- Joined
- Jun 3, 2009
What will the 2010/2011 bring us in ICE DANCE?
Obviously, the biggest shift is the shift to two dances instead of three, with the the compulsory and OD combining to form the new short dance (no, not strictly combining, but you know what I mean). Big shifts generally don’t rewrite the playbook immediately (the shift to COP still saw three prior world champions winning again - Slutskaya, Navka/Kostamorov, Totmiannia/Marinin) but over time (aka, a couple seasons) we’ll see some major shifts.
1. Which of the top European teams emerges as the TOP European team?
Do we have such a thing any more? F/S are the reining top team: the highest ranked team at Euros, Olympics and Worlds (currently skating). But P/B are now newly crowned the number one French team, and were the highest ranked European team at Worlds 09 AND the GP circuit last season (currently skating). It’s hard not to look at this whole thing in terms of narrative and say: well, F/S won bronze on home ice. P/B have said they’ll skate until 2012 (Worlds in France), so maybe they’ll get their medal there. And that leaves the Kerrs (and of course, the UK hosts Euros in 2012). The thing is they all seem so close in terms of skill level and reputation that this reading seems plausible, if serendipitous.
2. Which of the junior-to-senior teams really makes an impact?
Of the top five teams at World Juniors last season, I believe four are moving up. While that makes sense for I/K at the very least, I wonder if it truly benefits the Shibutanis, Paul/Islam, or Alessandrini/Vaturi (my personal favourite of the four teams. I really like all three Italian ice dance teams for some reason). Canada and the USA have so much depth at the top that it could be one or even two seasons before they really get to the world team (also why I was startled Ralph/Hill went that way), and Italy only has the two spots with F/S and C/L not losing those any time soon.
In the case of A/V, my concern runs a little deeper. Lets flash back to World Juniors, 2006. At the JGPF, V/M and D/W went one-two (as expected) with third place going to C/L. At WJs though, C/L slipped to fourth overall with a sixth place FD after two falls. D/W came third, V/M first and the Russian team of Mikhailova/Sergeev came second. Now, M/S have made negligible impact on the senior stage (are they still skating together?), but the other three of the top four graduated to seniors the same season. What happened next his obvious: V/M and D/W went on their historic rises in the sport whereas C/L (despite skill, beauty and interesting programs) struggle to make the top ten. I wonder if missing on the world junior medal really hurt them in the eyes of international judging (see also the Hubbells instantly being outpaced by Chock/Zurlein when the latter came to the senior level, 4CC notwithstanding).
3. One school of Ice Dance for North America - Should we be worried?
Okay. I love the Zueva/Shpilband school of skating. The equal emphasis on technical tricks and blade work, the way they try to ensure that the teams are well matched and equal on ice. But they have the top team in Canada, and the top three (potentially four with the Shibs) teams in the USA. Does that strike anyone as a cause for concern? I don’t know a lot about “schools” of ice dancing historically, but does one dominating so much hurt the development of the sport? Yes, there are a few teams (Hubbells, non-V/M Canadian teams) that are with other coaches, and I’m really rooting for the trio of Bourne, Krylova and Camerlengo to rise through the ranks (love their programs), but I thought it was a point worth lobbing out there.
4. Asia?
One of the most gratifying things about the 06/07-09/10 quad was the rise of the North American teams. Four different podium-placers at worlds, winners of more than half the medals, the top two Olympic medals, SIX teams winning world junior medals (W/P, C/P, S/B, C/Z, Shibs, P/I).... it’s pretty awesome and speaks to a diversifying of ice dance that I’m adoring. But what about the Asian teams? I have to admit that I enjoyed what I saw of the Reeds (yeah, Asian belongs in quotes there, but work with me), and the top Chinese ice dance pair intrigue me, but they really haven’t made major inroads. Is it a cultural thing? Biological (I recall someone mentioning that the fact that Japanese men tend to be shorter, and obviously that doesn’t work well in pairs and dance, to a lesser extent)? This quad, with the incoherence in the standings after the Canton quartet suggests that now would be a perfect time to strike, because I can envision it being very clear after the 11/12 season. I have to admit that the rise of the Asian ladies (Kim, Asada, Nakano, Ando, Suzuki) was concurrent with my return in terms of interest, but I just think the sport would benefit from as diverse an array of talent as plausible.
5. Virtue/Moir vs Davis/White
All the talk in the Yu-Na Kim thread about how Orser helping Mao would’ve made her uncomfortable (or the Japanese junior skaters working at the Cricket Club) makes me even happier that the two top ice dance teams in the world have created such a wonderful rapport. Knowing V/M’s ambition (Virtue’s stated that their goals are “to win everything” (source) and creativity (all new lifts) has me very excited. And knowing just that flat out crazy drive that Davis/White have (remember, they went from the narrowest medal loss in COP history to that massive performance at CoR) makes me all a tingly about their prospects this season. My hope? V/M win the GPF (since they haven’t won yet, with D/W coming in second, completing their GPF medal collection) with D/W winning worlds. Though I don’t want D/W winning worlds twice in a row, nor do I want them winning in London, so it might be best if their worlds victory comes in Nice. I’ll be fine with V/M winning twice in a row. Shocking, isn’t it?
Obviously, the biggest shift is the shift to two dances instead of three, with the the compulsory and OD combining to form the new short dance (no, not strictly combining, but you know what I mean). Big shifts generally don’t rewrite the playbook immediately (the shift to COP still saw three prior world champions winning again - Slutskaya, Navka/Kostamorov, Totmiannia/Marinin) but over time (aka, a couple seasons) we’ll see some major shifts.
1. Which of the top European teams emerges as the TOP European team?
Do we have such a thing any more? F/S are the reining top team: the highest ranked team at Euros, Olympics and Worlds (currently skating). But P/B are now newly crowned the number one French team, and were the highest ranked European team at Worlds 09 AND the GP circuit last season (currently skating). It’s hard not to look at this whole thing in terms of narrative and say: well, F/S won bronze on home ice. P/B have said they’ll skate until 2012 (Worlds in France), so maybe they’ll get their medal there. And that leaves the Kerrs (and of course, the UK hosts Euros in 2012). The thing is they all seem so close in terms of skill level and reputation that this reading seems plausible, if serendipitous.
2. Which of the junior-to-senior teams really makes an impact?
Of the top five teams at World Juniors last season, I believe four are moving up. While that makes sense for I/K at the very least, I wonder if it truly benefits the Shibutanis, Paul/Islam, or Alessandrini/Vaturi (my personal favourite of the four teams. I really like all three Italian ice dance teams for some reason). Canada and the USA have so much depth at the top that it could be one or even two seasons before they really get to the world team (also why I was startled Ralph/Hill went that way), and Italy only has the two spots with F/S and C/L not losing those any time soon.
In the case of A/V, my concern runs a little deeper. Lets flash back to World Juniors, 2006. At the JGPF, V/M and D/W went one-two (as expected) with third place going to C/L. At WJs though, C/L slipped to fourth overall with a sixth place FD after two falls. D/W came third, V/M first and the Russian team of Mikhailova/Sergeev came second. Now, M/S have made negligible impact on the senior stage (are they still skating together?), but the other three of the top four graduated to seniors the same season. What happened next his obvious: V/M and D/W went on their historic rises in the sport whereas C/L (despite skill, beauty and interesting programs) struggle to make the top ten. I wonder if missing on the world junior medal really hurt them in the eyes of international judging (see also the Hubbells instantly being outpaced by Chock/Zurlein when the latter came to the senior level, 4CC notwithstanding).
3. One school of Ice Dance for North America - Should we be worried?
Okay. I love the Zueva/Shpilband school of skating. The equal emphasis on technical tricks and blade work, the way they try to ensure that the teams are well matched and equal on ice. But they have the top team in Canada, and the top three (potentially four with the Shibs) teams in the USA. Does that strike anyone as a cause for concern? I don’t know a lot about “schools” of ice dancing historically, but does one dominating so much hurt the development of the sport? Yes, there are a few teams (Hubbells, non-V/M Canadian teams) that are with other coaches, and I’m really rooting for the trio of Bourne, Krylova and Camerlengo to rise through the ranks (love their programs), but I thought it was a point worth lobbing out there.
4. Asia?
One of the most gratifying things about the 06/07-09/10 quad was the rise of the North American teams. Four different podium-placers at worlds, winners of more than half the medals, the top two Olympic medals, SIX teams winning world junior medals (W/P, C/P, S/B, C/Z, Shibs, P/I).... it’s pretty awesome and speaks to a diversifying of ice dance that I’m adoring. But what about the Asian teams? I have to admit that I enjoyed what I saw of the Reeds (yeah, Asian belongs in quotes there, but work with me), and the top Chinese ice dance pair intrigue me, but they really haven’t made major inroads. Is it a cultural thing? Biological (I recall someone mentioning that the fact that Japanese men tend to be shorter, and obviously that doesn’t work well in pairs and dance, to a lesser extent)? This quad, with the incoherence in the standings after the Canton quartet suggests that now would be a perfect time to strike, because I can envision it being very clear after the 11/12 season. I have to admit that the rise of the Asian ladies (Kim, Asada, Nakano, Ando, Suzuki) was concurrent with my return in terms of interest, but I just think the sport would benefit from as diverse an array of talent as plausible.
5. Virtue/Moir vs Davis/White
All the talk in the Yu-Na Kim thread about how Orser helping Mao would’ve made her uncomfortable (or the Japanese junior skaters working at the Cricket Club) makes me even happier that the two top ice dance teams in the world have created such a wonderful rapport. Knowing V/M’s ambition (Virtue’s stated that their goals are “to win everything” (source) and creativity (all new lifts) has me very excited. And knowing just that flat out crazy drive that Davis/White have (remember, they went from the narrowest medal loss in COP history to that massive performance at CoR) makes me all a tingly about their prospects this season. My hope? V/M win the GPF (since they haven’t won yet, with D/W coming in second, completing their GPF medal collection) with D/W winning worlds. Though I don’t want D/W winning worlds twice in a row, nor do I want them winning in London, so it might be best if their worlds victory comes in Nice. I’ll be fine with V/M winning twice in a row. Shocking, isn’t it?