's loss in the WC.

Well, I can understand that ... and now Mexico... :cry::no:
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

As far as I know, the difference between Olympics and Worlds is that at Worlds, there no pretense of using ISU scores to pick the team. So it's all Nationals.

I think there is precious little pretense for the Olympics, either.

In any case, I don't think it is ISU scores per se that would cause a skater's scores at nationals to receive a benign boost. I think it is just the overall interplay between, "that was a great performance, I'll give that high marks," and "we know this is a great skater, so whatever she does must by definition be pretty good."

(Definition. Good skating: what good skaters do.)
 

PolymerBob

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2007
Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

In any case, I don't think it is ISU scores per se that would cause a skater's scores at nationals to receive a benign boost. I think it is just the overall interplay between, "that was a great performance, I'll give that high marks," and "we know this is a great skater, so whatever she does must by definition be pretty good."

I can accept most of that. There is just one problem with .... "we know this is a great skater". That problem is; exactly how does the USFSA ..... "know this is a great skater"? Does the USFSA determine a skater is great by watching Stars on Ice? ..... a charity benefit? ..... a summer club competition? No. The USFSA determines a skater is great by watching ISU events.
 
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