Predictions | Golden Skate

Predictions

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Men: Joubert (unless he has a meltdown, then Kozuka), Kozuka, then Amodio, Mroz or Reynolds

Ladies: Czisny, Phaneuf, Korpii.. I don't think Mao or Mirai are going to bring it this time, and Cynthia will recover from her disappointing showing at SC

Pairs: Savchenko/Szolkowy, Bazarova/Larionov, then, idk, maybe Della Monica/Kocon or even Brodeur/Mattatall

Dance: Pechalat/Bourzat, Chock/Zuerlein, then either Carron/Jones or Riazanova/Tkachenko
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
Mao is the big question mark. It's rather a problem of her (lack of) competitive motivation than physical conditions. She seems to think jumping practices are more important than scores and placements. It's reported that the 3A in the latter half has almost zero success rate even in practices. It's quite irrational (and provocative) to attempt such a program in actual competitions. If three Japanese ladies make the Final, she and her coach might feel more pressure, but I don't know.
 

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Mao is the big question mark. It's rather a problem of her (lack of) competitive motivation than physical conditions. She seems to think jumping practices are more important than scores and placements. It's reported that the 3A in the latter half has almost zero success rate even in practices. It's quite irrational (and provocative) to attempt such a program in actual competitions. If three Japanese ladies make the Final, she and her coach might feel more pressure, but I don't know.

Yeah, maybe if she wanted to focus on jump practice or reworking of technique, she should have taken the GP off. I wonder if it isn't a little embarrassing to show up at a GP event and do a bunch of singles on national tv?
 

fairly4

Medalist
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
ladies-
mao- alissa, cythnia
with kiira, mirai and haruka with outside to medal

men
takahiko kozuka and brian joubert for the title
florent amoido, brandon mroz and kevin reyonlds for bronze

pairs
sazvachenko/szolkowy for title
barazova/larinov for 2nd
i don't know for third-so i will shot mattuer.mattal
or the italian team

dance

1)pechalat /bourzat
for other medals,
carron jost/ chock/zuerelin, riazianova/tkachenko
 
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ayayukiituka

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 19, 2009
Mao is the big question mark. It's rather a problem of her (lack of) competitive motivation than physical conditions. She seems to think jumping practices are more important than scores and placements. It's reported that the 3A in the latter half has almost zero success rate even in practices. It's quite irrational (and provocative) to attempt such a program in actual competitions. If three Japanese ladies make the Final, she and her coach might feel more pressure, but I don't know.

I wonder where you got some news as you posted here is sometimes I couldn't find. What I've read says she herself knows new-form jumps getting consistent and that it'll take a little more time to success through programs. Besides,according to both Mr.Sato and Mao,her jump consistency depends on day by day,even I have a rumor that she skated clean Sp with journalists.

As for GP series,I can say her decision could be better because she's a slow starter,which means she needs enough competitions to take confident herself.
Of course what she needs is to practice,but she should attend competition and confirm the stuff she focuses on.
 

burntBREAD

Medalist
Joined
Mar 27, 2010
I don't think Mao should do a 3A in her SP. She needs to just skate a clean program, and doing a 3A in the SP is pretty much unnecessary since her PCS is already higher than others, and she doesn't need that extra TES that comes with a gigantic risk. Her 2A is very solid and gets good +GOE, so I think in risk/reward the 3A doesn't cut it.
 

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
Ladies

As everyone states, the big question is Mao. Mao doesn't need to be clean to win, but the process she's undertaking (revamping her technique) is so profound that it's really destabalized her. I suspect this season is her time off season - I fully expect her to grow this quad (as a skater, not physically) and think the she's taking the right path to the all-time lists. But ... this competition could be great or bad, depending on who's on.

1. Kiira Korpi
2. Alissa Czisny
3. Mirai Nagasu
4. Mao Asada
5. Cynthia Phaneuf
6. Haruka Imai

Phaneuf will want a strong skate to justify being the Canadian number 1, but without Joannie Rochette, that poll position won't mean a whole hell of a lot these next few years. I don't think she really took the lessons from her solid Worlds performance that we'd hope she'd have taken. Asada's strong PCS will buoy her up a little, but her mistakes (popped jumps/URs) are costly. Nagasu would have medalled at CoC were it not for the combo rule (which has now changed the medals on three podiums this season. I don't know much about Czisny's history, but I do think she's skating with a newfound confidence this season. But in the end, I'm gonna predict Korpi. Just a gut feeling.

Men
1. Takahiko Kozuka
2. Florent Amodio
3. Brian Joubert
4. Brandon Mroz
5. Kevin Reynolds

Joubert doesn't skate well at home + new programs that challenge him in ways his previous ones didn't + PCS lower than what he's used to means that winning is going to be a challenge, especially with the concurrent rise in Kozuka's PCS. Amodio would love to beat Joubert in an international competition and has the confidence to do it. Joubert's quad will keep him in contention after the SP, but it's those little mistakes that will hurt him in the end. Reynolds with multiple quads stays in the hunt. Reynolds with no triple axel doesn't.

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Barazova/Larionov
3. Della Monica/Kocon
4. Hausch/Wende
5. Brodeur/Mattatal

They might as well ship the silver and gold right now because barring withdraws, these will be the top two. The bronze is a major fight though. Della Monica/Kocon are in a fight with Berton/Hotarek back home for the number one Italian pairs team. the younger Canadian pairs have blasted by Brodeur/Mattatal (who made the top ten at worlds two seasons ago) and would be lucky to podium at Nationals.

Dance
1. Pechelat/Borzat
2. Carron/Jost
3. Chock/Zuerlein
4. Riazanova/Tkachenko
5. Ralph/Hill

Look for Pechelat/Bourzat to challenge D/W's season scores here. Particularly on TES.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Ladies

1. Mao Asada
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Cynthia Phaneuf
4. Alissa Czisny
5. Kiira Korpi
6. Haruka Imai

Mao has reportedly worked on her jumps since NHK and they are much better now. Mirai should have no problem medaling so long as she doesn't bomb the FS, which I don't think she will here. One of Phanuef, Czisny, or Korpi will likely skate well but I don't know which one that will be. Korpi seems the most prone to make the most mistakes, so I have her behind the other two, and I put Phaneuf ahead of Czisny where we can probably expect a clean SP from her due to the layout and after the way Alissa skated at Mids I'm sort of unsure of how she will skate here.

Men
1. Takahiko Kozuka
2. Brian Joubert
3. Florent Amodio
4. Kevin Reynolds
5. Brandon Mroz

Joubert can win but he's prone to mistakes and Taka seems to be on a roll right now. If Joubert doesn't step up to the plate then Amodio may overtake him.

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Barazova/Larionov
3. Della Monica/Kocon
4. Hausch/Wende
5. Brodeur/Mattatal



Dance
1. Pechelat/Borzat
2. Ralph/Hill
3. Carron/Jost
4. Chock/Zuerlein
5. Riazanova/Tkachenko

A win for P/B to follow up her boyfriend's win last week.
 

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Is Pechalat dating Soloviev, Verner or Smirnov?

Ladies

1. Mao Asada
2. Mirai Nagasu
3. Cynthia Phaneuf
4. Alissa Czisny
5. Kiira Korpi
6. Haruka Imai

Mao has reportedly worked on her jumps since NHK and they are much better now. Mirai should have no problem medaling so long as she doesn't bomb the FS, which I don't think she will here. One of Phanuef, Czisny, or Korpi will likely skate well but I don't know which one that will be. Korpi seems the most prone to make the most mistakes, so I have her behind the other two, and I put Phaneuf ahead of Czisny where we can probably expect a clean SP from her due to the layout and after the way Alissa skated at Mids I'm sort of unsure of how she will skate here.

Men
1. Takahiko Kozuka
2. Brian Joubert
3. Florent Amodio
4. Kevin Reynolds
5. Brandon Mroz

Joubert can win but he's prone to mistakes and Taka seems to be on a roll right now. If Joubert doesn't step up to the plate then Amodio may overtake him.

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Barazova/Larionov
3. Della Monica/Kocon
4. Hausch/Wende
5. Brodeur/Mattatal



Dance
1. Pechelat/Borzat
2. Ralph/Hill
3. Carron/Jost
4. Chock/Zuerlein
5. Riazanova/Tkachenko

A win for P/B to follow up her boyfriend's win last week.
 

colleen o'neill

Medalist
Joined
Nov 3, 2006
:unsure: Gee , I don't think R/H can best any of C/J , C/Z , or R/T..

I know it's hard to do really precise comparisons between events ( different panels,etc.), but all those teams have scored roughly 20 points above R/H at their events , and I think that's a great enough disparity to suggest that while C/J, C/Z and R/T are all on a roughly equivalent footing , R/H are clearly a step below.

I'll be happy if the costume Fairy Godmother has stepped in so they don't have to appear in the fashion capital of the world in those ghastly costumes.
 
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dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
Ouch. You're right. In Paris of all places.

My fingers are crossed that Nick Verreos' critique caused them to rethink those costumes before appearing in Paris in them.
 
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Tinymavy15

Sinnerman for the win
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
I agree that neither Mao or Mirai will be in top form, but i expect them to eek out medals. I say Kira wins this one, Mao second, Miari third, Alissa fourth.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Men:

1. Kozuka- disagree with the thread starter. Joubert is past his prime and no longer a big favorite of the judges. So Kozuka does not need a meltdown from him to win, in fact he might not even need any help at all. He just needs to focus on duplicating or bettering his initial outing performances.

2. Joubert- I am being generous just because he is on home ice. It wouldnt surprise me at all if he finishes lower.

3. Mroz- more wishful than anything perhaps, but hope he can build on a very good first outing.

4. Amodio- he is very much a threat here, he could even win too.

5. Reynolds- he wont medal unless he lands every single one of his very difficult jumps.



Pairs:

1. Savchenko & Szolkowy- no contest, if they duplicate the quality of their first grand prix outing performances they will only reinforce themselves as the pair to beat in the World again.

2. Barazova & Larionov- shouldnt be a problem, and should make the GP final with ease here.

3. Della Monica & Kocon- not much to choose from. They are fast and pretty good when they arent in self destruct mode.


Dance:

1. Pechalat & Bourzat- easy, it will be mostly about the scores and performances for them.

2. Carron & Jost- home ice will boost them.

3. Chock & Zuerlin- out of the GP final.

4. Riazanova & Tkachenko- could even medal.

5. Ralph & Hill


Ladies:

1. Mao Asada- will show some semblance of form again, probably wont even need to show that much to win here.

2. Mirai Nagasu- will rebound somewhat.

3. Alissa Czisny- will do enough to secure GP final spot.

4. Kiira Korpi- you cant count on her, especialy in the LP

5. Cynthia Phaneuf- read above.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Men:

1. Kozuka- disagree with the thread starter. Joubert is past his prime and no longer a big favorite of the judges. So Kozuka does not need a meltdown from him to win, in fact he might not even need any help at all. He just needs to focus on duplicating or bettering his initial outing performances.

2. Joubert- I am being generous just because he is on home ice. It wouldnt surprise me at all if he finishes lower.

3. Mroz- more wishful than anything perhaps, but hope he can build on a very good first outing.

4. Amodio- he is very much a threat here, he could even win too.

5. Reynolds- he wont medal unless he lands every single one of his very difficult jumps.



Pairs:

1. Savchenko & Szolkowy- no contest, if they duplicate the quality of their first grand prix outing performances they will only reinforce themselves as the pair to beat in the World again.

2. Barazova & Larionov- shouldnt be a problem, and should make the GP final with ease here.

3. Della Monica & Kocon- not much to choose from. They are fast and pretty good when they arent in self destruct mode.


Dance:

1. Pechalat & Bourzat- easy, it will be mostly about the scores and performances for them.

2. Carron & Jost- home ice will boost them.

3. Chock & Zuerlin- out of the GP final.

4. Riazanova & Tkachenko- could even medal.

5. Ralph & Hill


Ladies:

1. Mao Asada- will show some semblance of form again, probably wont even need to show that much to win here.

2. Mirai Nagasu- will rebound somewhat.

3. Alissa Czisny- will do enough to secure GP final spot.

4. Kiira Korpi- you cant count on her, especialy in the LP

5. Cynthia Phaneuf- read above.

This is the way I fell about Kiira, too. I'm suprised at the number of people predicting she will win, I guess supposing she will take advantage of mistakes by Mirai, Mao and Alissa. But I have not known Kiira to skate many clean programs to take advantage of open doors, the way someone like Rachael would. She is as inconsistent as the rest of the field.

Not saying it is not possible she will win. This field is as unpredictable as Skate Canada was and any of those five ladies could win. Which says something unfortunate about the way Mao and Mirai _ who should be the favorites _ are skating so far this season.

Even so, the event has many of my favorites, just like SC, and I am really looking forward to it. Go everyone!!!:clap:

Ouch. You're right. In Paris of all places.

My fingers are crossed that Nick Verreos' critique caused them to rethink those costumes before appearing in Paris in them.

Nick Verreos gave a critique? Where can I find that?
 
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colleen o'neill

Medalist
Joined
Nov 3, 2006
:disapp: I don't have a link, but he said that R/H's SD costume looked like it was the result of "Happy Hands at Home" The picture showed them taking their bow, one arm up, and even there ,her shoulder was glued to her ear...really sad . Honestly, the costumes do look like the product of one of those kits you used to see in the hobby shops ..How to make costumes from crepe paper , or something.

I have real problems with the concept ( or lack of same ) behind their FD costumes..but nothing is as bad as this.

Edit ; Oh, what the heck ! I've been biting my tongue about R/H's FD costumes since CoC and though they look much better than the SD costumes, I just want to get this off my chest.

First off, individually they looked good ..together , not so much. Once again there's a lack of awareness ( and I hope and trust it's only that ) around racial stereotypes coming into play. First, there's the African music. Second , her dress , which, on the plus side , is the most flattering dress she's ever worn . It looks like an Ivory cocktail dress ,with a deep V neck with sparkly trim , shirring around the hip , and a drape at the front of the skirt. Very classy and mature. But then, he's dressed in casual wear ..his shirt is un-tucked and open to show his shell undershirt ( wife - beater ) and there's a belt around his waist that doesn't fit him ; it wraps around and sticks out at the back as if he doesn't care, or had to borrow it , or can't afford anything better. ( But these kids are not Russian and this is not another version of The Lady and the Hooligan ).
A couple on a date would not be dressed in such a dissimilar fashion. It definitely says there's a class distinction between them. But with the African version of "Summertime" .. it brings a racial undercurrent ( the fainest whiff of "Mandingo " , for those who know what that is) that would be so easy to avoid.
Why can't she have a simple sun dress with no sparkles ? Why can't he have a belt that fits ( or no belt at all ? ). Or he could wear a pair of lovely ice cream pants and shirt to match her..dressed , but in the tropics. ( I prefer the casual look for both, myself .) However, if they stick with Ivory ..by the end of the skate , she had a big smear of what looked to me like the rouge, or highlighter they've had him wearing on one side of her chest ..probably picked up during a lift . Maybe that could be rethought.

It just makes me queasy..but I reiterate, the SD costumes are so much worse this almost feels like nit-picking...It drives me nuts because it's all unnecessary.

Sorry, I just realized I've gone OT.
 
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NorthernDancers

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
Wow, Colleen..... I'm SO sorry to hear that. These kids were once Novice and Junior champions of Canada. And now they are about to be surpassed by P/I in Canada, and perhaps even fall below A/T and H/G. We'll have to see how those 2 latter teams do over the course of the season, but I think, based on scores for the season, R/H are dropping down the ranks instead of maintaining their position or moving up. I'm really hoping to see a big improvement in their skating this year, which will maybe help me look past all the costume fiascos and general poor choice of programs. What I love about C/P is that they are trying something very different this year, and stretching themselves and growing their talent. I am just thrilled. By doing exactly the same thing year over year, R/H fail to be seen as fresh and improving. There's a current Junior team in the same rink who continually do the same kinds of programs every year. I fear the same fate for them unless they spend some real time challenging themselves.
 

colleen o'neill

Medalist
Joined
Nov 3, 2006
:) I hope to see some improvement in Paris.. As to the skating, I agree they have a good chance at 5th , but I doubt they'd place higher ( barring any injuries or wd's involving C/J ,C/Z or R/T ).. and if Huang & Zheng , who beat them by 5+ points at CoC , were not just benefitting from the home country boost ,R/H may have to settle for 6th. Anyway, I think 5th will be a battle between those two.
 
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seniorita

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2008
I m going to TEB tommorow with the old gang from here and very excited, as far as I m concerned, imaginary I m already in paris:hb:
If Kozuka skates clean , then first :rock:and I see Amodio on podium ..Ok and I promised I ll cheer for Joub also:)
Practice reports say Mirai doesnt look good, but Alissa and Mao do!
 
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