US Nationals Predictions | Page 2 | Golden Skate

US Nationals Predictions

CARA

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 16, 2009
Country
United-States
Hmmm... I'm surprised at some of these predictions...

Ladies - I think the top 4 is between Cziny, Flatt, Nagasu and Wagner. It could go any way. I'm not sure I understand the hype about Gao and Zawadski. I've seen both skate and I'm not that impressed. Sorry.

It's always informative to read other's reasoning behind predictions.
I don't know much about technical aspects of skating - one of the reasons why I enjoy reading/participating in this forum so I can learn. So my predictions have a lot to do with emotional/psychological aspects of skating - something that I know a little.

The reason why I placed Agnes the 4th is the fact that some "debutantes" tend to do better, e.g., Christina Gao's 5th placement at the last year's Nationals. Just like Alex Shibutani mentioned throughout this season, his team having done surprising well might have something to do with "having nothing to lose." In other words, no expectation, no pressure. Agnes appeared to have brought the same attitude to her Sr. GP debut.

Gao appeared to have the same attitude the last year at the Sr. Nationals; this year she seems to have feeling pressured.

Beyond that, I see none of the current crop of top US ladies having psychological fortitude that we see in true champions such as Michelle or Yuna. I think Rachael comes the closest, but her leg injury might complicate the picture.

Hence, the ladies' placement comes down to who skates "clean" without any clear frontrunner, IMHO.
 
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Trewyn

Medalist
Joined
Dec 10, 2008
There's indeed no clear frontrunner in Ladies... Rachael, Alissa, Mirai and Ashley have seperated themselves form the rest of the field but none of them is consistent. Rachael used to be quite consistent, but she's struggling now. If I'd have to rank them in rank of consistency it'd be
1. Rachael
2. Mirai
3. Ashley
4. Alissa

But based on recent competitions it would be

1. Alissa
2. Mirai
3. Ashley
4. Rachael

With Mirai and Ashley being really close, so the judges could go for either of them.

I'm quite surprised at how negative the predictions are for Ashley. I still have hope that she'll rock this competition..
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
I think Ashley's programs this year don't do much for her. But she has had a lot of time to prepare and nail them in peace without any hype, so that will be an advantage for her. I'm not counting her for a medal of any color. She's also not struggling with injuries, like Mirai and Rachael, especially Rachael. She lost training time at the beginning of the season not in the middle like poor Rachael did. So that's got to be another advantage for Ashley.
 

fairly4

Medalist
Joined
Oct 28, 2007
I agree their is no clear frontrunner for the ladies, and anything can happen. Alissa, Rachel, Mirai, Ashley, Gao, Agnes are all good decent skaters. but because competition is tough they all have to skate clean-fewest mistakes possible since it could determine the top 3.
my thinking is if alissa falls once, skates well she will win. 2nd is between rachel & miria. depending on how healed rachel is.
ashley,gao, agnes can breakthrough depending on skates.
Anything can happen with the ladies.

Men-
Jeremy, ADam, Brandon, Armin 4th
Pairs-i have no idea except maybe, yankowsas & couglin, denny & barrett, Evora &ladwig the top 3
my only sure bet is
Davis WHite for win in dance.
Shibs i think 2nd
chock zuerelin for third. or these two could switch.
 

CoyoteChris

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 4, 2004
OK, predictors, with Lysacek "officially" out of the nationals, except for the Gala, what are our odds of having three men on next year's World Team?
 

CARA

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 16, 2009
Country
United-States
I'm surprised at the almost unanimous agreement on the dance podium placement, especially the Shibs (silver) & C/Z (bronze).

I confess that I am partial to the Shibs. Still, those two teams are so evenly matched in their skill levels, strengths/weaknesses.

For instance, though the Shibs earned highter combined total GP series scores than C/Z, the difference between two teams are miniscule. The Shibs also made major mistakes during their SD performances on both GP meets; both the Shibs & C/Z earned bronze on their respective GP. Both teams have strong FDs.

I'm just curious what is it about the Shibs that allow many posters higher placement in relation to C/Z.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
There is no clear favorite in Ladies.

I'm just going to go based on recent history and that's to say the following:

- Rachel Flatt will NOT win the event.

- Czisny will do well for herself, get on the podium somewhere.

- There will be a surprise entrant among the top 6.

Note that this is based ONLY on recent history/trends and does NOT reflect my hopes for what will happen in Greensboro.
 

CARA

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 16, 2009
Country
United-States
OK, predictors, with Lysacek "officially" out of the nationals, except for the Gala, what are our odds of having three men on next year's World Team?

Oh, that's interesting. I'd say the odd of having three men are almost nil. Because:

1. If we go strictly with the last year's worlds placement (Jeremy 5th & Adam 6th), the US should still be able to retain 3 slots for the 2012 worlds. However, several prominent competitors w/drew from the last year's worlds (Stephen, Evan, Johnny, Evegeny, etc), and I don't expect that "lucky" at this year's world :disapp:

2. None of the top US skaters have had outstanding season so far, e.g., no US male skaters at the GPF;

3. Unlike Japan, the ranks of experienced/top males skaters had retired in the US. Hence, it may take 1-3 years to build up experienced/top US male skaters.
 

CoyoteChris

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 4, 2004
CARA, I pretty much agree with you, but anyone can have a good day and anyone can have a bad day. I think if Jeremy and Adam go to worlds this year and they are on, there is a 20 percent chance that they could make say 6th and 7th. Is 13 is the magic number?

3 months ago, How much money would any of us have bet that Alissa would win the GP Final?

At nationals, I just hope Rach and Mirai are healthy and Alissa skates from the heart. Let Ashley skate clean too like I hope for them all and let the best skater win.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
There is no clear favorite in Ladies.

I'm just going to go based on recent history and that's to say the following:

- Rachel Flatt will NOT win the event.

- Czisny will do well for herself, get on the podium somewhere.

- There will be a surprise entrant among the top 6.

Note that this is based ONLY on recent history/trends and does NOT reflect my hopes for what will happen in Greensboro.

Unless we have a repeat of 2008 and the podium is a complete surprised and comprised entirely up and comers, something like Gao, Zawadzki, Siraj, and Lam.
 

CARA

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 16, 2009
Country
United-States
CARA, I pretty much agree with you, but anyone can have a good day and anyone can have a bad day. I think if Jeremy and Adam go to worlds this year and they are on, there is a 20 percent chance that they could make say 6th and 7th. Is 13 is the magic number?

I believe 13 is the magic number. And I totally agree that anyone can have a good day.

I dearly wish three male US representatives and two female representatives have "a phenomenally on two days" and skate their heart out! I really want to see 3 slots for both men's and ladys'.

But that's just it! The fact that I have to pray for an "on day" indicates the state of single skating in the US. :think:
 
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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Oh, that's interesting. I'd say the odd of having three men are almost nil. Because:

1. If we go strictly with the last year's worlds placement (Jeremy 5th & Adam 6th), the US should still be able to retain 3 slots for the 2012 worlds. However, several prominent competitors w/drew from the last year's worlds (Stephen, Evan, Johnny, Evegeny, etc), and I don't expect that "lucky" at this year's world :disapp:

2. None of the top US skaters have had outstanding season so far, e.g., no US male skaters at the GPF;

3. Unlike Japan, the ranks of experienced/top males skaters had retired in the US. Hence, it may take 1-3 years to build up experienced/top US male skaters.

Jeremy did not do that bad at GP, though he did not skate his best. He medeled at both his events (2nd and 3rd). Last year he was 1st and 5th. What it came down to this year is that Amodio got a silver and hometown boost at TEB with scoring and got enough points to win the tiebreaker (and get into the final). That FS, as entertaining as it did not merit 153 points, when Jeremy's near clean program at NHK only got 143 (and not to mention that Amodio should have not beaten him in the FS either with a near equal score). I know you can't compare competitions, but still...you kinda have to here when that is what the tiebreaker is.

Still I think Jeremy, when he's on (or even just slightly off) can easily beat Verner and Amodio. I think it would be more challenging to beat the 3 Japanese men and Chan. But I think if he shows his magic, he could definitely give all four of them a run for his money. So I think the worse he could do honestly is 7th, which would make it tough to keep 3 spots. But the odds are more in his favor to finish 6th or even on the podium.

Mroz also lost the tiebreaker to Amodio, but like him and Jeremy, also had a silver and bronze in GP, so I can't say he did that bad either. I think if he's clean, he can manage a 7th place finish at Worlds.

Rippon was pretty terrible at Skate America, but I can't write him off either to do his part. He did well at Worlds last year, so maybe he'll peak there if he makes the team.

So I say the odds are more like 50/50 depending on who we send.

But that's just it! The fact that I have to pray for an "on day" indicates the state of single skating in the US.

I think you're being a bit pessimistic. Despite not having any U.S. men make the GPF, the alternatives were all made out of U.S. Men. In addition a U.S. man medeled in all the GP events. NHK (Abbott - Silver); Skate Canada (Rippon- bronze) COC (Mroz -Silver) COR (Abbott - Bronze) Skate America (Mahbanoozadeh - Bronze) Trophee Eric Bompard (Mroz - Bronze).

Japan is the only other country whose skaters managed the same feat. Of course Japan one ups with having three skaters make the GPF Final. Oh yeah, and let's not forget that Richard Dornbush won the GPF Final in the juniors level.

Point is, is that the GP actually showed how deep the U.S. men's field is. Canada's is not far behind, but even Reynolds with all his quads could not break through. I think whatever three men will send, will be fighting for top 10 spots.
 
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CARA

Final Flight
Joined
Oct 16, 2009
Country
United-States
Mrs. P:
Good to see the detailed analysis like yours. After reading it, I must agree that I am a bit too pessimistic.:agree:
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Mrs. P:
Good to see the detailed analysis like yours. After reading it, I must agree that I am a bit too pessimistic.:agree:

You're welcome! Glad to have the discussion.

The women weren't too bad either with two making the final and two ending up as alternates. Cup of China was the only event where a U.S. woman did not medal ( Nagasu would've if she didn't do that invalid 2A combo). But then two women medaled at TEB (Flatt and Czisny) so as far as number of medals, the women are even with the men at six. Again only Japan did better by having three woman make the final.

However whether the 2 us women can get two spots is more uncertain with Yuna coming back and Mao starting to get back into peak form again.
 
Joined
Jul 11, 2003
Mrs.P - Doesn't the magic number for Worlds change to 18 if there are 3 skaters. 13 is fine for two skaters but if 3 are entered, the 3 must total 18 as I understand it. So the Team selected by the USFS must be carefully chosen among the Men. However, the US Nats' results will select the team, I suppose.

I would love to see Armin do another comp before Nats just to see if his GP was just a one time thing. If it wasn't I would replace Adam for Armin who has more appeal to the audience. Jeremy, Brandon, and Armin - 3 different styles would suit me as the Nats' results.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
Mrs.P - Doesn't the magic number for Worlds change to 18 if there are 3 skaters. 13 is fine for two skaters but if 3 are entered, the 3 must total 18 as I understand it. So the Team selected by the USFS must be carefully chosen among the Men. However, the US Nats' results will select the team, I suppose.


No, you are thinking of the "if one of your skaters finished below 18, they have to skate the qualifying round" rule. If there are three skaters and two finish 2+11 and the third 20th, there will be three skaters next year, but the one with the lowest world standing when the world team is chosen will have to skate the qualifying round. If the three skaters are 2, 11, and 15, then three skaters and all are automatically in
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Jeremy did not do that bad at GP, though he did not skate his best. He medeled at both his events (2nd and 3rd). Last year he was 1st and 5th. What it came down to this year is that Amodio got a silver and hometown boost at TEB with scoring and got enough points to win the tiebreaker (and get into the final). That FS, as entertaining as it did not merit 153 points, when Jeremy's near clean program at NHK only got 143 (and not to mention that Amodio should have not beaten him in the FS either with a near equal score). I know you can't compare competitions, but still...you kinda have to here when that is what the tiebreaker is.

Still I think Jeremy, when he's on (or even just slightly off) can easily beat Verner and Amodio. I think it would be more challenging to beat the 3 Japanese men and Chan. But I think if he shows his magic, he could definitely give all four of them a run for his money. So I think the worse he could do honestly is 7th, which would make it tough to keep 3 spots. But the odds are more in his favor to finish 6th or even on the podium.

Amodio skated way better than Jeremy this season, period. And I know some people don't like his programs, but I do think his scores were deserved just due to the quality of his jumps - Amodio has strong, powerful jumps that often look textbook perfect. At NHK Jeremy SINGLED two axels, one of which was intended to be a 3a, and Amodio was almost clean, so I really don't take issue with the fact that Amodio beat Jeremy by less than a point in that segment.

As for Jeremy's odds of beating Amodio, Verner, Joubert, I think a lot will depend on Europeans. For example, if Tomas comes into worlds as European Champion, he may be given a PCS boost and I could definitely see him beating Jeremy if he skates well, the same goes for Joubert and maybe even Amodio if one of them wins. On the other hand, if say Joubert or Verner is 3rd at Euros or OTP, then Jeremy's odds of beating them at Worlds are better, especially if he comes in as US champion.

But I mean in 2009, Joubert and Verner both made mistakes at Worlds and still finished well ahead of Jeremy, 3rd and 4th versus 11th, and that was the season Jeremy won the GPF and US nationals and Tomas was 6th at Europeans. I always feel like the judges want a European up in the standings at Worlds, and this season the top Europeans appear to be Verner, Amodio, and Joubert. I wouldn't count them out.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Amodio skated way better than Jeremy this season, period. And I know some people don't like his programs, but I do think his scores were deserved just due to the quality of his jumps - Amodio has strong, powerful jumps that often look textbook perfect. At NHK Jeremy SINGLED two axels, one of which was intended to be a 3a, and Amodio was almost clean, so I really don't take issue with the fact that Amodio beat Jeremy by less than a point in that segment.

As for Jeremy's odds of beating Amodio, Verner, Joubert, I think a lot will depend on Europeans. For example, if Tomas comes into worlds as European Champion, he may be given a PCS boost and I could definitely see him beating Jeremy if he skates well, the same goes for Joubert and maybe even Amodio if one of them wins. On the other hand, if say Joubert or Verner is 3rd at Euros or OTP, then Jeremy's odds of beating them at Worlds are better, especially if he comes in as US champion.

But I mean in 2009, Joubert and Verner both made mistakes at Worlds and still finished well ahead of Jeremy, 3rd and 4th versus 11th, and that was the season Jeremy won the GPF and US nationals and Tomas was 6th at Europeans. I always feel like the judges want a European up in the standings at Worlds, and this season the top Europeans appear to be Verner, Amodio, and Joubert. I wouldn't count them out.

It's also worth noting that Amodio also singled his double Axel, so he wasn't completely clean either. That said, yes Florent has great jumps and footwork, but he clearly does not have the choreo and transition that Jeremy does. I saw a video that counts that Amodio spends 40 seconds of his program dancing in place...in a 4 minute program...that makes a huge different in your stammia! I think Jeremy is hugely underscored in PCS. His PCS should be in the league of Chan and Dai not hovering in the 70s.

I'm definitely not counting Verner, Amodio and Joubert out, but I don't think we've seen the best of Jeremy either. You have to cosider that in 2009 Jeremy totally bombed to 11th, not that politics kept him down. Again it's one of those headcase things-- Jeremy definitely needs to prove he is among the best --but he has the tools to do it.

I would also say you shouldn't count whoever is USA 2 or 3. I think any combination of Bradley, Rippon, Armin, Mroz and even Dornbush could totally show up and shine. The men didn't need Lysacek last year to win three spots and I hope they will prove they don't need him to get 3 spots for 2012.
 
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