U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

bekalc · Sep 13, 2010

janetfan said:
It is fine if you listen to Elvis but Mirai is better off listening to Frank.

And the judges at the Olympics did NOT seem to agree with Elvis about Mirai - or just about anything else.

The callers at the Olympics were pretty lenient on the jumps with everyone BUT Rachael. Didn't Tara and Johnny talk about Mirai's underrotation issues. It IS an issue with her. Now maybe those jumps have been cleaned up but I'm waiting to see her getting credit for her jumps consistently before I believe it. And that's more than fair given Mirai's history.

And while Elvis is an idiot, I think he does know something about jumps.

R.D. · Sep 13, 2010

bekalc said:
The callers at the Olympics were pretty lenient on the jumps with everyone BUT Rachael. Didn't Tara and Johnny talk about Mirai's underrotation issues. It IS an issue with her. Now maybe those jumps have been cleaned up but I'm waiting to see her getting credit for her jumps consistently before I believe it. And that's more than fair given Mirai's history.

And while Elvis is an idiot, I think he does know something about jumps.

I just thought that was WEIRD beyond imagination. But anyway, not that it was an OM-worthy performance or anything.

As for Nagasu, I got the impression she was really working hard to clean up her jumps. It remains to be seen whether it's a hurdle she can really clear or whether it will continue to be a chronic problem. I really hope she can put that phase behind her for good.

janetfan · Sep 13, 2010

bekalc said:
The callers at the Olympics were pretty lenient on the jumps with everyone BUT Rachael. Didn't Tara and Johnny talk about Mirai's underrotation issues. It IS an issue with her. Now maybe those jumps have been cleaned up but I'm waiting to see her getting credit for her jumps consistently before I believe it. And that's more than fair given Mirai's history.

And while Elvis is an idiot, I think he does know something about jumps.

Anytime a young skater experiences such a dramatic growrth spurt jumps will be effected - typically for a season or even the rest of their career.

The first thing Frank said he had to do was change all of Mirai's jumps last season. He said her growth was so dramatic that he literally had to start over with her.

Considering the way Mirai progressed last season it appears she is on the right track.
As they say, "some see the glass half empty, and others see it half full."

Go Mirai!

bekalc · Sep 13, 2010

Anytime a young skater experiences such a dramatic growrth spurt jumps will be effected - typically for a season or even the rest of their career.

Mirai had issues rotating her jumps before that growth spurt. And I do agree that she seems like she's on the right track, but as I said before I'm not going to get attached until those jumps are rotated consistently.

PolymerBob · Sep 13, 2010

bekalc said:
The callers at the Olympics were pretty lenient on the jumps with everyone BUT Rachael.

I think the scores at the Olympics were inflated. Now that would not be a problem if all skaters were inflated equally, but I’m starting to think that was not the case. If the inflation was caused by ignoring underrotations, then those skaters who UR the most would have been inflated the most. Skaters who UR the least would have been inflated the least.

janetfan · Sep 13, 2010

PolymerBob said:
I think the scores at the Olympics were inflated. Now that would not be a problem if all skaters were inflated equally, but I’m starting to think that was not the case. If the inflation was caused by ignoring underrotations, then those skaters who UR the most would have been inflated the most. Skaters who UR the least would have been inflated the least.

And what about the other aspects of judging jumps? Like entry, edges, air position, ice coverage, flow out, and even the dreaded transitions

Were they also inflated unfairly?

Is it possible intl judges found Mirai's jumps had better entries, better air position, covered more ice and had more TR than many of the others?

Isn't it also possible they did not like slower entries, mule kicks, tilted jumps, less height and coverage, telegraphing, and a lack of TR?

PolymerBob · Sep 13, 2010

All very good points. I guess the question is, what were the judges lenient on to achieve those high scores? We may never know.

silverlake22 · Sep 13, 2010

Rachael's PCS were much higher than they had ever been at the Olympics. I agree the URs seemed a bit bogus, but considering that she had 2 UR flips in her LP, her score of 117+ was quite inflated for a 5 ratified triple performance from Rachael. She had 5 ratified triples at CoC IIRC and her score was about 97. The scores were inflated across the board, and Rachael where she went 1st in the last group I think the callers just issued her URs for borderline jumps incase the favorites bombed. That way, her PCS could be inflated like everyone else's but her overall score wouldn't be. If they hadn't given her the 2 UR calls but just given Rachael her regular PCS, her score would have been about the same, but compared to others it would have seemed unfair. Further, she got away with borderline jumps in the SP that very easily could have been downgraded, so instead of nailing her for those which would have kept her out of the final group, they just nailed her for it later.

janetfan · Sep 13, 2010

PolymerBob said:
All very good points. I guess the question is, what were the judges lenient on to achieve those high scores? We may never know.

Earlier it was discussed if Intl judging has an effect on Natl judging. Or if Intl judges are sending signals to federations and vice-versa with the way they score skaters.

If any of this does happen then what might we conclude from Vancouver relative to the US Ladies?

One might think the Intl judges were letting US Skating know that they got it wrong at Natls. The Intl judges clearly preferred Mirai's skating, particularly the pcs. But it appeared to go further and the Intl judges also sent a signal that borderline UR's are preferable to slower entries, less height /ice coverage, mule kicks/prerotated flips and bad air position on the lutz.

Some of this can be seen on their scores and GOE so it is not a complete mystery.
As to satisfying the CoP requirements in the pcs Mirai did much better compared to Rachael in Vancouver. The US judges scored their pcs as equal at Natls.

Who was right? The US judges or the Intl judges?

I don't see this as a problem due to inflation. It appears to be more about a difference of opinion about the quality of their skating.

Layfan · Sep 13, 2010

R.D. said:
And to steer things back to the current ladies :

I agree. Flatt and Nagasu are (as of now) the USA's two leaders. There has been recent talk about Flatt's LP being completely uninspiring, and I will reserve judgment until I see it- but I hope we don't have a repeat of 2009 where she is scored low even when she hits all the jumps, and has to go revert to the previous year's FS to be competitive again.

This may be Wagner's last opportunity to really take a shot at a National title, because starting next season I think the up-and-coming girls will begin to put up strong competition. Every National winner since 2006 has been a first-time winner- not looking good for Flatt to repeat next year (sorry Flatt fans) but maybe Nagasu could grab a 2nd if she can skate like she did last year...

Is this Flatt's 2011 LP?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiEkC4jmKOs

FlattFan · Sep 13, 2010

silverlake22 said:
Rachael's PCS were much higher than they had ever been at the Olympics. I agree the URs seemed a bit bogus, but considering that she had 2 UR flips in her LP, her score of 117+ was quite inflated for a 5 ratified triple performance from Rachael. She had 5 ratified triples at CoC IIRC and her score was about 97. The scores were inflated across the board, and Rachael where she went 1st in the last group I think the callers just issued her URs for borderline jumps incase the favorites bombed. That way, her PCS could be inflated like everyone else's but her overall score wouldn't be. If they hadn't given her the 2 UR calls but just given Rachael her regular PCS, her score would have been about the same, but compared to others it would have seemed unfair. Further, she got away with borderline jumps in the SP that very easily could have been downgraded, so instead of nailing her for those which would have kept her out of the final group, they just nailed her for it later.

Everyone's PCS were MUCH higher. Mao Asada did a perfect program at 4CC a month earlier and couldn't crack 59 on PCS. At the Olympics, she got 67+.
Laura Lepisto got 126+ for a 5 triples program. Now, that's inflation. I bet her program is not even close to the quality Shizuka did 4 years ago.
Her SP program was exactly where it should be. If anything, Joannie Rochette, Miki Ando were the ones with the biggest boost in the SP. Miki's flip was severely URed.
Who else would be ahead of Flatt after the SP?

Meli_Huber · Sep 13, 2010

Layfan said:
Is this Flatt's 2011 LP?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiEkC4jmKOs

Yes it is ...

silverlake22 · Sep 13, 2010

FlattFan said:
Everyone's PCS were MUCH higher. Mao Asada did a perfect program at 4CC a month earlier and couldn't crack 59 on PCS. At the Olympics, she got 67+.
Laura Lepisto got 126+ for a 5 triples program. Now, that's inflation. I bet her program is not even close to the quality Shizuka did 4 years ago.
Her SP program was exactly where it should be. If anything, Joannie Rochette, Miki Ando were the ones with the biggest boost in the SP. Miki's flip was severely URed.
Who else would be ahead of Flatt after the SP?

Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Miki were all ahead of Rachael after the SP. Rachael was overscored in the SP I thought though, because at nationals, she and Mirai were both clean and she did the 3-3 and Mirai the 3-2 and Mirai beat her, but at the Olympics the same thing happened but Rachael beat Mirai. Further, Mirai's 2a at the Olympics was better than her 2a at nationals and Rachael's 3lz at the Olympics was worse than her 3lz at nationals. To me, it would have made more sense if Rachael's 3lz had been downgraded in the SP, which would have lowered her score about 4 points, which would have put her in about 11th place after the SP, and that way, she would have been in the penultimate group for the FS, so they could have given her about the same score for her FS, maybe a little higher, but without giving her downgrades because in the penultimate group the PCS weren't as high (except for Laura) as in the final flight. Her final placement would have been about the same.

Layfan · Sep 13, 2010

silverlake22 said:
Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Miki were all ahead of Rachael after the SP. Rachael was overscored in the SP I thought though, because at nationals, she and Mirai were both clean and she did the 3-3 and Mirai the 3-2 and Mirai beat her, but at the Olympics the same thing happened but Rachael beat Mirai. Further, Mirai's 2a at the Olympics was better than her 2a at nationals and Rachael's 3lz at the Olympics was worse than her 3lz at nationals. To me, it would have made more sense if Rachael's 3lz had been downgraded in the SP, which would have lowered her score about 4 points, which would have put her in about 11th place after the SP, and that way, she would have been in the penultimate group for the FS, so they could have given her about the same score for her FS, maybe a little higher, but without giving her downgrades because in the penultimate group the PCS weren't as high (except for Laura) as in the final flight. Her final placement would have been about the same.

Wow, I could never remember so many details about the Olympic performances. Well, I haven't been able to rewatch many of them. I can't find Rachael's anywhere... I don't know if she was overscored at the SP but I remember thinking that Mirai might have been underscored Granted, her SP looked more cautious than it did at nationals, and I think she got flustered after she didn't do the 3-3. But I still think she should have been higher than sixth.

Mathman · Sep 13, 2010

I agree that all the scores were inflated quite a bit at the Olympics (starting with Yu-na Kim, who skated well but did not give, in my opinion, the all-time most amazing performance that has ever been seen in the history of the universe).

Rachael had bad luck in receiving downgrades for jumps that were no more -- or less -- underrotated than were the jumps of many others who got away with it.

Silverlake's conjectures that maybe the tech team deliberately gave Rachael a couple of URs in the LP, because they should have given her some in te SP but didn't, and so they had to give some undeserved penalty in the LP just in case some of the later skaters -- the predetermined winners -- messed up... All I can say is, I hope not.

Janetfan's idea that the international judges like to "send messages" to national judges -- again, I hope not. (For one thing, I cannot think of any reason why a judge from Helsinki, Finland, would automatically like Mirai better than Rachael, but an equally well trained judge from Skokie, Illiois, would like Rachael better than Mirai. -- or why one of these judges would care what the other one thought.)

IMHO Rachael's GOEs were too high at U.S. Nationals and about right at the Olympics. At the Olympics she mostly got 0s and 1s, reflecting the fact that her technical elements were properly done but nothing out of the ordinary in terms of quality. (Just my opinion -- Elvis Stojko may disagree.

)

FlattFan · Sep 13, 2010

silverlake22 said:
Yuna, Mao, Joannie, Miki were all ahead of Rachael after the SP. Rachael was overscored in the SP I thought though, because at nationals, she and Mirai were both clean and she did the 3-3 and Mirai the 3-2 and Mirai beat her, but at the Olympics the same thing happened but Rachael beat Mirai. Further, Mirai's 2a at the Olympics was better than her 2a at nationals and Rachael's 3lz at the Olympics was worse than her 3lz at nationals. To me, it would have made more sense if Rachael's 3lz had been downgraded in the SP, which would have lowered her score about 4 points, which would have put her in about 11th place after the SP, and that way, she would have been in the penultimate group for the FS, so they could have given her about the same score for her FS, maybe a little higher, but without giving her downgrades because in the penultimate group the PCS weren't as high (except for Laura) as in the final flight. Her final placement would have been about the same.

I still have it on my recording. Her lutz was borderline. It was definitely not Ured like Miki's. 11th place? So 10 people did better despite Rachael putting in a triple triple, a triple flip? You are crazy.

janetfan · Sep 13, 2010

Mathman said:
Janetfan's idea that the international judges like to "send messages" to national judges -- again, I hope not. (For one thing, I cannot think of any reason why a judge from Helsinki, Finland, would automatically like Mirai better than Rachael, but an equally well trained judge from Skokie, Illiois, would like Rachael better than Mirai. -- or why one of these judges would care what the other one thought.)

IMHO Rachael's GOEs were too high at U.S. Nationals and about right at the Olympics. At the Olympics she mostly got 0s and 1s, reflecting the fact that her technical elements were properly done but nothing out of the ordinary in terms of quality. (Just my opinion -- Elvis Stojko may disagree. )

It was not my idea and I believe I read it hear - wasn't it actually you and P-Bob who brought it up :think:
I was just wondering about it and offered a hypothetical line of reasoning. But like you I hope it is not true.

I agree an international judge might have no reason to favor Mirai over Rachael at the Olympics.
Regretfully I disagree about Natl judges not having a pre-determined favorite or some type of politics involved at Natls.

Frank Carroll certainly felt that way and having been on both sides of it during his career he would seem to be more aware of it than most.

silverlake22 · Sep 13, 2010

FlattFan said:
I still have it on my recording. Her lutz was borderline. It was definitely not Ured like Miki's. 11th place? So 10 people did better despite Rachael putting in a triple triple, a triple flip? You are crazy.

I meant according to protcols, not that 10 people were actually better. Rachael scored 64 and change, take away 4 points for a UR lutz and she would have been left with 60 and change, Akiko was in 11th after the SP and her score was 61 and change, so if you move everyone else up a spot, that would mean Rachael would have been in 11th. If Miki was downgraded on her flip then she would be in 11th and Rachael would move up to 10th, this is keeping everyone else's scores the same. I didn't say I agreed with the placement.

FlattFan · Sep 13, 2010

silverlake22 said:
I meant according to protcols, not that 10 people were actually better. Rachael scored 64 and change, take away 4 points for a UR lutz and she would have been left with 60 and change, Akiko was in 11th after the SP and her score was 61 and change, so if you move everyone else up a spot, that would mean Rachael would have been in 11th. If Miki was downgraded on her flip then she would be in 11th and Rachael would move up to 10th, this is keeping everyone else's scores the same. I didn't say I agreed with the placement.

From what you said, she deserved 60 points, but everyone else got to keep their inflated score? If you don't agree with the placement, then what are you saying? :sheesh:

FlattFan · Sep 13, 2010

So has anyone heard of Vanessa Lam? She apparently won first at Golden West with a huge score despite having 3 falls. Is this girl a threat at Nationals this year?

Last year, the Golden West winner and runner up went on to win tickets to the Olympics and Worlds. :thumbsup: The winner won by 17 points or something. :biggrin:

U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

bekalc

R.D.

janetfan

Match Penalty

bekalc

PolymerBob

janetfan

Match Penalty

PolymerBob

silverlake22

janetfan

Match Penalty

Layfan

FlattFan

Match Penalty

Meli_Huber

silverlake22

Layfan

Mathman

FlattFan

Match Penalty

janetfan

Match Penalty

silverlake22

FlattFan

Match Penalty

FlattFan

Match Penalty

Similar threads

Connect with us