Canadian Nationals Predictions | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Canadian Nationals Predictions

nadster

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 1, 2004
Thanks geoskate for putting up the the junior numbers. Now my comments about looking at JW and further into next season

Men

Going to Junior Worlds. Rogozine and Firus no contest. I expect Rogozine to medal and ensure Canada gets 14 slots for next year's JGP. It would be nice if Firus could get in the top 10 to ensure 3 JW spots the following year but the 14 slots IMO are more important.

Next year JGP. Firus, Morais and Davis all age out. Rogozine has 2 years left but I expect him to be on the senior GP ( the bronze medal at the JGPF guarantees him senior GP spots for next year if he is willing to take them.) Which means 100% new skaters on the circuit. Hopefully SC will use all spots ( unlike the dance spots which were wasted this year).

Ladies

Hardest to predict which 2 ladies will be sent. They are all so inconsistent. Almost no chance for 14 slots here ( too many strong countries ) . Sagaria has the most consistent loop ( jump out of steps ) but she is less consistent with the easier triples. Hopefully Charbonneau regains last year's form. Will wait until nationals before I say more here but I think that any of the top 10 on geoskate's list that made it to Canadians ( eliminating Inoda and Favot for example) will get a chance. I also take into account that the senior scores are inflated for those skaters that don't have a triple loop.

Next year: Grenier ages out. Charbonneau and Najarro will be in their last year. Won't say too much more right now.

Pairs

Our 3 pairs who made the JGPF this year are fighting for 2 spots. Basically it will be 2 of those 3 at JW. We should qualify 3 pairs for next year and keep maximum 12 JGP slots.

Next year. Our 3 JGPF bound pairs all age out next year. I think the 2 who make it to JW will have excellent chances of getting senior GP slots. The non-JGPF bound pairs that got JGP assignments this year will return.

Dance

JW: Whoever finishes in the top 2 in junior dance. Will probably be fought among the top 3 at the challenge.

JW results: Most likely a Russian sweep of the medals here. The question here is if we can somehow sneak into the top 3 countries. I say we have a chance. Orford/Williams have a higher total aggregate score ( scores of 2 JGP's added together ) than the top French team that was the first alternate for the JGPF. The key will be beating the Ukranian team that went to the JGPF. Tough but IMO, doable. Orford/Williams' score at the challenge was better that the Ukranians at the JGPF. However I will take into account that all the teams at the JGPF scored well below their PB's this year ( perhaps a tougher caller).

Next year: Carsewell/Doleman age out. All other teams can return.
 
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NorthernDancers

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
Interesting, nadster. I think it will be a good battle for the top 2 spots to go to JW in dance. I personally don't know if the rest of the world will be as enamoured with Orford/Williams as the judges in Canada. Ice dance is about more than just speed and power. Both Quebec teams have much stronger "dancing" skills, artistry, finesse, etc. Poulin/Servant have the highest scores internationally, I believe. Beaudry/Breton have also been consistently good in Canada over the season. The whole Junior dance scene is interesting. I don't think Challenge is a predictor of Nationals, just because the judging seemed odd at Challenge. That being said, I think politcs and international records considered, the likely participants in JW will be Poulin/Servant and Orford/Williams, with Beaudry/Breton, Hasegawas, and Oliveira/Hockley in the wings if one of the top 2 mess up. Last year, Paul/Islam were clearly the run-away favourites. I don't think there is a team like them this year.

Here is what I saw at Challenge for the rest of the teams that qualify for Nationals:
- Paradis/Ouellette: strong, but I'm not remembering much a week later, which maybe isn't a good thing.
- MacCuish/Morris: I think they will get lost in the mix. They did not do well internationally, had some injuries this season, and just don't look "together". Because of all of this, I think they will not be favourites, and could even drop in the standings.
- Soucisse/Smyth: REALLY liked this team's FD. This is a new team, but they look very strong. Really great to watch. They had some big errors, but could factor in the top 5 somewhere.
- Aghai/Dalmer: interesting concept in the FD, and both have improved a lot and are packaged well (they look quite striking as a team), but, as with other BC teams, they need a whole lot more finesse and artistry to go with their speed
- Clarkes: for the life of me cannot understand how they finished this high at Challenge. They may have earned their levels, but it was slow, uninspired, horrid posture, and just not good, both SD and FD.
- Cholette/Proulx-Senecal: kind of like the Clarkes. Maybe earned levels, but very slow, uninspired, and not very good. Surprising they finished this high
- Lioudvinevitch/Mulder: probably had the nicest, most elegant SD, but for some reason didn't get the levels on the Waltz (the curse of skating 1st in the event?); combined with some real errors in their FD left them lower in the standings; have to think they'll move up at Nationals, and maybe quite a bit if they are clean
- Van As/Shindle: another new team from BC; not the speed of the other BC teams, nor the packaging; some solid skating, but just ho hum
- Marrow/Stoll: also really nice looking team that just didn't get levels in SD or FD; strong, young team with lots of potential, I think, but perhaps will get lost in the mix this year
- Carswell/Doleman: this was perhaps the most shocking result; they just didn't get their levels in the SD and FD; there were definitely some errors, but otherwise, certainly they seemed a ton better than perhaps the Clarkes or Cholette/Proulx-Senecal; in really thinking what might be up here, I think perhaps she has just grown too tall for him, which is sorta sad, when you think they were 3rd in Canada last year. Maybe after missing the final at JW last year, and not the greatest results internationally this year, maybe the judges are just not considering them in the mix, and maybe the new height dynamic is throwing off some of their technique. But I wouldn't count them out to move up substantially.
 

nadster

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 1, 2004
Interesting, nadster. I think it will be a good battle for the top 2 spots to go to JW in dance. I personally don't know if the rest of the world will be as enamoured with Orford/Williams as the judges in Canada. Ice dance is about more than just speed and power. Both Quebec teams have much stronger "dancing" skills, artistry, finesse, etc. Poulin/Servant have the highest scores internationally, I believe. Beaudry/Breton have also been consistently good in Canada over the season. The whole Junior dance scene is interesting. I don't think Challenge is a predictor of Nationals, just because the judging seemed odd at Challenge. That being said, I think politcs and international records considered, the likely participants in JW will be Poulin/Servant and Orford/Williams, with Beaudry/Breton, Hasegawas, and Oliveira/Hockley in the wings if one of the top 2 mess up. Last year, Paul/Islam were clearly the run-away favourites. I don't think there is a team like them this year.

It is true that Poulin/Servant did only get one assignment , did well there and were clearly victims of Skate Canada leaving dance spots blank. 4 of the 14 spots were unfilled. That means if Poulin/Servant go to JW , they will get a bad skate order ( ISU rankings do determine short dance order ). I also think they could sneak by the Ukranians. Like I said the key thing for development is getting the 14 JGP slots.
 

geoskate

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 22, 2005
I personally don't know if the rest of the world will be as enamoured with Orford/Williams as the judges in Canada.

I think you've got it backwards. It's the non-Canadian judges who have been giving them better marks. Witness their scoring progression in the free dance: Two Canadian competitions (Minto 59.15, BC Summer Skate 53.29), one American competition where they had much better marks and won the free skate (Lake Placid, 67.68), then their two JGP competitions (JGP Sheffield 69.15 and a bronze medal, then JGP Czech Republic 70.13). It's after that that their domestic scores went up at Challenge (69.84). I think it's more a question of the Canadian judges becoming 'enamoured' with them after the international judges gave them the go-ahead to do so.

Orford/Williams are, after all, the only Canadian junior team to win a medal on the JGP circuit this year, which does mean something.

(It's possible that Poulin/Servant could also have done so had they been given the opportunity at a second competition).
 

geoskate

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 22, 2005
Senior pairs predictions:
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
3. Lawrence/Swiegers
4. Brodeur/Mattatall
5. Jones/Gaskell or Purdy/Marinaro

Senior dance predictions:
1. Crone/Poirier
2. Weaver/Poje
3. Paul/Islam
4. Ralph/Hill
5. Arnold/Trojek

Senior men predictions:
1. Patrick Chan
2. Kevin Reynolds
3. Jeremy Ten
4. Shawn Sawyer
5. Andrei Rogozine

Senior women predictions:
1. Cynthia Phaneuf
2. Amelie Lacoste
3. Myriane Samson
4. Vanessa Grenier
5. Adriana Desanctis

I'm not even going to attempt junior predictions, because the skaters are so inconsistent.
 

sk8rdad

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 2, 2009
:)Can I take this OT for a moment to ask what Balde's injury was ? I know he had a disaster at Challenge, but boy, I'd love to see him bounce back after his year off..even if that mostly comes next year. He's got that inner spark that commands your attention.
It was a knee injury.
 

gottadance

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 27, 2009
About Jeremy Ten

I see that most of the posters here dont seem to think much of JT's chances for a podium finish at Canadians. I am wondering what I am missing here as I find his skating to be really beautiful with super lines , musicality and excellent choreography . I heard he was coming off an injury at the GP and he was unfortunate to have back to back events. So, my questions are
1. Overall do the experts think this skater has potential or not

2. does anybody know if his injury is recoverd ?

One other question - does anybody know if Cody Hay found a new partner?

Thanks for any insight !
 

blue_idealist

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
I see that most of the posters here dont seem to think much of JT's chances for a podium finish at Canadians. I am wondering what I am missing here as I find his skating to be really beautiful with super lines , musicality and excellent choreography . I heard he was coming off an injury at the GP and he was unfortunate to have back to back events. So, my questions are
1. Overall do the experts think this skater has potential or not

2. does anybody know if his injury is recoverd ?

One other question - does anybody know if Cody Hay found a new partner?

Thanks for any insight !

I don't know if Cody found a new partner but I'm curious about that too. The reason I think Ten might not get on the podium is because of the way he skated on the GP. His jumps weren't very consistent, and he didn't get high placements. He is a lovely skater though, and anything could happen, he may skate better at nats than internationally.
 

Violet Bliss

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 19, 2010
I like Jeremy and feel bad for him though he keeps such good spirits about everything without complaints. He was injured last year and missed the Olympics in his home town. He also missed almost half a year of training, yet was sent to the first two GP events, back to back in Japan and then Canada in two consecutive weeks across the Globe. He got sick after NHK, had to take two final exams, and then competed in SC. I'm really upset with Skate Canada for scheduling him like this.

He goes to school, works and trains under Mcleod in BC. Unfortunately, like most of her students, 3A is a big problem. He needs another coach for that jump but that doesn't seem to be facilitated.

This kid has the best twitters where his good nature shows.

Oh, I just remember that one of his recent tweets mentioned his brother's brilliant suggestion of jumping off his non-injured foot for the 2 jumps he has problems with due to the injury. Hmmmm....... interesting. :think:
 
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feraina

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 3, 2007
Senior pairs predictions:
1. Duhamel/Radford
2. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch

I agree that Duhamel/Radford are a threat for the podium and maybe even for gold. They looked so much better at Challenge than SC: more fluid, more synchronized, more at ease. The sbs spins are really good, the 3 twist looks effortless (are these the first 3tw from Meagan?), and I think this is the softest/most polished I've ever seen Meagan skate. I love the energy/power in their program, too, and they obviously have a good connection. They are definitely on an upward trajectory. If Meagan can get her triples under control, I think they will provide credible challenge to M-T/M. I really hope they make Worlds team!
 

geoskate

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 22, 2005
are these the first 3tw from Meagan?

No. When she was skating with Craig Buntin they did it a few times in competition. It was never remotely as good as it is with Eric Radford, however. I think it may help that Eric had a very strong triple twist when he was skating with Rachel Kirkland, and he's simply brought that good technique into the new partnership.
 

skatingfan04

Final Flight
Joined
Sep 1, 2007
I'm getting so excited for nationals!! Based on my track record, these will all be wrong, but I'll give it a shot...

Men:

1st - Patrick Chan

I know he's beel inconsistent all year, but I really don't think he will have any realy competition here. He already looked much more put together at the GP final than at his other events, and even without the jumps his artistry is by far the best in the field, so he should be pretty impossible to beat.

2nd - Kevin Reynolds

Again, I know he's been inconsistent, but his jump total alone should be enough to get him the second spot and another trip to worlds.

3rd - Andrei Rogozine

I know, this one is a bit of an unconventional pick, but I saw him skate in the summer and he really is fantastic. He has been wildly successfull and very consistent all season, and he has a full jump arsenal, so I see no reason why he shouldn't make the podium this year. I'd actually really love for him to get the chance to go to worlds. He doesn't have much of a chance to place well, but the experience he would gain would be invaluable.


Women:

1st - Cynthia Phaneuf

She's been a bit of a mess, but when it comes down to it, she has experience, technical content and artistry that the other girls simply do not have.

2nd - Amelie Lacoste

She seemed more solid than ever at Skate Canada, so hopefully she can have a similar national competition.

Third place seems to be a toss up. Whoever skates the best will get the bronze. If I had to guess, I'd put my faith in Alexandra Najarro. It seems like she's having a great year.

Pairs

1st - Kirsten Moore-Towers & Dylan Moscovitch

Although they didn't have the best showing at the GP final, I think these two are the clear frontrunners for the title. It seems like they have all the making of a worlds class pairs team, and I think all they need now is some more experience.

2nd - Paige Lawrence & Rudi Swiegers

I really like this team. They perform with a lot of heart, and their tricks are fantastic. Unfortunately, I think their inconsistent sbs jumps will cost them a shot at the title, but they should have enough to take second.

3rd - Mylene Brodeur & John Matattall

These two are great skaters, but I think the yoounger teams listed above have really overshaddowed them this season.

Dance

Provided that Virtue & Moir miss nationals...

1st - Vanessa Crone & Paul Poirier

These two have proven that they have a legitemate shot at a world medal this year, and based on the GP season, it doesn't seem like Weaver & Poje will be able to beat them, so I think these two have the title in the bag.

2nd - Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Poje

I think these two have had a great GP season, and it's definately time for them to return to the international stage. They have been missing from the world championships for far too long.

3rd - Alexandra Paul & Mitchell Islam

These two had me hooked ten seconds into their SD at a local competiton this summer. They're just magical to watch, and although their GP season probably didn't go as planned, I think their performance at Skate Canada proves that they will have no problems fitting in amongst the best seniors in the world. Provided that Alexandra's ribs have healed fully, I don't think there is any other team capable of knocking them out of third, and I think they they could even move up if one of the top two make a mistake. I really can't wait to see these two at worlds. I know they are terribly inexperienced, but I honestly think they won't have any trouble placing well.


As for the juniors, I haven't followed closely enough to really predict anything, but I think that Andreanne Poulin and Marc-Andre Servant from Quebec have a really good shot at the junior dance title. Other than that, I guess I'll just have to be surprised.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think this is going to be one of the most boring Canadians ever.

Men:

Gold- Chan 200% gauranteed

Silver- Reynolds 99% gauranteed

Bronze- crapshoot, could be any of 8 people. I hope Russel or Sawyer.



Ladies:

Gold- Phaneuf if she falls no more than twice. LaCoste if Phaneuf falls atleast 3 times and she falls no more than 1 times.

Bronze- Samson


Dance:

Gold- Crone & Poirier

Silver- Weaver & Poje

Bronze- Mitchell & Islam

Barring Virtue & Moir competing I would be stunned if any of these positions changed.


Pairs:

Gold- Moore-Towers & Moscovitch

Silver- Duhamel & Radford

Bronze- Lawrence & Swiegers

This might be the only true good battle of the week for silver between the latter two.
 

nadster

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 1, 2004
Liam firus is age eligible for one more year on the JGP, he was born after July 1, as does Andre. Only samuel has aged out. ISU rankings show Rogozine and Firus quite capable of getting Canada 14 spots. 2 golds and a bronze on the circuit. Samuel Morais is also in the mix for Junior worlds

I do think Samuel is in the mix but is unlikely to get the spot given that Firus has outskated him all season thus far.

Thanks for your corrections regarding mens ages. I still think Firus will be a solid top 10 and Canada's total will be 13 or less here meaning 3 JW spots. I don't think Firus will be in the top 3 countries though. A look at the JGP standings shows that the top skaters from USA, RUS , CHN and SWE finished ahead of him all with much higher scores ( at least 20 points higher over 2 JGPs this year ) . Also remember that Hanyu ( JPN and the current WJ champion ) is likely to return here ( he won't be going to senior worlds ). I fully expect Rogozine to medal here though and obtain the 14 JGP slots.

I also expect Rogozine to be on the senior GP next season.
 

valentine

Rinkside
Joined
Jul 30, 2010
For sure Andre Rogozine will be on the senior grand prix, he is having a stellar season. I agree Firus will be a top ten and Rogozine should medal.
 

skatingfan04

Final Flight
Joined
Sep 1, 2007
I'm really getting pumped up for nationals now :) Does anyone know when the entry lists will be posted on the Skate Canada site??
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
OK< so you didnt have officiall information about withdawall. Thank you!
I dont think they need to retun, if they will miss all this season - C-P will be on podium at this year WCh and what place could V-M take next season? I hope you all will be surprises at Nationals

C/P are no lock for a World medal this year, in fact it would be a bit of an upset if they do medal. They have no chance of beating Davis & White period. If Virtue & Moir return for Worlds in half decent shape they easily beat C/P too. Pechalat & Bourzat would have to make huge errors to lose to C/P at Worlds this year. That will probably be your podium at Worlds if V/M make it back in half decent shape. And Faiella & Scali could still recover and they dont even have to get back to 100% to beat C/P at this point. There are also other real threats to C/P- Bobrova & Soloviev, R/T, the Kerrs.
 

NorthernDancers

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
C/P are no lock for a World medal this year, in fact it would be a bit of an upset if they do medal. They have no chance of beating Davis & White period. If Virtue & Moir return for Worlds in half decent shape they easily beat C/P too. Pechalat & Bourzat would have to make huge errors to lose to C/P at Worlds this year. That will probably be your podium at Worlds if V/M make it back in half decent shape. And Faiella & Scali could still recover and they dont even have to get back to 100% to beat C/P at this point. There are also other real threats to C/P- Bobrova & Soloviev, R/T, the Kerrs.

I tend to agree. I'm not sure how C&P could finish on the podium this year, as much as their FD is interesting and a step forward for them. I think top 5 at worlds would be a great achievement and probably more realistic. I also think W&P could perhaps finish top 10 as well, since they have been pretty close to C&P all season - better in the SD, not as good in the FD.
 

Ravensque

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 31, 2009
I believe it's realistic to predict C&P to be in top 5 or 6, and for W&P to be in top 8-10 hopefully. I figure that's about the best that can be hoped for..........then again, ya nevah know! I hope V &M compete at Worlds, even if they come 2nd or 3rd because then Canada would retain 3 spots.
 
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