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- Feb 17, 2007
But would the judges have put Ashley in 2nd, or would they have left her in 3rd, but sent her to the Olympics anyway? 
U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread
- Thread starter R.D.
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- Jun 21, 2003
^ My own personal opinion is that for the most part judges don't cheat and conspire to put their favorites at the top. But I do think they might be influenced by peer pressure. The Emperor's New Clothes phenomenon. If everyone is saying Ashley has great skating skills, then I might score her a little higher in this category than I would otherwise.
Maybe that would cause her to finish second instead of third, maybe not.
Maybe that would cause her to finish second instead of third, maybe not.
I think the right people went to the Olys. I don't care if Wagner won the GPF or finished dead last- she should have placed 3rd based on how she and everyone else skated. Now, the debate should be whether DESPITE that third-place finish, she should have been put on the team over Nagasu or not. I would not have done so.
Now, for the first time in awhile we have TWO American ladies in the final- hopefully they can both make it. I actually think Flatt has a good shot at winning the event if she puts out her usual solid routine and the others, volatile as they are, stumble. They could give it to, say, Ando in a close one- I DON'T want a repeat of SA. I want there to be a clear and convincing winner, whoever it is.
Now, for the first time in awhile we have TWO American ladies in the final- hopefully they can both make it. I actually think Flatt has a good shot at winning the event if she puts out her usual solid routine and the others, volatile as they are, stumble. They could give it to, say, Ando in a close one- I DON'T want a repeat of SA. I want there to be a clear and convincing winner, whoever it is.
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- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
Well, as long as we're food-for-thought-ing ..... maybe Caroline will whip herself into shape by Nationals and make the other girls fight for the silver. 
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2010
You mean Murakami? I got confused for a second.
I think that Mirai would still lose if all the protocols stay the same because even though the jumps wouldn't be downgraded to doubles, underrotation generally garners -1 to -2 GOE and IIRC, Flatt score around 130 and Mirai 118, so having a few points back from downgrades wouldn't be able to pull Mirai all the way up into first, since her lead after the SP was very slim. This is assuming PCS stays the same.
I too think Rachael has a decent shot of winning but if Ando skates clean, I don't think Rachael really has a chance TBH. But Rachael, of this group, is the likeliest to stay on her feet for two programs in a row. Even medaling would be a significant break through for Rachael. And for Alissa. Good luck to both!!!!!!!
The Nats 2010 reference is interesting, but one thing: Rachael won based on TES, not PCS (PCS was Mirai's 61.78 to Rachael's 61.71... unless you want to argue that Mirai deserves greater PCS, which I agree). By "undermarked" I'm assuming you're referring to PCS & international reputation becoming a factor. If you were talking about TES, that would be interesting, since we could then talk about subjective treatment of GOE and UR. Rachael's jumps have been getting dinged following the Olympics & the veneer of old reliable Rachael's shedding. It would be interesting to see if this trend follows into the US Nationals & Rachael this time gets scorched.
I doubt US judges won't notice a clean Rachael being held down by a flawed Kanako or Miki. International results definitely send a message.
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- Feb 21, 2006
But, to be fair, some of the UR calls against Flatt have been questionable. Flatt is still very reliable. Only a few US ladies put together a full complement of jumps into their programs. In fact, there aren't many ladies internationally that have all five triples in their freeskates.....can someone come up with a list of who does use 3S, 3T, 3Lp, 3F, 3Lz this season in their freeskates?
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- Jul 26, 2003
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For Rachael, making the GPF is a definite step in the right direction!
As to which skaters are doing all 5 triples correctly in an LP, or even attempting that feat:
Those trying all 5 and succeeding:
Rachael & Victoria Helgessen have actually done it. (Rachael at NHK, Helgessen at SA)
An injured Rachael at SA, indeed had all 5 types of triples in her program, but her 3T in the 2A3T combo was underrotated. At NHK, she completed one of each jump type successfully. (It was her second flip and lutz that were judged UR).
So did Victoria Helgessen attempt all 5, successfully, at SA.
Those trying to do all 5, but not yet succeeding in doing them correctly:
Zawadzki is trying all 5, but her loop and Salchow were underrotated at CoR. At SC, both her lutzes her doubled. So during the season, she has at least one of each jump competed correctly, not just in the same program.
So did Murakami attempt all 5. At NHK, her Lutz and Loop were UR, and her lutz got an edge call. At SA, her loop
was again UR, and her lutz got an edge call.
Suzuki attempted all 5 at CoR. At CoC, her 3t in combo was UR, her salchow was popped, and her flip was popped
Ashley tried all 5 at CoR. Her only lutz was underrotated with an edge call . At NHK, the lutz was UR with an edge call and both loops were UR.
Makarova tried all 5 at CoR. Her lutz was underrotated with an edge call. At SC, her lutz also got an edge call.
Those not trying all 5:
Ando is not doing the flip.
Biryukova is not doing the flip.
Marchei is not doing the loop.
Leonova is not doing the salchow, and her loop was doubled at CoC.
Kostner is not showing lutz or flip so far this season.
Mirai is not doing the salchow.
LaCoste is not doing the salchow
Kiira does not do the flip (and falls on her lutz)
Bingwa Geng is not doing the loop.
Phaneuf has no flip scheduled
Czisny has no salchow, and at TEB, no triple toe, but I think her 9th element is intended to be one It is shown as one at SC, where it is UR.
Asada seems to be trying to put all the triples in, but it is hard to tell. At TEB, she had flip, lutz, salchow & loop. There is no toe attempt, even as part of a combo, but I expect it to come.
So at the GPF, Rachael is the only one who has succeeded this season.
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Thanks for that list, Doris! Interesting.
When I said that if Miki is clean Rachael has no chance I didn't mean that's the way I would judge it. Only it's a feeling I have about what the result would be.
Ah, you're right. I did actually mean Ando, but yes, for the analogy to be right, it should be Murakami.
If Ando is clean, then no, Flatt wouldn't have a chance. But in that case I wouldn't have a problem with Ando winning. Where I DO have a problem is when mediocre performances by skaters with "rep" get put over those who actually SKATE superior performances. This was a problem during the 6.0 era, and it looks like Cop hasn't been able to get rid of this. In fact, it seems to only enhance (i.e. quantify) it...That's the frustrating part for me. But whatever, I guess.
Agreed. I would argue, though, that Rachel SHOULD be able to grab at least bronze here. Well, assuming she is at least in SA fighting form and hasn't been further compromised by her injury. Alyssa- well that's a different story altogether, and we all know why.
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- May 15, 2009
Miki is one of my favorites as a person. I have never heard anyone in skating say a bad word about her. When Adam Rippon was training with Yuna he was asked if he was for Yuna to win the GPF. In a smart answer Rippon said he liked both girls. When pressed he said he could never root against Miki as he found her to be the nicest, sweetest girl in the world.
Not surprising that Rippon also said Yuna's mother never said two words to him......
As to skating - if they both land their jumps Miki should win. Although stylistically not my favorite I see Miki as clearly superior to Flatt. Miki is faster, a better spinner and although her posture is not the best it is still easily better than Rachael.
I see them both as tech skaters and see Miki's jumps as bigger and better than Rachael.
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Miki is one of my favorites as a person. I have never heard anyone in skating say a bad word about her. When Adam Rippon was training with Yuna he was asked if he was for Yuna to win the GPF. In a smart answer Rippon said he liked both girls. When pressed he said he could never root against Miki as he found her to be the nicest, sweetest girl in the world.
Not surprising that Rippon also said Yuna's mother never said two words to him......
As to skating - if they both land their jumps Miki should win. Although stylistically not my favorite I see Miki as clearly superior to Flatt. Miki is faster, a better spinner and although her posture is not the best it is still easily better than Rachael.
I see them both as tech skaters and see Miki's jumps as bigger and better than Rachael.
Are you sure Miki has better posture? Have you not seen her doing cross over? It was the worst posture ever. She looks like a speed skater. Even Wang Meng has better posture than Miki.
When I think worst posture, I think Miki.
I like Miki in general and wouldn't mind if Miki wins with a clean skate, but clearly superior? Just a season ago, she was downgraded on almost every single jumps. She was the queen of underrotation in the 2008-2009 season. This girl also has no ears. I don't know what she's skating to ever. It's the same layout regardless of music. Frantically moving across the ice isn't interpretation.
YMMV, but yes, the PCS scores between Flatt and Nagasu should NOT have been that close. Nagasu really got into her program; Flatt barely did more than go through the motions. In my eyes, Nagasu was the better skater that night.
Yes, that's right. More about rep and score influencing than anything else. For many many years the National judges had Kwan outclassing the comp so choosing a winner was easy. But I have to say that now that the competition at the top is much stiffer, I find that the judging is more inconsistent and sometimes flat out strange. It all began in 2007 with the Flatt/Meissner 3-3 business in the SP, continued in 2009 with a controversial result and again in 2010 with another somewhat confusing result.
That's another great point- when and when not to call UR. I'm not talking about clear cases- I'm speaking of borderline situations where it could go either way depending on the angle, caller, etc. We want consistent calling from skater to skater in a particular event, even if the calling from event to event is not so.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
I will leave your critique of Miki for others to answer........
As to choreo - hello - why is Flatt skating her new SP and LP to the same thing she did last season- a cutsie reprise of "Sing, Sing, Sing" with many of the exact same gestures. :sheesh:
A problem with Kanako and Rachael is that some think they are being "too cutsie."
For what it is worth I would say Kanako pulls off "cutsie" a heck of a lot better than Rachael does.
Listen to the Skate America announcer as Kanako takes the ice for her exhibition skate at SA.
"She captured the hearts of Portland and the Ladies Gold medal...........please welcome "Kanako Murakami."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMVjDDWY1lI
The announcer at SA took the words right out of my mouth. :yes:
Miki is one of my favorites as a person. I have never heard anyone in skating say a bad word about her. When Adam Rippon was training with Yuna he was asked if he was for Yuna to win the GPF. In a smart answer Rippon said he liked both girls. When pressed he said he could never root against Miki as he found her to be the nicest, sweetest girl in the world.
Not surprising that Rippon also said Yuna's mother never said two words to him......
As to skating - if they both land their jumps Miki should win. Although stylistically not my favorite I see Miki as clearly superior to Flatt. Miki is faster, a better spinner and although her posture is not the best it is still easily better than Rachael.
I see them both as tech skaters and see Miki's jumps as bigger and better than Rachael.
She is faster and she has better spins. And you are so right that Miki's jumps are bigger, which is probably the biggest advantage here because neither are known for their artistry. Rachael, according to Doris's list has a wider range of triples. She also might have better musicality and I like her programs this year better than Miki's. Problem is, Rachael probably can't win a competition with PCS. Miki is a former world champion so I can't help but think the judges won't even consider that Rachael might be interpreting her music better or whatever. Miki will get higher PCS. So if Miki's brings in on ... well, she is the clear favorite in this competition anyway, I don't know who would argue with that.
- Joined
- May 15, 2009
I agree to an extent - but also think that by being with Morozov Miki deserves major "sympathy" pcs
If Wilson can make Kiira and a few of the Canadian Ladies look reasonably musical and graceful he could also do the same for Miki......
