U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

I'm not defensive, it's just that you've talked about Alissa not deserving to win 2009 Nationals seemingly every single week since it happened over a year and a half ago. I don't find it logical how someone can be so fervent about declaring Flatt and Zhang were robbed after their slow, tepid, and empty performances which didn't even showcase good overall technique. Alissa won the SP by a loooooong way and in the LP she still displayed the best quality of the competition outside of the jumps. The only thing it really makes sense to be angry about is how CoP allows skaters to create a huge lead for themselves after the SP.

I don't care if Alissa wouldn't get that PCS advantage over Flatt and Zhang in international competition (which is untrue, if they performed like they did at Nationals - the judges most definitely would have rated Czisny much higher) - she deserved that PCS at Nationals.

Click to expand...

I never said Alissa won't have a PCS advantage over Zhang or Flatt, I said she wouldn't have THAT much of a PCS advantage over. There's a pretty big difference between having lets say a 3 point advantage and having an 8 point advantage, don't you think?

Well let's just say that before we worry about Elizaveta keeping her 3A after puberty we might need to see a few landed in competition before puberty.

A practice clip is about the most meaningless thing in the world. Practice jumps, like Patrick's quad do not impress me all that much. It has been a couple of seasons for Patrick's "practice quad" and I still don;t think he has ever tried one in an ISU competition. Evan was shown landing quads in "practice" before Natls and then when it counted......

I would not compare Laney to Mirai........or almost all of the guys Mishin has trained to Plushy.
Mishin's skaters the past few season have been of the radar and a non-factor. No style and lacking any type of jump consistency.

Click to expand...

Now this I will agree with. However, I would point out that Yagudin was consistent when he was with Mishin. (Except for the Olympics when he was sick) Its hard to know what was going on with the other men, but it may be that they were never consistent. Junior World Bronze medalist Artur is pretty young and it seems like he may be getting some consistency. Besides I think Mishin has been extremely invested in Plushenko for a lot of years. Having Urmanov, Yagudin, Plushenko together in one group blew up in his face big time. And it may be that he just hasn't found a talented skater like one of those lately. Mishin normally also isn't that into taking on other people's top skaters/champions. And it can be harder when your raising the champion yourself. Lambiel for example wanted to train with Mishin full time (I believe) but Mishin said no because Plushenko might be coming back.

Lisa and Artur are really the first students Mishin's crowed about since Plushenko. And Lisa more than Artur.

I agree about Liza's consistency, hopefully they will figure out away with her, whether it be more run throughs etc.



But I'll say this even without the 3axel, I wouldn't assume Liza won't be competitive against Mirai. Liza HAS done 3/3s already in competition. And she can do a 3salchow, something Mirai can't do. (Not to mention she doesn't get edge calls)

There hasn't been an European Olympic ladies champion since Oksana. And there are right now a lot of talented Russian jumping beans out there (not just Liza) The Olympics will also be in Russia. Given the talent in Russia, whoever makes it through is going to be strong competitors, the head cases will be weeded out. And there will be a LOT of political support for them....

And the thing is that I have a feeling Mirai's jumps may be pretty ingrained. It may be easier for Liza to keep the jumps she already has, and get that triple axel (that she at least has in practice) consistent. Than it will be for Frank to completely redo Mirai's jumping technique.

bekalc said:

I never said Alissa won't have a PCS advantage over Zhang or Flatt, I said she wouldn't have THAT much of a PCS advantage over. There's a pretty big difference between having lets say a 3 point advantage and having an 8 point advantage, don't you think?

Click to expand...

I believe you're dead wrong about how they would have been scored.

Alissa certainly would have had that much of a PCS advantage over Flatt and Zhang at 2009 Worlds, if they all skated exactly as they had at Nationals. In fact, at the World level the difference likely would have been even greater. Czisny would have been in the final flight of skaters after the SP, whereas Flatt and Zhang would not (Zhang wouldn't have even been in the next-to-final flight of skaters if the tech panel downgraded her 3-3 in the SP, which didn't happen at Nationals). After failing to make the final flight of skaters, Flatt and Zhang would have been absolutely hammered by the international panel in the LP for their terrible performances.

Blades of Passion said:

I'm not defensive, it's just that you've talked about Alissa not deserving to win 2009 Nationals seemingly every single week since it happened over a year and a half ago. I don't find it logical how someone can be so fervent about declaring Flatt and Zhang were robbed after their slow, tepid, and empty performances which didn't even showcase good overall technique. Alissa won the SP by a loooooong way and in the LP she still displayed the best quality of the competition outside of the jumps. The only thing it really makes sense to be angry about is how CoP allows skaters to create a huge lead for themselves after the SP.

Click to expand...

But that was not my intent here. Look, I understand (and agree to some extent) that Zhang and Flatt were all "jumps and nothing else". Alyssa had a strong SP and that's what really won it for her (like Yuna at 2009 SA for example). But I really wish not to rehash this in this thread...it's done and the results are the results.

______________________________

But here's the thing...will history repeat itself? I don't think Flatt should get too worried at this point, but hearing about her FS choice did concern me a bit. We can't afford to have Flatt choosing pieces that don't express her strengths, or else she will slip in the standings. Why else did she go to the 2008 FS after Nationals was over? Because the status quo wasn't working.

Maybe Janetfan/other posters are onto something when they say Wagner will take Flatt's place as the US fore-runner. Maybe "Reliable Rachel" won't be so reliable any more. Then again, maybe "we ain't seen nothin' yet"

Why do people think better technique = better consistency? You can flutz or mule kick or whatever and still hit them flutz 10/10. You can have perfect edge take off like Jessica dube and hit the lutz 1/10.

Liza is inconsistent. She have 5 different triples but she won't be a threat. Just look at her skate. Multiple falls, a pop, slow, labored. Mao asada v.2., yeah, I think not. The us ladies have nothing to worry about.

bekalc said:

Frank hasn't been able to clean up Laney Diggs jumps, Evan's jumps (he got judged leniently on his rotations) As for Elizaveta, if Mao was able to keep her 3axels after puberty, why do you assume Tukt won't. Liza has much better jumping technique than Mao does at Maos' age, and the clip of her 3axel was better than Mao's 3axels. Mishin also supposedly looked at her parents before he took her on. She's not expected to get that much taller or bigger.

Its not like Tukt muscles her jumps the way lets say Meissner did. Her jumps have speed, height. And you can have issues with a lot of things Mishin may do, but the man is probably the best jumping coach in the world. I wouldn't bet against Mishin's ability to teach jumps.

I do agree about the lenient thing..

Click to expand...

Mao has struggled a lot with her 3a since going through puberty, though. She only got it consistent this season after she lost a few kgs, and she was already thin before she lost that weight, so it was sort of like Mao was forcing herself to become pre-pubescent again in order to rotate her 3a. Losing the weight worked but she also lost stamina. IIRC, Mao did not think she was going to grow a lot more at Liza's age either, but she did, and it hurt her consistency with the 3a. The later Liza goes through puberty the more likely it is she will continue to grow taller, genetics play a role, but there are outliers in every family; she may not get much taller at all or she may grow half a foot before she stops, it's too soon to tell. I do agree that Liza's jump technique is better than Mao's though. But Mirai had pretty good technique when she won junior nationals and then the next two seasons her jumps got steadily worse as she went through puberty. Mirai and Caroline went through puberty all at once, and it clearly served as a big setback, although one that, in Mirai's case, was able to be overcome. Yuna and Mao to a lesser extent went through puberty more gradually and as a result they were able to maintain most of their skills and not have any nightmarish seasons. Then there are skaters like Kimmie who get through puberty fine but then fill out a lot afterwards and lose their jumps. We don't know which path Liza will follow and her future probably depends a lot on when/how she goes through puberty, not to mention the roles her nerves play in her consistency. She will be 17 when Sochi rolls around, if she's like Mao or Yuna at 17 then maybe she will dominate, if she's like Mirai at 17 she may be a bit of a wildcard, if she's like Caroline at 17 she might not even make the team.

FlattFan said:

Why do people think better technique = better consistency? You can flutz or mule kick or whatever and still hit them flutz 10/10. You can have perfect edge take off like Jessica dube and hit the lutz 1/10.

Liza is inconsistent. She have 5 different triples but she won't be a threat. Just look at her skate. Multiple falls, a pop, slow, labored. Mao asada v.2., yeah, I think not. The us ladies have nothing to worry about.

Click to expand...

That's a good point. Czisny has a perfect outside edge lutz takeoff and that doesn't seem to have really helped her...

Originally Posted by FlattFan
Why do people think better technique = better consistency? You can flutz or mule kick or whatever and still hit them flutz 10/10. You can have perfect edge take off like Jessica dube and hit the lutz 1/10.

Liza is inconsistent. She have 5 different triples but she won't be a threat. Just look at her skate. Multiple falls, a pop, slow, labored. Mao asada v.2., yeah, I think not. The us ladies have nothing to worry about.

Click to expand...

Liza is 13, and 13 year olds are inconsistent. And as for Mao, Mao got a 138 at her first JGP, and that was with spirals counting. She had quite a lot of falls herself at her debut. Yu-na was very inconsistent her first Junior season as well. Liza has had to deal with a lot of expectations placed on her shoulders, and a lot of hype. And dealing with that type of thing can be tough for anyone. It is totally possible that Liza will never become a good competitor. But it also very possible that Liza will get use to expectations and will become a better competitor.

Even Tara Lipinski who was an amazing competitor, started struggling with consistency for a little while, once the hype started setting in. I.e Tara has no Junior World medal (for example).

That's a good point. Czisny has a perfect outside edge lutz takeoff and that doesn't seem to have really helped her...

Click to expand...

Having a correct edge takeoff doesn't necessarily mean you have good technique on the jump. Alissa has TERRIBLE jumping technique.

And the point about good technique is skaters with good technique are more likely to hold onto their jumps past puberty. What you can get away with when your itzy bitsy is different than when your older.

silverlake22 said:

That's a good point. Czisny has a perfect outside edge lutz takeoff and that doesn't seem to have really helped her...

Click to expand...

It must help. If you have reliable technique that you can trust, it must help. Edge is only part of it isn't? Alissa also underrotates some of her jumps. You also have to learn how to control your nerves, which Alissa can't seem to, but I can't imagine that having good technique doesn't help. Problem is you then have to learn to trust it under pressure.

bekalc said:

Having a correct edge takeoff doesn't necessarily mean you have good technique on the jump. Alissa has TERRIBLE jumping technique.

Click to expand...

Why is that? Has she trained badly or been coached badly? I'm not arguing. I genuinely want to know why a skater with such beautiful non-jumping skills (her spins and other moves make most other Americans look dull and stiff by comparison) can't master at least well-executed jumps, if not spectacular ones. Also, is it possible to rectify the situation at this late date?

bekalc said:

Alissa has TERRIBLE jumping technique.

Click to expand...

She does? What's wrong with it? (Except the falling down part, I mean.)

To me, she just gets nervous and she loses the fine coordination that she is capable of in practices.

Olympia said:

Why is that? Has she trained badly or been coached badly? I'm not arguing. I genuinely want to know why a skater with such beautiful non-jumping skills (her spins and other moves make most other Americans look dull and stiff by comparison) can't master at least well-executed jumps, if not spectacular ones. Also, is it possible to rectify the situation at this late date?

Click to expand...

Probably badly trained. The thing is sometimes coaches will teach skaters certain things when they are younger because the student can learn the jumps easier that way. The problem becomes when they get older, they can't get away with those types of things/ habits. This has been frankly a problem for a lot of the US girls.

The thing is that even if a coach tries to fix the technique, a lot of times when the pressure is on the skater will revert to the bad habits. Your in the end talking about ingrained habits.

Mathman said:

She does? What's wrong with it? (Except the falling down part, I mean.)

To me, she just gets nervous and she loses the fine coordination that she is capable of in practices.

Click to expand...

People keep telling me timing is important for jumps. It's hard for me to understand what that means. But it sounds like something that would be easy to mess up if you're nervous.

She does? What's wrong with it? (Except the falling down part, I mean.)

To me, she just gets nervous and she loses the fine coordination that she is capable of in practices.

Click to expand...

It may be that the issues were fixed in practice. I remember Dick Button pointed out how Alissa can sometimes move her head in a jump etc. I.e sometimes they can revert to bad habits when the pressure is on.

silverlake22 said:

...... if she's like Mirai at 17 she may be a bit of a wildcard, if she's like Caroline at 17 she might not even make the team.

Click to expand...

How do you like Mirai's and Caroline's skating since they turned 17?

PolymerBob said:

How do you like Mirai's and Caroline's skating since they turned 17?

Click to expand...

Oh you know what I meant. Liza will turn 17 right before the Olympics start in 2014, just like Mirai and Caroline turned 17 this season (or right after it). Depending on when and how she goes through puberty, she may end up like Mao who won Worlds when she was 17, Yuna who was fighting an injury but still won bronze at Worlds when she was 17, Mirai who made the Olympic team and did well there but struggled earlier in the Olympic season, right before she turned 17, or like Caroline who had a poor grand prix season and went on to finish 11th at nationals (and I guess win bronze at 4CC not that it really means anything because she just skated ok not great) , right before she turned 17.

Mathman said:

She does? What's wrong with it? (Except the falling down part, I mean.)

To me, she just gets nervous and she loses the fine coordination that she is capable of in practices.

Click to expand...

I feel the same way. Alissa's problems are in her head. Her jump technique is not great, but when she lands her jumps, she gets mostly neutral or slightly postive GOE on them. If Alissa could land her jumps more consistently, her jump technique wouldn't hold her back as it has held Caroline back, her nerves have just prevented her from landing her jumps consistently. Her jumping technique is far from terrible, I really don't think Rachael Flatt's is much better.

bekalc said:

Liza is 13, and 13 year olds are inconsistent. And as for Mao, Mao got a 138 at her first JGP, and that was with spirals counting. She had quite a lot of falls herself at her debut. Yu-na was very inconsistent her first Junior season as well. Liza has had to deal with a lot of expectations placed on her shoulders, and a lot of hype. And dealing with that type of thing can be tough for anyone. It is totally possible that Liza will never become a good competitor. But it also very possible that Liza will get use to expectations and will become a better competitor.

And the point about good technique is skaters with good technique are more likely to hold onto their jumps past puberty. What you can get away with when your itzy bitsy is different than when your older.

Click to expand...

Mao did 3a at Nationals when she was 12. Liza hasn't even done it once.
Mao was flutzing all the way. All the girls who flutzed as juniors were able to keep their flutz through puberty. Having correct technique has nothing to do with consistency. You can have horrible technique but land the jumps consistently.

What I have trouble with is crowning liza as the next bug thing. She hasn't done a single noteworthy thing and she's mao v 2? No way!

silverlake22 said:

I feel the same way. Alissa's problems are in her head. Her jump technique is not great, but when she lands her jumps, she gets mostly neutral or slightly postive GOE on them. If Alissa could land her jumps more consistently, her jump technique wouldn't hold her back as it has held Caroline back, her nerves have just prevented her from landing her jumps consistently. Her jumping technique is far from terrible, I really don't think Rachael Flatt's is much better.

Click to expand...

But the thing is maybe if Alissa's jumping technique was better, her nerves wouldn't get the best of her as much. From what I understand its really what a lot of skaters fall back on. Dick and Peggy were talking about that, it becomes harder to land those jumps if your technique is bad, and your feeling nervous. Having perhaps issues with the way you time your jumps etc may not mean that your jumps are ugly a la Zhang's. It just may mean that the way you enter, approach your jumps is not the best. That's what people are saying about Anna O too. They are thinking her issues are not just nerves but also the fact that her jumping technique is awful. And so they have a feeling the jumps are always going to be an issue for her. Plus having bad technique increases as well the likelhood of injuries.

Now if you get a skater who is a really really good competitor a la Zhang, they might be able to get away more with the bad technique. I really think a lot of Zhang's issues with the judges also was her poor skating skills. If her skating skills had been better the judges might be willing to forgive the bad jumps a little more. (Not with GOE, but at the very least give her decent PCS look at Nakano with her awful wrap.)

But even with Zhang, she's finding what she was able to get away with when she was a little itty bitty thing, is something she can't get away with when she's older. And that's where someone like Liza is so promising because her technique and the way she jumps is so very good. She for example doesn't muscle her jumps but uses speed, momentum etc.

Mao did 3a at Nationals when she was 12. Liza hasn't even done it once.
Mao was flutzing all the way. All the girls who flutzed as juniors were able to keep their flutz through puberty. Having correct technique has nothing to do with consistency. You can have horrible technique but land the jumps consistently.

What I have trouble with is crowning liza as the next bug thing. She hasn't done a single noteworthy thing and she's mao v 2? No way!

Click to expand...

Liza has a silver and bronze medal at Russian Senior Nationals. She won the free program both times, and had an especially great skate at Russian Nationals last year. Landing six gorgeous triples, including a 3lutz/3toe. Her only mess up was a triple sal fall Dragonlady over at ISU looked at Liza's jumps at that program, and said that thought she has better technique on jumps than Yu-na had at that age. And Yu-na was also quite inconsistent her first year as a Junior. And if you want to say medaling at Russian Senior nationals isn't impressive let me remind you that Liza was like 12, and Leonova was a Junior World champ/top 10 finisher at Senior Worlds. And Ksensia Marakova is also a top 10 finisher at worlds. (who she beat in the free)

As for her not doing nothing yet, well once again, Liza has done basically one international competition, which she still won. Mao scored about what Liza did at her first competition, and went on to develop more consistency etc.

People once again thought Liza could be big even before we saw her 3axel. Its because of the quality of her jumps. They are big, they have height and distance. And also because the girl has nice skating skills and presentation for her age. Everything this girl does is basically of good quality. She very much reminds me of a young Yu-na. Only add in the fact that this girl lands 3axels in practice.

Liza is a very big talent. Whether she can get consistency is a question altogether, but she's a huge talent who will have a fine future even without the 3axel. If she gets consistency on that 3axel, well there are frankly no words. It would be like combining Asada and Kim's jumps into one skater.

But ability wise, Liza is exactly where you want to be at 13.

bekalc said:

Having a correct edge takeoff doesn't necessarily mean you have good technique on the jump. Alissa has TERRIBLE jumping technique.

Click to expand...

Alissa doesn't have terrible technique at all. She simply isn't a great or consistent jumper.

Of the jumps she did land, the majority were better quality than those of Flatt and especially Zhang.